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Huobi HTX will hold a themed debate today at 20:00 titled "The Federal Reserve Cuts Forward Guidance: Regaining Independence or Triggering Market Panic?"The affirmative side representatives Li Qian, Guobao, Wanqu, and yuli will engage in dialogue with the negative side representatives Mr. Mis, Zizi, 0xmeg, and Qingfeng, focusing on the potential impacts of the Federal Reserve's weakening of forward guidance on policy transparency, market expectations, and asset pricing changes, as well as discussing how U.S. stocks, gold, and crypto assets will be repriced.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the demand for Bitcoin in the market has declined again. Although short-term holders are still taking profits, and selling pressure remains stable, apparent demand has turned negative again, indicating that demand has significantly weakened in the past few days.He believes that this change is also reflected in the price structure of Bitcoin, with the current trend tending to weaken. If demand does not recover in the short term, Bitcoin may face further downside risks.

BitMine Chairman Tom Lee stated on CNBC that after Nvidia announced strong performance, its stock price rose, breaking the previous trend where positive earnings reports struggled to drive stock prices, indicating that investors still value the company's fundamentals. Software stocks like Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and Okta also strengthened, reflecting a positive market response to downstream AI transactions, with an overall healthy market reaction.Regarding the weak performance of AI-related stocks such as Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, AMD, and Micron, Tom Lee believes that some investors may have previously underweighted Nvidia and might need to sell other tech stocks to raise funds for increasing their Nvidia holdings. He pointed out that Nvidia's earnings expectations have been significantly raised, but the stock price has not fully caught up, and the price-to-earnings ratio is still contracting, with the current valuation remaining relatively low.Tom Lee also mentioned that data center construction is gradually becoming a political issue in the U.S. midterm elections. Even some Republican-led states and states supporting data center development are beginning to consider pausing related projects, which may be one reason for the recent poor performance of AI infrastructure-related stocks, with more funds shifting towards downstream AI targets.

Bloomberg's chief economist Anna Wong stated that next week's non-farm payroll report may show weakness, with a certain probability of recording negative growth, which will have a critical impact on the Federal Reserve's policy path.She pointed out that if there are two consecutive negative non-farm data, there is no precedent in modern Federal Reserve history for raising interest rates under such circumstances.

Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, abbreviated as Dallas Fed, indicate that tokenized deposits and real-time blockchain transfers may weaken bank liquidity and limit their ability to issue long-term loans. The study was authored by Rosie Levy and Srini Ramaswamy.The research points out that of the $7 trillion in term risk borne by U.S. banks, approximately 80% is supported by the term characteristics of traditional deposits. If the weighted average term of deposits shortens by 10%, the banking system's term transformation capacity will decrease by about $580 billion, potentially increasing liquidity risk and pressure for fund outflows. Chris Turner, co-founder of Kula, stated that the speed of token transfers does not equate to the legal settlement of underlying financial claims. Tokens can be transferred through the blockchain network in seconds, but payments, ownership, and legal claims still rely on banks, custodians, clearing systems, and regulatory registries to complete the settlement.

Market expectations for the Bank of Japan tightening monetary policy are heating up, with weak demand for Japan's two-year government bond auction, the bid-to-cover ratio at 2.97, lower than last time's 3.63 and the past 12 months' average of 3.74. The tail difference is 0.034, higher than last month's 0.007, marking the weakest since 2016. The government led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi supports an interest rate hike as early as September, with overnight index swaps indicating a probability of about 84% for a rate hike in September.

CryptoQuant published an analysis stating that the Bitcoin Coinbase premium index rebounded to 0 on August 26 after being negative for 14 consecutive days. However, this rebound was accompanied by large-scale profit-taking: last week, realized profits averaged $933 million, a week-on-week increase of 824%; exchange inflows for 1 to 3-month tokens increased by 280%, and daily inflows to wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC reached 1,136 BTC (+235%).There are significant differences in exchange traffic: Binance had a net inflow averaging +2,184 BTC, while the overall exchange net outflow was -2,372 BTC, with Coinbase experiencing a single-day outflow of 3,499 BTC coinciding with the day the premium returned to zero. Long liquidations increased by 469%, far exceeding the 15% for short liquidations, and stablecoins continued to flow out, indicating that buying support is weakening. Analysts point out that history shows that under this structure, the probability of range-bound fluctuations or shallow corrections is higher than direct increases, and sustained upward movement requires the premium to remain above zero and stablecoin net inflows to turn positive; currently, only the first condition is met.

