macro

Renowned trader Killa posted about the potential impact of the upcoming FOMC meeting on the cryptocurrency market this week. He stated that many people are very focused on macroeconomics, policies, and economic data to predict the next moves of assets, but Killa believes that "most macro narratives are just distractions." Killa noted that BTC often starts moving before the reasons become clear. By the time the macro environment shifts and the herd realizes it, Bitcoin has usually already completed its move. Correlation is often lagging. The market does not move because most people understand it. Most people understand it because the market has already moved.As a quantitative trader focused on BTC, Killa predicted the peak of this bull market in May 2025 and has over 200,000 followers on platform X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688 and switched to long during the market-wide decline on June 5.

This week, global markets enter a central bank super week. The Federal Reserve's FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections summary at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday, followed by a monetary policy press conference by Chairman Powell; the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also announce their decisions on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate will hold a key procedural vote on the CLARITY Act on Tuesday local time, and the SEC will hold a roundtable discussion on 24-hour trading on the same day.Tuesday: Key procedural vote on the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act (i.e., CLARITY Act); U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending August 29; U.S. September New York Fed Manufacturing Index. Wednesday: U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week ending September 11; U.S. August retail sales month-on-month, U.S. August import price index month-on-month, U.S. September NAHB housing market index; U.S. July business inventories month-on-month, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending September 11.Thursday: Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision (2 AM Beijing time on Thursday) and economic projections summary, Federal Reserve Chairman holds a monetary policy press conference; U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending September 12; Bank of England announces interest rate decision and meeting minutes; SEC holds a roundtable discussion on 24-hour trading. Friday: Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a monetary policy press conference.

Garrett Jin stated in the latest weekly report that Bitcoin failed to break through the key resistance of $82,500 after reaching a high of $82,300 last week, and has returned to the consolidation range, indicating that the current consolidation is not yet over, and the market may not have completed half of the entire adjustment process.In the short term, spot demand has weakened, and supply remains heavy above $82,000. The risk-reward ratio for chasing prices higher or shorting on a pullback within the current range is poor.

Global Macro Investor founder and CEO Raoul Pal published a discussion on how to value L1. He used Ethereum as an example, stating that if it were to shut down, all stablecoins, DeFi, all L2s, and NFTs on it would go to zero.Pal indicated that L1 attracts assets, capital, and velocity due to its intellectual density. Ethereum has the most developers, programmability, and a complete ecosystem. He has repeatedly heard the DCF argument and believes it is meaningless; the valuation target is not cash flow, but everything guaranteed by the chain.He stated that as we enter the era of indices, the entire human economy and the new intelligent economy will be on-chain, and immense value will accumulate in these foundational layers, which is evident.

BTC OG insider whale agent Garrett Jin released a market outlook indicating that the macro environment has clearly tightened this week, with Brent crude oil approaching $95, and the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond breaking through 4.8%. The market's expectation of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to about 70%. Bitcoin has slightly retraced under this pressure but successfully held the key support level of $76,600, then rebounded to the high range of $77,000.On-chain cost basis data shows that a significant amount of new supply has formed in the $75,000 to $80,000 range, providing strong support for the market; the $80,000 to $82,500 range is currently the largest concentration of resistance. A daily close above $82,500 and a successful retest confirmation will be a key signal for supply clearance. In terms of ETF liquidity, there was a net inflow of about $3.5 billion into U.S. spot ETFs in August, but a two-way flow has appeared at the start of September, with a net outflow of about $237 million on Tuesday, and retail activity has also cooled down.Regarding downside risks, if the daily close falls below $76,600, and ETF flows, Coinbase premiums, and 7-day net realized profits all weaken simultaneously, it will be seen as a clear warning signal. This Friday's non-farm payroll data will be the next important macro testing point; if the data is hot, it will strengthen rate hike expectations, and the $76,600 support may come under pressure again.

