one-year

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report shows that Bitcoin has recently maintained a range of about 5.5% for over 24 trading days, with a cost basis of approximately 840,000 BTC within this range. As profit-taking has noticeably slowed, the seller risk premium has dropped to 7 basis points, one of the lowest levels in the past year, but insufficient buying pressure still limits a breakout.Meanwhile, leverage has accumulated at the upper and lower bounds of the range, with approximately $1.95 billion in short liquidation risk concentrated around $82,000, while there are large-scale long positions in the $75,000 to $76,000 range, which could amplify price volatility following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.Bitfinex further pointed out in the report that rising energy costs, increasing real yields, and weakening consumer confidence have made the macro environment more complex. Whether BTC can break through the current range still depends on the Federal Reserve's policy guidance and the subsequent trends in real yields and energy prices.

According to Decrypt, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Education Director Kamar Samuels announced a one-year ban on the use of generative AI for students from 2-K to eighth grade, starting from the 2026-27 school year, affecting nearly 600,000 students, about two-thirds of the city's enrollment. All generative AI software aimed at students is prohibited, and companion chatbots are banned across all grades, including high school.Mamdani stated that the tech industry wants people to view AI-driven early education as an inevitable and necessary trend, but the city government disagrees. He believes that children need teachers and interpersonal interaction to learn and grow. During the ban, New York City will study the impact of AI and tighten screen time: students in second grade and below will be limited to one-on-one device use, while grades three to five will have a daily limit of 30 minutes, and grades six to eight will have 45 minutes.Meanwhile, about 50,000 high school students (about 5%) will be allowed to use approved tools in up to five classes per school, including text analysis tool Quill, math tutoring platform Edia, Intel AI-Ready Schools, Brisk Teaching, and Playlab. Each high school student will also participate in two 45-minute AI literacy courses each year, covering AI fundamentals, bias, risks, ethics, and career impacts. Teachers may still use AI for lesson preparation and administrative work within safety standards, while assistive technology for students with disabilities, multilingual learners, and career preparation programs in computer science will be exempt.

According to CoinDesk, the latest report from asset management company VanEck shows that Bitcoin has currently triggered 8 out of 12 market capitulation indicators, indicating that the market is approaching the historical bear market bottom area, but the related signals do not mean that the price has bottomed out. These indicators mainly measure the market status of Bitcoin during extreme sell-off phases, including the extent of price retracement from highs, miner profitability, and the proportion of holders at a loss. Over the past three months, all 12 indicators have reached the triggering range.VanEck pointed out that Bitcoin's previous rounds of major bottoms experienced maximum declines of approximately 94%, 85%, 84%, and 78%, during which the market lacked support from spot ETF funds, institutional holdings were relatively small, and there were impacts from major industry events such as Celsius and FTX. In contrast, the market structure has changed this time. From a cyclical perspective, VanEck has compiled 4 complete Bitcoin cycles since 2011 and found that bear markets typically last about 11 months on average from peak to trough; if excluding the special cycle of 2011, the average is about 12.7 months. Currently, Bitcoin has entered the 10th month since its peak in October 2025, and the next potential accumulation window may appear between September and November of this year.VanEck concluded that the current capitulation indicators are more suitable as tools for long-term investors to assess the cycle position rather than short-term bottom-fishing signals. Historical data shows that the advantages of investing based on these indicators are mainly reflected within a one-year cycle, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the coming months.

The prediction market platform Kalshi posted on X that the Google search interest for "buy bitcoin" has dropped to its lowest level in the past year.This data reflects a significant decline in recent retail interest in directly purchasing bitcoin, with related attention cooling significantly from previous highs.

According to unfolded citing ARK data, the one-year actual volatility of Bitcoin was close to 42% at the end of the second quarter. Despite the weak price, it is still near multi-year lows.This indicates that the asset is maturing or that volatility is being suppressed; low volatility typically signals a surge in volatility after a catalyst appears.

According to The Block, U.S. regulators failed to issue the final rules necessary to implement the federal stablecoin framework within the one-year deadline set by the GENIUS Act. This act was signed into law by Trump on July 18, 2025, requiring the OCC, the Federal Reserve, the FDIC, the NCUA, the U.S. Department of the Treasury, and state stablecoin regulatory agencies to complete the supporting rulemaking by no later than July 18, 2026.As of the afternoon of July 18 local time, the main rule proposals released by the OCC, FDIC, NCUA, and the Treasury remain in the proposal stage, with some rules related to the Federal Reserve and anti-money laundering regulation still open for public comment. The report notes that the act does not stipulate that missing the deadline will automatically extend it, nor does it suspend the relevant statutory requirements or delay the overall framework's effectiveness.Among them, the OCC's comprehensive implementation proposal covers reserve assets, capital, liquidity, custody, risk control, and reporting requirements; the FDIC's proposal involves reserves, redemption, custody, and the deposit insurance treatment of stablecoin reserves; the NCUA proposed licensing and operational risk control plans in February and May, respectively, but the comment period for the latter only ended the day before the deadline, making it objectively impossible to complete formal rulemaking before the statutory deadline. The report indicates that this means that some key rules necessary for the operation of the stablecoin framework will not be finalized until at least after the deadline.