Zhao Changpeng stated at the "Bitcoin Asia 2026" conference in Hong Kong that Bitcoin itself does not weaken or strengthen government power; what truly matters is the choices made by the government. Historically, weak governments have sometimes led to better economic performance. For example, the U.S. government is relatively weak, yet it has created one of the strongest economies in the world; after the current SEC chairman relinquished some regulatory power, the industry actually experienced growth, while former chairman Gary Gensler's attempts to control everything stifled industry growth.He mentioned that Bitcoin, as a decentralized technology, allows individuals to have more sovereignty, but its privacy design has flaws, and on-chain transactions can be easily tracked; governments can choose whether to utilize these characteristics. For instance, declaring Bitcoin ownership illegal or imposing a 36% tax on every transaction would stifle industry development. The government may seem to have significant power, but a zero tax rate still results in zero revenue, while taxing a trillion-dollar market at 6% would yield substantial income.He also noted that most governments have relatively recognized Bitcoin, but many countries still lack a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. Among government officials, those who understand Bitcoin remain a minority, and in some countries, the older generation's dominance leads to a more conservative attitude. However, he does feel that a shift is occurring, despite some still holding the biased view that Bitcoin is primarily used by drug lords.

Bitcoin Magazine cites a report from FOX Business stating that Bitcoin could become a tool to hedge against the weakening dollar. Related comments point out that we just need to wait for it to start rising; once it kicks off and re-enters mainstream discussion, the market demand for it will increase.The report also mentions that Bitcoin has risen by 20%. This viewpoint links Bitcoin's performance with the dollar's trend and mainstream market attention.

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that participants believe the labor market conditions are stable and supply and demand are balanced. Some participants pointed out that signs of weakness in the labor market still exist, including low employment rates and high long-term unemployment rates.The demand for technical workers in AI-related industries is strong, and wages have risen significantly. Overall nominal wage growth is moderate, but there are upward risks for future wage growth.

Due to investors remaining cautious before the release of the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes, the dollar weakened.Recently, weak U.S. labor market data and moderate inflation data have led the market to lower its expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve.The dollar index DXY fell by as much as 0.2% to 99.472.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted that retail demand for Bitcoin is increasing and is close to the highest level in the past two years. Historical data shows a clear correlation between the growth of retail demand and local peaks in Bitcoin prices.Currently, the rebound of Bitcoin is weak, but retail demand has surged sharply. The analyst believes this may reflect the "impatience" of this group— they have become more sensitive to small fluctuations in BTC.

The $57,000 price level for Bitcoin is a key liquidation point for leveraged long positions. If liquidation is triggered, the weak liquidity situation may amplify the sell-off driven by liquidation.Despite the downside risks, Bitcoin's price shows resilience, and the potential head and shoulders bottom pattern keeps the bullish logic intact.

According to on-chain data analysis platform Glassnode, the current consumer confidence index has hit a historic low, yet the stock market continues to reach new highs. Funds are accelerating from cash into stocks, AI, and commodities, while Bitcoin has been significantly overlooked in this round of rotation.On-chain data shows that the heavy buy order support wall formed below the price has been continuously fading since June, and the bottom support structure is clearly thinning.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on the X platform that the inflow of XRP whale funds on the Binance platform has recently seen a significant decline, dropping to the lowest level since 2021 based on a 3-month average.Data shows that the current inflow of XRP whales to Binance is approximately $61 million, a substantial decrease compared to previous levels. In contrast, this metric reached $456 million in January 2025 and $355 million in October 2025, with the current level being about 6 to 8 times lower than before.Although XRP has been struggling to maintain the critical $1 price level recently, the inflow behavior of whale funds that previously preferred to conduct large transactions through Binance is decreasing. However, the net inflow of XRP remains positive at around $18.8 million, indicating that inflow funds still temporarily dominate.Darkfost pointed out that this trend is similar across the entire crypto market, with overall trading volume and fund inflows declining, which may reflect that selling pressure is easing, but new demand in the market has not yet shown a significant rebound. The cooling of whale trading activity is a positive signal for XRP, but it is still insufficient to confirm that the market has reversed, and it is too early to determine if XRP is starting a new upward trend.

