Bitget UEX Daily Report｜The US temporarily lifts sanctions on Iranian oil; the semiconductor sector is strong but warning signs appear; SpaceX's pullback drags down tech stocks

I. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics RBC Strategist: U.S. Stocks Can Withstand Moderate Rate Hikes

• Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, stated that as long as the Federal Reserve implements about two rate hikes of 25 basis points each within the next 12 months, the stock market should remain robust; newly appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that high inflation will not be tolerated, but the market still recorded consecutive gains.
• U.S. stocks rebounded during a shortened trading week, with the S&P 500 rising about 18% from its low at the end of March. Market Impact: Moderate tightening expectations have not significantly suppressed risk appetite, but investors need to be cautious of inflation data providing further guidance on the policy path.

International Commodities U.S. Temporarily Lifts Oil Sanctions on Iran for 60 Days

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced on the 22nd that as part of the U.S.-Iran negotiation framework, the Treasury Department issued a 60-day general license, exempting restrictions on the production, delivery, sale, and import of Iranian crude oil, petrochemicals, and petroleum products until August 21, 2026.
• This move marks the return of Iranian crude oil to the U.S. market after 35 years, potentially increasing global supply and easing tensions in the Middle East. Market Impact: Short-term oil prices are under pressure, with hedge funds increasing WTI net short positions to near five-month highs, highlighting expectations of supply returning; at the same time, it injects new variables into the energy market.

Macroeconomic Policy Trump Signs Executive Orders to Promote Quantum Computing Research

• Trump signed two executive orders directing federal agencies to collaborate with the private sector, aiming to deploy quantum computers for scientific research by 2028 and strengthen quantum system security preparations to address encryption threats. Market Impact: Boosts the long-term outlook for tech infrastructure, potentially benefiting related supply chains, but creates thematic divergence in the traditional semiconductor sector in the short term.

II. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance (Real-time Update)

• Spot Gold: Approximately $4,200/ounce, 24h change of about -0.2%
• Spot Silver: Approximately $65/ounce, 24h change of about -0.5%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approximately $74/barrel, 24h change of about +0.4%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approximately $78/barrel, 24h change of about +0.3%
• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Approximately 101.0 points, 24h change of about +0.1%

Driving Factors Analysis: The temporary peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran and the lifting of the 60-day oil sanctions open the door for the recovery of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and increased supply. Hedge funds significantly increased WTI net short positions to near five-month peaks, with oil prices facing short-term downward pressure but increased volatility. The hawkish statements from new Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh supported a slight strengthening of the dollar, combined with inflation expectations, leading to profit-taking in precious metals, with gold and silver prices slightly retreating. Although AI-driven industrial demand provides long-term support for resources like copper, the current geopolitical easing and dollar movements dominate short-term correlations. Investors like Rick Rule point out that physical resource bottlenecks may become an invisible constraint on AI expansion, with the market focusing on the ongoing impact of U.S.-Iran negotiations on energy prices. Overall, inter-asset correlations indicate a warming risk appetite but cautious sentiment remains, with the negative correlation characteristics between oil and gold re-emerging.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approximately $64,190, +0.35%
• ETH: Approximately $1,730, +0.32%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approximately $2.28 trillion, +0.1%
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation of approximately $368 million in 24h, with long positions liquidated at approximately $203 million
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price is approximately $64,211, with a large number of long liquidation chips concentrated in the range of $63,200-$64,000; if the price falls back to this area, it may trigger a chain reaction of long liquidations and exacerbate downward volatility. There is more concentrated short liquidation pressure in the range of $65,300-$66,000; if BTC continues to rise, it may easily lead to short squeezes, pushing the price further above $66,500.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: Approximately $100 million net inflow into BTC spot ETF yesterday.

Driving Factors Analysis: Progress in U.S.-Iran peace alleviates geopolitical risks, combined with a relatively stable macro environment, providing mild support for the cryptocurrency market, with BTC and ETH rebounding slightly and total market cap rising steadily. ETF inflows continue, indicating sustained institutional interest, but leverage liquidation data shows that the market still faces profit-taking pressure at high levels. Major holders like MicroStrategy continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings, with BTC oscillating around key ranges, showing some divergence from ETH. The overall trend is biased towards oscillation, with macro dollar movements and risk appetite remaining dominant factors; investors should pay attention to the impact of deepening geopolitical negotiations on safe-haven assets and the process of deleveraging.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at approximately 51,637 points (+0.29%)
• S&P 500: Closed at approximately 7,471 points (-0.37%)
• Nasdaq: Closed at approximately 26,167 points (-1.32%)

