risks

JPMorgan has lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 7500 points to 7200 points, citing that the conflict in Iran has caused a surge in oil prices, which has intensified the risk of economic recession. The bank warned that the market may be underestimating the impact of rising energy costs on the economy.While investors are focused on inflation, JPMorgan believes that the greater threat is to consumer demand, which could weaken economic growth. Historically, oil prices rising by more than 30% often lead to a contraction in demand and are frequently a precursor to economic recessions. In the short term, the S&P 500 index may decline further, especially after breaking below the 200-day moving average—this is a bearish signal. If the sell-off continues, the index may find support around 6000-6200 points.Although JPMorgan still expects an economic recovery later this year supported by investments and stimulus measures, the extent of the recovery may be more limited due to ongoing geopolitical risks.

Members of the UK's Treasury Select Committee and the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Crypto and Digital Assets (APPG) are calling for an immediate ban on donations to political parties in the form of cryptocurrency.The proposal stems from recent controversies regarding "dark money" flowing into the political system, with lawmakers believing that the anonymity of crypto assets could be used to evade existing political funding transparency requirements. The report points out that blockchain addresses are difficult to trace back to actual beneficiaries or could be used to obscure the source of funds, posing risks of foreign interference and money laundering. Some investigations have also found that certain crypto donations in the winter of 2025 can be traced back to overseas IP addresses. According to the proposal, political parties must liquidate existing crypto assets and refuse future related donations to ensure political funding returns to the traditional financial system. In response, crypto industry organizations believe that a blanket ban may be an overreaction and suggest enhancing transparency through measures such as strengthening KYC.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that he does not wish to adopt overly tight policies due to the downside risks in the labor market.

According to Jin Shi reports, JPMorgan analyst Bob Michele expressed his shock at the Federal Reserve's decision, believing that the decision overlooks the risks in the Middle East, and that the expectations of economic acceleration and stable employment may be a misjudgment. Michele pointed out that this will have a substantial impact on inflation as well as the economy and labor market.

According to Jinshi reports, the chart in the Federal Reserve's economic outlook shows that most FOMC participants believe that PCE inflation and core PCE inflation face high uncertainty, with risks tilted to the upside.

According to Jin Shi reports, the chart in the Federal Reserve's economic outlook shows that most FOMC participants believe that the uncertainty facing actual GDP is high, with a downward risk bias.

According to Theblock, research firm K33 stated that Strategy increasingly relies on selling its STRC perpetual preferred shares to raise funds for accumulating Bitcoin, which is introducing structural risks related to market sentiment and pricing dynamics.It is reported that of the $1.57 billion in Bitcoin acquired by Strategy on Monday, approximately $1.18 billion came from the market sale of STRC, while the sale of Class A common stock amounted to $396 million.K33 indicated that this model requires the price of STRC to be maintained near the target price, and that the trading price of Strategy's equity is above its net asset value. These conditions are largely driven by market sentiment and may deteriorate simultaneously during market weakness.

Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute stated on social media that the situation in the Middle East has entered its third week of escalation, with Brent crude oil rising 26% over the week. The market has adjusted its expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 to just one. Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market has outperformed all major asset classes except for crude oil, with BTC rising over the week, while stocks, bonds, and gold all experienced declines.In terms of digital assets, BTC rebounded about 10% from Monday's low, marking seven consecutive days of gains, and has regained the $71,000 level; ETH followed suit and maintained above $2,000. The Coinbase BTC premium indicator has reset, as the structural pressure of discount that persisted for months has dissipated. The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded its first consecutive five-day net inflow in 2026, totaling $767 million, with $251 million flowing in on Monday alone, led by IBIT; the Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of about $160 million over four consecutive days.Strategy has increased its holdings by 1,360 BTC; Bitmine announced the purchase of ETH for $128 million, with the Ethereum Foundation selling 5,000 ETH directly to it through over-the-counter trading. The implied volatility index for BTC (DVOL) has compressed from 61 to 51, and the correlation between BTC and stocks has also significantly weakened.On the macro front, core PCE annualized at 3.1%, non-farm payrolls showed a decrease of 92,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, with stagflation becoming the baseline scenario. This week, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will announce their interest rate decisions on the same day, marking the most concentrated macro event in recent months.

