SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240122): BTC Under Pressure, Continuing Risky Flow

Last Friday (19 JAN), the U.S. one-year inflation expectation for January recorded at 2.8%, the lowest level since 2020. The Michigan Consumer Confidence Index recorded a higher-than-expected 78.8, the highest since July 2021. In the past few days, U.S. Treasury yields have fluctuated slightly around recent highs, with the two-year/ten-year rates at 4.395% / 4.113%. On the other hand, influenced by the relatively hawkish remarks from several Federal Reserve officials and strong data, the market has raised the probability expectation of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates in March to 56.8%. The upcoming FOMC on February 1 is considered a key point for the Federal Reserve's stance, and this week's core data, including PMI and PCE, will also have a significant impact on the content of the next meeting.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

Source: Binance & TradingView

In terms of digital currencies, Bitcoin's price has declined again due to continued selling pressure from GBTC, falling below the 41000 mark. The front-end implied volatility has slightly increased, and the curve has flattened. Large trades have been relatively lackluster, but the front-end risky flow of buying puts and selling calls, represented by 26 JAN 24, remains a popular operation among retail investors. The P/C ratio of ETH trading volume reached a low of 0.15 at the recent settlement point, with large buy orders for 2 FEB 24-2550-C (Size: 23950 ETH) and 29 MAR 24-2700-C (Size: 17717 ETH) becoming the market focus.

Source: Deribit (as of 22 JAN 16:00 UTC+8)

Source: SignalPlus

Source: SignalPlus

Source: Laevitas

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade