fomc

According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January next year has fallen below 20%, currently reported at 19.9%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 80.1%. Last week, the probability of a rate cut in January rose to 31%.The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged until March next year is 44.7%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 46.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 8.8%.The dates for the next two FOMC meetings of the Federal Reserve are January 28, 2026, and March 18, 2026.

Beth Hammack, president of the Cleveland Fed, stated that after the Federal Reserve's consecutive interest rate cuts in the past three meetings, she sees no need for any adjustments in the coming months.Hammack opposes the recent rate cuts due to her concerns about persistently high inflation, which outweigh her worries about potential vulnerabilities in the labor market—concerns that have led officials to cut rates by a cumulative 0.75 percentage points over the past few months. Hammack is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this year but will gain voting rights next year.Hammack hinted that the Fed does not need to adjust its current benchmark rate, which is in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, at least until next spring. She stated that by then, the Fed will be better able to assess whether recent inflation in commodity prices is subsiding as the impact of tariffs is more fully digested in the supply chain. (Jin Shi)

According to Jin Ten, Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, stated that the 25 basis point rate cut aligns with market expectations, as the rate cut has long been anticipated, and the economic forecast remains optimistic. He believes this statement reflects a dovish yet cautious stance, noting that the Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious approach and is still waiting for more economic data to emerge, especially observing the evolution of the labor market, while inflation levels remain high.

According to Jinshi reports, the FOMC economic projections show that the median interest rate forecast is completely consistent with September, while the GDP expectations for 2025-2028 have been raised, and the PCE and core PCE expectations for 2025-2026 have been lowered.

According to Jin Shi reports, the comparison of the Federal Reserve FOMC statement (compared to October) found that the description of the unemployment rate as "lower" was removed in December, and the statement "considering the degree and timing of further adjustments to interest rates" was added (Jin Shi).

According to Jin Ten's report, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicates that the pace of future reserve management purchases may be "significantly reduced."

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicates that the economy is expanding at a moderate pace, employment growth has slowed, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicated that the initial Treasury bill purchase amount will increase "in a few months."

According to Jinshi reports, the economic forecasts released by the Federal Reserve FOMC show that the median PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 2.9%, 2.4%, 2.1%, and 2%, respectively. In comparison, the expectations in September were 3%, 2.6%, 2.1%, and 2%.

According to Jin10, the Federal Reserve has removed the operational limits on the standing overnight reverse repurchase operations in the FOMC statement.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC has lowered the median core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 to 3%, 2.5%, 2.1%, and 2%, respectively. In contrast, the expectations in September were 3.1%, 2.6%, 2.1%, and 2%.

According to Jin Ten's report, the economic projections released by the Federal Reserve's FOMC indicate that the median unemployment rate expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 4.5%, 4.4%, 4.2%, and 4.2%, respectively. In comparison, the expectations from September were 4.5%, 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.2%.

According to Jin Ten reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement indicated that the inflation level has risen compared to earlier this year and remains at a relatively high level.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement will purchase $40 billion in Treasury bonds over the next 30 days.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve FOMC statement will begin purchasing Treasury bills on December 12.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve stated that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be held as scheduled at 9 AM local time on Tuesday.

According to Jin Shi reports, former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Brainard stated in an interview that if she attends the upcoming FOMC meeting, she may choose a hawkish rate cut.She pointed out that in the absence of official data, she would refer to non-government data sources for employment data. Brainard is inclined to cut rates once more and is committed to bringing inflation down to 2% within the next two years. She emphasized that for Americans, the top priority is inflation and prices.

According to analyst @ali_charts, after the 7 FOMC meetings that have occurred this year, Bitcoin has only recorded one increase, which was 15% on May 7. The remaining 6 meetings resulted in declines.In this regard, @ali_charts reminds traders to pay attention to the upcoming FOMC meeting this week, as there may be a risk of a decline following "profit-taking" in the market.

Matrixport released a chart today stating, "As the FOMC meeting approaches, market sentiment is highly focused on relevant policy signals. Although Bitcoin prices have stabilized, it is temporarily difficult to view this as the beginning of a new upward trend. Current option pricing still implies about a 5% downside risk, as funds continue to hedge against pullback risks. With a general trend of deleveraging and reducing positions by the end of the year, short-term rebounds are more often used as a window for reducing positions rather than a new signal for increasing positions. From a seasonal perspective, market liquidity tends to be tight around Christmas, making the sustainability of upward trends more susceptible to pressure. The current dividing line between bulls and bears is roughly at the $91,500 level. From a probabilistic standpoint, the baseline scenario remains that volatility continues to converge, and the likelihood of a strong breakout immediately after the FOMC is relatively limited."

According to the RootData calendar page, next week includes several important news items such as project updates, macroeconomic finance, token unlocks, incentive activities, and presale events. Details are as follows:December 8:Stable mainnet launch.December 9:U.S. November New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations released;MOVE unlocks 50 million tokens, valued at $2.2463 million, accounting for 1.786% of the circulating supply.December 10:U.S. 10-year Treasury auction results - winning yield announced as of December 9.December 11:Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision and economic projections summary;Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference;BMEX unlocks 3.125 million tokens, valued at $395,900, accounting for 3.133% of the circulating supply;MOCA unlocks 205.679 million tokens, valued at $4.6295 million, accounting for 5.210% of the circulating supply;IO unlocks 14.1403 million tokens, valued at $2.6653 million, accounting for 5.658% of the circulating supply;BMT unlocks 21.1063 million tokens, valued at $557,200, accounting for 8.235% of the circulating supply.December 12:APT unlocks 10.935 million tokens, valued at $19.5737 million, accounting for 1.486% of the circulating supply;W unlocks 40.3185 million tokens, valued at $1.6453 million, accounting for 0.800% of the circulating supply;2026 FOMC voting member, Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaks on economic outlook;2026 FOMC voting member, Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks.December 13:TAO block reward halved.December 14:PUFFER unlocks 19.1667 million tokens, valued at $1.5398 million, accounting for 5.935% of the circulating supply.Additionally, there is a share button at the top of the RootData calendar page that allows users to share important events.Risk Warning: This calendar does not constitute any investment advice.