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: Approximately $208.65 (-0.97%)
• AAPL: Approximately $297.01 (-0.34%)
• MSFT: Approximately $367.34 (-3.18%)
• GOOGL: Approximately $349.68 (-4.99%)
• AMZN: Approximately $232.79 (-4.75%)
• META: Approximately $563.85 (-2.32%)
• TSLA: Approximately $405.05 (+1.14%)

Performance Summary and Driving Analysis: U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones relatively resilient while the Nasdaq faced significant pressure, and tech giants exhibited notable divergence. The semiconductor sector was overall strong, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reaching new highs, and Micron (MU) stock breaking above $1,200 for the first time, but BTIG warned that similar historical trends often occur at market tops. GOOGL experienced a sharp drop due to the departure of key AI talent John Jumper to Anthropic, with AMZN also adjusting; in contrast, core AI stocks like NVDA saw capital replenishment, while TSLA remained relatively stable. SpaceX's stock plummeted over 16%, evaporating $400 billion in market value and falling below its IPO closing price, further dragging down related sentiment. Overall, while the enthusiasm for AI themes remains strong, valuation pressures and specific company events like talent movement have intensified stock divergence, with geopolitical easing providing macro buffers.

Overview of Cryptocurrency Stock Derivatives

24H Total Transaction Volume: $15.54 billion (+381.90%)

Total Open Interest: $5.30 billion (+4.82%)

24H Total Liquidation: $37.84 million

Proportion: Transaction Volume 9.17%, Open Interest 4.98%, Liquidation 10.28%

Sector Position Performance (Major Sectors)

Technology: $2.68 billion

Finance: $164 million

Consumer: $78.89 million

Industrial: $30.65 million

Biotechnology: $15.82 million

Trend Observation: The scale of positions in the technology sector continues to expand and maintain an absolute lead, with market funds still primarily concentrated in AI and semiconductor-related targets.

Market Heatmap (Position-Based)

Top Asset Position Rankings (Unit: $100 million):

SPCX: $834 million ------ Currently the largest position size

MU: $490 million

SKHX: $338 million

NVDA: $259 million

SNDK: $257 million

INTC: $219 million

MRVL: $172 million

GOOGL: $118 million

CRCL: $109 million

MSFT: $96 million

TSLA: $90 million

MSTR: $88 million

BZ: $72 million

In terms of capital flow, MU, TSLA, LITE, AAPL, AMD, and other targets show signs of increased positions; SPCX, SKHX, NVDA, MRVL, GOOGL, CRCL, MSFT, MSTR, and other targets show reductions or capital outflows.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductor Sector Shows Outstanding Gains

• Representative Stocks: Micron Technology (MU) rose over 6%, Intel (INTC) rose over 5%, and chip stocks like SanDisk also recorded positive performances.
• Driving Factors: The strong demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced process chips from AI data centers continues to be released, coupled with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) reaching new historical highs, driving the overall upward movement of the sector. Micron, as a leader in memory, directly benefits from the AI computing power expansion cycle. However, BTIG Chief Technical Strategist Jonathan Krinsky warns that the strong ratio of SOX relative to the Nasdaq 100 is approaching historically extreme levels (similar to the tech bubble period of 2000-2001), with multiple occurrences of daily gains exceeding 5% in the past 60 trading days, indicating that technical pullback risks should be taken seriously. In the short term, the sector may oscillate between AI theme support and profit-taking pressure, and investors should pay attention to valuation matching and macro liquidity changes.

1. SpaceX (SPCX.US) - Significant Pullback Event Overview: SpaceX's stock price plummeted over 16% on Monday, instantly evaporating about $400 billion in market value and falling below its record IPO closing price. Previously, the company had just completed a $75 billion IPO in the U.S., becoming a market focus. At the same time, SpaceX signed a computing power cooperation agreement worth over $6 billion with the open-source AI startup Reflection AI, which will connect to the Colossus supercluster's NVIDIA GB300 chips and pay $150 million monthly starting in July 2026 (if fully executed, totaling about $6.3 billion). Additionally, bankers are pushing for SpaceX's first issuance of investment-grade bonds, with terms covering 5-30 years, aimed at providing long-term financing for AI infrastructure expansion. Market Interpretation: Investors are taking profits on overvalued pure AI/space theme stocks, coupled with the overall technology sector's divergence and the risk appetite switch brought about by geopolitical easing. Some institutions believe that SpaceX, as a non-traditional publicly listed company, has fully priced in its high growth expectations, and the short-term valuation pullback aligns with profit-taking logic, but the AI computing power agreement and bond financing plan show that the company is accelerating the deep binding of space technology and AI infrastructure, maintaining long-term resilience in its narrative. Investment Insight: Short-term volatility has significantly increased, and it is recommended to closely track the progress of the bond issuance roadshow and milestones for AI computing power deployment; for long-term investors, this pullback may provide a window to observe capital expenditure efficiency and execution, but caution is needed regarding the sustained pressure of high-leverage valuations in a macro tightening environment.

