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Benchmark maintains a "Buy" rating on Metaplanet, but lowers the target price by more than 50%

According to The Block, Benchmark maintains a "buy" rating on Metaplanet but has lowered its target price by more than half, stating that the company's latest financial report highlights the "prospects and risks" of its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy.Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer, in a research report on Tuesday, reduced the target price for the Tokyo-listed Bitcoin reserve company from 2,400 yen to 1,100 yen. He wrote that recent performance shows the "hope and danger" of the company's Bitcoin-centric financial strategy. The stock is traded under the OTC code MTPLF in the U.S., currently priced at about $2.20, having briefly fallen to around $1.85 earlier this month, close to its lowest level since the company began its Bitcoin purchasing strategy in April 2024.Metaplanet reported a net loss of $619 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, primarily due to non-cash valuation losses from its holdings caused by the decline in Bitcoin prices late last year. Nevertheless, its operational performance has significantly improved, with revenue and profits increasing due to Bitcoin-related financial services activities.A core pillar of Benchmark's investment logic is Metaplanet's continuously expanding Bitcoin revenue-generating business, which generates income through Bitcoin-related options and yield strategies. Analysts believe this segment allows the company to pay dividends on newly issued perpetual preferred shares without selling its core Bitcoin holdings, thereby funding subsequent BTC purchases through operating cash flow rather than asset sales.The company added that investor demand for these preferred instruments will likely determine whether Metaplanet can successfully continue to expand its financial reserves while controlling dilution risk.

Benchmark lowers Coinbase's target price to $267, maintaining a "Buy" rating

According to The Block, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer has lowered the target price for Coinbase (COIN) from $421 to $267, a decrease of 37%, while reiterating a "buy" rating. This adjustment comes after the company announced its fourth-quarter financial results, which fell short of expectations due to an overall pullback in the crypto market, impacting both revenue and earnings.Palmer has reduced the fiscal year 2026 earnings per share (EPS) forecast by 21% to $5.34, with the EPS expectation for the first quarter of 2026 at $0.96, approximately 19% lower than the market consensus. However, based on the current stock price of about $164, the new target price still implies about 60% upside potential.The financial report shows that Coinbase's net revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 was $1.71 billion, a 5% decrease quarter-over-quarter; the GAAP net loss was $667 million, primarily due to an unrealized loss of $718 million on crypto asset holdings and a strategic investment loss of $395 million. Despite short-term pressures, Palmer noted that the company's business structure is becoming "more diversified and resilient":Institutional trading revenue increased by 37% quarter-over-quarter to $185 million, benefiting from the acquisition of the derivatives platform Deribit for $2.9 billion last August;Stablecoin revenue grew by 3% quarter-over-quarter to $364 million, with USDC average balances reaching an all-time high;Subscription and services revenue reached $727.4 million, accounting for about 43% of net revenue, with full-year subscription and services revenue increasing by 23% year-over-year to $2.8 billion.The company expects subscription and services revenue for the first quarter of 2026 to be between $550 million and $630 million, with trading revenue for the period as of February 10 estimated at about $420 million. As of the end of 2025, the company held $11.3 billion in cash and had repurchased $1.7 billion in stock in the fourth quarter and early February, with the board also approving an additional $2 billion repurchase authorization.
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