indicators

A macro model combining the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the Chinese 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y × CN10Y) has recently shown an "extremely accurate" bullish crossover signal, which may provide guidance for the next round of Bitcoin's rise. Historical data indicates that this indicator has issued similar signals before bull markets in 2013, 2017, 2020-2021, and 2023, corresponding to Bitcoin price increases of approximately 8700%, 1900%, 600%, and over 350%, respectively.In addition, on-chain data also shows that whale addresses (wallets holding 1000-10000 BTC) have re-entered an accumulation phase during the recent price pullback, similar to behaviors observed near previous market bottoms. Analysis suggests that if Bitcoin stabilizes and rebounds near the 200-week moving average, the price may test $100,000 around August. However, if it fails to break through the key resistance level of $78,000, there remains a risk of forming a "bull trap."

Coinbase Institutional posted on social media that the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric can measure whether recent buyers are selling their assets at a profit or a loss. This helps us understand whether newcomers are panic selling, a dynamic that typically flushes out "weak hands" and cleanly resets spot positions.Since late February, the SOPR metrics for short-term holders of Bitcoin and Ethereum have both shown a rebound, indicating that recent spot demand has been strong enough to absorb the selling pressure, demonstrating that market positions are more resilient.

Analyst @alicharts recently posted that the death cross of the 50 and 200 simple moving averages on the Bitcoin 3-day K-line chart occurred on February 27, which historically often signals the final decline phase of a bear market.The article cites historical data since 2014, noting that Bitcoin has dropped about 50% after this indicator appeared in each bear market cycle.

According to Cointelegraph, analyst Yashu Gola stated that the current technical indicators and on-chain data both point to short-term downside risks for Bitcoin.A typical "bear flag" pattern is forming on the Bitcoin daily chart. This structure began with a "flagpole" that dropped sharply to the $60,000 area, followed by price consolidation within a converging trend line, consistently pressured by key moving averages, with weak momentum.If the price clearly breaks below the lower boundary of the flag, it could further test the $56,000 level within two months, representing a decline of about 20% from the current level. Conversely, if it breaks above the upper boundary around $72,700 (coinciding with the 20-day moving average), it could invalidate this bearish structure.On-chain data platform CryptoQuant shows that the Bitcoin "whale inflow ratio" (7-day average) has surged to a historic high of 0.619, well above the 0.40 at the beginning of the month. This indicator tracks the total inflow of the top ten transactions, and its rise is typically interpreted as increased selling pressure from whales.Meanwhile, the Greed and Fear Index is signaling a potential "bottoming signal": the 21-day moving average has crossed below the zero line and is now turning upwards. Historically, this combination often appears alongside a "sustained bottom," and while a brief downturn cannot be ruled out, the possibility of a rebound is accumulating.

CryptoQuant data shows that the Bitcoin price has fallen below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a significant moving average divergence reflecting a correction or "repricing" phase following the previous uptrend. Additionally, CryptoQuant's Price Z-Score is currently -1.6, indicating that the Bitcoin price is below the statistical mean, which typically suggests increased selling pressure and weakened trend momentum. Historically, similar ranges have often corresponded to longer bottoming periods rather than quick rebounds.In the derivatives market, crypto analyst Darkfost pointed out that the seller-dominated pattern is strengthening. Data shows that last Sunday, the monthly net active trading volume (Net Taker Volume) turned significantly negative to -$272 million, while the active buy-sell ratio on Binance dropped below 1, indicating a significant increase in market selling pressure. Currently, futures trading volume is still significantly higher than spot inflows, and the market needs stronger spot buying to trigger a rebound.

According to Cointelegraph, despite Bitcoin's price rebounding above $76,000, multiple indicators suggest that its downward trend may not be over yet.Technical analysis shows that the BTC/USD weekly chart has confirmed the formation of a head and shoulders pattern. After breaking below the $82,000 neckline support, its theoretical downside target points to around $52,650. Additionally, a bearish flag pattern has also been confirmed on the daily chart, with analysts noting that the next key liquidity target is around $65,500.Analyst BitcoinHabebe believes that, under macro headwinds, a drop to $60,000 for Bitcoin is "obvious." On-chain indicators also point to weakness. The Puell Multiple, which tracks miner income, has entered the "discount zone" and may remain there, with analysts noting that this typically indicates a continuation of the bearish trend.At the same time, Bitcoin's total network hash rate has dropped 12% from its peak in November 2025, marking the largest decline since 2021, suggesting a potential miner capitulation. Furthermore, on-chain data shows a significant inflow of BTC into Binance, with a cumulative inflow of 56,000 to 59,000 BTC on February 4 and 5, which may create actual selling pressure in the spot market, indicating that the market may be entering a panic selling phase.

According to Glassnode data, approximately 11.1 million BTC are currently in profit (i.e., the purchase cost is lower than the current market price), while about 8.9 million BTC are in loss.As the gap between the two continues to narrow, the comparison of BTC supply in profit versus supply in loss is approaching a key convergence range that has historically occurred multiple times. This indicator measures the number of wallets currently in a paper profit state against the number of wallets in a loss state.When the two gradually tend to balance, it often corresponds to market phase bottom areas in history, regarded as an important signal for market capitulation and long-term positioning opportunities. If the profit and loss supply further converges, it may indicate that the market is entering a phase of constructing a historical cycle bottom, but it still requires a comprehensive judgment considering factors such as macro liquidity, derivatives structure, and market sentiment.

