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According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 62.1%, while the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 37.9%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 15.1%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 56.2%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 28.7%.

According to Jinshi reports, the European Central Bank has kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.25%, in line with market expectations, while the main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate remain unchanged at 2.40% and 2.65%, respectively.

According to the Korea JoongAng Daily, the daily trading volume of South Korea's five major won virtual asset exchanges totals approximately 412.7 billion won, a decrease of 88% compared to a year ago. The total market value of global virtual assets has also shrunk by 41% to $2.322 trillion. The country's leading cryptocurrency firm Dunamu reported a year-on-year decline in revenue and operating profit of 55% and 78%, respectively, in the first quarter.Small and medium-sized exchanges are in an even more difficult situation, with Coinone, Korbit, and Gopax, which recorded operating losses last year, expected to continue losing money this year. Korbit has sold its holdings three times this year, selling 15 bitcoins and 60 ethers within ten days this month, generating approximately 1.6 billion won in cash. A director from Tiger Research stated that the current situation can be seen as a "second crypto winter," with the total market value of cryptocurrencies significantly shrinking and new projects almost nonexistent.Despite the market downturn, institutions are accelerating their adoption of blockchain, focusing on tokenized assets and stablecoins. Major brokerages like Future Asset have recently acquired shares in exchanges, and the government has repeatedly expressed its determination to advance the legislation of the "Digital Asset Basic Law," reflecting a continued optimism about medium- to long-term growth potential.

Founder of Strategy Michael Saylor published a post opposing the BIP 110 proposal that restricts the use of inscriptions and other data storage purposes. Bitcoin should adhere to neutrality, open markets, and permissionless innovation, and should not target specific uses through consensus rules.Saylor listed 110 reasons for opposition, emphasizing that Bitcoin should remain conservative at its core. Bitcoin does not need guardians of purity; it needs guardians of neutrality.

According to Gate market data, South Korea's semiconductor leader SK Hynix (000660) is currently priced at $1245.42, down 11.52%; Samsung Electronics (005930) is currently priced at $172.47, down 8.76%, with the semiconductor sector overall weakening. According to CoinGlass data, the SKHYNIX contract open interest on the Gate platform reached $26.36 million, with a 24-hour trading volume of $56.49 million; the SAMSUNG contract open interest reached $2.67 million, with a 24-hour trading volume of $5.40 million, with related indicators ranking among the industry's top.

According to Jinshi reports, TruStage Chief Economist Steve Rick stated in a report that the U.S. PPI data is below market expectations, which is a positive development for the Federal Reserve. He pointed out that this indicates inflation may be gradually approaching the Federal Reserve's target, further reinforcing market expectations that policymakers can maintain interest rates without considering further rate hikes.Although the fight against inflation is not over, the softening price data means the Federal Reserve has taken a step forward in achieving a better balance between price stability and maintaining a healthy labor market.

According to Jinshi News, ECB Governing Council member Panetta stated that the European Central Bank's goal in considering future interest rate decisions is to maintain the stability of inflation expectations and limit the indirect and secondary effects of shocks.

Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin stated that Ethereum L1 transaction fees should remain low to promote ecosystem growth. It is expected that in the next 2 to 3 years, tens of thousands of companies will deploy on Ethereum L1, L2, and permissioned EVM networks, achieving cross-layer interoperability.Lubin believes that large-scale adoption will enhance the monetary premium of ETH and the total transaction fee revenue of L1. At the same time, staking and other locking mechanisms will reduce circulating supply. If ETH returns to a net destruction state, its value is expected to rise further.