According to CoinDesk, the "credit pulse" indicator, which measures the speed of new credit in China relative to GDP changes, is flashing red. The Bloomberg China Credit Pulse Index recently reported 20.84 points, the lowest level since 2008. This indicator was proposed by economist Michael Biggs in 2008 and is considered related to the global manufacturing cycle, leading S&P 500 returns by about 12 months.Albert Edwards, a strategist at Société Générale, warned that ignoring China's recent monetary tightening could become "the biggest investment mistake of the decade." Despite the weakening indicators, Bitcoin surged 25% in August and briefly broke through $80,000, mainly driven by inflows from U.S. spot ETFs, short covering, and a catch-up rally of previously lagging assets compared to the stock market.Looking ahead, there are two scenarios: one is that Bitcoin continues to rise, as current crypto trading is primarily driven by U.S. institutional funds, reducing sensitivity to signals from China's credit conditions; the other is that if U.S. stocks decline as Edwards predicts, risk aversion may spill over into Bitcoin. Which scenario will materialize remains to be seen.

According to Cointelegraph, the U.S. Department of Commerce has officially adopted Chainlink to publish core macroeconomic data on-chain, covering key indicators such as actual GDP, PCE price index, and real final sales of private domestic purchasers, marking the first deep integration of traditional government data with blockchain infrastructure.

Greeks.live researcher Adam stated: "I see some people discussing the Strategy to restart buying coins. This short-term stimulus does not affect the long-term trend, and the Strategy is also a big trap. BTC now has no possibility of market manipulation, and no one can predict the trend. It can only be said that after the Strategy has floating profits, there is more room to buy coins. Looking at the long term, the overall ETF is still flowing out, and it is very difficult to stabilize at $80,000, with significant selling pressure.On the macro front, whether it is the Federal Reserve's hawkish remarks or the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, both are challenging the already fragile investors. The short-term volatility is decreasing rapidly, and it is difficult to support a bull market with just one bullish candle. I hope that after a slight correction, it can reach above $85,000; otherwise, arbitrageurs and sellers will create significant selling pressure. The Gex at the end of the month is gathering, and we need to maintain this momentum."

According to Reuters, Yorkville America, the asset management company responsible for managing the Truth Social brand ETF under Trump, is nearing the completion of an acquisition deal aimed at further expanding its product line by acquiring an institutional asset management company. The deal is expected to be completed in September.Yorkville CEO Steve Neamtz stated that this acquisition will be an important step in the company's strategic expansion, pushing its business from the current product line focused on "America First" themed ETFs into a broader digital asset management field. Neamtz added that this marks Yorkville's first entry into the digital assets and cryptocurrency products sector, and the company has already submitted applications to launch approximately 12 additional ETFs in the coming weeks to months, covering various themes such as the digital economy and macro strategies.Meanwhile, Yorkville also announced the launch of the MANGOS Plus Index ETF, which will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NYSE Texas. This is Yorkville's first ETF not managed under the Truth Social brand, primarily betting on popular companies in the AI industry chain. The index tracked by this ETF includes companies such as Meta, Anthropic, NVIDIA, Alphabet, OpenAI, and SpaceX, while also incorporating AI concept stocks like Micron and SanDisk.

