weak

Eight TLS certificates issued by eMudhra in India were found to have extremely weak private keys, allowing attackers to impersonate almost any website. Major browsers have blocked the affected certificates, but millions of servers, Linux systems, and connected devices may still need updates.A cryptography expert warned that the scale of this cleanup may exceed that of the Heartbleed vulnerability in 2014, and there is currently no confirmation of any malicious exploitation.

Further analysis reveals that the activities of whales (large holders) are weakening. The 90-day moving average of whale outflows for XRP has dropped to $4.97 million, the lowest level since October 2021. CryptoQuant believes that this lack of whale interest may indicate that large investors are waiting for more advantageous buying prices, thus delaying the increase of their market exposure. From a long-term perspective, this suggests that XRP may lack buying support in the absence of whale backing.In a broader market context, the investor group for Bitcoin (BTC) also showed signs of retreat in October. According to a report by Glassnode, Bitcoin's realized profit-loss ratio fell from 0.8 to 0.4, a decrease of 50%. This change indicates that market participants are shifting from aggressive trading to a more stable sentiment, reducing profit-taking activities and reflecting a shift in market sentiment.

On-chain data analyst XWIN cited CryptoQuant data indicating that Bitcoin's current on-chain data is showing a significant divergence between whale behavior and the spot market. Although large holders have begun to accumulate again, demand in the spot market remains weak, and the market is transitioning from "seller exhaustion" to a potential bottom. XWIN stated that on-chain data shows positive accumulation signals. Holders of 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoins have significantly reversed their 60-day net accumulation from negative 62,600 to positive 5,230, indicating that major whales are shifting from a distribution model back to accumulation.At the same time, the USDT reserves on the Binance trading platform have surged from about 790 million USD to 1.76 billion USD, suggesting that potential buying power in the market is increasing. However, spot buying in the U.S. has not kept pace. The Coinbase premium index is currently around -0.1416%, and weekly trading platform flow has turned into a net inflow of 8,428 BTC. Additionally, the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) hovers around 0.9982, indicating that short-term holders are still experiencing slight losses near the breakeven point and are choosing to sell.Analysts believe that while the underlying structure is improving, stronger spot demand is still urgently needed to spark a sustainable rebound. They suggest that investors focus on three key signals in the future: the trend of the Coinbase premium index, changes in exchange net flow, and whether the STH-SOPR can successfully rise above the 1 mark.

Analysts from IT Tech pointed out that in the past 30 days, only 4.4% of BTC held for 6-12 months flowed into exchanges, while this proportion was as high as 40.4% in mid-June. These BTC mainly come from holders who bought near or after the peak in 2025.The monthly moving volume remains between 143,700 and 216,500 BTC, but the proportion flowing to exchanges has continued to decline significantly: mid-June: 40.4%, mid-July: 30.9%, mid-August: 9.8%, mid-September: 3.7%, mid-October: 4.4%. Analysts believe that high-position buyers have basically stopped selling, which alleviates the resistance to price increases. However, the market still needs new buying pressure to drive prices up, and currently, new buying pressure has not yet appeared significantly.

The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Waller failed to boost the dollar, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropping 0.4% on Friday, set to record its worst weekly performance since September 4. The dollar weakened against most major currencies, with the euro rising. Waller did not comment on monetary policy at the International Monetary Fund annual meeting, and investors reduced their bets on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month.

On-chain analyst Murphy posted on the X platform, stating that during the recent decline of BTC, the scale of short-term holders (STH) transferring BTC to exchanges has significantly increased, averaging about 2,200 BTC transferred per hour over a 4-hour period, reaching the fourth highest level since the market rally began in August this year. However, the peak of transfers has fallen below that of October 8, indicating that the potential selling pressure from short-term holders has weakened.In contrast, long-term holders (LTH) transferred an average of only about 480 BTC to exchanges per hour during the same period, which is about one-fifth of the short-term holders. Murphy pointed out that on October 8, long-term holders experienced a peak transfer of about 3,700 BTC per hour, which may be partly related to asset transfers triggered by security incidents involving hardware wallets. However, considering that both short-term and long-term holders experienced large-scale transfers that day, and the rapid decline in BTC prices, there remains actual selling pressure in the market. Murphy believes that during the current decline, the main transfers to exchanges are from short-term holders, while long-term holders remain relatively stable overall, and the intensity of transfers from short-term holders has weakened compared to before, reflecting that the structure of BTC holders still has a certain resilience.

