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first_img Tiger Research: Predicting that the market is becoming a macro data infrastructure

Research institution Tiger Research researcher Ryan Yoon released the final report of the prediction market series, discussing whether prediction markets have practical utility. The report states that participants bear the judgment results with funds, and prices are updated in real-time with new information, forming probability distributions comparable to traditional polls, expert surveys, and economic forecasts; prediction markets have expanded from sports and election predictions to macroeconomic and geopolitical data infrastructure.The report lists that Google Finance, CNBC, CNN, and The Wall Street Journal have displayed prediction market probabilities, and the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange, along with the electronic bond trading platform Tradeweb, distributes relevant data to institutional clients. A working paper from the Federal Reserve Board describes the prediction market Kalshi as a high-frequency, continuously updated benchmark with rich information distribution. The paper states that Kalshi's median and mode predictions for the federal funds rate recorded perfectly the day before the FOMC meeting and significantly outperformed federal funds futures during that period; compared to Bloomberg consensus, it is more accurate for overall CPI and statistically similar for core CPI and unemployment rate.The report also cites research from the Iowa Electronic Markets: in five U.S. presidential elections from 1988 to 2004, and in a comparison of 964 polls, it was more accurate in 74% of cases; the average voting share error one week before the election was 1.5 percentage points, lower than Gallup's final poll of 2.1 percentage points. The report suggests that the platform needs to deepen liquidity to resist manipulation, communicate with regulatory agencies, and position itself as a monitoring tool while maintaining open transparency and data supported by independent research.

Analysis: Brent crude oil continues to stay above 100 dollars, macro pressures may limit Bitcoin's upward potential

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that due to the ongoing tensions in the Gulf region and Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian refineries, Brent crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel. The rise in oil prices is transmitting through the global economy, pushing up production, service, and commodity costs, further permeating inflationary pressures into the economic system, and potentially increasing the risk of economic slowdown, thereby limiting market liquidity, especially for funds flowing into high-risk assets like Bitcoin.Darkfost pointed out that from a long-term trend perspective, when Brent crude oil remains above the annual average and enters a strong upward trend, BTC tends to show slower performance; conversely, when oil prices drop significantly, BTC is more likely to experience a recovery. However, he emphasized that this does not mean there is a simple direct causal relationship between oil prices and BTC; what truly affects risk assets is the macroeconomic environment accompanying high oil prices. In July of this year, oil prices briefly retreated, providing BTC with an opportunity to rise, but Brent crude has since rebounded significantly. Although funds may still rotate between different markets, driving BTC to continue its upward trend, the current macro environment is not conducive to sustained new liquidity flowing into the market.

This week's macro outlook: Jensen Huang appears at NVIDIA GTC, the Federal Reserve enters a quiet period, and Meta and Tesla's earnings reports become the market focus

Last week, U.S. tech stocks experienced a significant pullback, with the Nasdaq dropping over 4% for the week. The market is digesting stronger-than-expected inflation data while reassessing the narrative that "the economy cannot be crushed." The Federal Reserve has entered its quiet period ahead of the FOMC meeting on October 28, with officials absent from public statements. This week, more attention will be on the earnings reports of tech giants and economic data, with Meta and Tesla set to announce their results, and the semiconductor and storage sectors also entering their earnings disclosure window.On the geopolitical front, Trump has suspended the full sanctions and tariff enforcement against Russia and set a roughly 60-day assessment window. Disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and escalating risks in the Middle East continue to support oil price premiums. On the agenda, the Nvidia GTC Berlin conference opens on Tuesday and runs until the 22nd; on Wednesday, the U.S. will release API and EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending October 16. In the evening, Beijing time, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote speech, followed by earnings reports from Meta, Tesla, IBM, and Lam Research after the market closes.On Thursday, the U.S. will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending October 17. Before the market opens, Nokia will release its earnings report, and after the market closes, Western Digital and MaxLinear will announce their earnings. On Friday, the U.S. will release the preliminary values for the October S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs, as well as the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and the final value of one-year inflation expectations. On the same day, Japan will also release its September CPI and preliminary values for the October composite, manufacturing, and services PMIs, allowing the market to observe the price situation ahead of the Bank of Japan's decision on October 30.
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