Trader Murphy (@Murphychen888) posted on the X platform that the realized price for Bitcoin short-term holders (holding period < 3m) is currently about $67,900. Since June 20, BTC has been continuously suppressed after rebounding close to this cost line, and it has been nearly 2 months now. Meanwhile, the slope of this cost curve has approached zero, indicating that the related chip turnover activity continues to decline.Analysis points out that a similar situation occurred at the end of the bear markets in 2018 and 2022, when BTC was suppressed by the < 3m realized price for about 3 consecutive months, followed by severe fluctuations due to the BCH hash war and the FTX incident, respectively. Continuous suppression by this cost line may reflect that the market is in a structurally weak equilibrium state, and any external force could break this weak equilibrium.

According to ChainCatcher news, analysis from 10x Research suggests that Bitcoin may be decoupling from its correlation with the S&P 500. If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in September due to weak summer employment, Bitcoin is expected to become a major beneficiary alongside gold. The analysis states that after the FOMC meeting at the end of July 2026, bond traders were once convinced that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in September, with the market pricing in two rate hikes before the end of the year. However, the institution believes that four voters who leaned towards maintaining interest rates in July suddenly shifted to a higher threshold for rate hikes within six weeks.More importantly, seasonal factors play a role; historically, the labor market has performed poorly in the summer, which has previously driven rate cuts in September 2024 and September 2025. With the World Cup ending, similar employment weakness may force bond market traders to reassess their rate hike expectations, at which point gold and Bitcoin are expected to benefit.

Wintermute released a market update indicating that the U.S. non-farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000 in July, significantly weaker than market expectations, leading to a drop in September rate hike expectations from 55% to 40%, and driving a broad rebound in risk assets.Gold led the gains, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, Bitcoin, and altcoins generally rising, while Brent crude oil fell by 6.85%.

According to The Block, BlackRock's head of digital assets, Robert Mitchnick, stated that there has been a noticeable but subtle improvement in Bitcoin market sentiment over the past month, and the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks is weakening, which is healthy for the argument of Bitcoin as a portfolio diversification tool and tail risk hedge.He pointed out that Bitcoin significantly outperformed during the major pullback in the AI sector in July, which is a manifestation of this decoupling. Although Bitcoin has fallen nearly 30% this year and about 50% from a year ago, ETF investors continue to buy—last week, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded an inflow of $853.5 million, marking the best weekly performance since mid-April, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $693.7 million (over 80%) and Fidelity's FBTC contributing $116.4 million. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that after the Coldcard vulnerability was exposed, multiple funds recorded net inflows daily, "it's hard not to see it as a causal relationship."

The South African National Treasury and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) have released a draft regulation for cross-border transfers of crypto assets. Farzam Ehsani, co-founder and CEO of the crypto asset trading platform VALR, stated that unless key terms are significantly modified, the relevant framework could harm the domestic digital asset industry and drive funds overseas.The draft allows individual residents to transfer crypto assets abroad within the existing foreign exchange limits but restricts companies from engaging in cross-border crypto asset transactions and categorizes some deposits from private non-custodial wallets as unacceptable transfers for local crypto asset service providers (CASP). Ehsani believes this could prompt businesses and retail investors to turn to overseas platforms.Ehsani pointed out that prohibiting regulated entities from processing legitimate business transactions, especially cross-border stablecoin payments, could push transactions underground or abroad, thereby undermining the visibility and monitoring capabilities that regulators hope to achieve. The South African National Treasury and SARB have opened a public consultation, with the feedback deadline set for September 30.