Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Circle completes $222 million ARC pre; US CPI data is coming; US-Iran ceasefire agreement is on the brink of collapse (May 12, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

U.S. April CPI data released today, Morgan Stanley warns of "more explosive" figures

• The U.S. enters "Inflation Week" this week, with April CPI, PPI, and import price data to be released successively; Morgan Stanley's global macro strategy chief expects today's CPI month-over-month increase may exceed expectations, with a core focus on the impact on the PCE inflation path.
• The market generally expects the overall CPI to rise 0.6% month-over-month, and the core CPI to rise 0.3%, driven by energy and rental factors. This data will directly test the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations; if it exceeds expectations, it may delay the easing pace, posing short-term risks to risk assets but strengthening the dollar.

International Commodities

Trump calls Iran's response "stupid," U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement in jeopardy

• Trump reiterated that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons and hinted at possibly expanding the "freedom of navigation plan" in the Strait of Hormuz; Iran stated that its "14-point proposal" has no alternative, and passage through the strait remains restricted.
• Saudi Aramco warned that if the strait remains blocked, the global oil market could see a reduction of about 10 million barrels per week. Geopolitical tensions are directly driving up oil prices, providing short-term support for the energy sector but exacerbating global inflation pressures, with safe-haven assets like gold and silver also strengthening.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: +0.38%, at $4,753 per ounce.
• Spot Silver: +0.19%, at $86 per ounce.
• WTI Crude Oil: +0.51%, at $98 per barrel.
• Brent Crude Oil: +0.49%, at $104 per barrel.
• Dollar Index: Slight fluctuations around 98.063.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: +0.1%, current price around $81,549.
• ETH: -0.74%, current price around $2,330.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: +0.2%, approximately $2.81 trillion.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24H approximately $221 million, with long positions liquidated at $112 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: BTC's current price is around 81,565, with significant high-leverage short liquidation pressure above $82,200-$83,000. If it continues to rise in the short term, it may trigger a chain liquidation of shorts. Below $80,000-$81,000, there is a dense area for long position liquidations; if it breaks below, it may trigger a long squeeze and exacerbate volatility.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a slight net inflow of about $34.6 million yesterday; ETH spot ETF saw a slight net outflow of $17.9 million.
• BTC Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday, BTC spot saw a net outflow of $193 million, with contract net outflow of $1.35 billion.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Up 0.02%, at 49,609 points, continuing cautious fluctuations.
• S&P 500: Up 0.84%, at 7,399 points, setting a new historical high.
• Nasdaq: Up 1.71%, at 26,247 points, driven by AI-related sectors.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Apple (AAPL): Up 2.05%, at $293.32
• Amazon (AMZN): Up 0.56%, at $272.68
• Google A (GOOGL): Up 0.71%, at $400.80
• Meta (META): Down 1.16%, at $610
• Microsoft (MSFT): Down 1.34%, at $415.12
• Nvidia (NVDA): Up 1.75%, at $215.20
• Tesla (TSLA): Up 4.02%, at $428.35 Overall, tech giants showed mixed performance, with Tesla significantly boosted by news of Musk joining Trump's delegation to China, Nvidia benefiting from sustained high demand for AI data center capital expenditures, while some giants like Meta and Microsoft experienced pullbacks due to profit-taking and sector rotation.

Sector Movement Observation

Storage Concept rose over 6-8%

• Representative stocks: Qualcomm rose over 8%, Western Digital rose over 7%, Micron Technology rose over 6%
• Driving factors: Sustained high growth in AI data center capital expenditures and strong storage demand, with the sector reaching a historical closing high.

Optical Communication rose over 10-26%

• Representative stocks: POET Technologies surged over 26%, Applied Optoelectronics rose over 24%, Lumentum rose over 16%
• Driving factors: The AI wave has led to an explosion in demand for optical modules, with Lumentum receiving additional boosts from its upcoming inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index.

# 3. In-depth Analysis of U.S. Stocks

1. Lumentum (LITE.US) - Included in the Nasdaq 100 Index

Event Overview: Lumentum's stock price surged 16.52% on Monday, closing at $1,053.09 and setting a historical high, after the company announced it would officially be included in the Nasdaq 100 index on May 18, replacing Costa. The cumulative increase for the year has reached 186%, with a staggering 1368% increase over the past 12 months. The company continues to benefit from the rapid growth of AI data center construction and capital expenditures from hyperscale cloud providers. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe that inclusion in the index will bring passive capital inflows, further amplifying the premium in the AI supply chain. Investment Insight: The theme of AI infrastructure still has long-term certainty; pay attention to the valuation expansion space of similar optical communication targets.

2. Circle (CRCL.US) - Strong Q1 Performance and USDC Growth

Event Overview: Circle's Q1 revenue grew 20% year-over-year to $694 million, while net profit fell 15% year-over-year to $55 million, mainly due to a 76% increase in stock compensation expenses post-IPO; USDC circulation increased 28% year-over-year to $77 billion, becoming the core driving force. The company completed a $222 million pre-sale for the ARC ecosystem and is advancing the Agent Stack platform into the AI payment field, maintaining its full-year guidance. Market Interpretation: Institutions are optimistic about the long-term growth potential of the stablecoin business, with AI payment layout seen as a new growth point. Investment Insight: The expansion of the USDC ecosystem provides certainty for crypto infrastructure; it is recommended to pay attention to the long-term allocation value of stablecoin-related targets.