2. Alphabet (GOOG.US) - AI Talent Movement Event Overview: John Jumper, a core scientist at Google's DeepMind and a 2024 Nobel Prize winner in Chemistry, announced last Friday via the X platform that he would leave Google after nine years to join competitor Anthropic. He led the development of the AlphaFold tool, which has predicted over 200 million protein structures, profoundly changing the paradigm of global biomedical research, benefiting over 2 million scientists in more than 190 countries. This event is seen as a landmark case in the U.S. AI talent competition entering a new phase. Market Interpretation: Institutions are generally concerned about the potential negative impact of top talent loss on Google's long-term competitiveness in AI, especially against the backdrop of competitors like OpenAI and Anthropic accelerating their pursuits. DeepMind was once the crown jewel of Google's AI, and this departure has intensified discussions in the market about the difficulty of retaining talent at large firms and the decline of innovative vitality, causing GOOG's stock price to drop over 5% at one point during trading. However, Google simultaneously announced collaborations with AI companies like 24A and continued investments, indicating that it is hedging against talent risks through ecological layout. Investment Insight: Talent dynamics will become an important catalyst for valuation divergence among tech giants, and it is recommended that investors compare each company's R&D retention rates and patent outputs; for Alphabet, if it can quickly fill gaps or strengthen open-source/collaboration strategies after short-term pressure, it may regain market confidence.

3. Micron Technology (MU) - Stock Price Breakthrough Event Overview: Micron Technology (MU) stock price first broke above the $1,200 mark, with a single-day increase of over 6%, becoming a highlight in the semiconductor sector. Previously, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) had repeatedly refreshed historical highs, with significant gains recorded by Intel, SanDisk, and others in the sector, reflecting the sustained high demand for AI-driven high-performance memory and storage. Market Interpretation: The explosive demand for HBM (high-bandwidth memory) and advanced DRAM/NAND from AI data centers is the core engine driving Micron's performance and valuation increase. Institutional views suggest that in the wave of trillion-dollar AI capital expenditures from global tech giants, memory bottlenecks are becoming one of the constraints, with Micron benefiting directly as a key supplier. Investors like Rick Rule also point out that the physical world support for AI (such as copper and chip materials) is underestimated by the market, further reinforcing structural opportunities in the semiconductor downstream. However, technical analysts like BTIG warn that the extreme strength of the sector is approaching historical bubble levels, and the risk of a pullback should not be ignored. Investment Insight: Pay attention to the synchronization of the AI capital expenditure cycle and Micron's capacity expansion, with valuations needing to match actual revenue growth rather than being driven solely by sentiment; in the medium term, if geopolitical easing reduces supply chain risks, the stock is expected to maintain structural strength, but profit-taking discipline should be established to cope with technical cooling.

4. Semtech (SMTC) - Benefiting from AI Edge Computing Event Overview: Semtech, as a supplier of analog and mixed-signal semiconductors, has performed well in AI-related applications, with its stock price rising alongside the overall sector. The company's products are widely used in edge computing, data center interconnects, and IoT scenarios, benefiting from the trend of AI infrastructure expanding from the cloud to the edge. Market Interpretation: As AI model deployment evolves from centralized data centers to real-time edge inference, the demand for Semtech's signal chain solutions has significantly increased. Institutions believe that its expertise in low-power, high-performance analog chips makes it an indispensable part of the AI ecosystem, especially in the current context of the semiconductor sector reaching new highs and attracting capital attention. However, overall valuation pressure in the sector also transmits to small and mid-cap stocks, and caution is needed regarding amplified volatility. Investment Insight: Suitable for investors focusing on the penetration of AI themes from core computing power to peripheral infrastructure; it is recommended to track the company's quarterly order guidance and gross margin improvement to assess growth sustainability.

5. Coherent (COHR) - Highlights in Optical Communication and Laser Technology Event Overview: Coherent occupies an important position in data center optical modules and high-power lasers, with its stock price performing positively amid the semiconductor/AI infrastructure boom. The company's products directly serve the demands for high-speed optical interconnects and advanced manufacturing. Market Interpretation: The surge in demand for ultra-high bandwidth and low-latency optical communication for AI training and inference has significantly benefited Coherent as a key supplier. Market consensus indicates that the data center upgrade cycle, combined with the trend of optoelectronic integration, provides medium- to long-term growth support; at the same time, the strong sector has led to noticeable stock divergence, with execution-capable optoelectronic companies receiving premiums. However, geopolitical supply chain risks and the macro interest rate environment remain potential constraints. Investment Insight: In the ongoing environment of AI capital expenditure, the company has structural opportunities; investors can focus on optical module shipment volumes and new customer expansion as leading indicators, balancing allocations to diversify sector systemic risks.

