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DWF Labs: Bitcoin spot ETF fund flows lag behind the market, making it difficult to predict future rises and falls

According to a report by Cointelegraph, DWF Labs pointed out in a research report released on Thursday that the daily capital flow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF is difficult to predict for Bitcoin's subsequent trends, with investors more inclined to buy after price increases and withdraw during declines.The study covers 694 trading days since the launch of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF in January 2024: in 8 instances where the Bitcoin price fell by 15%, there were net outflows of ETF funds in 7 of those cases; while in all 9 instances where the price rose by 15%, there were net inflows of funds.DWF Labs concluded that ETF capital flows are more about confirming market trends rather than predicting them in advance. Data shows that the correlation coefficient of the day's ETF capital flow with the price changes of Bitcoin over the previous 5 trading days is 0.54, but the correlation coefficient with the price changes over the subsequent 5 trading days is only 0.03. From October 2025 to February 2026, the net outflow from Bitcoin ETFs was approximately $6.9 billion, and during the market decline from May to June 2026, the net outflow was about $8.2 billion.DWF Labs also noted that some ETF trades may involve buying fund shares while simultaneously shorting Bitcoin through futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as a hedging strategy, so the capital flow does not directly reflect investors' true bullish or bearish positions.

Wintermute: Bitcoin has lost the support of capital inflows, and altcoins should be viewed cautiously in the short term

Wintermute stated that the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that most officials expect another interest rate hike within the year, with the market pricing in a roughly 20% probability of a rate increase by the end of October. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 5.24%. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 index rose 1.2% last week, reaching a historic high, while the cryptocurrency market performed weakly. The rise in U.S. stocks was supported by expectations of corporate earnings growth, while the cryptocurrency market lacked similar earnings support and relied more on new capital inflows.As capital flows reversed, the cryptocurrency assets' sustained upward momentum over the previous six weeks became difficult to maintain. Bitcoin fell back from around $86,000 to $87,000 last week, dipping to about $80,400 on Thursday before rebounding above $83,000 and regaining the range high of $82,500. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $679 million last week, the largest single-week outflow since late June, while the Ethereum ETF experienced a net outflow of about $542 million.The cryptocurrency market has lost the support of capital inflows, while U.S. stocks still have earnings growth as a cushion. Therefore, in the short term, the market outlook will only remain optimistic if long-term Treasury yields stabilize and spot ETF funds turn back to net inflows. Before these two conditions are met, Bitcoin remains an asset that is more sensitive to U.S. stock volatility and has higher downside risks, making it inadvisable to chase low-quality altcoins. If the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks above the 5.64% reached on September 30, or if Bitcoin continues to face resistance around $82,500, Wintermute will adopt a cautious stance. This week, attention should be focused on the U.S. September CPI data to assess whether energy inflation is spreading to core inflation, as well as the financial performance of financial institutions and AI-related companies.

Analysis: Bitcoin prices are diverging from demand, with ETF inflows and trading platforms transferring out holdings providing short-term support

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that although the price of Bitcoin is rising, sustained buying pressure is still difficult to rebuild, and market signals are mixed. The cumulative spot demand over the past 30 days is -180,000 BTC, still negative, while futures demand is +54,000 BTC, still positive but slightly declining. The total average demand improved from -188,000 BTC to -126,000 BTC, narrowing the gap but still remaining in negative territory. Recently, there has been a divergence between price and total demand; Bitcoin's price has risen, but total demand has not turned positive, indicating that the increase is more driven by reduced selling pressure rather than strong buying.Looking at different sectors, the demand recovery is not uniform. For institutions, the geopolitical and macro environment is poor, but the Coinbase Premium, weighted by trading volume, has briefly turned positive, indicating that U.S. spot prices occasionally have a premium over other markets, and institutional selling pressure has significantly eased. ETFs have seen the biggest change in this round, with demand completely reversing compared to this summer, having recently net purchased about 70,000 BTC. The cumulative net inflow for 2026 is still about -17,000 BTC, but it is close to turning positive. In terms of trading platforms, the entire month of September has been characterized by net outflows, leaning towards accumulation rather than distribution. Bitcoin leaving trading platforms usually means that short-term selling pressure is lighter. Analyst Darkfost summarized that the current price increase is not due to enhanced buying pressure, but rather because investors have not continued to increase selling pressure at higher price levels, and the market structure remains fragile.
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