flows

Tom Lee stated that the recent market anxiety, including the slight sale of Bitcoin by Strategy, is typical bottoming behavior rather than a deep-seated crisis. Michael Saylor sold 32 Bitcoins at an average price of $77,135, raising approximately $2.5 million to pay preferred stock dividends. This sale accounted for only 0.004% of the company's over 843,700 Bitcoin holdings. Furthermore, regarding the outflow of $3.4 billion from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF for 11 consecutive days, Tom Lee believes that capital outflow is a classic lagging indicator of market cycle reset. Bitmine's macro strategy has not changed, and its plan to purchase 111,942 Ethereum for approximately $237 million is still underway, with its Ethereum holdings currently reaching nearly 5.4 million.

According to SoSoValue data, last week's trading days (Eastern Time May 25 to May 29) saw a net outflow of $241 million from Ethereum spot ETFs.The Ethereum spot ETF with the highest net outflow last week was Blackrock ETF ETHA, with a weekly net outflow of $188 million, and the historical total net inflow for ETHA currently stands at $11.43 billion. Following that was Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETHE, with a weekly net outflow of $29.2457 million, and the historical total net outflow for ETHE currently stands at $5.31 billion.The Ethereum spot ETF with the highest net inflow last week was Blackrock ETF ETHB, with a weekly net inflow of $12.4387 million, and the historical total net inflow for ETHB currently stands at $531 million. As of the time of publication, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $11.27 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market value as a percentage of Ethereum's total market value) of 4.62%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $11.37 billion.

According to GMGN data, the top 5 tokens with net inflow in the past 24 hours are as follows:KINS (Tqj8....ump): Net inflow of $20,000, 24-hour change -24.1%, currently priced at $0.0021.ALIENS (C9UM....ump): Net inflow of $4,000, 24-hour change 13442.7%, currently priced at $0.0004.wBULL (gAhv....ump): Net inflow of $2,000, 24-hour change -30.5%, currently priced at $0.0002.Peigengoo (roqP....ump): Net inflow of $673, 24-hour change 54.4%, currently priced at $0.0001.DREAM (26Fr....ump): Net inflow of $661, 24-hour change -86.2%, currently priced at $0.0001.

The cryptocurrency market saw a significant decline on Thursday morning, with Bitcoin dropping below $73,000. This round of decline was accompanied by the largest single-day net outflow from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF since late January. Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, stated that this sharp drop reflects a risk-averse sentiment as profit-taking occurs after recent highs, and is also influenced by rising U.S. Treasury yields and macro caution stemming from geopolitical news.Analysts added that the market decline is primarily due to funds rotating into traditional financial stocks, and once key price levels are breached, a large amount of derivatives liquidation further depressed prices. Data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a total net outflow of $733.4 million on Wednesday, marking the largest single-day outflow since January 29. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw a net outflow of $527.8 million, setting a record for the largest single-day outflow since the fund's inception. Additionally, other ETFs like Grayscale's GBTC also experienced negative outflows. Only Morgan Stanley's MSBT recorded a net inflow of $4.3 million.Analysts believe that the outflow of funds is due to basis trade liquidations and institutional de-risking operations, while IBIT's record outflow was influenced by large trades the previous day. Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Research, pointed out that Bitcoin has exhibited a "unique trading pattern" since mid-May, continuing to decline over the past two weeks and underperforming risk assets like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, primarily driven by outflows from the spot Bitcoin ETF.Analysts are closely monitoring ETF fund flow trends and Bitcoin's support level around $70,000, warning that ongoing fund outflows may indicate that institutions are further adjusting their cryptocurrency asset allocations. On a macro level, Asian stock markets opened lower on Thursday, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and Japan's Nikkei 225 both declining, due to renewed strikes by the U.S. against Iran amid a fragile ceasefire agreement.

According to Gate Ventures' latest weekly report, there has been a significant style shift in global stock markets, with funds rotating from growth sectors to value and defensive assets. The Dow Jones Index rose by 2.22%, and labor market data remains resilient. Macroeconomic indicators show a divergence, with the composite PMI preliminary value rising to a two-year high of 54.4, but input cost pressures still exist. Coupled with the ongoing impact of high interest rates on real estate activity, the economy overall presents a structural state of coexistence between expansion and pressure. The cryptocurrency market has slightly retreated, with BTC down 0.5% and ETH down 1.6%; the total market capitalization declined by 0.4%, remaining flat compared to last week, and market sentiment is in a moderate recovery phase.At the asset and industry level, the top 30 assets averaged a rise of 4.2%, with HYPE and ZEC leading the performance, influenced by factors such as ecosystem expansion, liquidity improvement, and easing regulatory uncertainty. In terms of industry dynamics, on-chain infrastructure and the compliance process continue to advance, with active financing and product iteration in areas such as prediction markets, on-chain derivatives, and payment networks. In terms of investment and financing, a total of 24 transactions were completed last week, disclosing a total financing amount of approximately $532.6 million, with infrastructure and DeFi being the main sectors of flow, and Kalshi securing a single financing of $200 million.Additionally, Variational completed a $50 million Series A financing, AEON completed $8 million in pre-seed financing, while infrastructure and social blocks recorded 12 and 6 transactions, respectively. Overall, against the backdrop of macro volatility and market divergence, capital allocation continues to trend towards long-term infrastructure and real application scenarios.