Multicoin Capital Managing Partner Tushar Jain stated that the crypto market has bottomed out and entered a turning point, with current market sentiment truly reaching a low. Recent major hacking incidents and other news have not triggered large-scale sell-offs, application adoption rates continue to rise, and prices have become disconnected from fundamentals.He maintains a long-term optimistic view on Solana, believing that SOL is the correct architecture for spot trading and tokenized securities; he is also optimistic about Hyperliquid's leading position in the derivatives space, currently holding significant positions in both. Regarding ZEC, he mentioned that Multicoin has accumulated a considerable proportion of the supply and believes it represents a return to the "crypto-punk" values of the industry, with the potential to enter the top five by market capitalization.In terms of position management, he employs a "three-part method": immediately buying one-third, dollar-cost averaging the second one-third, and keeping the final one-third as flexible funds to respond to major declines. After confirming that no hackers exploited the Zcash code vulnerability incident, the team significantly increased their positions.

Founder of Strategy, Michael Saylor, stated that Bitcoin is a spontaneously evolved network system, where the influence of wallets is determined by the amount of satoshis held, the influence of nodes is determined by business activities, the influence of miners is determined by computing power, and capital, consensus, and network security together maintain a dynamic balance.

Vitalik posted on the X platform, stating that AI 2040 and its critics have incompatible worldviews regarding the speed and significance of AI progress. AI 2040 believes that unless strong measures are taken to completely prevent it, some form of superintelligence will emerge in various scenarios by 2040; critics argue that AI 2040 underestimates human coordination capabilities and threatens freedom, but do not view ASI itself as a risk of power concentration.He believes that if he were convinced that the current form of AI is just an ordinary technology, he would be closer to the critics' camp; if he were convinced that superintelligence would inevitably arrive by 2030, he would be closer to the AI 2040 camp. At the same time, due to significant uncertainty, he remains open to the idea of slowing down or pausing, and feels uncomfortable with the stance proposed by some large AI companies and intellectuals that "open source is detrimental, and the ideal outcome is to maintain global control dominance."Vitalik stated that an important reason he supports the d/acc platform is that directions such as formal verification, cryptography, secure and open hardware, pandemic resilience, defensive biotechnology, food and basic resource security, public cognitive systems, and non-concentrated power physical security are worth promoting under both worldviews. He also mentioned that the 2040 plan has increasingly supported open source and incorporated the idea of "mutual assured destruction of computational power," which is an improvement compared to allowing a few participants to selectively deprive their identified subjects of rights.There is no way to avoid trade-offs regarding whether to slow down or pause, and Vitalik believes that trigger conditions can be preset, allowing for a more open attitude towards slowing down or pausing when sufficient conditions are met within a specific timeframe.He also stated that if he were Elon Musk or Zuck, he would significantly transform Twitter into a platform that helps identify and facilitate such large win-win agreements, encouraging more people to participate in discussions, but he thinks this might also be naive. Currently, he does not see any non-naive ASI transition response plans, so he tends to show some tolerance towards those who are trying.

According to The Block, Standard Chartered stated that it maintains its price prediction of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026. The recent market decline triggered by movements related to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is not due to a deterioration of the company's balance sheet, but rather a failure of the strategic adjustments to be fully understood by the market.Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, pointed out in a report that Strategy's recent behavior is disrupting short-term market expectations for Bitcoin. The market had previously accepted the narrative of the company "never selling Bitcoin," but now Strategy seems to be shifting towards a more complex capital operation model. Whether this change can be clearly communicated will determine when market pressure eases.Currently, Strategy holds 843,775 Bitcoins, accounting for over 4% of the total supply of 21 million Bitcoins. Between 2020 and mid-2025, Strategy's mNAV (market value/Bitcoin asset value) has remained above 1, allowing the company to finance Bitcoin purchases through stock issuance and achieve shareholder value growth.The commitment to "never sell Bitcoin" is the core of this model gaining market recognition. However, as the current mNAV approaches 1, the leverage effect of this financing model is weakening. Kendrick believes that Strategy is transitioning from a "Bitcoin accumulation tool" to a "Bitcoin credit support tool," meaning it holds Bitcoin as the credit basis for its perpetual preferred stock STRC.STRC currently has a scale of about $10 billion, making it the largest financial instrument launched by Strategy, with an annualized dividend yield of 12%, paid in cash every half month, and its price maintained around the $100 par value through an interest rate adjustment mechanism. Standard Chartered stated that STRC is currently trading at about $90, while Strategy has a dollar reserve of about $2.55 billion for paying dividends, which can cover approximately 17.4 months of dividend expenses.Kendrick stated that the policy adjustment allowing the sale of Bitcoin does not necessarily mean the company will continue to sell. He believes that as long as the market believes the new capital structure arrangement can stabilize the STRC price, Strategy may not actually need to sell Bitcoin. He likened this mechanism to a central bank's commitment to "take action no matter what": restoring market confidence alone may mean that actual intervention might not occur at all.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor stated that after a decade of concerns about the lack of block space and controversies surrounding non-monetary uses, Bitcoin still does not have the so-called "spam transaction problem." Currently, the Bitcoin network transaction fee is about 1 sat/vB, and anyone can quickly transfer any amount of Bitcoin globally at a cost of approximately $0.3.The market's free mechanism has been addressing the challenges faced by Bitcoin block space.

