oversold

Fairlead Strategies Managing Partner Katie Stockton stated that Bitcoin is no longer in an oversold state, but it has not yet reached an overbought state. She pointed out that Bitcoin broke through the 200-day moving average in May, and a potential breakout may be imminent. Last week, Bitcoin began to rise due to news that the U.S. Treasury would at least double the scale of liquidity support repurchase operations, with a 7-day increase of over 22%, and the latest trading price is around $78,915, having previously surpassed $81,000 on Monday.For most of June and July, Bitcoin traded below $65,000 and experienced the lowest volatility in 17 years. Analysts believe that the so-called "devaluation trade" may heat up again, where investors buy assets when they believe fiat currencies are devaluing. The dollar declined after the Treasury's announcement, while gold and Bitcoin rose accordingly. U.S. investors re-entered Bitcoin ETFs last week, with inflows nearing $2 billion.Additionally, President Trump met with crypto executives at the White House last week, stating that pushing the Clarity Act through would keep the U.S. ahead. The bill was originally scheduled for a vote in August but has now been postponed to September, and it will establish a framework for distinguishing between securities, commodities, and payment stablecoins in digital assets.

Real Vision founder Raoul Pal stated that the charts he closely monitors show that Bitcoin has entered an oversold zone of more than two standard deviations relative to the Nasdaq and is currently rising rapidly. He mentioned that he will continue to observe but believes that in the long term, crypto assets should outperform the Nasdaq.Raoul Pal pointed out that such long-term structural trends are of significant reference value for asset allocation. This view is based on the relative strength performance of Bitcoin against the Nasdaq.

According to a chart released by independent analyst Markus Thielen, there is a clear divergence signal between Bitcoin's price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI recently fell to the 30% oversold range, then rebounded to about 50%, while the BTC price also rose from near its low to about $64,645.It is noteworthy that the purple downward trend line in the chart indicates that since the peak in June 2025 (around $125,000), BTC has been in a downward channel, and the current price is still under pressure from this resistance line. Whether it can effectively break through will be key to judging the subsequent trend.

According to ChaoXiang Research, Morgan Stanley's stock strategy report on July 20 pointed out that AI-related stocks have faced fierce selling in recent weeks, with the South Korean stock market dropping 25% from its peak, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 20%. Individual stocks like Samsung and Micron have seen declines between 20% and 50%. The report believes that the core driving force behind this round of decline is technical factors and position clearing, with no deterioration in fundamentals. The gap between relative prices and relative earnings trends in semiconductors continues to widen, but the supply-demand tight balance for DRAM and NAND is expected to last until 2028. DRAM spot prices remain high, and Micron has also raised its performance guidance, indicating that supply-demand tightness will last at least until 2027. The RSI of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is nearing the oversold zone, and the accumulated momentum gains for the year have basically been retraced.Morgan Stanley believes that once the oversold signal is confirmed, a rebound window will open, and it suggests that investors gradually position themselves in semiconductors during the summer. The proportion of second-quarter earnings reports exceeding expectations reached 97%, and companies in the S&P 500 that reported better-than-expected earnings outperformed the market by an average of 1.7 percentage points on the day of the report. In terms of allocation, Morgan Stanley has raised its equity allocation from 60% to 65%, increased its Eurozone allocation from 8.7% to 11%, and is overweight in sectors such as semiconductors, mining, capital goods, automotive, insurance, and banking, while underweighting software, business services, and media in the "AI erosion group." Regarding geopolitical conflicts, the report believes that the "buying on dips" strategy since the end of March remains effective.

Jack Yi stated that the weekly level of Bitcoin is still in a downtrend, and in the short term, attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through 68,000 USD.He believes that only by strongly standing above 68,000 USD can a more significant reversal in the market occur; if the breakout fails, the price may once again test the bottom, and there is a risk of falling below 47,000 USD that needs to be monitored.

BIT's weekly report indicates that with the announcement of a ceasefire, inflationary pressures have risen, and the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair is also in a phase of heightened transition expectations. Logically, these factors combined should have led to more significant market fluctuations, but Bitcoin's overall response remains relatively limited. The market's muted reaction to multiple variables coming into play is noteworthy.From a geopolitical perspective, the ceasefire arrangement promoted by Trump still faces considerable uncertainty in its actual implementation. Iran's influence in the passage arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz remains strong, and related shipping traffic is significantly below normal levels.From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is in a clearly oversold range, with some indicators beginning to show marginal recovery. However, it is still too early to conclude that the downward trend has ended based solely on these signals. In 2022, a similar oversold condition lasted for several months, during which there were moments of rebound signals, but ultimately failed to form an effective reversal. More important than whether the indicators rebound is which price level will trigger a market repricing, as well as the outcomes of two key events next week.

In response to community users asking why oil prices have recently fallen while Bitcoin prices have shown a parabolic rise, crypto analyst Willy Woo stated that current oil prices are returning to the mean from a previous overbought state, while Bitcoin is showing a mean reversion trend from a locally oversold level. This change is more of a short-term technical adjustment and "does not require excessive interpretation."

