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Bitwise: Bitcoin's implied volatility has dropped to a three-year low, and long-term holders continue to distribute chips

Bitwise released a report indicating that Bitcoin is currently holding resiliently around $82,000, a price level close to the spot ETF holding cost. Key support levels below include the short-term holder cost price of approximately $74,800 and the real market average of about $77,600. The former can serve as a reference for judging the short-term market direction, while the latter corresponds to the price level at which half of the invested capital in the market is in profit or loss. The price range formed by these two points may become the dividing line between bulls and bears.The trading range for Bitcoin over the past 30 days and 60 days has narrowed to 1.8% and 3.0%, respectively, with the implied volatility at-the-money for each term also approaching the lower end of the distribution range over the past three years. Among them, the 3-month and 6-month implied volatility are at the 0.8 and 0.2 percentiles of historical distribution, indicating that the market's pricing for future volatility has dropped to extremely low levels.So far this week, net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have reached $1.074 billion, rising in sync with the cumulative trading volume of the spot market, providing support for Bitcoin prices and offsetting some macro pressures. However, realized profits in the market have also increased, particularly among long-term holders. Meanwhile, the net position change indicator for long-term holders is negative, suggesting they may be in a distribution phase, which could be one reason for the ongoing consolidation of Bitcoin prices.

Bitwise and Hyperliquid request the SEC to amend cryptocurrency regulations: focusing on token classification, airdrops, and secondary market trading

The asset management company Bitwise Asset Management and the Hyperliquid Policy Center submitted a comment letter to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), requesting modifications to the proposed cryptocurrency rules to clarify token classification, airdrops, and secondary market trading rules. The SEC's proposed Regulation Crypto Assets would establish exemptions for eligible cryptocurrency financing and provide a conditional safe harbor for tokens related to investment contracts.Bitwise requested clarification on the standards for investment managers to determine whether tokens are subject to securities laws. The Hyperliquid Policy Center called for an expansion of the safe harbor scope and clarification of the rules for airdrops and token buybacks that reward network participants. The organization also requested that the SEC clarify whether unregistered intermediaries can facilitate token trading and whether tokens can be freely traded through on-chain protocols. Former SEC enforcement official John Reed Stark and Duke University finance scholar Lee Reiners called for the proposal to be withdrawn, arguing that it exceeds the SEC's statutory authority and undermines investor protection. The SEC will decide to amend, adopt, or withdraw the rules after the public comment period ends, and the final rules must be voted on by the commission before taking effect.

JPMorgan Chase CEO: The U.S. economy is still in a "good time," but is prepared for a 40% drop in the stock market

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stated in an exclusive interview with The Wall Street Journal that the current state of the U.S. economy is strong, with significant growth in corporate profits, a low unemployment rate, and overall low leverage for businesses and consumers. He described this as a good time. Dimon also pointed out that several potential risks are accumulating beneath the surface, including persistent inflation that has lasted for five years, large fiscal deficits, and geopolitical uncertainties such as overseas wars.He emphasized that predicting the specific timing and triggers of an economic downturn is extremely difficult, as the eventual recession is often caused by a combination of factors that cannot be accurately assessed at present. When discussing how banks should respond, Dimon stated that JPMorgan Chase conducts extremely in-depth analyses of various risks to ensure that the bank can withstand shocks whether interest rates rise or fall, and whether inflation or stagflation occurs, while continuing to serve clients during difficult times. He mentioned that the bank is prepared for extreme scenarios such as a 40% drop in the stock market and a two to three times widening of bond credit spreads, rather than trying to guess when these scenarios will happen. The core principle is to be well-prepared to continuously support businesses and communities in various environments.