BIT released today's chart stating that the key to market analysis often lies in identifying the core factors driving asset price movements and observing when these factors begin to change.In the case of Bitcoin, the recent sustained rise has largely depended on the interplay between institutional demand and the market's available supply. Over the past year, spot Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) have been significant sources of this demand. When ETF inflows accelerate and Strategy continues to accumulate Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin typically continues to rise.Currently, the total net buying amount of ETFs and Strategy has dropped to only $870 million, primarily due to significant outflows from ETFs, shifting from net buying to net selling. Before ETF inflows stabilize and rebound, Bitcoin may continue to primarily experience consolidation in the short term.

The privacy coin sector led the decline, giving back most of the recent gains in the crypto market. According to HTX data, ZEC once dropped 5.2% to $619, marking the largest decline among the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, but it still rose 8.2% over the past 7 days. Zcash has been one of the strongest performing assets in the crypto market over the past few weeks. Due to Multicoin Capital disclosing its holdings earlier this month and the overall narrative surrounding privacy coins heating up, ZEC has attracted institutional attention. Analysts believe that a 5% pullback after such a rally is more like profit-taking rather than new selling pressure, as structural buyers of privacy coins have been accumulating during the rise rather than distributing.Hyperliquid's HYPE token briefly surpassed Dogecoin in market capitalization during the Asian session before retreating. HYPE fell 4% to $59, while Dogecoin (DOGE) dropped 0.8% to $0.1009. Driven by the launch of perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid ahead of SpaceX's listing last week, HYPE still rose 23.6% over the past 7 days. The macro backdrop has driven a cautious tone in the market. The U.S. Central Command confirmed strikes on missile launch sites in Iran and vessels attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, describing them as defensive actions. Brent crude oil rose nearly 2% to $98 per barrel, rebounding from a 7% plunge on Monday (when the London and New York markets were closed for a holiday). The dollar strengthened against all G10 currencies, gold fell 0.6% to $4,545, and S&P 500 futures maintained a 0.6% gain after the U.S. market was closed on Monday.

According to Cointelegraph, the crypto analysis platform Swissblock stated that Bitcoin is sliding into a high-risk environment due to continuous selling by institutions. Its Bitcoin risk index is currently at 33 points, in the high-risk zone. Swissblock pointed out that every time the risk index signals a structural selling pressure overwhelming the market, it is backed by institutions selling off.Glassnode reported that since May 7, the U.S. Bitcoin ETF has recorded net outflows almost every trading day, with continuous institutional selling signals increasing pressure on the supply side for more than two weeks, while demand has not offset this. CoinEx chief analyst Jeff Ko stated that over the past two weeks, more than $2 billion has flowed out of spot ETFs, and institutional risk appetite remains in a marginally sensitive state. News of the U.S. launching new strikes against Iran on Tuesday morning further intensified the risk, causing Bitcoin to drop by 1%, falling from $77,000 to below $76,500.

U.S. ETF inflows are at a historic record level, attracting over $852 billion in net inflows so far this year, the highest annual amount ever. The current inflow rate is 33% higher than in 2025, and it is expected to achieve growth for the third consecutive year. The average net inflow per trading day is $8.5 billion, compared to only $2.2 billion in 2023. At the current pace, U.S. ETF inflows will surpass $1 trillion in the next 18 trading days. Investor demand for ETFs has never been this strong.

Santiment released a weekly market summary stating that Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows on 9 out of the past 10 trading days, with the current Bitcoin price around $77,500; it views this phenomenon as a reflection of weakening retail confidence.Meanwhile, Ethereum market sentiment has dropped to its lowest level since 2023, but the number of non-zero addresses has reached 192.92 million, which is more than three times Bitcoin's approximately 59 million. Santiment also pointed out that the current ratio of bullish to bearish comments on Bitcoin has risen to 2.23, the highest level within 2026, and historically, such high sentiment often appears before short-term corrections.

