risks

According to The Block, the Sui Foundation released an incident analysis report on the recent three interruptions of the mainnet, attributing the three network outages that occurred last Thursday and Friday to two independent vulnerabilities introduced by the v1.72 version upgrade. The first interruption lasted about six and a half hours, while the second and third occurred on Friday morning and afternoon, respectively.The first two interruptions were caused by the "address balance" feature introduced in v1.72, which exposed flaws in the transaction fee deduction method. When a transaction was canceled due to insufficient funds, the network would still spend those funds, resulting in a negative balance that caused the validation node reconciliation process to crash. The foundation acknowledged that the temporary fix pushed urgently on Thursday carried known interruption risks, and the team accepted this risk to quickly restore on-chain services, which led to another network interruption on Friday morning.The third interruption was triggered by another undisclosed random state vulnerability, occurring when the validation nodes restarted to install the fix patch. Sui stated that user funds were never at risk, that both vulnerabilities have been fixed, and that a mechanism to forcibly terminate stalled epochs has been established. The foundation also mentioned that AI agents with access to its production systems significantly accelerated the diagnostic process.

a16z Crypto published an article analyzing the unique value and challenges faced by prediction markets. Prediction markets allow participants to trade on the outcomes of events, aggregating dispersed information through price signals to provide real-time estimates of the probabilities of future events. Unlike traditional polls, prediction markets have the ability to update in real-time and incentivize participants to bet their capital on their information, thereby improving prediction accuracy.The article points out that prediction markets are used not only by companies for product launches and research experiment forecasts but also by the media as a source of "crowd wisdom," covering a wide range of events from geopolitical issues to AI model performance. Its core advantage lies in providing independent probability estimates for specific events, rather than relying on indirect signals from overall asset price movements. However, prediction markets still face challenges related to infrastructure and market design, including event verification, contract settlement, participant information adequacy, and potential manipulation risks.a16z believes that if these issues are resolved, prediction markets are expected to become important tools for decision-making and information aggregation, expanding financial and societal insights into future events.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that the data still makes me more concerned about inflation risks.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson stated that energy shocks pose a downside risk to economic growth while posing an upside risk to inflation.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Cook stated that the Federal Reserve is currently closely monitoring the downside risks in the labor market.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Cook stated that the labor market is "basically stable," but downside risks are increasing.

According to a report by The Information, the prediction market Polymarket is facing increased regulatory and compliance pressure, and the platform is pushing traders to undergo identity verification (KYC) to reduce potential legal and compliance risks.The report states that although Polymarket's platform rules do not allow such activities in certain regions, some users are still participating in market trading through automated trading bots and other means, creating gray usage paths in areas like Russia. Some developers are even using tools like Telegram to organize trading traffic and expand the user base. As the platform grows and regulatory scrutiny increases, Polymarket is being forced to seek a balance between decentralized prediction markets and compliance requirements to address potential sanctions and legal risks.

According to Jinshi reports, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel stated that the latest data indicates an upward risk for inflation, while economic growth faces a downward risk.

The Wall Street Journal published an article pointing out that although the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act are promoting the compliance of stablecoins, the essence of stablecoins still belongs to "private currency," which may pose structural risks to the financial system.The article notes that stablecoins aim to combine the stability of the US dollar with the efficiency of blockchain payments, but because they operate on fragmented, privatized infrastructure, they do not possess the unity of the traditional US dollar system. Although USDT and USDC are pegged to the dollar, their prices may still deviate from 1 dollar.In addition, there is an incentive for stablecoin issuers to enhance returns by allocating high-risk, low-liquidity assets. If the value of these related assets declines, it could trigger de-pegging and concentrated redemption risks. The article cites Chainalysis data stating that stablecoins account for 84% of illegal activities in cryptocurrency, mainly involving sanctions evasion and money laundering, while real economic payment scenarios account for less than 1%.The Wall Street Journal believes that stablecoins are replaying the path of private currency experiments from the "Free Banking Era" in 19th century America, and in the future, they may need to accept stricter regulation like banks and integrate more deeply into the central bank system.

