fomc

Ethereum has dropped to around $2,100, with a daily decline of 7%, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and higher inflation expectations. In the past 24 hours, the total amount of long liquidations in the crypto market reached $492.8 million, with over $144 million in ETH long positions being forcibly liquidated.More critically, CoinGlass data shows that if ETH falls below $2,000, it will trigger over $2.5 billion in leveraged long liquidations across all trading platforms, meaning that if the bearish momentum continues, ETH will face a greater risk of a waterfall decline. Additionally, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net outflow of over $55.5 million on Wednesday, ending a streak of six consecutive days of net inflows. In the past eight FOMC meetings, ETH has declined after seven of them.The typical post-FOMC pullback ranges from 16% to 23%, with deeper deleveraging phases seeing declines of 33% to 43%. From a technical perspective, $2,100 is currently a key support level, closely coinciding with the upper boundary of the ascending triangle and the 50-day moving average. If the bulls can hold this position, the next target is $2,575 (100-day moving average), and above that is the triangle measurement target of $2,700. If $2,100 is lost, ETH will retest the triangle support line around $2,000; if it further breaks below the 20-day moving average, it faces the risk of dropping to $1,800.

According to Jin Shi reports, Goldman Sachs' Head of Multi-Asset Fixed Income Investment, Lindsay Rosner, stated that despite the upward revision of inflation forecasts, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) still maintains a dovish stance. Goldman Sachs still believes there is room for two "normalization" rate cuts in 2026, with the specific timing depending on the duration of the conflict.

According to Jinshi reports, George Goncalves, the head of macro strategy at Mitsubishi UFJ in the United States, stated that the Federal Reserve FOMC's statement is "neutral." The fine-tuning of the statement aims to avoid sending any signals while conveying that they are vigilant about any growth shocks and the inflation spillover effects caused by the Middle East conflict.

According to Jinshi reports, the chart in the Federal Reserve's economic outlook shows that most FOMC participants believe that PCE inflation and core PCE inflation face high uncertainty, with risks tilted to the upside.

According to Jin Shi reports, the chart in the Federal Reserve's economic outlook shows that most FOMC participants believe that the uncertainty facing actual GDP is high, with a downward risk bias.

According to Jinshi reports, the chart in the Federal Reserve's economic outlook shows that most FOMC participants believe there is high uncertainty regarding the unemployment rate, with risks tilted to the upside.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement pointed out that employment growth has remained sluggish in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained basically unchanged.

According to Jin Shi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC released economic forecasts, expecting the median core PCE inflation expectations at the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 to be 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2%, respectively. In contrast, the expectations in December were 2.5%, 2.1%, and 2%.

According to Jinshi reports, the economic projections released by the Federal Reserve FOMC show that the median unemployment rate expectations for the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.2%, respectively. In comparison, the December projections were 4.4%, 4.2%, and 4.2%.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicates that the current level of inflation is still slightly high.

According to Cointelegraph, influenced by the unexpected U.S. inflation data, Bitcoin has fallen back to around $72,000.Data shows that the U.S. February PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations, continuing the recent upward trend in inflation. The data was released just hours before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and although the market generally expects no rate adjustment this time, market fluctuations still depend on Chairman Jerome Powell's statements and policy guidance.Singapore trading firm QCP Capital pointed out that macro factors remain the dominant variable in the current market. As rising oil prices weaken rate cut expectations, the interest rate environment's support for the crypto market is diminishing. Currently, traders are generally turning cautious. Analyst Jelle stated that Bitcoin is still hindered below a key resistance level, and it is "safer to remain cautious" before the FOMC meeting, warning of the risk of breaking below support. Some opinions even suggest that the market is still in a bear phase.

According to market news, Bitcoin is currently priced at approximately $74,230, down about 2.6% from the six-week high of $76,000 reached on Tuesday. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.Traders widely believe that the expectation of unchanged interest rates has been fully priced in by the market, and the real catalyst for volatility will be the statements made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the post-meeting press conference—whether a hawkish or dovish stance will directly influence market direction. Additionally, the situation between the U.S. and Israel-Iran, inflation concerns, and rising oil prices also pose potential sources of volatility.In terms of price, Bitcoin needs to effectively break through the resistance level of $76,000 and turn it into support in order to further challenge the range above $80,000, with the next target being the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $87,411. If the bulls fail to hold, the price may retreat to the range of $72,000 to $65,000, and in extreme cases, it could drop to $60,000.

According to Jinshi News, Goldman Sachs Asset Management analyst Kay Haigh stated that there are some preliminary signs of a tightening labor market, but there is still a long way to go before it is fully tightened.Given the economy's continued performance exceeding expectations, the FOMC's focus will shift to the inflation situation. Goldman Sachs still believes there is room for two more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year; however, if the CPI released on Friday unexpectedly rises, it may push the Federal Reserve towards a more hawkish stance.

According to on-chain analyst Ali's monitoring, in the 8 FOMC meetings of 2025, there were significant pullbacks in BTC after 7 of the meetings, with an average decline of 14%. Only after one meeting was there a brief upward reaction.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement upgraded its assessment of economic activity, stating that it is expanding at a "robust" pace.

According to Jin Ten's report, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement removed the wording regarding the increased downside risks to employment.

According to Jinshi, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicates that the inflation level remains slightly elevated.

According to Jinshi News, Charles Schwab's Chief Strategist Kathy Jones stated that the Federal Reserve's FOMC statement may make some adjustments regarding inflation, as the current financial conditions are relatively loose.

According to Jinshi News, U.S. President Trump stated in a speech in Iowa: "I will soon announce the nominee for the Federal Reserve Chairman."Market analyst Ghiles Guezout pointed out that this announcement could come as early as today. Trump has made a decision regarding Powell's successor.Financial website Investinglive analyst Eamonn Sheridan believes that Trump may announce this nominee during the Federal Reserve's January policy meeting to influence the direction of policy. The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate decision at 03:00 Beijing time on Thursday.

QCP published a daily market analysis stating, "Bitcoin has rebounded above the key level of $88,000. Recently, a drop below this level often triggers a rapid downward move dominated by liquidations; however, if it can quickly recover, it will pull the price back into the consolidation range. Next, the market will face a series of intense U.S. macro events: the FOMC interest rate decision; the government funding deadline, which keeps the risk of a shutdown alive; and the Senate rescheduling discussions on cryptocurrency market structure legislation. The options market clearly reflects this asymmetry. Overall volatility remains controlled, and the term structure maintains a positive spread, so the baseline scenario remains consolidation rather than a crash.In terms of fiscal risk, the key issue is whether Washington can successfully resolve the funding issue. If a temporary solution can be passed in time, short-term risk premiums are expected to compress, and crypto assets will resemble pure Beta trades; if there is a brief misstep, the market may initially fluctuate but will rebound after an agreement is reached; if the deadlock continues, it could tighten liquidity and force the market to undergo broader de-risking. A closer key point is the Federal Reserve. The baseline expectation remains unchanged interest rates, with market focus on when rate cuts will resume. Inflation is still above 2%, while employment is starting to weaken, causing the committee to remain cautious and data-dependent.Against the backdrop of concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, it is expected to emphasize its independence and reiterate the statement of "waiting for more data"; if there is a hawkish pause, it may trigger a rebound in the dollar and lead to short-term volatility in risk assets."