Raoul Pal posted on the X platform that, despite the frustration surrounding cryptocurrencies and the purely technical analysts believing the market has ended, he disagrees. Global liquidity is the most important macro factor in history, with a correlation of 90% with BTC since 2012 and a correlation of 97% with NDX. Its annual growth rate is about 10%, with no signs of slowing down.GMI's financial condition leads global liquidity by about 6 months and remains accommodative. Overall liquidity in the U.S. has been suppressed during the standstill, becoming a bearish range. This indicator leads cryptocurrencies by about 3 months and has begun to accelerate since the low point three months ago. The business cycle is a key driver of earnings and risk, showing an accelerating trend.eSLR is the mechanism by which banks enhance liquidity through credit and absorbing government bond issuance. This liquidity is also on the rise and will further accelerate. Tax refunds entering bank balance sheets enhance the tendency for credit creation, thereby increasing liquidity. The U.S. will further cut interest rates, increasing disposable income and thereby raising risk appetite.The CLARITY Act is expected to pass, driving funds into the market. Many banks and asset management firms are eager to use this technology, and this act will address that. Stablecoins are accelerating in development, with issuance increasing by 50% last year and still accelerating. Trading volumes have reached trillions of dollars and continue to rise.The U.S. government's support for cryptocurrencies has reached an all-time high. Eventually, agencies will be put in place, greatly accelerating market development and creating a whole new total addressable market. The crypto market remains in a state of panic, with most indicators showing it is at one of the most oversold stages in history.The weekly DeMark indicator will provide very solid support in two weeks (this indicator is now available on Trading View). The daily DeMark indicator is also in an overlapping state. Any weakness that appears will complete the daily and weekly indicators, indicating the potential for a full trend reversal. The risk factor lies in how long oil prices remain high. The next two weeks are a key focus period. He believes the aforementioned factors will yield positive results, with expectations for further upward movement.

According to The Block, K33 pointed out in its latest analysis report that Bitcoin has entered the most extreme weekly oversold range in history after experiencing several months of selling pressure. This selling pressure primarily came from long-term holders and institutional investors, but recently, these selling pressures have begun to ease, and the market is showing signs of temporary stability.K33 noted that historical data shows that after similar extreme bearish cycles, Bitcoin often experiences a phase of rebound. The bottom formation phase still requires time, but extreme overselling, derivative deleveraging, and the recovery of long-term supply all point to a potential phase of rebound.However, the options market shows strong bearish sentiment, with investors paying high premiums for downside protection. The negative funding rates indicate that there is still ongoing demand for deleveraging among bulls or for establishing short positions.

10 Research published on platform X indicates that the current structure of the cryptocurrency market is changing. Altcoins overall remain relatively weak, while Bitcoin is in an oversold zone. However, at the same time, the market positions for crypto stocks and some selected altcoins are quietly shifting, with certain assets starting to outperform. Among them, Optimism (OP) is under pressure, with OP-USDT currently breaking below the 7-day and 30-day moving averages, showing a bearish technical outlook, and experiencing a decline of 24.4% over the past week.Additionally, the Base blockchain is gradually separating from the OP Stack, which means that the previous revenue-sharing partnership between the two has ended. Optimism has officially launched its first monthly token buyback plan, committing to use 50% of the remaining Superchain revenue to repurchase OP in the open market. The liquid staking protocol ether.fi has migrated all of its non-custodial operations to the OP mainnet to leverage its enterprise-grade scalability, providing some fundamental support for OP.

The founder of the Liebit Mining Pool (B.TOP), Jiang Zhuoer, stated that Yi Lihua continues to sell ETH to reduce leverage, predicting that the purpose is to lower the liquidation line to around 1500 (USD).Currently, this bomb has basically been defused. ETH has endured a concentrated reduction of 220,000 ETH in the last 13 hours, yet it remains oscillating around the 1900 line, indicating strong buying pressure in the market and a strong intention to repair the oversold condition. According to previous news, Jiang Zhuoer mentioned this morning that the current decline has been severely oversold, and he has bottomed out ETH at 1850 USD, noting that such an oversold condition is an opportunity that occurs only once in a year.

The founder of the Liebit Mining Pool (B.TOP), Jiang Zhuoer, stated on his social platform this morning that the cryptocurrency market "has experienced a severe oversell since the drop on January 28, and there is a demand for recovery and adjustment in the medium term." Jiang Zhuoer also mentioned that he has "bottomed out ETH at $1850, with a stop loss at $1790, and the take profit is not yet determined; let's wait and see. Such an oversell is an opportunity that only occurs on a yearly basis, and not making a profit would be a big loss." Jiang Zhuoer's Liebit Mining Pool was once one of the top Bitcoin mining pools globally, ranking first in network hash rate during the peak of the bull market at the end of 2017.

Bitcoin has just recorded its largest weekly decline since the FTX collapse at the end of 2022, and the weekly RSI has risen to (or touched) levels above the pressure point following the FTX event. It is important to note that an RSI bottom does not necessarily mean that prices will bottom out simultaneously, but it does indicate that the current market is in a severely oversold condition.