According to a report by Reuters, three sources revealed that the European Central Bank warned EU finance ministers on Friday that proposals to issue more euro stablecoins could reduce bank lending and make interest rate control more difficult. The Brussels-based economic think tank Bruegel prepared a report for the EU's top financial policymakers, calling for a relaxation of liquidity requirements for cryptocurrency issuers and possibly allowing them to access funding support from the European Central Bank. The aim is to develop the stablecoin market in Europe, which is currently dominated by dollar tokens.However, sources said that other central bank officials, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, immediately opposed this. They are concerned that such measures would make bank deposits more unstable, weaken this sector that is crucial to the economy, and reduce the central bank's ability to regulate interest rates.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) issued a circular outlining the monitoring measures that should be implemented when opening accounts and maintaining client relationships. This circular was issued after the SFC reviewed the account opening practices of 12 securities brokerage firms.The review identified several significant deficiencies, including insufficient due diligence on account opening documents, acceptance of suspicious or forged documents during the account opening process, and weaknesses in managing cross-border agency relationships with overseas intermediaries. The SFC expressed deep concern about the potential misuse of client accounts for suspicious or illegal transactions, which could exacerbate the risks of money laundering and terrorist financing.The SFC requires all licensed corporations to conduct internal checks as soon as practicable to detect whether any suspicious or forged documents have been accepted for account opening. The SFC also outlined additional measures for licensed corporations when opening and managing accounts for mainland investors.These additional measures include closing investment accounts opened with suspicious or forged documents, closing zero-balance dormant investment accounts, and requiring a written declaration from investors when opening new investment accounts, stipulating that settlements and fund withdrawals can only be conducted through bank accounts held in the investor's own name at qualified banks.

According to Jinshi reports, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes show that staff forecasts for economic activity are slightly stronger than the predictions made at the March meeting, expecting that the real GDP growth rate will be slightly above the potential growth rate in the coming years. The unemployment rate is expected to be close to long-term levels in the next two years, slightly below this level around 2028. Staff inflation forecasts for this year are higher than those made at the March meeting, mainly due to the latest data and higher energy prices. Inflation is expected to approach 2% by the end of next year. Overall, the risks to the inflation forecast are tilted to the upside, and staff believe that the possibility of inflation being more persistent than expected is worth noting.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that if the Iran conflict continues, it will further increase the risks of inflation and unemployment.

On-chain detective ZachXBT posted a warning stating that "choosing to gamble on Spartans is itself an IQ test," and questioned the long-term harvesting behavior of the operators behind Spartans. ZachXBT pointed out that Gurhan Kiziloz, a figure related to Spartans, previously operated BlockDAG Network, which has not launched its mainnet or mining products for years, yet still promoted a presale with "300 times returns" and has raised at least $350 million from inexperienced retail investors.He further stated that BlockDAG has recently shifted to casino operations and suspects that the related casino platform may be used to "legitimize BlockDAG funding sources," including circulating funds by paying high fees to employees and KOLs. Previously, several community members and content creators have also publicly questioned Spartans' marketing model and operational transparency, warning users of potential "rug pull" risks.

According to CoinDesk, Citibank stated in its latest report that the progress of quantum computing technology is faster than the market expected, accelerating the potential security risks faced by cryptocurrencies and internet infrastructure, with Bitcoin being considered one of the assets with the "greatest risk exposure." The report points out that the ECDSA elliptic curve cryptography system currently used by Bitcoin could theoretically be cracked by sufficiently powerful quantum computers. In the future, attackers may be able to derive private keys from publicly disclosed public keys, allowing them to forge transactions and steal assets.Citibank analyst Alex Saunders stated that due to its relatively conservative governance mechanism and slow protocol upgrade speed, Bitcoin is more difficult to quickly complete quantum-resistant upgrades compared to PoS networks like Ethereum. The report estimates that there are currently about 6.5 million to 6.9 million BTC at potential quantum risk due to exposed public keys, accounting for about one-third of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $450 billion at current prices. This includes some early P2PK addresses and wallets believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto.Citibank also warns of the "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" risk, where attackers currently collect encrypted data and wait until future quantum computing power matures to decrypt it all at once.However, Citibank remains optimistic about the long-term adaptability of the cryptocurrency industry, believing that blockchain can still migrate through post-quantum cryptography and protocol reconstruction in the future. The report mentions that the BIP-360 and BIP-361 upgrade proposals currently being discussed by the Bitcoin community are worth paying attention to.