Goldman Sachs' latest research report indicates that the upward trend in the South Korean stock market in the second half of the year is expected to spread from AI storage leaders like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to more industries such as energy, raw materials, and industrial manufacturing. Overseas funds are gradually positioning themselves in the upstream and downstream of the AI industry chain and other independent investment opportunities.In response to market concerns about a bubble in Korean stocks, Goldman Sachs believes that the current increase in financing balance is mainly due to the growth in the net value of leveraged ETFs, rather than new borrowing by investors. The assets of South Korean residents are still primarily in real estate, cash, and overseas stocks, and the domestic stock market still has room for incremental capital inflows.Goldman Sachs expects that the overall net profit of South Korean companies will grow by approximately 320% year-on-year in 2026, and will maintain a growth rate of about 35% in 2027. They maintain a target of 12,000 points for the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) over the next 12 months, which still represents more than a 20% upside from the current level, but they anticipate that market volatility will increase in the future.

According to Jinshi reports, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 77%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 23%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 41.9%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 47.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 10.5%.

According to Jinshi reports, Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for MiniMax Group, with a target price of 860 HKD.The report shows that the MiniMax M3 model is priced the same as the M2.7, and through upgrades in training and inference architecture, inference efficiency has improved by more than 2 times, enough to offset the cost increase brought by the doubling of model parameters. This week, DeepSeek announced that the official version of V4 is scheduled to launch in mid-July, and a time-based pricing mechanism will be implemented simultaneously, with peak period calling prices being 2 times the usual rate.Goldman Sachs believes that DeepSeek's price increase indirectly confirms the high cost-performance ratio of the MiniMax M3. The upcoming larger version of the M3 series and the H3 video model are also seen as catalysts for the next phase.

The U.S. stock-listed Bitcoin mining company Bitdeer disclosed that as of July 3, 2026, its own BTC holdings remain at 0, excluding customer deposits.This week, Bitdeer produced 223.1 BTC, sold 223.1 BTC, resulting in a net increase of 0 BTC. Bitdeer has disclosed its own BTC holdings as 0 since February 20, 2026, and it has continued for 19 weeks.

Strategy Investor Relations Director Chaitanya Jain stated that STRC is gradually recovering after a brief fluctuation.He mentioned that the company's goal is to maintain STRC's long-term trading price in the range of $99 to $100, and it will support this through variable dividend rates, continuous increases in dollar reserves, improving Bitcoin ratings, removing convertible bonds, implementing stock buybacks, and functional upgrades.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 68.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 31.5%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 35.7%, the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 49.2%, and the probability of a 50 basis point hike is 15.1%. By October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 27.8%, the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 46.2%, the probability of a 50 basis point hike is 22.6%, and the probability of a 75 basis point hike is 3.3%.