According to Cointelegraph, the price of Ethereum is facing further downside risks. The technical analysis shows that ETH has entered a typical "Inverse Cup and Handle" breakout phase, and if the pattern completes, the target price points to around $1665, indicating about a 25% downside from the current level. From the trend, ETH broke below the neckline of approximately $2960 in January, subsequently rebounding to test that level but facing resistance and falling back, while failing to regain the 20-day and 50-day EMA, both of which have turned into significant overhead pressure.Multiple technical signals resonate, reinforcing the expectation of continued short-term declines. On-chain data is also bearish. The extreme deviation range of MVRV indicates that ETH's potential downside target is around $1725, and further declines cannot be ruled out. Historically, ETH has often gradually bottomed out and started to rebound after touching or breaking below the lower MVRV boundary. On a macro level, market risk appetite for crypto assets is declining, with some traders concerned that a similar overall correction to past "four-year cycles" may occur in 2026; at the same time, expectations of a potential "AI bubble" burst are also prompting funds to avoid high-risk assets, exacerbating the downward pressure on ETH.

According to CoinDesk, the options market shows a significant downward skew, with a 30% probability that Bitcoin will drop below $80,000 by June 26, while the probability of rising above $120,000 during the same period is 19%.The report states that there is a high concentration of open contracts for put options with strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000 on the Derive and Deribit platforms, indicating that the market expects prices to fall to the mid-$70,000s.Note: The options skew (a measure of the price difference between call and put options) remains negative, indicating that there is a downside risk in the short term.

Renowned crypto analyst @IamCryptoWolf posted on the X platform, stating that the weekly RSI indicator for the BTC/GOLD ratio is currently at an oversold level of about 27.54, which historically has led to strong rebounds of BTC relative to gold.The chart shows that since 2013, similar key reversal points (such as in 2015 and 2018) have led to the BTC/GOLD ratio rising over 100% multiple times. Market data by the end of 2025 indicates that this ratio has reached a three-year low, and analysts believe that the macroeconomic environment may drive BTC to outperform gold further in 2026.@IamCryptoWolf published his analytical views on the Tradingview platform in 2014 and has 113,000 followers on the X platform. The analyst mentioned earlier in November that "Ethereum will still have adjustments in November, and if it falls below $3100, a bear market will begin."

According to Beincrypto, as of December 22, Bitcoin has remained in the range of $88,000 to $90,000, but multiple on-chain market structure indicators show that downside risks are increasing, and the market may be entering the distribution phase at the end of the cycle.Five major warning signs:Slowing demand growth: Apparent demand growth is slowing, with price strength mainly relying on leverage rather than spot buying.Weakened ETF inflows: Inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have significantly slowed down since Q4 2025.Medium-sized investors reducing positions: The holdings of wallets containing 100 to 1,000 BTC have seen an increased year-over-year decline.Decreasing funding rates: Funding rates across major exchanges are trending downward, indicating weakened leverage demand.Falling below the 365-day moving average: This is the first sustained drop below this long-term trend indicator since early 2022.Historical data shows that if a bear market takes shape, a Bitcoin price of around $56,000 may become a long-term support range.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Mester stated that inflation indicators lag behind rent inflation.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on the X platform that the Bitcoin market is currently in a correction phase, having retraced 30% from its historical peak. The on-chain indicators STH SOPR and P/L Block indicate that market participants are realizing losses, and the current market is facing localized pressure.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel posted on social media that Bitcoin has restored its bullish structure after pulling back to the $80,000 level. This trend is set against the backdrop of the market having almost fully priced in the Federal Reserve's third consecutive rate cut, which will improve financial conditions and open a window for further asset appreciation, provided that Powell has not released any hawkish surprises.Since the pullback to the $80,000 range from the peak in October, the price has shown a steady upward trend over the past 14 days. The key signal is that the slope of the 200-day moving average (DMA) (blue bars) has turned positive for the first time in a month, indicating that short-term bullish momentum has returned. The current price has risen above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, confirming the trend. The 52-week high (orange line) constitutes a key resistance level—once broken, it will open up space for further gains.

According to Cointelegraph, analyst TXMC stated that the technical indicator Liveliness is on the rise, which historically usually represents bull market activity and may indicate that the current market cycle is not yet over.TXMC said, "Despite the price decline, the Liveliness in this cycle continues to rise, indicating that the demand for spot Bitcoin is supporting the bottom, just not yet reflected in the price movement."The analyst explained that this indicator is similar to a long-term moving average of on-chain activity, comparing the cumulative spending and holding behavior of all cycles on-chain. He added, "When tokens are generally traded more on-chain, this indicator rises; when more are held, it falls, weighted by the time of these tokens. In a bull market, Liveliness typically rises because supply changes hands at higher price levels, indicating that new capital is continuously being injected."

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that most on-chain Bitcoin indicators are currently showing a bearish trend. Without macro liquidity support, the market will enter a bear market cycle.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that most on-chain Bitcoin indicators are currently showing a bearish trend. Without macro liquidity support, the market will enter a bear market cycle.

CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform that Bitcoin's on-chain indicators are showing bearish signals, and the subsequent upward momentum may depend on macro liquidity.