BTC $64,100.65 -1.02%
ETH $1,876.75 -2.25%
BNB $575.87 -0.81%
XRP $1.09 -1.61%
SOL $75.89 -1.93%
TRX $0.3231 -0.34%
DOGE $0.0730 -1.23%
ADA $0.1630 -0.88%
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LINK $8.43 -1.19%
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AAVE $92.13 -4.38%
SUI $0.7500 -0.35%
XLM $0.1900 +0.34%
ZEC $540.38 -6.23%
BTC $64,100.65 -1.02%
ETH $1,876.75 -2.25%
BNB $575.87 -0.81%
XRP $1.09 -1.61%
SOL $75.89 -1.93%
TRX $0.3231 -0.34%
DOGE $0.0730 -1.23%
ADA $0.1630 -0.88%
BCH $222.41 -1.69%
LINK $8.43 -1.19%
HYPE $62.35 -6.94%
AAVE $92.13 -4.38%
SUI $0.7500 -0.35%
XLM $0.1900 +0.34%
ZEC $540.38 -6.23%

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Analysis: Bitcoin rebounds but spot trading volume is rapidly shrinking, and the risk of long squeeze in derivatives is accumulating

Crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that during Bitcoin's rebound from $58,000 to nearly $64,000, the relative trading volume of spot transactions quickly declined. A rebound lacking support from spot demand is difficult to establish a basis for a trend reversal and often represents merely a sentiment-driven recovery, necessitating attention to the sustainability of the rebound.On the positive side, the USDC/USDT exchange rate fell from 1.001 to 1.0006, indicating that the intention to exit is weakening and trading intentions are recovering. Although mainstream stablecoins on trading platforms are still in a state of net outflow, the outflow magnitude continues to narrow, and the marginal improvement in funding pressure supports the continuation of the rebound. However, the weakening of spot driving forces means that the weight of derivatives is relatively increasing. The 7-day average of perpetual contract long premiums has continuously risen to $160,000/hour, indicating that Taker buying pressure is persistently pushing perpetual prices above spot prices; although open interest has decreased, it remains significantly higher than levels seen in February of this year. Currently, the long premium is still within a normal range, but as the rebound continues, the risk of long squeezes will continue to accumulate—once open interest rebounds again, intense long-short battles will lead to faster and more abrupt volatility, which is a hidden risk that needs to be monitored in advance.

The U.S. Senate is striving to advance the cryptocurrency bill in July, but agendas such as the housing bill may squeeze the time window

The U.S. Senate is trying to advance the cryptocurrency market structure bill, the "Clarity Act," in July, but the time window for the bill's passage is narrowing due to a backlog of priority agendas such as the defense authorization bill, the agriculture bill extension, and housing legislation. The Senate's schedule is tight in the coming weeks. In addition to the annual defense and agriculture bills, Trump stated on Wednesday that he would not support a major housing bill unless Congress first passes a bill requiring federal election voters to provide proof of citizenship. This housing bill also includes provisions to prohibit central bank digital currencies.As members of Congress will leave Washington before the August recess, if the relevant bills do not advance before then, the political focus will shift to the November elections when they return, further reducing the available floor time for cryptocurrency legislation. Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis indicated that a new version of the text is expected to be released around July 4 for final review by lawmakers, with a vote planned for July. A Senate aide also mentioned that the "Clarity Act" will become one of the bipartisan priorities when the Senate reconvenes in July. However, the bill still faces multiple uncertainties, including the level of Democratic support, controversies over Trump's related cryptocurrency conflicts of interest, the priority of other significant bills, and the Senate's limited scheduling.

ZachXBT: Indian scam gang suspected of social engineering to steal coins and self-reported to the police to trace and freeze funds

"On-chain detective" ZachXBT published a case analysis stating that in a cryptocurrency asset case involving an Indian scam gang, the relevant individuals reported the case to law enforcement after their assets were frozen, drawing attention. The incident began when a user sought help, claiming that approximately 5.73 BTC (about $475,000) was frozen on Changelly in March 2025.Subsequent on-chain analysis revealed that these funds could be traced back to multiple social engineering attacks and theft cases related to Bitcoin ATMs targeting U.S. users, with a total amount involved exceeding $1 million and several elderly victims. The investigation showed that the individual provided multiple changing explanations for the source of the funds, including "loan," "boss transfer," and "investment from 2014-2015," and there were significant contradictions in the evidence chain.More concerning is that this user had previously filed a police report in India in December 2025, attempting to recover the frozen funds (case number 3207-P/2025). Subsequent on-chain evidence collection and email data analysis indicated that they might be a "mule" for transferring funds, with some bank documents inconsistent with their identity information. ZachXBT noted that such cases demonstrate that social engineering attacks and cross-border fund transfers continue to occur and remind users to avoid interacting with funds from suspicious sources to prevent triggering compliance freezes or legal risks.

The U.S. Treasury Department has launched a financial crackdown on Iran's digital asset infrastructure, freezing nearly $500 million in cryptocurrency assets

The U.S. government, through the Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), has initiated a multi-agency coordinated financial action aimed at systematically targeting Iran's domestic digital asset infrastructure, with the goal of dismantling Tehran's parallel shadow banking system. According to officially disclosed information, this operation has successfully identified and incapacitated a large interconnected digital wallet network directly controlled by the Iranian regime, and has immediately frozen nearly $500 million in sovereign-related crypto assets.The U.S. intends to disrupt Iran's ability to bypass long-standing Western trade embargoes by blocking these alternative capital channels, cutting off its resources to regional proxy networks, and systematically weakening the regime's ability to transfer or repatriate wealth outside the oversight of traditional global clearing institutions. The focus of this enforcement action is to systematically identify state-sponsored large cryptocurrency trading portals, which have quietly evolved into core nodes for evading sanctions.Federal intelligence reports indicate that these regional platforms have processed billions of dollars in high-frequency digital asset transactions, heavily relying on mainstream stablecoins and high-throughput alternative blockchain networks to obscure their illegal settlement flows. Under the newly implemented executive directive, the Treasury is actively blacklisting specific crypto addresses, tracking mining pool variables, and imposing sanctions on foreign technology providers that facilitate these state-supported networks.Additionally, the U.S. is leveraging its dominant position in international banking to compel foreign financial intermediaries to fully comply with its aggressive crypto asset control protocols. The Treasury has issued stern warnings to international technology centers that any platform providing clearing services or liquidity assistance to designated Iranian digital entities will face immediate risks of exclusion from the U.S. financial system.This comprehensive containment model shifts regulatory responsibility to global exchanges, forcing them to deploy advanced real-time blockchain analysis tools to programmatically identify and block any inbound transactions originating from Iranian internet protocol or historical wallet clusters. By installing these stringent crypto safeguards at the level of global gateways, the U.S. government is transforming permissionless distributed ledgers into highly controlled economic zones, ensuring that alternative payment infrastructures cannot be used to undermine broader Western geopolitical security objectives in the next decade.
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