JPMorgan stated that momentum indicators show Bitcoin futures are oversold, while gold and silver futures are overbought, reflecting significant positions by institutional and momentum traders in precious metals.The bank noted that since then, retail investors have shifted from Bitcoin to gold and silver, and pointed out that based on the increasing allocations from private investors and central banks, the long-term price expectation for gold is between $8,000 and $8,500 per ounce.

According to a report by The Block, JPMorgan analysts indicate that Bitcoin futures appear to be oversold, while gold and silver futures have entered the overbought territory, as investors are increasingly favoring precious metals over Bitcoin in both retail and institutional channels.Despite the short-term risks facing precious metals, analysts remain optimistic about gold's long-term prospects. They state that the allocation ratio of gold is continuously rising among both private investors and central banks. Analysts reiterate that if households continue to replace long-term bonds with gold as a hedge against stocks, the allocation ratio of private investors to gold could rise from the current slightly above 3% to about 4.6% in the coming years. In this scenario, analysts believe that the theoretical price range for gold could reach between $8,000 and $8,500 per ounce.

Renowned crypto analyst @IamCryptoWolf posted on the X platform, stating that the weekly RSI indicator for the BTC/GOLD ratio is currently at an oversold level of about 27.54, which historically has led to strong rebounds of BTC relative to gold.The chart shows that since 2013, similar key reversal points (such as in 2015 and 2018) have led to the BTC/GOLD ratio rising over 100% multiple times. Market data by the end of 2025 indicates that this ratio has reached a three-year low, and analysts believe that the macroeconomic environment may drive BTC to outperform gold further in 2026.@IamCryptoWolf published his analytical views on the Tradingview platform in 2014 and has 113,000 followers on the X platform. The analyst mentioned earlier in November that "Ethereum will still have adjustments in November, and if it falls below $3100, a bear market will begin."

According to Cointelegraph, traders expect a short-term rebound for Bitcoin, as data shows that the relative strength index (RSI) for BTC/USD is in an extremely "oversold" state, having dropped to its lowest level in nearly three years.Bitcoin has fallen 36% from its all-time high of $126,000 to $80,500, significantly impacting the RSI indicator on higher time frames. On the weekly chart, the RSI has dropped from a local high of 64 in September to its current level of 35, which was last seen in January 2023 when Bitcoin was trading around $15,500-$17,000.Analyst Jelle stated, "Historically, when the weekly RSI reaches this level, it is worth paying attention." He added, "Either we are close to the bottom, or we will soon experience a larger downward movement." Mister Crypto pointed out in a post on X on Friday that Bitcoin's stochastic RSI shows its oversold level is the deepest it has been throughout the entire cycle, indicating that "the possibility of a short-term rebound is very high."

Agent Garrett Jin stated that historically, the ETH/NASDAQ 100 index ratio has often bottomed around 0.11, which coincides with the RSI approaching the 30 "oversold" zone, indicating that ETH is in a bottom range. Looking ahead, the probability of Ethereum outperforming the NASDAQ 100 index in the coming months is increasing, with a target ratio between 0.16 and 0.22, suggesting an upside potential of approximately 50% to 100%.Given the high correlation between Ethereum and the NASDAQ 100 index, significant divergence is unlikely to persist. Mean reversion is inevitable, especially in the broader policy context where the U.S. may restart quantitative easing, directly distribute cash stimulus to households, and where SEC Chairman Gary Gensler is accelerating the migration of U.S. stocks on-chain to Ethereum. Additionally, the weekly chart shows that the relative strength index (RSI) of BTC/NASDAQ 100 index is severely oversold. The current RSI falling below 30 also indicates that Bitcoin is about to enter a strong bull market.Earlier reports indicated that the "BTC OG insider whale," which had been dormant for 8 years, once held over 50,000 BTC. Its operations have repeatedly synchronized with Trump's statements and U.S. policy trends, including a $500 million BTC short position set just hours before the "10.11" crash, yielding nearly $100 million in profit and attracting market attention. BitForex CEO Garrett Jin indicated that this address is associated with his clients. Furthermore, after the "BTC OG insider whale" increased its positions in ETH and SOL yesterday, the current prices have now fallen below the average price of their recent purchases. The current unrealized losses on long positions continue to expand, with total unrealized losses reaching $78.3 million and total position size around $694 million, with only $15.92 million in margin remaining. Its main long positions are: 5x ETH long position: position size $573 million, average price $3,147, unrealized loss $66.77 million (-58%), liquidation price $2,150; 5x BTC long position: position size $85.18 million, average price $91,500, unrealized loss $6.32 million (-37%); 20x SOL long position: position size $31.57 million, average price $135, unrealized loss $5.21 million (-292%).

Cryptocurrency analyst @ali_charts posted on social media that Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the extreme oversold territory. In the last two similar situations, the market quickly rebounded.

According to Jinshi News, Janney Montgomery Scott Chief Investment Strategist Mark Luschini stated that the adjustment in the U.S. stock market that began in late October does not seem to be completely over. The market has shown oversold conditions, creating the potential for a technical rebound, but the upcoming economic data will be a decisive factor. This data, which may affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, will determine the strength of the rebound or whether a deeper correction is needed to attract buyers.