According to Jinshi reports, the preliminary value of the one-year inflation rate expectation in the United States for July is 4.2%, lower than the market expectation of 4.5%, and a decrease from the previous value of 4.6%.

According to Jinshi, the 1-year inflation expectation of the New York Fed in June rose to 3.67%, an increase from the previous value of 3.46%.

According to Jinshi, the preliminary value of the one-year inflation rate expectation in the United States for June is 4.6%, lower than the market expectation of 4.9%, and the previous value was 4.8%.

According to Jinshi, the final value of the one-year inflation rate expectation in the United States for May is 4.8%, up from the previous value of 4.5%.

According to Jinshi reports, the initial value of the one-year inflation rate expectation in the United States for May is 4.5%, lower than the market expectation of 4.8%, and the previous value was 4.7%.

According to Jinshi, the 1-year inflation expectation for April from the New York Fed is 3.64%, higher than the market expectation of 3.5% and the previous value of 3.42%.

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil stated that the German government plans to tax Bitcoin and crypto assets in a way that differs from current rules, potentially abolishing the existing policy that allows for tax exemption after holding for more than a year, and aligning its tax treatment more closely with that of stock assets.The related adjustments have raised concerns among some legal scholars, who argue that if stricter tax regulations are implemented solely for Bitcoin, it may involve the equal protection principle in the German Constitution. Previously, Austria had already abolished a similar long-term holding tax exemption policy.

According to Jinshi, the final value of the one-year inflation rate expectation in the United States for April is 4.7%, lower than the market expectation of 4.8% and also lower than the previous value of 4.8%.

According to Jinshi reports, the initial value of the one-year inflation rate expectation in the United States for April is 4.8%, higher than the market expectation of 4.3%, and the previous value was 3.8%.

According to Jinshi, the 1-year inflation expectation for March from the New York Fed is 3.42%, lower than the market expectation of 3.5%, and the previous value was 3%.

According to Jinshi reports, the final value of the one-year inflation rate expectation in the U.S. for March is 3.8%, lower than the market expectation of 3.9%, and the previous value was 3.4%.

According to the RootData calendar page, next week includes several important news items such as project updates, macroeconomic finance, token unlocks, incentive activities, and presale events. The details are as follows:March 23:Polymarket announces major news;AVAIL unlocks 20,913.19 million tokens, worth $849,700, accounting for 5.58% of the circulating supply;SOON unlocks 2,187.64 million tokens, worth $2,866,300, accounting for 4.749% of the circulating supply;ZORA unlocks 16,666.67 million tokens, worth $2,817,600, accounting for 3.728% of the circulating supply.March 24:NIL unlocks 11,865.18 million tokens, worth $5,614,300, accounting for 37.752% of the circulating supply;Japan's February core CPI year-on-year rate.March 26:SAHARA unlocks 7,239.58 million tokens, worth $2,027,100, accounting for 2.488% of the circulating supply;ALT unlocks 24,658.98 million tokens, worth $1,818,900, accounting for 4.338% of the circulating supply;soonBase L3 network ceases operations.March 27:WAL unlocks 38,833.33 million tokens, worth $31,024,700, accounting for 17.323% of the circulating supply;U.S. March one-year inflation rate expectation final value;Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson delivers a speech;2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly gives an opening speech at a conference on macroeconomics and monetary policy.March 28:XPL unlocks 8,888.89 million tokens, worth $857,160, accounting for 4.938% of the circulating supply;SIGN unlocks 9,666.67 million tokens, worth $460,290, accounting for 5.894% of the circulating supply.March 29:HYPE unlocks 991.67 million tokens, worth $399,245, accounting for 4.16% of the circulating supply;In addition, there is a button at the top of the RootData calendar page for generating image shares, allowing users to select important events for sharing.Risk warning: This calendar does not constitute any investment advice.

According to Jinshi, the initial value of the one-year inflation rate expectation in the United States for March is 3.4%, lower than the market expectation of 3.7%, and the same as the previous value of 3.4%.

According to Jinshi, the 1-year inflation expectation for February from the New York Fed is 3%, down from the previous value of 3.09%.