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According to unfolded citing ARK data, the one-year actual volatility of Bitcoin was close to 42% at the end of the second quarter. Despite the weak price, it is still near multi-year lows.This indicates that the asset is maturing or that volatility is being suppressed; low volatility typically signals a surge in volatility after a catalyst appears.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, DEXE reached an all-time high of $49.432 on July 12, began to decline on July 13, and on July 21, the maximum single-day drop reached 88%, with the price falling from $46.93 to $5.648; within 11 days, the decline reached 96.8%, with the price dropping from $49.423 to $1.56.Ai Yi stated that the large capital flows on-chain are primarily from CEX hot wallets, and no anomalies were found except for Ceffu. The custody platform Ceffu has cumulatively transferred 797,900 DEXE to Binance since July 13, divided into 6 transactions, with a total value of $6.15 million, making it the only entity outside of exchanges to transfer over a million dollars in this token.Ai Yi mentioned that due to the Ceffu MirrorX mechanism, DEXE held in Ceffu will generate a 1:1 mirrored position on the exchange, and on-chain asset transfers will be automatically settled afterward; if this mechanism is used for pre-trading, the 797,900 DEXE would correspond to an actual value of $39.44 million. Ai Yi further stated that public information does not show that the DEXE project party has entrusted the tokens to Ceffu, with most tokens stored in the DAO treasury and team-related lock-up contracts; in the official DEXE partnership list, Falcon has supported DEXE as collateral assets for the platform, and Falcon's asset custody institution includes Ceffu, and Falcon Finance is associated with DWF Labs, which is also on the DEXE partner list. Ai Yi stated that the above conclusions are drawn based on on-chain data and public clues, and does not rule out the possibility of related situations involving the project party or other market makers.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the fund flow of spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past 30 days has seen a net outflow of approximately $2.1 billion, and the new demand from Strategy and other Bitcoin treasury companies has been close to zero for several weeks.He estimates that the monthly demand from treasury companies reached about $6.6 billion in August 2025, when BTC was around $115,000, while the current BTC is about $65,000, and the related demand has basically disappeared.

According to Gate market data, U.S. stocks closed lower on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average initially down 0.01%, the S&P 500 index down 0.14%, and the Nasdaq down 0.57%. SpaceX (SPCX.O) fell 6.7%, hitting a new closing low. Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 2.3%, SK Hynix (SKHY.O) fell 3.8%, Supermicro (SMCI.O) rose nearly 20%, and Dell (DELL.N) rose 9%.The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 1.8%, with NetEase (NTES.O) falling over 6%.

According to Jinshi reports, World Bank Chief Economist Gill stated that the global economy is only "a few months" away from the worst-case scenario, at which point global growth will slow to 1.3%, and inflation is expected to rise to 4.5%.

According to the latest ranking of stock derivatives exchanges released by RootData, Binance, MEXC, and Bybit are in the top three. The list is based on comprehensive scoring of exchanges supporting stock derivatives trading, considering dimensions such as trading volume, open interest, spreads, depth, trading costs, and data collectability. Among them:Binance scored 92, supports 136 contracts, has an open interest of approximately $2.539 billion, a 24h trading volume of approximately $15.765 billion, and a funding rate of +0.0002%.MEXC scored 91.6, supports 46 contracts, has an open interest of approximately $93.515 million, a 24h trading volume of approximately $28.4 million, and a funding rate of -0.0002%.Bybit scored 91.4, supports 122 contracts, has an open interest of approximately $91.865 million, a 24h trading volume of approximately $666 million, and a funding rate of +0.0006%.Compared to the same period last week, Bitget dropped from second to fourth place, and OKX dropped from third to sixth place.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin's current MVRV percentile is around the 5th percentile—meaning that historically, 95% of the time, this metric has been higher than it is now. This indicates that the Bitcoin price is currently in a very low range relative to its historical levels. MVRV is an indicator that measures the relationship between Bitcoin's market capitalization and its "realized value" (the price at which each BTC last moved).The method used by Darkfost does not simply look at raw values but ranks the current MVRV within historical data to assess the current price's relative position in history. Previously, in February, when BTC fell below $60,000, this metric dropped below 10%, and it has entered a similar range again since June. Historical data shows that these periods often correspond to long-term bottom ranges.

