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According to Jinshi reports, European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that the risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside.

According to Hong Kong Radio, the Hong Kong government has decided to stop promoting basketball gambling projects. The Secretary for Home Affairs and Youth Affairs, Mak Mei-juan, stated in an interview with this station that the information collected by the authorities shows that the "prediction market" has developed rapidly in recent years, with monthly trading volume increasing from less than $100 million two years ago to over $13 billion last year, of which nearly 40% of the transactions are related to sports. The authorities are concerned that if new gambling projects are promoted at this time, it will lead to greater public concern and even participation in illegal gambling in the "prediction market." Therefore, it is believed that research should be conducted first before deciding on the next steps, and the promotion of new gambling projects should be halted for now.Mak Mei-juan stated that the existing regulated gambling projects have established a more mature monitoring and management system, which can help control risks. However, due to the uncertainty of the "prediction market," as a responsible government, there is a need to conduct research to understand the impact of the "prediction market" and its prevalence in Hong Kong. She also mentioned that the government has always maintained close contact with the Hong Kong Jockey Club, as the club has a rigorous monitoring system to oversee illegal gambling situations, and there are experts specifically targeting the fight against illegal gambling. The government will cooperate with the Jockey Club to obtain professional advice, allowing the authorities to implement measures specifically aimed at illegal gambling.Mak Mei-juan reiterated that the government's consistent policy is not to encourage gambling, and betting on sports projects in the "prediction market" is considered illegal gambling. The authorities will strengthen public education to help citizens understand the harms of gambling and refrain from participating in illegal gambling.

According to Cryptoquant, the Bitcoin Comprehensive Market Index (BCMI), composed of MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, and the Fear and Greed Index, is currently testing a historically key pivot zone. Analyst Woominkyu (@Woo_Minkyu) stated that the BCMI index has fallen to the range of 0.2 to 0.3. While it does not guarantee an immediate "V-shaped" reversal, this area historically corresponds to deeply undervalued levels for BTC.Through data backtracking, BCMI confirms that the current pullback has reset realized value and market sentiment to levels not seen since the beginning of 2023; however, the 90-day moving average (white line) is still trending downward. From a conservative perspective, it is necessary to wait for this slope to flatten, which will signal the exhaustion of selling pressure. Additionally, analyst Woominkyu believes the market is entering a "value accumulation zone," where the downside potential is shrinking compared to the long-term upside potential. However, it is still necessary to wait for price stabilization to confirm the bottom signal of the index.

According to Jinshi reports, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes show that all members believe the risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside.

Bitcoin rose to about $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in the last 24 hours and 5.4% for the week. However, the derivatives market is sending mixed signals. Institutional firm QCP Capital pointed out that this round of increase is mainly driven by spot trading, rather than a broad recovery in risk appetite.Currently, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains negative, and open interest has decreased, indicating that short sellers are still increasing hedges rather than passively closing positions. The options market is also leaning towards caution: short-term implied volatility is sluggish, with one-month volatility lower than three-month volatility, and the risk reversal indicator shows that the market's demand for downside protection is higher than for upside bets, indicating that traders are more inclined to pay for potential declines rather than chase upward movements. QCP believes this is more of a "bounce" rather than a trend reversal.On a macro level, long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices have not confirmed a recovery in risk appetite, with gold still near high levels, indicating that safe-haven demand remains. Institutions point out that the current market is more driven by expectations of a ceasefire and "emotional repair," rather than a core risk being alleviated. Additionally, Ethereum has shown relatively strong performance, with the ETH/BTC ratio rising to about 0.0315, combined with on-chain transaction volumes and stablecoin supply reaching all-time highs, indicating signs of capital rotating towards high β assets. However, the market still needs to observe the evolution of subsequent risk events to confirm the sustainability of this round of increase.

According to Jinshi reports, market news suggests that the United States and Iran are reportedly considering extending the ceasefire for two weeks.

According to Theblock citing The Information, Polymarket has launched an audit targeting application startups that promise to help users track suspected insider trading activities.The report states that these copy trading applications provide customers with a list of traders on the Polymarket platform who have a good track record of profitability, or highlight some unusually large or oddly timed bets that may be based on confidential information. Customers can use bots to replicate these trades or receive notifications of seemingly good trades. These applications charge service fees.It is reported that Polymarket and its main competitor Kalshi have both been scrutinized for insider trading issues. Last month, Polymarket introduced clearer rules regarding insider trading and its enforcement.

According to Jinshi reports, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the Federal Reserve can observe for a period before cutting interest rates, emphasizing that they indeed need to lower rates.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, two wallets associated with BTC OG insider whales withdrew 59,000,000 Binance coins from Binance a month ago at a price of $0.074 each, worth approximately $4.38 million at that time. Currently, the total value of these 59,000,000 Binance coins has risen to $19.5 million, with unrealized gains exceeding $15 million.

