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BTC $77,899.67 +4.89%
ETH $2,446.08 +5.29%
BNB $643.23 +3.53%
XRP $1.50 +5.61%
SOL $89.99 +4.50%
TRX $0.3247 -0.64%
DOGE $0.1009 +5.00%
ADA $0.2655 +6.18%
BCH $459.99 +4.74%
LINK $9.77 +5.28%
HYPE $45.11 +1.20%
AAVE $116.20 +8.71%
SUI $1.03 +6.00%
XLM $0.1744 +8.19%
ZEC $344.69 +2.57%

dove

Dovey Wan: The circle in Hong Kong is very small, I haven't heard of any institution getting into trouble

Dovey Wan, founding partner of Primitive Ventures, posted on X regarding the rumor that "the market drop may be due to a Hong Kong hedge fund's liquidation from IBIT options trading." Being in the "Hong Kong fund" circle in Asia, I have to share a contrary opinion.About taxes: Hong Kong does not have capital gains tax (Cap Gains) at all, so the so-called "tax optimization harvesting" perspective is basically viewed from the American standpoint, which does not apply to us.About the rumors: We are conducting due diligence (DD) on Hong Kong's largest Bitcoin options strategy fund. From their performance in recent months and our communications with them, there has been no drama since October 11. The Hong Kong circle is small, and everyone loves gossip; if something really happened, it would be impossible to keep it under wraps. For example, when the Hong Kong-based 3AC-related market maker Taipingshan faced issues, we knew about it almost the next day.About capital flows: Long before the in-kind redemption mechanism appeared, many old-school Bitcoin whales in Asia had already swapped their assets one way into compliant channels like IBIT (at that time, only Galaxy could do this; those who understand know). This was mainly done to: ensure safer custody; reduce operational and counterparty risks; facilitate collateral flow within the traditional financial (TradFi) system; and allow for cleaner transitions to other traditional financial assets.About trading habits: Starting from the second half of 2025, Bitcoin trading activity will structurally lean more towards U.S. stock trading hours (especially the early morning session when New York opens), and the spot selling pressure across major exchanges reflects this. In recent days, Binance has also seen significant spot selling pressure during these times, which is actually a chain reaction caused by ETF redemptions.Additionally, why would a Bitcoin fund "blow up" just because of writing options? Unless they are naked shorting or engaging in leveraged basis trades, resulting in liquidation due to an unexpected widening of the price difference between IBIT and spot. Therefore, it is likely that this is a traditional financial (TradFi) fund with a cross-margin mechanism, rather than a purely "old-school Bitcoin believer" fund.

Next week's macro outlook: Fed rate cut is a done deal, the hawk-dove debate is in the spotlight

According to Jinshi News, the last Federal Reserve meeting of the year will take place next week, with the interest rate decision announced at 3:00 AM (UTC+8) on Thursday, followed by a monetary policy press conference by Fed Chairman Powell at 3:30 AM (UTC+8).According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next week is 84%. The upcoming Fed meeting is expected to be one of the most controversial in recent years, with investors focusing on the divergence among policymakers regarding the prospects for rate cuts, as well as signals from Fed Chairman Powell about the future direction of policy. Among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), 5 have expressed opposition or skepticism towards further easing of monetary policy, while 3 members of the board support a rate cut. Since 2019, there has not been a meeting where three or more dissenting votes were cast, and the divisions have drawn close attention to the dissenters. Important macro data and events are as follows:Tuesday:The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision, and RBA Governor Lowe holds a monetary policy press conference;Wednesday:U.S. third-quarter labor cost index quarter-on-quarter; Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision;Thursday:The Fed FOMC announces its interest rate decision and economic projections summary, and Fed Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference;U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6;Friday:The Fed releases data on U.S. household financial health from the Q3 2025 flow of funds report;2026 FOMC voter, Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaks on economic outlook;2026 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks;Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a moderator dialogue before the Chicago Fed's 39th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium.Market Closure Reminder: On Wednesday, the New York Stock Exchange will close early at 2:00 AM Beijing time; on Thursday, U.S. stocks, stock markets in several European countries, South Korean stocks, and Australian stocks will be closed. Trading in precious metals, U.S. oil, foreign exchange, and stock index futures contracts under the CME, as well as Brent crude oil futures contracts under the ICE, will be suspended all day.

Jupiter Co-founder: Expected to provide a Jupnet technology preview and detailed technical overview in early April

ChainCatcher news, Jupiter co-founder Meow posted on the X platform stating that Jupnet is a full-chain network under construction, aimed at achieving the goal of "aggregating everything." Jupiter needs infrastructure to connect billions of people and trillions of tokens, therefore it requires:A single source of truth across chains;A full-chain ledger;A fully on-chain identity system.Blockchain has solved the problem of a single source of truth within a blockchain, but has not addressed the issue of a single source of truth across chains. Therefore, a completely new architecture is needed to achieve a single source of truth across chains, which is why DOVE is proposed: a decentralized verification and execution oracle. By utilizing the mentioned decentralized single source of truth, it will be able to host a decentralized full-chain ledger, including achieving dynamic finality, by addressing the speed/finality trade-off through value consideration.Finally, a fully on-chain identity system will be able to support all traditional authentication methods, including social logins and keys, as well as the ability to generate recovery keys when users need them. There are still many technical issues and important design challenges to overcome.We expect to provide a technical preview and detailed technical overview in early April.
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