Matrixport Research: Ethereum Upgrade Brings Structural Improvements, Rebound Opportunities Are Emerging

The rebound in the current cryptocurrency market is gradually unfolding, but the internal driving logic has shown significant divergence. Bitcoin continues its rebound trend, but overall it remains within a bearish framework; meanwhile, clues pointing to more structural changes in the market are gradually directing attention towards Ethereum. Currently, the derivative positions of BTC and ETH have both fallen back to unusually low levels, and the position structure has been reset, leading to a significant increase in the market's price sensitivity to new exposures. Against this backdrop, the recent network upgrade completed by Ethereum has had a substantial impact on its underlying economic structure, but the related changes have not yet been fully priced in by the market, making it a more noteworthy trading focus at this stage.

Position structure reset, market more sensitive to new funds

From the perspective of position structure, both Bitcoin and Ethereum currently have futures open interest levels that are historically low. This indicates that the previously accumulated long and short exposures have significantly receded, compressing the overall leverage structure in the market. In a similar position reset environment, once new directional funds start to enter, price fluctuations are often rapidly amplified. Earlier this year, under a similar position backdrop, Ethereum triggered a rise of about 38% in a short period. This familiar structure is re-emerging, providing the necessary conditions for a phase rebound.

Upgrade effects gradually emerging, Ethereum's short-term performance may outperform Bitcoin

Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's recent network upgrade has directly improved its operational efficiency, cost structure, and the scalability between L1 and L2, further strengthening its economic attributes as a core asset for Gas, collateral, and DeFi. Historical experience shows that improvements in network efficiency often lead to higher levels of on-chain activity, ultimately translating into structural demand for ETH. After the last upgrade, ETH not only saw a significant price increase but also its futures open interest surged from about $8 billion to $16 billion. Currently, although the treasury-type buying from Ethereum-related enterprises is more scattered than before, 35.8% of the trading volume in the options market still comes from call option purchases, indicating that some traders have begun to reposition for upward movement. From a price path perspective, ETH still has room to advance towards the $3,300--$3,500 range, making participation in the rebound through a call spread strategy a clearer choice in terms of risk and return boundaries.

Overall, this rebound should be viewed as a tactical opportunity within a bearish environment rather than a trend reversal. As long as the Bitcoin price remains below the 21-week moving average, its upward attribute still belongs to a rebound logic rather than a structural bull market; relatively speaking, higher upward elasticity remains concentrated on the Ethereum side. The combination of position reset and upgrade variables provides ETH with a better short-term risk-return structure, but this window relies on trading-level grasp rather than long-term trend judgment. For investors, the key at this stage is to seize the tactical opportunities brought about by structural improvements, rather than prematurely betting that a new cycle has already begun.

The above views are partly derived from Matrix on Target. Contact us for the complete report on Matrix on Target.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.