On July 20, WEEX Exchange announced that it has launched zero-fee trading for Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) and is offering a 50,000 USDT airdrop reward. Event duration: 7/20 17:00 - 7/27 17:00 (UTC+8)

Analyst Noname tweeted that Bitcoin will not hit bottom this quarter. Sideways fluctuations indicate indecision; at this price level, indecision often leads to a downward breakout first, followed by an upward breakout. At least one more quarter is needed for the market to clarify.His predictions for the trend in 2026 are as follows: July: False stability. Bear market trap rebound. The market reshuffles and eliminates the indecisive. August: The real crash begins. First test of the $50,000 area. September: Continued pressure. W-shaped bottom structure begins to form. October: The real bottom. Accumulation area. Personally, I will adopt an aggressive strategy at this stage. November: Signs of recovery appear, and the bottom rebound begins. December: The first breakthrough of the $100,000 mark since the bear market began.

According to Jinshi reports, as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran escalates over the weekend, the market bets that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to curb inflation, leading to a decline in gold prices. Following a drop of more than 2% last week, gold is currently trading around $3,995 per ounce.Escalating hostilities in the Middle East, including an attack on a key oil facility in Kuwait, have caused oil prices to soar. Tehran has stated that the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran is effectively null and void, intensifying concerns about potential severe disruptions to critical energy supplies.

According to Jinshi reports, the Iranian Fars News Agency quoted sources on the 19th stating that the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to zero, and as long as the United States continues its provocative actions, the strait will remain closed.Currently, no vessels are passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and any attempts to cross the strait will be met with Iranian retaliation.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin bear market has lasted for about 9 months, affecting both short-term and long-term holders. The cost basis of short-term holders has fallen below that of long-term holders and has been confirmed for 3 days, triggering a "bear market nearing its end" signal. This indicator excludes BTC held for more than 7 years when calculating the cost basis of long-term holders to more accurately reflect the economically active long-term positions.Darkfost emphasized that this signal does not mean the bear market is immediately over, nor does it indicate that the market bottom has been established; rather, it suggests that the market may be entering the final phase of the bear market, during which adopting a dollar-cost averaging strategy may be more reasonable. He stated that if the cost basis of short-term holders subsequently breaks back above the cost basis of long-term holders, it can be seen as a confirmation signal for the beginning of a bull market phase and can serve as a reference for ending dollar-cost averaging. Currently, the cost basis of short-term holders has fallen from $112,500 to $69,000.

According to South Korean media Digital Asset, the total trading volume of the top 5 digital asset exchanges in South Korea dropped to approximately 8.06 trillion won from 2 PM on July 9 to 2 PM on July 16, further declining from the previous week and reaching the lowest level in nearly 3 years and 2 months.Data shows that the weekly trading volume of the top 5 exchanges in South Korea has been declining for several weeks, dropping from 17.7 trillion won from June 5 to June 12, to 15.4 trillion won, 14.6 trillion won, 13.4 trillion won, and 9.97 trillion won, with the latest week further falling to 8.06 trillion won, the lowest since 8.44 trillion won recorded from May 11 to May 18, 2023.In terms of exchange market share, the rankings have not changed, with Upbit continuing to hold the top position at 63.57%, but down 0.63 percentage points from the previous week; Bithumb rose to 29.18%, Coinone rose to 6.41%, while Korbit and Gopax accounted for 0.76% and 0.07%, respectively.

According to The Defiant, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has changed his X platform avatar to a newly purchased CryptoPunk, after which the meme coin BRIAN, driven by the change in his avatar, significantly retraced. In the past 24 hours, the market capitalization of this token has dropped by about 86%, falling to approximately $1.5 million; during the same period, its trading volume in about 30 Uniswap liquidity pools was approximately $13.2 million, with total liquidity around $561,000.The report pointed out that Brian Armstrong had changed his X avatar to the "Coinbase Man" image corresponding to BRIAN on July 16, and posted "New profile photo - who dis," which the market initially interpreted as a signal of interest in the token, driving BRIAN to rise rapidly. The report emphasized that BRIAN is a community-created token, and Brian Armstrong is not the issuer and has not claimed any official association with it.

Glassnode data shows that the sentiment in the BTC options market is gradually turning positive. As prices rebound, the BTC implied volatility index DVOL has decreased from 48 to 40, indicating that the panic premium accumulated in June is partially retreating. However, the current volatility is still higher than the May low, suggesting that while market uncertainty has eased, it has not completely dissipated.Meanwhile, the BTC options open interest Put/Call ratio has dropped to about 0.59, reaching a six-month low, indicating that traders are significantly reducing downside hedging and re-establishing bullish exposure. Glassnode believes that this change reflects a constructive improvement in options market sentiment.From the position structure, BTC is currently hovering around $63,000, still below the dense negative gamma range of $68,000 to $70,000. If the price further enters this range, it may trigger stronger pro-cyclical market maker hedging behavior and amplify market volatility.

According to Cointelegraph, renowned trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt posted that the daily chart of Nasdaq 100 mini futures (NQ) may form a "diamond" pattern, or may have already formed a market top.In addition, Peter Brandt recently predicted in an interview that Bitcoin might first rebound by $10,000, then drop to a high of $40,000, and form a bottom in early October 2026.Brandt issued a warning based on Bitcoin's historical cycle patterns, pointing out that Bitcoin may experience a false breakout, with the current Bitcoin price fluctuating around $60,000, facing short-term downside risks. Brandt also emphasized his long-term optimism for Bitcoin, expecting the coin price to reach between $300,000 and $500,000 by 2029.

On July 17, WEEX announced that zero-fee trading for PYTH has now started, and airdrop rewards of 50,000 USDT are being offered. Activity period: 7/17 17:00 - 7/24 17:00 (UTC+8).During the event, both new and existing users can receive a contract bonus of 1 USDT daily for a PYTH spot trading volume of ≥ 50 U each day; inviting friends to participate in this event, an individual can earn up to 1,000 USDT in rewards.

According to the Dune dashboard, competition among token launch platforms on the Robinhood Chain is intensifying. On July 16, the total number of new tokens added across the entire chain reached 42,709, with pons.family leading at 11,547 tokens, followed closely by flap.sh with 9,935 tokens, and hood.fun launching 6,471 tokens.In terms of trading volume, as of July 15, noxa.fun held a 43.0% market share among launch platforms on the Robinhood Chain, followed by pons.family at 37.4%, flap.sh at 5.8%, and clanker.world and bankr.bot at 3.3% and 2.3%, respectively.From the current data, the launch platforms on the Robinhood Chain are forming a pattern where "pons.family leads in the number of tokens launched, and noxa.fun dominates in trading volume."

WEEX Exchange Announcement: ONDO zero-fee trading is now open, and airdrop rewards of 50,000 USDT are being offered. Event time: 7/16 17:00 - 7/23 17:00 (UTC+8).

CoinGecko officially released the "Q2 2026 Cryptocurrency Industry Report." The report shows that the global cryptocurrency market has declined for the third consecutive quarter, with the total cryptocurrency market capitalization dropping 12.6% (approximately $304.8 billion) in Q2, falling to $2.1 trillion, the lowest level since September 2024. During this period, major assets Bitcoin and Ethereum fell 14.2% and 25.4% respectively, underperforming the US stock market, while Hyperliquid (HYPE) managed to break into the top ten by market capitalization against the trend.In terms of capital flow and trading platform performance, the total market capitalization of stablecoins decreased by 1.6% to $30.51 billion, marking the first contraction since Q3 2023, with USDT's market share slightly rising to 60%. The spot trading volume of centralized exchanges (CEX) plummeted by 27.9% to $1.95 trillion in Q2, with Binance maintaining its dominance at 38.7% market share; in contrast, perpetual contract (Perps) trading showed stronger resilience, only declining 10.0% to $12.7 trillion.Compared to the overall market's weakness, specific niche segments experienced explosive growth in Q2. Driven by major sporting events, the trading volume of prediction markets significantly increased by 48.7%, reaching $113.8 billion, with Kalshi expanding its lead over Polymarket with a 58.9% quarterly market share. Additionally, in the tokenized collectibles sector, Collector Crypt performed impressively, capturing 62.8% of the trading volume share in June, surpassing Courtyard to become the absolute leader in this field.