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On the first anniversary of the signing of the GENIUS Act, the prospects of Tether USDT in the U.S. market face uncertainty. The act has a three-year compliance grace period, with about two years remaining, after which non-compliant stablecoins will not be able to trade on U.S. crypto platforms.According to Tether's latest disclosure, about 25% of USDT reserves are still allocated to assets such as precious metals, loans, and Bitcoin, which do not meet the requirements of the GENIUS Act. The act requires issuers to fully back their stablecoins with high liquidity assets such as cash and U.S. Treasury bonds. Tether CEO Ardoino promised compliance last year, and the company has launched the USAT stablecoin for the U.S. market through Anchorage Digital this year, but usage remains low.There is a divergence in the legal community regarding the compliance timeline for foreign issuers. Some lawyers believe that foreign issuers must immediately comply with freezing and seizure orders when the act takes effect (expected next January), but they have about two years to meet the remaining requirements. The policy director of Anchorage Digital stated that institutional users will transition to compliant stablecoins before the 2028 deadline. Currently, federal regulators have not finalized the implementation details of the GENIUS Act, and companies have no specific regulations to follow. Tether has not responded to CoinDesk's request for comments on compliance progress.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 85.6%, while the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 14.4%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 38.5%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 53.5%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 7.9%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 85.6%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 14.4%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 41.4%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 51.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 7.5%.

New Hampshire Governor Kelly Ayotte recently signed HB 639, the Blockchain Basic Laws, which increases legal protections for digital asset users, developers, miners, validators, and businesses, and protects the rights to use and self-custody of digital assets. The bill also authorizes the establishment of specialized case files for blockchain-related disputes.New Hampshire's 2025 law allows the state treasurer to allocate up to 5% of certain public funds to precious metals and qualified digital assets, with only Bitcoin currently meeting the market capitalization threshold. Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed SB 21 in June 2025, establishing the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. State legislators allocated $10 million, and Texas subsequently made an initial investment of about $5 million through a spot Bitcoin ETF.Wyoming's 2025 proposal to allow up to 3% of state funds to be allocated to Bitcoin was not approved, but the state continues to advance its specialized banking framework and Frontier Stable Token. FRNT is set to be publicly available in January 2026 and is described as the first state-issued stablecoin in the United States.

According to Jinshi reports, Samuel Tombs of Pantheon pointed out that the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index rose from 49.5 in June to 54.4, exceeding economists' expectations of 50.5, but still below last year's average level. He stated that the decline in inflation expectations provides some comfort to the Federal Reserve, although Chairman Waller's tough rhetoric failed to further lower expectations.At the same time, the "lack of leverage" for workers means that the likelihood of wage growth rising due to the recent overall inflation rebound is very low.

According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts stated that the recent increase in cash reserves and positive capital inflows into Bitcoin futures for Strategy are "encouraging signs" for Bitcoin's prospects, although the capital flow for spot Bitcoin ETFs remains unstable.Strategy's dollar reserves have increased from $2.55 billion to $3 billion, covering approximately 20 months of preferred stock dividends. JPMorgan previously indicated that if Strategy could rebuild sufficient dollar reserves to cover two to three years of dividends, it could alleviate market concerns about the possibility of being forced to sell Bitcoin in the future.Regarding ETFs, the capital flow for spot Bitcoin ETFs has been highly volatile in recent weeks, with inflows last week turning into outflows this week. In contrast, the capital flow for leveraged ETFs related to Strategy has remained stable with continuous positive inflows over the past seven weeks. Analysts believe that this buying pressure mainly comes from retail investors, which may support Strategy's stock price and prevent its common stock from falling below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings. Analysts noted that despite the outflows from the spot ETF this week, Bitcoin futures still recorded positive inflows, which is encouraging.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson stated that he is firmly committed to restoring inflation to the target of 2%, which is consistent with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 88.8%, while the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 11.2%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 48.8%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 46.2%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 5.1%.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Logan stated that he is very optimistic about the productivity improvements brought by artificial intelligence in the long term. However, the current demand for AI investment is strong and real, which may bring inflationary pressure in the short term.

According to Jinshi reports, Fed's Logan stated that the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates to address the high inflation issue, suggesting she may be prepared to oppose the decision to maintain interest rates later this month. Logan pointed out that the June inflation data indicates that price increases are beginning to slow, but it is not enough to convince her that inflation has returned to the Fed's 2% target path. She believes that a moderate increase in interest rates will help better balance the outlook and risks.

Bitget's licensed RWA protocol Reality has released its latest Proof of Reserves (PoR) report. The report shows that Reality's reserve ratio has reached 100%, and its issued tokenized stocks, rToken, are all pegged 1:1 to the underlying US stock assets.The reserve data is updated daily and independently audited by the American auditing firm The Network Firm. The assets are custodied with the FINRA-registered and SIPC-protected US brokerage Alpaca Securities LLC, regulated under New York state law, forming a transparent structure with independent parties for issuance, auditing, and custody.The US stock token rToken issued by Reality has been deeply integrated into the Bitget ecosystem and can be used for core scenarios such as unified account margin and collateral lending. Previous data showed that the assets under management (AUM) of Bitget's stock token rToken surpassed $100 million one month after its launch.

Strategy Inc. currently holds 843,775 BTC, valued at approximately $55 billion based on a price of about $64,500; its total cost for Bitcoin is about $63.69 billion, with an average cost of about $75,500, resulting in an unrealized loss of nearly $9.9 billion. Strategy's Executive Chairman Michael Saylor disclosed that as of July 12, 2026, the company's BTC reserves are 843,775 coins, with a cash reserve of $3 billion, and has increased its cash reserves by $450 million.The company has not purchased Bitcoin since June 22 and recently sold 3,588 BTC to establish a cash position. The $3 billion reserve can cover about 20 months of preferred stock dividends and debt interest obligations. That week, Strategy raised approximately $467 million by selling common stock through a market issuance plan, marking the third consecutive week without increasing Bitcoin holdings. Saylor stated that Strategy will convert Bitcoin into Digital Credit.

According to Jinshi reports, TruStage Chief Economist Steve Rick stated in a report that the U.S. PPI data is below market expectations, which is a positive development for the Federal Reserve. He pointed out that this indicates inflation may be gradually approaching the Federal Reserve's target, further reinforcing market expectations that policymakers can maintain interest rates without considering further rate hikes.Although the fight against inflation is not over, the softening price data means the Federal Reserve has taken a step forward in achieving a better balance between price stability and maintaining a healthy labor market.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book shows that respondents generally expect the U.S. economy to continue expanding in the coming months, but several districts pointed out that there remains a high level of uncertainty regarding fuel cost prospects.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that the Federal Reserve is seeking broader economic growth and narrower inflation levels.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated that the balance sheet should be as small as possible so that it can be expanded during a crisis.

Digital asset management company CoinShares stated that Open USD directly challenges Circle by generating revenue from the distribution of stablecoin reserves to partners, undermining the distribution economic model of USDC.Open USD consists of over 140 companies, including BlackRock, Coinbase, Mastercard, Stripe, and Visa. The stablecoin is expected to launch in the second half of 2026. CoinShares noted that despite the competitive pressure posed by Open USD, the existing liquidity and integration foundation of USDC may be difficult for new entrants to replicate.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale sold $78,560.11 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's July decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point interest rate hike." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 93.28%.

According to Jinshi reports, the Director of the National Economic Council of the White House, Hassett, stated that the data shows there is no reason for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.