farm

On October 13, the U.S. Department of Justice announced the arrest of two Americans in an operation targeting North Korean IT personnel who entered U.S. companies under false identities, and the seizure of approximately 187 computer devices. Michael James Bostelle from Pennsylvania and Juan Cecilio Pena Carrillo from Texas were arrested based on an indictment from the Northern District of Ohio Federal Court. Prosecutors allege that the scheme involved over 70 U.S. employers, generating approximately $3 million in revenue for overseas IT personnel. The two are charged with conspiracy to commit wire and mail fraud, conspiracy to commit money laundering, and conspiracy to commit identity theft, with Pena additionally charged with aggravated identity theft.The device seizure operation is part of "Operation Lone Star," coordinated by federal law enforcement in the Northern District of Texas. From September 21 to 25, the FBI executed searches at over 40 suspected "laptop farm" residences in Texas, seizing devices including laptops and keyboards, video, and mouse equipment for remote access. According to the Ohio indictment, domestic accomplices received laptops issued by employers at home and then allowed overseas personnel to control them via remote access software or hardware, making it appear as if they were located in the U.S. and accessing company systems, while the accomplices received salaries and transferred funds overseas.The indictment mentions cryptocurrency as one of the means for transferring funds overseas. Trey Michael Nolte, a resident of Ohio, is listed as a co-conspirator but has not been charged in this case; the indictment states that in a conversation on July 8, 2024, he described managing transfers between bank accounts and virtual currencies using spreadsheets, subsequently transferring funds to the defendant Sun Sheng Ming;

Chief Investment Officer Greg Taylor of PenderFund Capital Management stated that the September non-farm report is favorable for the market and essentially rules out the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October.There may still be expectations for a rate hike in December, but it has already been priced in by the market and will not have a significant impact on the market.

After the non-farm payroll data was released, the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond fell by 2.8 basis points to 5.575%. The 2-year yield dropped by 7.7 basis points to 4.71%. The 10-year yield ultimately decreased by 5.6 basis points to 5.18%.

According to Gate market data, after the non-farm payroll data was released, spot gold rose by about 40 dollars, reaching a high of 4,226 dollars per ounce; spot silver broke through 62 dollars per ounce, with an intraday increase of 1.67%.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the non-farm payroll employment for July from +21,000 to -10,000, and for August from 162,000 to 133,000.After the revisions, the total number of new jobs for July and August is 60,000 lower than before the revisions.

In September, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment in the United States increased by 29,000, with an expectation of 90,000, and the previous value was revised from 162,000 to 133,000.

The seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment and unemployment rate, as well as the month-on-month and year-on-year average hourly earnings in the United States for September will be announced in ten minutes.

At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the non-farm payroll report for September.Market consensus expects that 84,000 new jobs were added in September, the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, and the average hourly wage year-on-year is 3.1%; the previous value for August was an increase of 162,000 jobs. The market is particularly focused on the extent of the decline in new jobs, wage growth, and whether the August data will be revised down.

Next week's macro data focus will be on Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll report, including non-farm employment population, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage, which are directly related to the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and are important employment data ahead of the October monetary policy meeting. According to Beijing time, on Wednesday at 20:15, the U.S. September ADP employment figures will be released, and at 20:30, the U.S. August core PCE price index year-on-year will be announced; on Thursday at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 26 will be released, and on Friday at 20:30, the U.S. September seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population and unemployment rate will be published.Regarding officials' speeches, on Thursday at 16:00, Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak, and at 21:30, European Central Bank President Lagarde will speak. Starting from early Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials will have a series of public activities; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, along with 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, will speak in succession, and FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a keynote speech at the University at Buffalo. On Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Cook, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak in turn, and on Friday, Williams and Dallas Fed President Logan will still have public activities. In terms of U.S. stocks, Micron will release its earnings report after the market on Wednesday, and Nike will announce its latest quarterly earnings report on Thursday, with both companies corresponding to storage chips and consumer demand.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, Point Farm Capital (Beqv6d...qeit) has invested a total of 1 million USDC, purchasing 37.21 million STONK at an average market value of 21 million dollars.Currently, the market value of STONK has reached 240 million dollars, with an unrealized profit of 10 million dollars, approximately 10 times the invested amount.

CITIC Securities research report states that in August 2026, the number of new non-farm jobs in the United States was significantly higher than expected, with notable contributions from the leisure hotel and healthcare industries, and a rebound in local government education positions. In the private sector, the goods-producing sector added jobs for the sixth consecutive month, possibly reflecting the demand for data center construction in the United States. The decline in employment in the finance and information technology sectors reflects the impact of AI.The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, rounded to two decimal places as 4.14%, and the labor force participation rate rebounded from 61.4% to 61.6%, while the continuous decline in participation rates for those aged 45-54 still needs to be monitored. The strong non-farm data in August and the dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Waller offset each other, leading the market to reprice the probability of a rate hike in September at around 60%. The focus will next be on the August CPI to be released on September 11.

The Director of the National Economic Council of the White House, Hassett, praised the non-farm payroll report data as "very strong."

The unemployment rate in the United States for August is 4.1%, expected 4.1%, previous value 4.10%.The seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll employment in the United States for August is 162,000, expected 56,000, previous value revised from -23,000 to 21,000.

QCP Capital's market weekly report shows that after Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's speech in Jackson Hole, the probability of a rate hike in September rose from 35% to 70%. BTC fell approximately 2.5% in a single day, and after nine consecutive days of net inflow, the ETF recorded a net outflow of $202 million. However, the dollar failed to maintain a hawkish pricing, with the DXY falling below 99.5, and gold, silver, and BTC all regained their losses.On the Treasury side, on September 9, the first long-end liquidity support operation will be launched, with the purchase limit raised to at least $4 billion (previously $2 billion). The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond auction on August 30 was reported at 5.216%, the highest since 2001, and the market will closely monitor whether this operation can effectively improve long-end liquidity.In terms of inflation, July PCE was reported at 3.7% (core 3.3%), CPI at 3.4% (core 2.5%), and Brent crude oil rose about 10% in a week due to attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and a force majeure event in Qatar LNG, with inflationary pressures continuing. Waller stated that if the data continues to trend as it has over the next two weeks, it would support a pause in rate hikes. Coupled with the ADP employment data showing only 38,000 jobs added (the weakest since January), the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen to 45-50%.