According to Jinshi reports, the main theme of this week's market is dominated by changes in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. After Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's speech on Friday, the dollar quickly surged, closing at 99.69, up 0.85% for the week. Against the backdrop of rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, gold faced overall pressure, falling 3.24% for the week; spot silver dropped 3.82% this week.Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all in Beijing time): Monday is pending, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting will be held until September 1; Tuesday at 17:00, Eurozone August CPI data; Eurozone July unemployment rate; Tuesday at 22:00, U.S. August ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. July JOLTs job openings, U.S. July construction spending month-on-month; Tuesday is pending, the 2026 SCO member states heads of state council meeting will be held; Wednesday at 20:15, U.S. August ADP employment change; Wednesday at 22:00, U.S. July factory orders month-on-month; Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions; Thursday at 16:00, Eurozone August Services PMI final value; Thursday at 17:00, Eurozone July PPI month-on-month; Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 29, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will be interviewed; Friday at 03:00, 2026 FOMC voting member Harker will deliver an opening speech at the "Federal Reserve Community" event; Friday at 20:30, U.S. August unemployment rate, U.S. August seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, U.S. August average hourly earnings year-on-year and month-on-month.The highlight of next week's data will be the U.S. August employment report on Friday. This report is the last employment data before the September 16 interest rate meeting and is a key window to assess the policy path after Waller's hawkish stance. Previously, Nvidia's strong performance and an expected revenue growth of about 70% for the next fiscal year have reignited enthusiasm for AI trading. Dell (DELL.O) will release its second-quarter earnings report after the market closes on Tuesday (September 1), with the market expecting an adjusted earnings per share of $4.91, more than doubling from the same period last year. Broadcom (AVGO.O) will release its third-quarter earnings report for fiscal year 2026 after the market closes on Wednesday (September 2).

Fidelity Global Macro Research Director Jurrien Timmer stated that Bitcoin has maintained its power law curve bottom and has adjusted long enough to meet the time factor of the four-year cycle.

Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, stated that the macro investment logic for Bitcoin is continuously strengthening. Even though regulatory issues have temporarily taken a backseat, fiscal concerns continue to drive demand for Bitcoin in the market.Mitchnick pointed out that the fiscal pressures in the current macro environment have become an important factor supporting Bitcoin's appeal, further reinforcing its narrative as a hedging tool. This perspective reflects institutions' ongoing focus on Bitcoin's long-term macro positioning.

Real Vision founder Raoul Pal stated that the charts he closely monitors show that Bitcoin has entered an oversold zone of more than two standard deviations relative to the Nasdaq and is currently rising rapidly. He mentioned that he will continue to observe but believes that in the long term, crypto assets should outperform the Nasdaq.Raoul Pal pointed out that such long-term structural trends are of significant reference value for asset allocation. This view is based on the relative strength performance of Bitcoin against the Nasdaq.

Strive CEO Matt Cole posted on the X platform, stating that for the past decade, he has believed that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is in a structural downtrend, and it may currently be approaching a larger downward phase, which will have a significant impact on Bitcoin.If this judgment holds, the next 5 to 7 years could become one of the most favorable macro environments in Bitcoin's history.

According to QCP, the preliminary consumer confidence index for the University of Michigan in the U.S. dropped to 51 in August, and retail sales in July decreased by 0.6% month-on-month. Coupled with previous weak employment data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's short-term tightening policy have decreased.Federal funds futures indicate that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September is about 30%.

In July, the US CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI increased by 2.5% year-on-year, overall in line with market expectations. As the market continues to assess the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy path, the impact of macro changes on asset allocation and trading strategies is continuously strengthening, further enhancing institutions' focus on liquidity management and trading execution efficiency.Against this backdrop, Gate institutions are continuously improving professional trading infrastructure. According to the transparency report released by the platform in July, Gate CrossEx added one mainstream exchange and 23 trading pairs, launched RPI Orders, reduced the highest fees of multiple exchanges by 50%, and introduced new APIs for market data, funding rates, batch order cancellations, and several WebSocket features; by optimizing concurrent order placement and execution feedback delays, system performance improved by 50%, while the launch of Colo services further reduced trading latency.In addition, SuperLink continues to optimize Fireblocks Gas management and settlement processes, further enhancing institutions' cross-platform asset management and trading collaboration capabilities. In the future, Gate institutions will continue to advance infrastructure upgrades around core capabilities such as trading execution, liquidity, and cross-platform collaboration, providing professional investors with more efficient and stable institutional-level trading services.

Bitfinex's latest report indicates that Bitcoin buying is returning, but the current rebound still mainly relies on improvements in the macroeconomic environment rather than catalysts from the cryptocurrency market itself.

According to Jinshi reports, French President Macron stated that the EU and its partners will continue to increase pressure on Russia, including through sanctions.