IV. Project & Market Dynamics

1. Trump signed two executive orders to accelerate the development of advanced quantum computers.

2. 21Shares co-founder: Tokenized speculation is ahead of Wall Street's actual readiness.

3. Strive's Chief Risk Officer Jeff Walton stated that digital credit products related to the Bitcoin ecosystem (STRC and SATA) faced significant sell-offs last week but have partially rebounded; this volatility is attributed to leverage liquidation and heavy selling pressure, rather than a deterioration in underlying credit quality.

4. The U.S. Senate passed a housing bill with a vote of 85 to 5, which includes a four-year ban on Federal Reserve central bank digital currency. This ban will last until the end of 2030, prohibiting the Federal Reserve system or its member banks from issuing or creating central bank digital currencies or any digital assets substantially similar.

5. SpaceX (SPCX.O) signed a computing power agreement with U.S. AI startup Reflection, with a transaction amount of up to $6.3 billion.

6. Alphabet's Google will invest approximately $75 million in independent film company A24 and establish a new AI research collaboration. Recent films produced by A24 include "Backrooms" and "Marty Supreme."

7. Micron Technology (MU.O) reached a memory and storage supply agreement with Anthropic to drive the next generation of AI scaling.

8. According to regulatory filings, Strategy issued 2.7148 million shares of MSTR stock in the past week (from June 15 to 21), raising approximately $335.5 million to purchase 520 Bitcoins, with a total cost of about $34.9 million and an average purchase price of approximately $67,100 per coin. As of June 21, the company holds approximately 847,363 Bitcoins, with a total purchase cost of about $64.1 billion and an average purchase price of approximately $75,700 per coin. At the same time, the company added approximately $300 million to its dollar reserves, bringing the total to about $1.4 billion.

V. Today's Market Calendar

June 23 (Tuesday)

1. U.S. Economic Data: S&P Global Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI (focus on economic activity resilience).
2. U.S. Earnings Reports: FedEx (FDX), Carnival (CCL), KB Home (KBH), etc. (logistics, consumer sectors).

June 24 (Wednesday)

1. U.S. Economic Data: May New Home Sales, Leading Indicators, etc.
2. U.S. Earnings Reports: Micron Technology (MU) to release significant results after hours (leading storage chip company, key verification of AI server HBM demand); Trip.com Group (TCOM), etc. ★★★★
3. Other Highlights: NVIDIA (NVDA) Shareholder Meeting (9:00 AM Pacific Time, focusing on Blackwell and Vera architecture capacity ramp-up, AI infrastructure outlook).

June 25 (Thursday)

1. U.S. Economic Data: May PCE Price Index (the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, core PCE expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month); Q1 GDP final value (expected to remain at 1.6%); Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, etc. (data-intensive day). ★★★★
2. U.S. Earnings Reports: Blackberry (BB) earnings report before market opens.

June 26 (Friday)

1. U.S. Economic Data: University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final value; Federal Reserve officials' speeches (Williams, Kashkari, etc.).

Core Focus of U.S. Stocks This Week:
"AI Validation + Inflation Data Week" Micron's earnings report will test the strength of AI memory/HBM demand and Blackwell's supply situation, NVIDIA's shareholder meeting will provide guidance on capacity and roadmap, and PCE inflation data will directly impact Warsh's post-Federal Reserve policy expectations (hot data may strengthen hawkish signals and delay rate cuts). Coupled with SpaceX (SPCX) performance post-IPO, AI, tech infrastructure, and macro sentiment will dominate the market.

Institutional Views: Renowned investment bank analysts believe that the 60-day sanctions exemption for the U.S.-Iran situation brings supply relief expectations to the oil market, pushing hedge fund short positions to high levels, but low strategic petroleum reserves and negotiation uncertainties still support oil price volatility. Although the tech sector faces talent movement and valuation pressures (such as SpaceX pullback, GOOGL adjustment), the demand for AI infrastructure and semiconductor innovation at new highs shows long-term resilience. Institutions like RBC maintain the view that U.S. stocks can withstand moderate rate hikes, with the S&P 500 rebounding 18% from its lows reflecting resilience. The cryptocurrency market is oscillating upwards under the support of ETF inflows and major holders increasing positions, but leverage liquidation risks suggest caution in the short term. Overall, geopolitical easing and the Federal Reserve's path are key variables, and investors should focus on data validation and differentiation opportunities.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice. Data in the text may inevitably contain deviations; please refer to real-time market data.