4E: Bitcoin erases its gains for the year, with soaring correlation and a retreat of funds suppressing the market
In the context of an intensified crypto bear market and a cooling risk appetite, Bitcoin has completely erased all gains since the end of last year. In the early hours of Monday, BTC fell below $93,600, reaching below the opening price at the beginning of the year. Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan pointed out that major buyers—including ETF allocators and institutional debt allocators—have been continuously withdrawing over the past month, leading to the emergence of the capital outflow effect that originally supported BTC's all-time highs. In just 41 days, the total market capitalization of the crypto market has evaporated by $1.1 trillion. Although the current liquidation scale is about 10% lower than the peak on October 10, the risk sentiment remains fragile.At the same time, the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. tech stocks has rapidly increased. Data from the Kobeissi Letter shows that the 30-day correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 has risen to 0.80, a new high since 2022, with a five-year correlation also reaching 0.54. Bitcoin is behaving more like a "high-beta tech stock" rather than an independent macro hedge asset.While sentiment is under pressure, external structural changes are also worth noting. The global ETF issuance reached 137 new funds in October, with 15 new cryptocurrency ETFs, more than double that of September. The total number of global ETFs issued this year has reached 918, and it is expected to exceed 1,100 for the entire year, setting a new historical record.In terms of market views, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee emphasized that although BTC has experienced multiple rounds of deep declines, it is still in a super cycle level over the past decade, and he believes Ethereum is entering a similar path. Arete Capital partner McKenna pointed out that BTC may have a short-term downside risk of up to 31%, with key support levels at $96,200, $93,300, and the $86,000-$91,000 range. He expects that it may be difficult to reach new highs within 2025, but with institutional accumulation and ETF capital driving it, BTC is expected to break through $200,000 before the end of Trump's term.4E reminds investors: The market is currently under "triple pressure" from macro risk aversion, capital withdrawal, and increased correlation with tech stocks. The mid-to-long-term logic for BTC remains unchanged, but short-term volatility may continue to amplify, necessitating attention to capital flows, changes in correlation, and the stability of key support areas.