Despite the S&P 500 Index closing at a historic high this week, the rally was primarily driven by companies benefiting from the artificial intelligence boom, overshadowing signs of weakness in the U.S. economy and financial markets. Companies like Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia performed strongly, while stocks in the consumer, travel, transportation, real estate, and financial sectors declined.When the S&P 500 Index reached its historic high, only 30% of its constituent stocks were trading above the 50-day moving average.

According to Nikkei News, due to weak demand, Apple (AAPL.O) has reduced orders for the iPhone 18 Pro.

CryptoQuant posted on platform X that Bitcoin miners have recently stopped large-scale selling. Since Bitcoin hit a low of $76,000 on August 21, the miner status has shifted from "extremely undervalued compensation" to "reasonable compensation," and there has been no further extreme outflow of miner funds.CryptoQuant stated that miner selling pressure was an important source of supply that continuously affected Bitcoin prices during the bear market of 2026. The current disappearance of this stable selling pressure may help alleviate market supply pressure.

According to Gate market data, Deutsche Bank strategists stated that the widening bond spreads and rising inflation concerns are putting pressure on risk assets. The STOXX 600 index fell by 1%, the French CAC 40 index fell by 1.22%, and the Italian FTSE MIB index fell by 2.51%, while European bank stocks dropped by 3.38%.The S&P 500 index fell by 0.22%, with industrial and materials stocks down by 2.14% and 1.53%, respectively. The Nasdaq index and the seven tech giants fell by 0.22% and 0.2%, respectively, while the Russell 2000 index dropped by 1.31%.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin posted on the X platform, stating that AI-accelerated mathematical research may pose new security threats to existing cryptographic systems, especially lattice-based cryptographic schemes, including ML-DSA and fully homomorphic encryption (FHE). He believes that advancements in AI in the field of mathematics over the next two years could significantly undermine the practical security of lattice cryptography, and ECDSA may face the risk of being compromised sooner than expected.Vitalik pointed out that over the past year, the Ethereum Lean roadmap has gradually shifted towards pure hash cryptographic schemes, avoiding the use of lattice-based signatures and related zero-knowledge proof structures. He suggested prioritizing the use of hash cryptography whenever feasible and adopting more conservative security parameters for lattice cryptography; privacy protocols should avoid storing encrypted information directly on-chain, and multi-signature wallets should prioritize off-chain signature confirmations. Additionally, Vitalik advised users, when operationally convenient, to store funds in addresses that have not initiated transactions to reduce potential risks, but he does not recommend users immediately migrate assets on a large scale. He emphasized that the migration process itself also carries risks, and his own losses due to migration errors have even exceeded the losses from past hacking attacks.

Moody's has assigned a B3 rating to the decentralized finance protocol Sky, with a stable outlook. This rating places Sky in Moody's speculative grade category.Moody's noted that Sky's capital buffer is relatively weak, with equity capital of approximately 90 million dollars, while the assets under management are about 10 billion dollars.

Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision, stated in the Cointelegraph podcast Trade Secrets that a weakening dollar could signal a green light for the crypto market, driving the industry's upward momentum.He pointed out that rising bond yields and a strong dollar are restricting the free flow of liquidity, and if the dollar can decline, crypto will receive further upward signals. He also mentioned that he would not be overly optimistic and has not given a comprehensive bullish signal for all assets.Pal believes that when AI trading pauses, funds will rotate into the crypto market. He noted that Bitcoin rose about 25% to $80,000 from August 19 to 25, while AI leader stock Nvidia fell for seven consecutive trading days. His preferred scenario is a weakening dollar, a steepening yield curve, and banks expanding the money supply by increasing lending; if these conditions do not occur, the suboptimal scenario is that AI stocks consolidate, allowing funds to rotate into crypto. He also warned that a burst AI bubble would mean liquidity is withdrawn, which would be detrimental to crypto.Regarding AI agents, Pal believes their economic activities will flow more towards smart contract platforms like Ethereum and Solana, rather than Bitcoin. AI agents can pay for network content using stablecoins, with Amazon Web Services launching related features in June, and Coinbase handling payment verification and settlement through the x402 protocol. On the claim that Solana could surpass Ethereum in market capitalization, Pal takes a cautious stance, stating that Ethereum has a higher capital concentration, while Solana's core activities are speculative and of smaller individual scale.