3. Tesla (TSLA.US) - Musk Joins Trump's Delegation to China

Event Overview: Tesla's stock price rose nearly 4% on Monday, with Bloomberg reporting that Elon Musk will be a member of Trump's delegation to China. Market Interpretation: The market believes this move may bring favorable policy expectations for Tesla's business in China. Investment Insight: In the context of high-level interactions between China and the U.S., pay attention to cross-border opportunities for automotive and tech giants, but be wary of geopolitical variables.

4. Moderna (MRNA.US) - Limited Commercial Impact from Hantavirus Incident

Event Overview: Despite the World Health Organization emphasizing that the risk of widespread transmission of Andes hantavirus is low, Moderna's stock initially surged in the morning, but Evercore ISI analysts pointed out that the company is unlikely to gain substantial revenue from the incident, and the stock ultimately closed down nearly 3%. Market Interpretation: Institutions emphasize that fluctuations in pandemic-related trades often far exceed actual commercial impacts. Investment Insight: Biotech stocks are easily driven by news in the short term, but long-term focus should remain on pipelines and commercialization.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. MARA announced Q1 2026 financial and operational data, with a net loss of $1.3 billion (diluted loss per share of $3.31), compared to a net loss of $533.4 million in the same period last year, primarily due to a $1 billion loss from changes in the fair value of digital assets. During the quarter, it produced 2,247 BTC at an average cost of $76,288; sold 20,880 BTC at an average price of $70,137.

2. 21 Shares US announced that its Hyperliquid ETF (THYP) will launch on May 12, 2026, Eastern Time. According to the prospectus, THYP is a passive spot HYPE ETF aimed at tracking the performance of the FTSE Hyperliquid Index and plans to pledge part of its HYPE holdings under controllable compliance and tax risks.

3. The Ethereum Foundation is restructuring the Protocol team, with core developers Barnabé Monnot and Tim Beiko planning to resign, and Alex Stokes will take a leave of absence. Will Corcoran, Kev Wedderburn, and Fredrik will serve as new co-leads.

4. Bitcoin mining company CleanSpark announced its Q2 financial report, with a net loss of $378.3 million, a 173% increase from a net loss of $138.8 million in the same period last year, with a Bitcoin holding loss of $224.1 million. The company held Bitcoin worth $925.2 million at the end of the quarter. Bitcoin mining revenue was $136.4 million, down 25% year-over-year. CleanSpark is accelerating its transition to AI and high-performance computing infrastructure.

5. Circle released the Arc white paper, with the mainnet expected to launch in the summer of 2026, and the testnet was launched in October 2025, processing a cumulative total of 244.1 million transactions as of May 5, 2026. Arc is positioned as a public Layer 1 blockchain for institutions, compatible with EVM, natively integrating USDC, supporting sub-second deterministic settlement, stablecoin-denominated gas fees, and configurable privacy features, with cross-chain transfers completed via Circle CCTP.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

|-------|----|--------|-------| | 20:30 | U.S. | April CPI | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ | | 20:30 | U.S. | April Real Income | ⭐⭐⭐ |

Important Event Forecast

May 12 (Tuesday)

1. U.S. April CPI data released, market expects a slight year-over-year increase of 3.8%; ★★★★★
2. New York Fed President Williams participates in a monetary policy panel discussion;
3. Oklo Inc (OKLO) to release financial report after market close.

May 13 (Wednesday)

1. U.S. April PPI data to be released at 20:30 (UTC+8);
2. U.S. stock Alibaba (BABA) to release financial report before market open; Nebius and Cisco (CSCO) to release Q1 financial reports after market close.

May 14 (Thursday)

1. Trump may visit China on May 14-15; the U.S. government invites CEOs from Nvidia, Apple, ExxonMobil, Boeing, etc. to join; ★★★★★
2. U.S. stock Applied Materials (AMAT) to release financial report after market close, Cerebras Systems expected to list on Nasdaq;

May 15 (Friday)

1. Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chairman officially ends, with Waller expected to take over;
2. Deadline for institutional 13F filings, with Berkshire and others to disclose their latest U.S. stock holdings.

*This week's core themes in U.S. stocks revolve around Powell's term ending and Waller's succession, U.S. CPI/PPI data, the potential for Trump's visit to China, and financial reports from Circle, Oklo, AMAT, etc., with expected increased market volatility.

Institutional Views:

Wall Street analysts generally believe that this week's CPI data will become a market barometer; if inflation exceeds expectations, it may temporarily suppress risk appetite, but the AI supercycle narrative is still seen as a long-term mainline. JPMorgan Private Bank points out that "the AI supercycle may just be beginning," maintaining optimism for tech stocks. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius emphasizes that the global economy is "bending rather than breaking," and while the situation in Iran brings short-term volatility, it does not change the overall growth trajectory. In the crypto space, the advancement of the Clarity Act is seen as regulatory favorable, combined with continuous inflows into BTC ETFs, institutions expect that short-term geopolitical risks and inflation data will jointly shape the volatility range, but the long-term trends for AI and crypto infrastructure remain unchanged. Overall, the market is seeking a balance between inflation data and geopolitical events, with tech and commodity sectors likely to continue to diverge.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification and publication, and is not intended as any investment advice. The data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.