On Monday local time, the San Francisco District Attorney's Office stated that Daniel Moreno-Gama, the suspect who attacked OpenAI founder Sam Altman last week, has been charged with attempted murder. The Department of Justice announced that the suspect also faces federal charges, including attempting to use explosives to damage property and illegal possession of an unregistered firearm.According to the indictment submitted to the San Francisco federal court on Monday, Daniel Moreno-Gama was arrested after the attack on Friday, and officers from the San Francisco Police Department found a document on him detailing his intentions. In the document, Daniel Moreno-Gama expressed his intent to kill Altman and warned that humanity would be "on the verge of extinction" due to artificial intelligence.

Tom Duff Gordon, Vice President of International Policy at Coinbase, has left the company to join AI giant OpenAI as the head of policy for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.Tom Duff Gordon worked at Coinbase for nearly 4 years and previously served as a banker at Credit Suisse for 8.5 years. A Coinbase spokesperson confirmed this change via email.

According to DL News, STS Digital's CEO Maxime Seiler stated that Bitcoin traders are increasingly positioning themselves for a price decline.In a report, he noted that the demand for put options is significantly higher than that for call options, with investors paying a premium for downside protection while selling off bullish bets, reflecting a sense of panic in the market. This bearish signal comes as Bitcoin's trading price hovers slightly above $70,000.Previously, Bitcoin fell nearly 4% over the weekend due to President Trump's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, the U.S. Central Command announced that the Navy would intercept all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports starting at 10 AM Eastern Time, causing oil prices to rebound above $100 per barrel.High oil prices mean rising inflationary pressures, which will be a major focus for global central bank governors at their meeting in late April. The prices of risk assets like Bitcoin are highly dependent on the policies of these institutions, as they determine the money supply in the financial system. The unresolved Middle East conflict will remain a focal point for the market this week.

Polkadot responded to the Hyperbridge vulnerability incident, stating that the vulnerability only affects DOT assets bridged to the Ethereum network via Hyperbridge and does not involve native DOT within the Polkadot ecosystem or assets from other bridging paths. The official statement indicated that the Polkadot mainnet and its parachains are operating normally, and related assets remain secure.Currently, Hyperbridge has suspended operations, and the incident is under further investigation. Previous reports indicated that the Polkadot bridge vulnerability was exploited, resulting in the issuance of 1 billion DOT on the Ethereum network, which has been sold off, with the attacker profiting $237,000.

Agent Garrett Jin from "1011 Insider Whale" pointed out in an analysis that the U.S. announcement to implement a maritime blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is one of the "most tactically wise" moves in the current conflict, but it is unlikely to achieve the goal of ending the war. This strategy has two short-term advantages: first, it directly weakens Iran's crude oil export revenue by about 1.7 million barrels per day; second, compared to occupying key facilities (such as Khark Island), the cost of a maritime blockade is lower and the risks are more controllable.However, the effectiveness of this strategy faces multiple challenges. For example, the current blockade mainly targets Iranian ports rather than completely closing the strait, and third-party transshipment routes still exist. Additionally, it undermines the U.S.'s long-term international image of maintaining "freedom of navigation," which could have far-reaching effects on global maritime order.Garrett Jin concluded that while the blockade measures may reshape the initiative in the short term, they are unlikely to force Iran to make concessions and may instead compress diplomatic space and prolong the conflict cycle. The market has accounted for the impact of the blockade itself, but has not fully priced in the potential paths for escalation that may follow.

As Robinhood accelerates its layout in the prediction market, it has proactively excluded certain contract products due to concerns that they may foster market manipulation and insider trading risks. Robinhood UK President Jordan Sinclair stated that the company is highly attentive to market abuse issues and will not offer all prediction markets or event contracts to users, but will selectively launch products that are more suitable for customers.Recently, several "precise betting" incidents have raised regulatory concerns. For example, there were unusually large bets placed on Polymarket before U.S. actions against Iran; Israeli regulators have also sued two individuals who used confidential information to place bets. Additionally, "mention markets" (such as words that will appear in a speech being bet on) have been explicitly excluded from Robinhood's product range due to their susceptibility to manipulation.Currently, Robinhood primarily provides compliant prediction market services through partnerships with Kalshi and ForecastEx, prioritizing regulated platforms to reduce information abuse and cross-border compliance risks. In contrast, the less regulated Polymarket allows users to trade through cryptocurrency wallets with relatively loose identity verification.Robinhood previously anticipated that prediction markets would become an important growth engine, with CEO Vlad Tenev stating that this business could become one of the fastest-growing segments by 2025, potentially driving the formation of a trillion-dollar annual trading scale in the future.

According to Caixin, U.S. Vice President Vance stated at a press conference that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have not reached an agreement, and the U.S. negotiating delegation he leads will return home. Vance mentioned that the U.S. side has shown "considerable flexibility and sincerity" during the negotiations and has clearly outlined "acceptable and unacceptable conditions," but the Iranian side "chose not to accept." Vance also revealed that during approximately 21 hours of negotiations, the U.S. delegation maintained communication with President Trump and the national security team, and has presented Iran with a "final proposal," awaiting a response from the other side.

According to a report from Jinshi citing CCTV News, on the 11th local time, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stated on social media that the high-level Iranian delegation heading to Pakistan will fully uphold Iran's national interests and will negotiate with a courageous attitude.He emphasized that regardless of the negotiation results, the Iranian government's work in serving the people will never stop, and the Iranian government will always stand with the people.