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BTC $64,962.47 -1.07%
ETH $1,880.85 -2.37%
BNB $565.98 -0.68%
XRP $1.11 -2.54%
SOL $75.34 -3.12%
TRX $0.3313 +1.01%
DOGE $0.0697 -3.67%
ADA $0.1663 -4.82%
BCH $210.16 -2.82%
LINK $8.46 -1.85%
HYPE $58.44 -1.06%
AAVE $95.63 -1.52%
SUI $0.7325 -4.55%
XLM $0.1824 -1.33%
ZEC $500.33 -2.90%

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Flash

Analysis: The profit supply ratio of Bitcoin is approaching 60%, but it is still too early to confirm a bull market

The overall profitability status of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data shows that it is still insufficient to confirm that a new bull market has begun, and there remains a risk of another decline. CryptoQuant data shows that the Bitcoin Supply in Profit has risen to 57.5%. This indicator represents the proportion of BTC supply in the current market where the price is above the holding cost, which has significantly rebounded from the low of 46.2% on June 30, 2026, and is currently close to 60%.However, the recovery of the profitable supply ratio still requires continuous verification. Historical cycles show that the true end of a bear market usually requires two conditions to be met simultaneously: first, the 30-day simple moving average of the Long-Term Holder Profit and Loss Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must remain above 1 for an extended period without falling below it; second, the Bitcoin Supply in Profit must stabilize above 64%. Analysts indicate that this cycle has previously experienced a "false breakout." From April 28 to June 1 of this year, the average LTH-SOPR was above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while the profitable supply ratio once rose to 67%, but the market subsequently declined again. Currently, the Long-Term Holder 30-day SMA indicator has been below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, which remains an important risk signal for assessing the strength of market recovery. Although the BTC profitable supply ratio is improving, the market needs further confirmation of the behavior of long-term holders and changes in the profit structure to determine whether the current rebound truly marks the beginning of a new upward cycle.
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