According to GMGN data, SIREN has risen above $0.77, currently reported at $0.766, with an intraday increase of over 20%. The market is highly volatile, and users are advised to pay attention to risks.

Binance founder CZ posted on the X platform that the Binance Web3 wallet now supports filtering out junk transactions to reduce the risk of address poisoning. Due to the recent increase in Ethereum address poisoning attacks, he previously called for block explorers to directly filter such junk transactions instead of just displaying them to users, and suggested using AI technology for junk transaction identification and filtering.

According to a report by Jinshi, the latest NBC poll shows that Trump's support among registered voters has decreased by 3 percentage points from 47% in March 2025 to 44%, with disapproval rising to 54%. The average of Decision Desk HQ polls also shows similar results: 43.1% approval and 54.4% disapproval.Investinglive analyst Adam Button stated that the key for the market lies in the situation of the midterm elections. Trump himself has pointed out this risk, noting that historical patterns show that the party in the White House typically faces setbacks in midterm elections. If the Republican Party loses seats in Congress, it will reshape the legislative landscape regarding tax policy, tariffs, and deregulation, while current stock valuations have to some extent already priced in expectations for these policies.The big question ahead is whether Trump will begin to face internal pressure to quickly end the war. Republicans have certainly acknowledged that they will lose the House of Representatives, and as the Middle Eastern war diminishes some of their voter base, the control of the Senate becomes increasingly uncertain.

Driven by geopolitical risks and shipping disruptions, the commodities sector has shown a strong upward trend, with natural gas prices recently on the rise. The Gate contract commodity section has launched NG (natural gas) for the first time, reaching a peak of $3.312 within 24 hours, currently reported at $3.245.In addition, the attention and participation in crude oil funding remain high. According to data from the Gate platform, XTI (WTI crude oil) reached a peak of $110.53 within 24 hours, currently reported at $109.36; XBR (Brent crude oil) peaked at $113.84 within 24 hours, currently reported at $109.86, with significant market volatility. According to CoinGlass data, the trading volume for Gate XTI (WTI crude oil) contracts reached $18.03 million within 24 hours, while XBR (Brent crude oil) contracts reached $12.09 million, both ranking first in the industry.Currently, the Gate contract section has fully covered traditional financial assets including stocks (a total of 57), metals (a total of 12), indices (a total of 15), forex (a total of 3), and commodities (a total of 3). The trading targets include mainstream varieties such as gold, silver, crude oil, natural gas, euro, pound, Dow Jones Industrial Index, and Hang Seng Index, supporting 7×24 hours continuous trading, with a maximum leverage of 100 times, continuously creating an efficient multi-asset one-stop trading platform for global users.

The Chief Information Security Officer of Slow Fog Technology, 23pds, issued a reminder stating that ClawHub developers should be aware of phishing and credential leakage risks. Currently, ClawHub relies on developers' GitHub one-click login. Previously, the Sha1-Hulud worm stole a large number of developers' GitHub credentials, and attackers may take the opportunity to attack Skills.The attack path is: credential theft → attacker gains GitHub permissions → logs into ClawHub as a developer → publishes malicious Skills to implant backdoors → users download and install, executing malicious code leading to system intrusion.

According to Jinshi News, analysts at Monex Europe stated in a report that the dollar may continue to find support in the short term unless there are credible signs of de-escalation in the Iran conflict. This conflict has driven safe-haven funds into the dollar, and the war has led to rising oil prices, reinforcing the market's view that the Federal Reserve will maintain a tight policy for a longer period. However, in the long term, the market may be underestimating the potential extent of policy easing in the U.S. after concerns about energy prices subside, which means the dollar faces downside risks.

