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Standard Chartered Bank: Maintains Bitcoin target price of $100,000, Strategy of selling coins is not a worsening risk

According to The Block, Standard Chartered stated that it maintains its price prediction of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026. The recent market decline triggered by movements related to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is not due to a deterioration of the company's balance sheet, but rather a failure of the strategic adjustments to be fully understood by the market.Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, pointed out in a report that Strategy's recent behavior is disrupting short-term market expectations for Bitcoin. The market had previously accepted the narrative of the company "never selling Bitcoin," but now Strategy seems to be shifting towards a more complex capital operation model. Whether this change can be clearly communicated will determine when market pressure eases.Currently, Strategy holds 843,775 Bitcoins, accounting for over 4% of the total supply of 21 million Bitcoins. Between 2020 and mid-2025, Strategy's mNAV (market value/Bitcoin asset value) has remained above 1, allowing the company to finance Bitcoin purchases through stock issuance and achieve shareholder value growth.The commitment to "never sell Bitcoin" is the core of this model gaining market recognition. However, as the current mNAV approaches 1, the leverage effect of this financing model is weakening. Kendrick believes that Strategy is transitioning from a "Bitcoin accumulation tool" to a "Bitcoin credit support tool," meaning it holds Bitcoin as the credit basis for its perpetual preferred stock STRC.STRC currently has a scale of about $10 billion, making it the largest financial instrument launched by Strategy, with an annualized dividend yield of 12%, paid in cash every half month, and its price maintained around the $100 par value through an interest rate adjustment mechanism. Standard Chartered stated that STRC is currently trading at about $90, while Strategy has a dollar reserve of about $2.55 billion for paying dividends, which can cover approximately 17.4 months of dividend expenses.Kendrick stated that the policy adjustment allowing the sale of Bitcoin does not necessarily mean the company will continue to sell. He believes that as long as the market believes the new capital structure arrangement can stabilize the STRC price, Strategy may not actually need to sell Bitcoin. He likened this mechanism to a central bank's commitment to "take action no matter what": restoring market confidence alone may mean that actual intervention might not occur at all.

Strategy launches a digital credit capital framework, establishes a BTC monetization plan, and two $1 billion repurchase plans

According to the 8-K document submitted to the SEC by Strategy, the company announced the launch of a digital credit capital framework, which includes five core components: dollar reserve policy, adjustment of STRC dividend policy, preferred stock repurchase plan, common stock repurchase plan, and BTC monetization plan.Under the dollar reserve policy, the reserve can only be used to pay preferred stock dividends and debt interest, and management must maintain a reserve sufficient to cover expected dividends and interest expenses for at least the next 12 months. As of June 28, the dollar reserve balance was $2.55 billion.Regarding the STRC dividend, the company will dynamically assess the dividend rate on a monthly basis, considering factors such as trading price, market yield, credit spread, and Bitcoin price volatility, and will not increase the dividend solely because the STRC trading price is below par value. The company also announced an increase in the annualized dividend rate for STRC to 12% from the previous level, effective July 1.In terms of the repurchase plan, the company has established two repurchase authorizations of $1 billion each, to repurchase preferred stocks such as STRC, STRF, STRD, STRK, and Class A common stock, with STRC being the primary target of the preferred stock repurchase plan. Neither of the repurchase plans will utilize dollar reserve funds.In addition, the company's board of directors has authorized the BTC monetization plan, allowing the company to raise up to $1.25 billion by selling Bitcoin, to supplement the dollar reserve, pay preferred stock dividends and interest expenses, or fund the aforementioned repurchase plans.

Analysis: STRC breaking below par value has sparked market controversy, and the Strategy Bitcoin financing flywheel is facing a test

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin has dropped about 40% since Strategy launched the Bitcoin financing tool STRC. STRC has fallen below the $100 par value, sparking discussions in the market about the sustainability of Michael Saylor's Bitcoin "flywheel" model. Strategy currently holds over 846,000 BTC, but the recent buying pace has noticeably slowed. Data shows that the company increased its holdings by 1,550 BTC worth approximately $101 million in the week ending June 8; in the week ending June 15, it added another 1,587 BTC worth about $100 million. In contrast, in April 2026, it bought 34,164 BTC in a single week, amounting to $2.54 billion, indicating a significant decrease in recent capital inflows.Meanwhile, Strategy previously sold 32 BTC to meet dividend obligations. Although this amount is small compared to its overall holdings, the market believes this indicates that when STRC's financing efficiency declines, the company's cash flow pressure may increase. STRC was originally designed as a preferred stock tool trading close to the $100 par value, attracting investors through dividend adjustments and helping Strategy raise funds to purchase Bitcoin. Currently, the STRC price has fallen to a historical low, having once dropped to $82.53, and then closed at $88.59, about 13% below par value. Critics argue that the STRC price falling below par value means that Strategy's financing channels are under pressure.Long-time Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff described STRC as "like a typical centralized Ponzi structure," believing that the model relies on continuous financing or selling Bitcoin to maintain operations. Crypto trader DonAlt also questioned STRC's recent performance, stating that its trading behavior resembles a "Ponzi structure." However, some analysts believe that the decline in STRC is more due to leveraged liquidations rather than a deterioration in Strategy's fundamentals. STRC had previously maintained a price around $99 to $100, attracting investors to use leveraged trading, and the price falling below this critical level triggered forced liquidations, exacerbating the decline.Analyst Scott Melker pointed out that STRC's current yield has actually increased due to the discount. Since dividends are calculated based on a $100 liquidation preference, if the STRC price is $90, the 11.5% annualized dividend corresponds to an actual yield of about 12.8%; if the price drops to $85, the yield could exceed 13%. Strategy is expected to announce the next STRC dividend adjustment on June 30. The market is currently focused on whether STRC's discount will persist and whether Strategy's model of relying on capital markets for financing to continue increasing BTC holdings can remain stable.
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