According to the latest weekly report from CoinShares, institutional digital asset investment products experienced a net outflow of approximately $1.07 billion in a single week, marking the third-largest weekly net outflow this year and ending a previous six-week streak of net inflows.Due to geopolitical risk sentiment related to Iran, funds primarily withdrew from Bitcoin, with a net outflow of $982 million, and Ethereum saw a net outflow of $249 million, the largest single-week outflow since January 30. Blockchain stock ETFs also experienced an outflow of about $133 million. The United States was the main source of this capital outflow, totaling approximately $1.14 billion, while products in Switzerland, Germany, the Netherlands, and Canada recorded slight net inflows.Meanwhile, XRP and Solana recorded net inflows of approximately $67.6 million and $55.1 million, respectively, while Ton, Sui, Ondo, Chainlink, and Doge also saw inflows in the millions, indicating that some funds are selectively allocating outside of BTC and ETH.

According to BIT analysis, Ethereum's recent price performance is increasingly dominated by ETF fund flows. Over the past year, the 30-day average of daily net inflows into ETH ETFs has been highly synchronized with Ethereum's price movements, and the sensitivity of Ethereum's price to institutional funds has significantly increased. One of the core narratives of Ethereum is a net staking yield of about 2.5%.However, in an environment where inflation is accelerating again and the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen above 4.6%, Ethereum's staking yield advantage is weakening compared to risk-free assets like U.S. Treasuries. Since May, there has been a re-emergence of fund outflows from Ethereum ETFs, which aligns with the aforementioned logic. If this trend continues, Ethereum is likely to remain in a phase of consolidation and fluctuation.

According to SoSoValue data, last week's trading days (Eastern Time May 11 to May 15) saw a net outflow of $1.039 billion from Bitcoin spot ETFs.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net outflow last week was the Ark & 21Shares ETF ARKB, with a weekly net outflow of $324 million, and the historical total net inflow for ARKB currently stands at $1.39 billion. Following that is the BlackRock ETF IBIT, with a weekly net outflow of $317 million, and the historical total net inflow for IBIT currently stands at $65.78 billion.The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net inflow last week was the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC, with a weekly net inflow of $12.604 million, and the historical total net inflow for BTC currently stands at $2.3 billion.As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $104.29 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market value relative to Bitcoin's total market value) of 6.58%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $58.34 billion.

Cryptocurrency analyst Marcel Pechman stated that Bitcoin rapidly fell back after being rejected at $82,000 on Friday, dropping below $79,000. The movement is highly synchronized with the U.S. small-cap stock index, indicating that macro factors are the main driving force behind this round of decline. The Russell 2000 index, which covers small and medium-sized enterprises, has a higher capital cost and is more sensitive to interest rate trends. The high correlation between Bitcoin and this index suggests that the market currently characterizes Bitcoin as a risk asset rather than a safe-haven tool.The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts briefly turned deeply negative on Thursday and remained close to 0% on Friday, with continued absence of long leverage demand—this indicator has been below the neutral threshold of 6% for several weeks. Multiple attempts to breach $82,000 have failed to boost market confidence. Macro pressures have been piling up: the outcome of the U.S.-China summit disappointed the market, with no specific tariff agreements reached aside from a commitment to accelerate U.S. agricultural exports over the next three years; meanwhile, the ongoing war in Iran continues to weigh on market sentiment, with Brent crude oil prices jumping from $99 to $106 in the past week, further exacerbating inflationary pressures.Additionally, the inflation-adjusted Shiller price-to-earnings ratio shows that the S&P 500 index is currently only about 5% lower than its peak during the internet bubble in January 2000, indicating a significant contraction in overall market risk appetite. However, the massive sell-off in the fixed income market may provide mid-term support for Bitcoin. The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to its highest level in over 20 years, while the yield on the Eurozone's 10-year government bonds has also surged to 3.18%, a 15-year high. Analysts believe that in response to recession risks, central banks may be forced to inject liquidity, and funds flowing out of fixed income may ultimately seek other asset allocations, with Bitcoin likely to benefit from this.