According to Caixin, recently, due to a high-risk security vulnerability in the open-source AI entity OpenClaw ("Lobster"), several universities, including Anhui Normal University, Jiangsu Normal University, and Zhuhai College of Science and Technology, have issued urgent notices prohibiting the installation and operation of this software on campus office equipment and network environments. Violators will be dealt with seriously.

According to the Securities Times, recently, the download and usage of the OpenClaw ("Little Lobster") application have been booming. In this regard, People's Finance learned from the Hong Kong Digital Policy Office, which is responsible for AI policy, that the office has been continuously monitoring the latest trends in artificial intelligence and has recently noted potential risks associated with OpenClaw, including excessive permissions, data leakage, and system security.It is recommended that relevant organizations and individual users take adequate security measures when deploying and using OpenClaw, specifically including: strengthening network controls, implementing strict isolation of the operating environment to reduce the risk of excessive permissions; enhancing credential management to avoid storing keys in plaintext in environment variables; strictly managing plugin sources to ensure the trustworthiness and security of plugins; continuously monitoring official patches and security updates, and promptly conducting version updates and installing security patches.It is reported that the Hong Kong government places great importance on the governance and risk prevention of artificial intelligence applications, having developed documents such as the "Ethical Framework for Artificial Intelligence" and "Guidelines for Generative Artificial Intelligence Technology and Applications in Hong Kong." Additionally, the government has established a comprehensive "Government Information Technology Security Policy and Guidelines" for all departments to follow and use. Each department must conduct a risk assessment before installing various types of software.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China has released a document titled "Six Dos and Don'ts for Preventing Security Risks of OpenClaw (Lobster) Open Source Intelligent Agents," which outlines the typical application scenario security risks of OpenClaw, including: the smart office scenario mainly has prominent risks of supply chain attacks and intrusions into the corporate intranet; the development and operation scenario mainly has prominent risks of sensitive information leakage of system devices and being hijacked; the personal assistant scenario mainly has prominent risks of personal information theft and sensitive information leakage; the financial transaction scenario mainly has prominent risks of triggering erroneous transactions or even account takeover.In addition, it points out six usage recommendations: use the official latest version; strictly control the internet exposure; adhere to the principle of least privilege; use the skill market with caution; guard against social engineering attacks and browser hijacking; establish a long-term protection mechanism.

Tastylive's global macro director Ilya Spivak stated that the next catalyst for the market is likely to come from the inflation data itself. Economists expect the overall CPI year-on-year for the U.S. in February to record 2.4%, while the core CPI year-on-year is expected to record 2.5%. However, beneath the surface of the data, a key risk is subtly visible.One important driver of the January CPI data was the decline in the contribution of energy prices to overall inflation. Given that oil prices have already started to rise in early 2026, it seems extremely difficult to replicate this situation. Regardless of what this means for the energy component in the February CPI data, traders will be keenly watching whether core price growth (especially in the services sector) continues to decline slightly.This could spark hopes for the normalization of inflation after the cessation of hostilities in the Middle East, thereby helping to soothe the market's anxious sentiment. If not, fragile financial markets may see a resurgence of "safe-haven" volatility, as investors will once again face the possibility of interest rates remaining elevated for a longer period. This would signal a troubling situation for stocks, bonds, and currencies other than the dollar.

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains turbulent, and rising oil prices have increased potential inflation risks while weakening expectations for interest rate cuts. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the current probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March is only 2.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 97.4%.The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current rate until April is 85.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 14.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.3%.The dates for the next two FOMC meetings are March 18 and April 29.

Slow Fog CISO 23pds (Shan Ge) posted on the X platform, stating that Taobao and Xianyu have U-disk versions of OpenClaw, claiming that users can plug and play after purchasing and configuring the model. However, OpenClaw has excessive permissions, and ordinary users find it difficult to identify malicious Skills, which can easily lead to asset loss.