The slow fog余弦 social media stated that the high-risk iOS attack framework DarkSword has been publicly leaked on channels such as GitHub and is being used for large-scale espionage attacks targeting cryptocurrency wallet holders.This attack program targets devices running iOS versions 18.4 to 18.7, utilizing vulnerabilities in the Safari browser through malicious web pages to achieve remote code execution, thereby stealing users' sensitive data. Attackers launch attacks using bait web pages that impersonate pornographic live streams, Tron energy stations, refund processes, and more.iPhone users running older versions of iOS, once they access such web pages using the Safari browser (even if they do not close the page), may have sensitive information such as plaintext private keys and mnemonic phrases stolen by malicious JavaScript code when unlocking the wallet app, which is then transmitted in real-time through channels like Telegram bots.

The cryptocurrency research institution Delphi Digital released the latest report "How Far Can Saylor Stretch It," which systematically analyzes the Bitcoin (BTC) funding expansion mechanism of Strategy, pointing out that its financing structure is transitioning from "low-cost accumulation" to the "diminishing marginal efficiency" stage. The report shows that in the current asset accumulation system centered around Bitcoin, STRC has become the core financing tool for Strategy's continuous purchase of BTC. Initially, it relied on a significant premium in MSTR's stock price (mNAV far exceeding BTC's net value) to achieve a positive cycle of "issuance leads to accumulation," but as the valuation has fallen back to about 1.24 times the EV-based mNAV, the BTC per share enhancement effect from common stock issuance is nearing breakeven.At the same time, while convertible bond tools have played an important role historically, they have accumulated about $8.2 billion in principal and will face concentrated repayment pressure after September 2027, putting long-term sustainability of the financing structure under pressure. STRC provides a continuous financing source for Strategy by offering approximately 11.5% annualized monthly dividends to income-oriented investors, to maintain the pace of BTC purchases. However, this mechanism also introduces ongoing cash flow obligations, meaning that each round of financing increases BTC assets while simultaneously accumulating future dividend burdens.The report emphasizes key risk scenarios: if BTC prices remain stagnant and MSTR's premium fails to recover, then the "STRC financing purchase gain" may be gradually offset by "common stock dilution and dividend obligations." Although the company's approximately $2.25 billion cash reserves can cover about $1 billion in redemption pressure in 2027, larger-scale debt and dividend structures in 2028 still need to be addressed. Additionally, the current authorized issuance limit of about $28.3 billion for STRC becomes a critical constraint point. Once the limit is reached, the ability to purchase new BTC may slow down, but existing dividend obligations will continue to exist, thus altering the overall BTC per share dynamic growth path.

According to Jinshi reports, ECB Governing Council member Nagel stated on Friday that due to the Iran war, the European Central Bank is "highly vigilant" about rising inflation risks and will take action as needed to prevent rising energy costs from spreading more broadly to prices. Nagel emphasized that although the medium-term impact of the conflict on inflation is "still difficult to assess," policymakers are prepared to respond to ensure that energy-driven price increases do not spread and become entrenched.

According to market news, Coinbase, Kraken, and Gemini submitted revisions to the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee, requesting the removal of the provision in the digital asset bill that requires trading platforms to list only tokens that are "not readily susceptible to manipulation."The three companies believe that this provision will increase the difficulty of listing small-cap, low-liquidity tokens and could be used by future CFTC chairs as a tool for tightening regulation. The current draft aims to grant the CFTC broader powers over the spot markets for "digital commodities" such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The Senate Agriculture Committee has already passed the relevant sections along party lines, and further significant modifications will be made to gain support from the Democrats.