According to CoinDesk, on-chain analysis firm Arkham Data shows that over the past year, wallets associated with Bhutan have seen outflows of approximately $1 billion in Bitcoin, with funds flowing to multiple trading platforms and trading institutions, reducing their holdings from about 13,000 BTC to around 3,100 BTC.Arkham speculates that there may be ongoing selling behavior, and if the trend continues, the relevant addresses may be cleared of holdings before October 2026. However, Bhutan's sovereign fund Druk Holding and Investments (DHI) stated that "they do not recall any recent Bitcoin sales," did not respond to specific changes in on-chain addresses, and did not confirm the current holding size, only emphasizing that there are no additional comments.The report points out that some of the fund inflow paths are related to institutions such as Galaxy Digital and OKX, leading the market to interpret this as selling or over-the-counter trading behavior, but there are also possibilities of transfers into custody, collateralization, or structured trading that do not involve selling. Additionally, some trading institution personnel stated that there has been no clear selling recently.Furthermore, Bhutan's previous commitment to a reserve of 10,000 BTC for the "Gelephu Mindfulness City" project has also been questioned due to potential sell-offs. Currently, there is still significant disagreement regarding its actual holdings and mining operations.

According to Decrypt, the price of Bitcoin remains around $80,350, with a short-term increase of only 0.8%, continuing to face pressure after multiple attempts to break through the $82,000 resistance level failed. This range is seen as a combined resistance level of the ETF cost line, the 200-day moving average, and the CME gap filling area. Although the U.S. CLARITY Act has passed the Senate Banking Committee, bringing positive expectations for crypto regulation, institutional funds continue to withdraw.Data shows that the net outflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has decreased to an average of -$88 million per day over the past seven days, marking the largest outflow since mid-February. Analysts believe that this round of selling pressure is more about "profit-taking" rather than panic selling. On a macro level, rising U.S. Treasury yields have become a core source of pressure. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen to about 4.52%, reaching a 10-month high, while the April CPI has increased by 3.8% year-on-year, the highest level in three years, further delaying market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.Analysts point out that geopolitical conflicts are driving up energy prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures, thereby weakening the appeal of risk assets. From an institutional perspective, some analysts believe that the current outflow of ETF funds is part of portfolio rebalancing rather than a trend-based withdrawal.The options market shows that Bitcoin faces significant resistance in the $82,000-$84,000 range, while $77,000 is a key support level. If the price falls below this range and leverage does not cool down, the market may enter a deleveraging phase, increasing the risk of a correction.

According to GMGN data, the top 5 tokens with net inflow from KOL in the past 24 hours are as follows:REGINALD (GuWq....ump): Net inflow of $2,000, with a 24-hour increase of 160.8%, currently priced at $0.0001.RoyalPop (8Tbn....ump): Net inflow of $2,000, with a 24-hour decrease of -23.3%, currently priced at $0.001.MONET (Uitv....ump): Net inflow of $1,000, with a 24-hour increase of 10591.5%, currently priced at $0.0004.HOTMOMS (FkUk....ump): Net inflow of $674, with a 24-hour increase of 310.6%, currently priced at $0.0001.DouDou (Cyiz....ump): Net inflow of $476, with a 24-hour increase of 125.7%, currently priced at $0.0001.

According to BBX data, institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs maintained strong momentum yesterday. Today, both houses of Congress are advancing cryptocurrency legislation simultaneously for the first time, with the core dynamics as follows:The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a total net inflow of approximately $358.1 million yesterday (May 13), with BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE: $BLK) subsidiary iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ: $IBIT) seeing a single-day net inflow of $269.3 million, the strongest single-day data in recent weeks; the overall U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has recorded net positive inflows for seven consecutive weeks, further reinforcing the structural signal of institutional capital returning. Bitcoin closed above $80,000 yesterday, with a year-to-date increase of about 14%, and market sentiment remains relatively optimistic on the eve of the CLARITY Act markup.The House Ways & Means Committee held a closed-door meeting today (May 14) on cryptocurrency tax reform in sync with the Senate Banking Committee's CLARITY Act markup, covering topics such as the treatment of capital gains tax on crypto assets, tax reporting responsibilities for DeFi protocols, and the tax classification of Bitcoin mining and staking income; this marks the first time in 2026 that both houses of Congress are advancing cryptocurrency regulatory legislation on the same day, indicating that cryptocurrency regulatory legislation has expanded from a single market structure issue to a complete legislative ecosystem of "regulatory framework + tax system."

According to The Kobeissi Letter, crypto funds recorded an inflow of $858 million last week, marking the sixth consecutive week of net inflows, with a total of $4.7 billion injected over the past six weeks.In the past 11 weeks, crypto funds have seen net inflows in 10 of those weeks. Among them, Bitcoin funds led the way with an inflow of $706 million last week, totaling $4.9 billion year-to-date. Ethereum, Solana, and XRP funds saw inflows of $77 million, $48 million, and $40 million, respectively.Meanwhile, short Bitcoin funds experienced an outflow of $14 million last week, the largest single-week outflow since 2026, indicating a further weakening of bearish sentiment in the market.