probability

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 99.5%. In addition, the probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points by June is 1.4%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98%, and the probability of cumulatively raising rates by 25 basis points is 0.5%.

Gate, as the first centralized exchange to connect to Polymarket, shows that the probability of a closing market value forecast of over $2 trillion for the SpaceX IPO is about 46%, making it the highest probability option currently.It is reported that Gate has launched the first phase of the Pre-IPOs project, SpaceX (SPCX). The subscription for this phase of SpaceX (SPCX) will be open from April 20, 2026, 18:00 to April 22, 18:00 (UTC+8), supporting participation in both USDT and GUSD. After the subscription is completed, the SPCX asset certificates are expected to be distributed before April 22, 22:00 (UTC+8) and will enter pre-market trading in a 100% unlocked form, with pre-market trading starting at April 24, 18:00 (UTC+8). The total subscription amount is 33,900 SPCX, with a total value of approximately $20.01 million, a unit price of $590, corresponding to an implied valuation of about $1.4 trillion.In terms of participation mechanism, Gate Pre-IPOs adopts "average locked amount per hour" for allocation, emphasizing early participation weight. The minimum participation threshold is 100 USDT, and no handling or custody fees are charged. Gate Pre-IPOs will continue to focus on early participation opportunities for high-quality projects before listing, providing users with a new entry point to access global quality assets.

According to Jinshi News, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 0%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98%, and the probability of a cumulative rate increase of 25 basis points is 2%.

Polymarket's latest data shows that the market bets on the probability of BTC reaching $80,000 before May 1 of this year is 32%, the probability of reaching $85,000 is 8%, and the probability of falling to $65,000 is 22%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 1.6%, the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 96.9%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.5%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 99%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 1.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1%.

According to Jinshi News, the pricing in the money market shows that the probability of the European Central Bank raising interest rates in April is 50%, while the probability last Friday was about 20%.

According to Jinshi News, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut drops to 0%, the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 98.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.8%.

According to CoinDesk, Ron Hammond, the policy head of crypto market maker Wintermute, stated that the legislative process for the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, is still hindered by multiple factors, with a probability of passing this year at about 30%.The bill aims to clarify the division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC in the regulation of digital assets, but the current negotiation progress is uneven, with the timeline repeatedly delayed. The main resistance comes from traditional banking institutions, particularly around the significant disagreements regarding whether stablecoins should offer yields. Compromise proposals have been blocked multiple times, and additionally, the internal divisions within the Democratic Party, as well as issues related to DeFi compliance and anti-money laundering, add uncertainty to the legislation.However, Ron Hammond believes there is still room for the bill to advance, but whether it can be enacted within the year depends on whether key disagreements can be resolved.

According to Jinshi reports, the market expects about a one-third probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this year, and bond traders have slightly reduced their bets on rate cuts. Data shows that due to the rise in gasoline prices caused by the Iran war and the acceleration of inflation in the U.S. in March, U.S. Treasury bonds fell slightly after the report was released, with yields on various maturities rising by two to three basis points. Tom di Galoma, Managing Director of Mischler Financial Group, stated that today's CPI data will not support bond prices, and next month's inflation report will bring more trouble to investors and the Federal Reserve.

According to Jinshi News, the CME "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 1.5%, the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 96.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.7%.

According to Jinshi News, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.1%, the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 96.3%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.5%.

According to Jinshi News, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 1.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 96.8%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.5%.

According to Jinshi News, U.S. federal funds futures generally rose, with the December contract up 14 basis points, indicating a rate cut space of 17 basis points this year.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 0%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 97.9%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 2.1%.

According to Jinshi News, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points is 4.1%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 94.4%, and the probability of cumulatively raising rates by 25 basis points is 1.5%.

Polymarket's probability of "Bitcoin rising to $70,000 in April" has significantly increased to 91%, up 19% in 24 hours; the probability of "Bitcoin rising to $75,000 in April" has risen to 47%, up 16% in 24 hours. The event contract rules are: if the BTC/USDT price on Binance reaches or exceeds the specified price at any 1-minute K-line high during the specified month (from 00:00 to 23:59 Eastern Time on the last day), the market will be immediately determined as "yes"; otherwise, it will be determined as "no." As of now, the total trading volume of this event contract has exceeded $6.435 million.Market data shows that BTC is currently priced at 69,164.6 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 3.06%. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount of BTC across the network reached $113 million, with short liquidations at $104 million and long liquidations at $8.41 million. Polymarket's Prophet channel continues to monitor the prediction market, observing changes before pricing.

According to Jinshi News, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.4%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 1.8%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 96.6%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.5%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 99.5%, both unchanged from before the announcement.The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points by June is 2% (down from 7.8% before the announcement), the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 97.5% (up from 91.7% before the announcement), and the probability of cumulatively raising rates by 25 basis points is 0.5% (unchanged from before the announcement).

According to Jinshi News, the CME "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, while the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is as high as 99.5%. By June, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 7.8%, the probability of keeping the rates unchanged is 91.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 0.5%.