Gate Gold Dog launches dual activities: Trade Robinhood chain tokens to draw mystery boxes, SOL chain trading competition unlocks up to 50,000 USDT airdrop

According to the official announcement, Gate Doge (Trenches) will hold the 67th Hot Coin Competition from October 19, 16:00 to October 22, 16:00 (UTC+8). After registering, users can trade all Robinhood chain tokens in the Doge area to earn chances for a blind box lottery based on their cumulative trading volume, sharing a total airdrop reward of 30,000 USDT.Users who did not register with an invitation code can earn 1 regular blind box lottery chance for every cumulative trade of 200 USDT, while users who registered with an invitation code can earn 1 premium blind box lottery chance for every cumulative trade of 500 USDT. Both types of users can earn a maximum of 12 lottery chances during the event, with a winning rate of 100%.At the same time, the Gate Doge SOL chain peak trading competition will be held from October 19, 18:00 to November 2, 16:00 (UTC+8). Users who register and trade SOL chain tokens in the Doge area can unlock an airdrop prize pool worth up to 50,000 USDT. Once the effective cumulative trading volume of all registered users reaches a certain threshold, the corresponding tier prize pool will be unlocked, based on the highest tier reached at the end of the event.In addition, users with an effective cumulative trading volume of 40,000 USDT can participate in the trading ranking, with the top 100 qualifying users receiving rewards, and the champion can win an airdrop worth up to 10,000 USDT.

DeepSeek's new model adds to financing concerns, Asian chip stocks drop over 2%

According to Bloomberg, Asian semiconductor stocks continued to weaken on Monday. The Bloomberg Asia Chip Index fell more than 2%, reaching its lowest level since July, with TSMC, SK Hynix, and Advantest being the main drags. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index recorded its largest weekly decline since October 2008 last week, dropping more than 3% at one point on Monday before recovering some ground; the Nikkei 225 index fell 2.3% at one point, and the Taiwan Weighted Index dropped 2%.Market concerns stem from two aspects. First, the pressure on financing for AI infrastructure in the United States continues to ferment, with CoreWeave's financing capabilities being questioned and the IPO expectations for Anthropic and Nscale cooling. Second, Chinese AI company DeepSeek released a new model update over the weekend, claiming faster operation speeds and lower resource consumption, raising concerns about the potential decrease in storage capacity required for AI models and the possible impact on chip demand.Kang DaeKwun, CEO of Life Asset Management, stated that the market uncertainty is too high, making it difficult to determine when the Korean stock market will bottom out. Financing for U.S. corporate AI projects is one of the main risks, and the profitability of Korean chip companies still heavily relies on continuous investment in AI infrastructure by U.S. companies. This week, the earnings reports from tech giants like Meta and Tesla will be an important window to observe the growth momentum of AI capital expenditures.

Waller refused to predict the remaining interest rate decisions for the year, with the probability of an interest rate hike in October dropping to about 17%

During the IMF meeting in Bangkok, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh stated that he would not predict the outcomes of the remaining two interest rate meetings this year and was unwilling to disclose potential actions in advance. He said, "This is a new chapter for the Federal Reserve; we no longer do this." Regarding the recent signals from colleagues indicating "no urgency to raise interest rates this month," he neither explicitly supported nor refuted them. Walsh reiterated that the Federal Reserve will achieve price stability and noted that the global economy has largely aligned with central bank expectations since the interest rate hike in September, while describing the recent actions of various central banks as a synchronized tightening of monetary policy in most regions of the world.In September, the Federal Reserve unanimously raised interest rates by 25 basis points, increasing the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4%. At that time, most officials expected at least one more rate hike this year. Despite the core CPI rising by 0.33% month-on-month in September, marking a strong increase for the second consecutive month, and the latest producer price data also being robust, Walsh hardly mentioned this week's inflation report and did not significantly attempt to change market expectations for the October meeting. Reports indicated that during his speech, the dollar weakened, and market bets on an interest rate hike in October dropped from about 30% to around 17%.Additionally, Walsh believes that the U.S. is experiencing significant investment growth and holds an optimistic view on economic resilience and the productivity boost brought by AI, but he warned that the development path will be "very bumpy," and the short-term impact of AI on employment remains unclear. DBS Bank macro strategist Wei Liang Chang stated that Walsh reiterated that artificial intelligence will improve productivity in the medium term, which may help ease inflation expectations and alleviate concerns about the Federal Reserve's consecutive rate hikes. Saxo Markets Chief Investment Strategist Charu Chanana noted that Walsh's refusal to commit to another rate hike led to some bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes falling flat, and related comments did not help the dollar following the release of strong inflation data.
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