The Ethereum staking withdrawal queue has retreated from last week's peak. After MetaMask began withdrawing validators, the withdrawal queue once climbed to about 851,000 ETH, and is currently down to about 767,000 ETH. Previously, on September 29, the queue was only about 166,000 ETH, growing more than five times in just a few days, reaching about 2% of the total staked ETH of approximately 43.6 million.On September 30, MetaMask disclosed a security incident affecting some of its infrastructure and took the affected validators offline as a precaution. Its update on October 1 stated that the investigation found no signs of impact on wallets or customer funds. In addition to its wallet services, MetaMask also operates validators for the staking service provider Lido. Ethereum security researcher Kaden estimates that this precautionary withdrawal involves about 17,000 validators and approximately 523,000 ETH, although MetaMask has not confirmed this data.Lido expects that as the affected validators withdraw and their balances are extracted, these ETH will gradually be restaked, a process that may take about 45 days. During the downtime, the affected validators will miss out on rewards, and Lido stated that stETH holders do not need to take any action. Meanwhile, the demand for entering the staking queue has cooled, with about 1.5 million ETH waiting to enter, and the estimated waiting time is about 25 days.

According to Coinglass data, as Bitcoin strengthens again, the current funding rates of mainstream CEX and DEX show a significant weakening of the bearish sentiment in the market.Funding rates are the rates set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain the balance between contract prices and the prices of underlying assets, usually applicable to perpetual contracts. It is a mechanism for the exchange of funds between long and short traders, and trading platforms do not charge this fee. When the funding rate is 0.01%, it represents the benchmark rate; a rate greater than 0.01% indicates a generally bullish market, while a rate less than 0.005% indicates a generally bearish market.

According to Axel Adler Jr's monitoring, although the price of Bitcoin has further risen to around $87,000, the market's profit-taking pressure is weaker than in August. During the second round of price increases, profits realized were 19% lower than during the first round, and losses also decreased.At the peak of the first round of increases on August 26, the price of Bitcoin was about $78,600, with profits realized over the past 7 days reaching $9.1 billion; at the peak of the second round on September 24, the price of Bitcoin rose to $84,100, with profits realized over the past 7 days amounting to $7.3 billion, a 19% decrease from the previous round. During the same period, losses realized over the past 7 days dropped from $2.6 billion to $1.5 billion. As of today, Bitcoin's net realized profit over the past 7 days is $4.3 billion.The Short-Term Holder SOPR has remained above 1 since August 20, indicating that the overall Bitcoin transferred by short-term holders is still in profit, but the profit margin has narrowed. At the peak on August 26, the corresponding profit margin for short-term holder SOPR was 2.8%; it dropped to 1.6% at the peak on September 23; and as of today, it has further decreased to 1%. During the pullback of Bitcoin to $76,500 on September 17, the short-term holder SOPR fell to a low of 1.003, with the profit margin for short-term holders transferring Bitcoin narrowing to 0.3%, but it did not fall below 1.

Federal Reserve's Williams stated that the downside risks to achieving full employment have diminished.

Cryptocurrency analyst @AxelAdlerJr posted that after August 19, the number of bitcoins held by long-term holders has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks, but the pace of reduction in the last 30 days has significantly slowed from 105,900 BTC on August 30 to 21,700 BTC on September 20 (nearly five times slower).In addition, the amount of bitcoins held by long-term holders decreased by 47,800 BTC last week. LTH SOPR data shows that most of them were sold at a loss.