fomc

Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang stated in a live broadcast yesterday that the overall tone of the Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting minutes is hawkish. Although the interest rate was kept unchanged at this meeting, several officials emphasized that if inflation does not continue to decline to the 2% target, further tightening of policy or even another rate hike remains a viable option. This means that the market should not simply trade based on interest rate cut expectations in the short term, but should reassess the impact of "high rates lasting longer" on the US dollar, US Treasury yields, gold, and US stock valuations.Lewis Huang pointed out that the subsequent market direction will be determined by a combination of inflation and employment data: if CPI, PCE, or wage data rise and the job market remains resilient, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may strengthen, while gold and high-valuation assets like the Nasdaq 100 may come under pressure; conversely, if inflation significantly cools and employment and consumption weaken simultaneously, the market will raise expectations for Federal Reserve easing, and gold, non-US currencies, and risk assets are expected to receive support. He suggested that CFD traders focus on the correlation between the US two-year Treasury yield, the US dollar index, and gold, waiting for price breakthroughs and pullback confirmations after major data releases, avoiding chasing the initial wave of volatility, while strictly controlling leverage and stop-loss risks.

Federal Reserve's Williams expressed strong support for the FOMC's latest interest rate decision and reiterated the commitment to restoring inflation to the 2% target level. If inflation does not decline to 2% as expected, the Federal Reserve will take action to achieve price stability.Additionally, Williams stated that the impact of the Middle East conflict on inflation is expected to gradually weaken, but he acknowledged that there is still uncertainty in the situation. He also pointed out that market pricing provides valuable information to the Federal Reserve, but the Federal Reserve does not need to agree with the market pricing levels.Furthermore, he believes that investments in artificial intelligence will not pose risks to financial stability and is not surprised by the volatility in the AI industry.

According to Jinshi reports, "Federal Reserve mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos stated that three Federal Reserve officials who support interest rate hikes provided more reasons than most FOMC members during Wednesday's statement or press conference.Logan reiterated her view from two weeks ago that, after excluding recent shocks, underlying inflation is close to 2.5%, which she believes justifies tightening the policy stance.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated at the FOMC meeting that he holds a different opinion and prefers to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicated that productivity growth and capital investment performed strongly.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicates that the unemployment rate has not changed much.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve reiterated in the FOMC statement that economic activity is expanding at a robust pace.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve reiterated in the FOMC statement that employment growth is in sync with the labor force.

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a themed live broadcast today at 20:00 titled "FOMC Tonight Determines the Future------ The 20% Interest Rate Hike Probability: Can BTC's $70 Options Bet Still Pay Off?" At that time, crypto KOLs such as Sister Maomao, Genuine Little Taoist, 0xJoker, and Mr. Mis will be invited to attend, focusing on the core variables that the market is concerned about on the eve of the FOMC meeting, analyzing the macro signals behind the 20% interest rate hike probability, discussing the impact of changes in US dollar liquidity on the crypto market, and combining BTC's key options positions to find short-term market breakthroughs and risk turning points.

According to Jinshi reports, Paul Zangieri, a senior economist at Prudential Investment, is closely monitoring the communication wording of the Federal Reserve. It is expected that the FOMC will "maintain or even strengthen its hawkish tone," as ongoing inflation, rising oil prices, and internal disagreements within the FOMC open the door for further tightening of policies later this year.

According to CoinDesk, analysts say that if the Federal Reserve releases any dovish signals, it could be beneficial for Bitcoin. There is significant divergence in the market regarding whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Wednesday—CME FedWatch data shows a 70% probability of maintaining rates and a 30% probability of an unexpected 25 basis point hike. Block Scholes analyst Thahbib Rahman pointed out that the reduction in forward guidance usage by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has led to increased market uncertainty, making this FOMC meeting one of the most uncertain in years.Bitcoin has risen about 6% so far in July, while the S&P 500 has remained flat, and the semiconductor sector has dropped nearly 20%. K33 Research's research director Vetle Lunde stated that the Nasdaq had previously been strong and positions were stretched, with Bitcoin continuing to consolidate near multi-year lows, leading to a weakening correlation between the two. This week's FOMC meeting may have limited impact on BTC. Rahman stated, "Any dovish signals could drive Bitcoin to continue outperforming."

The Federal Reserve will hold the FOMC monetary policy meeting from July 28 to 29, and the market is closely watching the direction of interest rate adjustments, inflation trends, and the policy signals released by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and officials. In the context of macro events driving market volatility, Gate event contracts are becoming a focus tool for some investors participating in the FOMC trading cycle. This product revolves around the price direction of BTC and ETH in short cycles such as 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 1 hour, and 4 hours, allowing users to make market arrangements in advance based on their predictions of macro policy outcomes and market trends.Compared to traditional derivatives, event contracts adopt a probability pricing model, with each contract priced between 0.01 to 0.99 USDT, and a minimum participation threshold of 1.5 USDT. The product mechanism does not introduce leverage, does not involve margin calls or forced liquidations, and the user's maximum loss is limited to the principal paid at the time of purchase; if the directional judgment is correct, it will be settled at 1 USDT per contract upon expiration. Under key nodes such as macro policies, this model provides users with a trading method that has clear risk boundaries and a lower participation threshold.In addition, Gate event contracts have launched a "New User First Order Compensation" activity, opening a $20,000 prize pool. Eligible new users who complete their first transaction and incur a loss can receive compensation rewards according to the rules.As the FOMC decision and subsequent policy statements are about to be announced, market sentiment may undergo further changes, and Gate event contracts provide users with a new way to participate in short-cycle market trading.

According to Jinshi reports, Pruis stated that the number of dissenting votes at this week's Federal Reserve meeting will be closely monitored as an indicator of the degree of disagreement within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The voting results are expected to be 10 votes in favor and 2 votes against, with Logan and Hamak voting against, advocating for a 25 basis point rate hike. If dissenting votes exceed three, even if the rate remains unchanged in July, it will be a clearer signal indicating that the committee is moving towards a rate hike in September.

Trader Ansem posted that Warsh and the hawkish FOMC may put pressure on risk assets, expecting that risk assets will generally decline, while BTC has shown relative weakness compared to most assets. He believes that BTC's failure to break through the weekly resistance across multiple time frames may lead to another test of the range's low point.

According to Jinshi reports, the chart in the Federal Reserve's economic outlook shows that most FOMC participants believe there is a high level of uncertainty regarding the unemployment rate, with risks roughly balanced. Compared to the predictions in March, the current majority of participants believe the uncertainty is high, with risks tilted to the upside.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement reiterates the policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system and instructs the open market operations department to increase securities holdings when appropriate.