2022

CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin's recent trend is similar to the bear market rebound phase in March 2022, with market demand still weak and sentiment indicators having fallen back into the "extremely pessimistic" range.The report pointed out that Bitcoin's recent rebound was blocked near the 200-day moving average at around $82,400, and then it fell back to around $76,000. CryptoQuant believes this trend is similar to that in March 2022: at that time, Bitcoin rebounded 43% from its low but also encountered resistance at the 200-day moving average and re-entered a downward trend.Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, stated that during a bear market, the 200-day moving average is usually a key dividing line between "rebound markets" and "trend continuation." If Bitcoin cannot effectively break through this moving average, it may indicate that the bear market structure has not yet been broken.

According to Cointelegraph, the latest report from the Federal Reserve shows that 10% of Americans will use or invest in cryptocurrencies by 2025, the highest level since 2022.

Analyst Murphy stated that new addresses buying Bitcoin for the first time (First Buyers, FB) are providing fresh blood to the market while absorbing excess distribution. As of May 13, the Bitcoin holdings of first-time buyer addresses have returned to 3.719 million, an increase of 40,000 BTC compared to May 1. The continuous accumulation by new buyers reflects a gradual recovery in investor risk appetite. In comparison to the last cycle, the current 3.72 million is comparable to September 21, 2022. Once the holdings of new buyers exceed 4 million, the overall market structure will become healthier, making it unlikely to experience significant declines or fall below previous lows.

Crypto analyst Murphy posted on the X platform that the holdings of new Bitcoin buyers have been steadily increasing recently, rising from a low of 3.38 million to 3.68 million.Although there is still a distance of over 1 million from the peak of the bull market, it at least indicates that as the macro environment improves, investors' risk appetite is gradually returning. Compared to the last cycle, this is roughly equivalent to the scale of new buyers in mid-August 2022. At that time, it was also in the latter half of a bear market. BTC rebounded from a low of $19,000 to $24,000 (a 26% rebound); this time, BTC rebounded from $62,000 to $79,000 (a 27% rebound); the situation is similar.However, the difference is that to hold the same amount of BTC, the money spent is 3-4 times that of the past, yet it still cannot stop so many strong new buyers from entering the market.

According to CertiK Alert monitoring, the total losses from cryptocurrency security incidents in the month of 2026 amounted to approximately $651 million, of which about $3.5 million originated from phishing attacks. This is the highest single-month loss recorded since 2022, second only to the Bybit theft incident in 2025.

The research institution 10x Research published on platform X, pointing out that the trading volume in the cryptocurrency market has reached a new low since 2022. Currently, the total market capitalization of the crypto market is $2.3 trillion, down 1.7% from last week, with an average weekly trading volume of $90 billion, a decrease of 7% from the average.Among them, Bitcoin's weekly trading volume is $38.2 billion, which is 5% lower than the average; Ethereum's weekly trading volume is $18.3 billion, which is 18% lower than the average. The Ethereum network fee (0.12 Gwei) is at a level of 17%, indicating low network utilization.In addition, the Bitcoin funding rate rose 4.1% this week to 1.5%, at a level of 13% over the past 12 months, with open interest in futures increasing by $100 million to $21.5 billion. The Ethereum funding rate rose 3.7% this week to 2.8%, at a level of 12% over the past 12 months, with open interest in futures increasing by $100 million to $11.8 billion.

Distributed Capital partner Shen Bo posted on X detailing the complete list and addresses of his stolen assets in 2022. He revealed that the theft occurred on November 10, 2022, Eastern Time, between 00:46 and 01:02. The Trust Wallet hot wallet installed on his iPhone 12 Pro Max was stolen, with assets valued at approximately 42 million dollars.The address details are: ETH: 0x6be85603322df6DC66163eF5f82A9c6ffBC5e894 BTC: 1ECNeZyiHgqJmv42i3pkWY48xiXy7KukTG / bc1qg3mnvn8saea50js7nzkhm8k054mpwqmcuq3de5 TRON: TJLBmmUb5TcFFXTLzuuaKU96uTg5Sjn1yD26. On that day, Shen Bo set a bounty to recover approximately 42 million dollars worth of cryptocurrency stolen three years ago.

According to Gate market data, the euro against the US dollar (EUR/USD) has fallen 2.1% since last Friday, on track to record the largest two-day decline since September 2022.

Bitcoin fell over 19% in February, marking its worst monthly performance since 2022, due to concerns related to global tariffs.

According to data from Artemis Analytics, the circulating market value of the world's largest stablecoin Tether's USDT has decreased by approximately $1.5 billion this month, marking the largest monthly decline since the collapse of the FTX exchange in December 2022.Previously, USDT had shown a continuous growth trend since former U.S. President Trump returned to the White House. This decline also follows a slight retreat in January.

According to CoinDesk, Santiment data shows that XRP has just recorded its largest realized loss since November 2022, with a weekly realized loss of $1.93 billion, indicating a panic sell-off among holders.Note: Realized loss refers to the loss that investors confirm and lock in when selling an asset at a price lower than their purchase cost; in contrast, unrealized loss is merely a paper loss and is not counted until the asset is sold. A significant increase in realized loss in on-chain data typically indicates that a large number of holders are choosing to sell while at a loss, reflecting a concentrated stop-loss or "capitulation sell-off" in the market, often accompanied by a significant weakening of sentiment.

According to market news, research and brokerage firm K33 stated that the current Bitcoin market structure, derivative positions, and ETF fund flows are highly similar to the late stages of the 2022 bear market, indicating a potential long-term consolidation rather than a rapid rebound.K33's research director Vetle Lunde noted that their proprietary indicators show a "striking similarity" between the current situation and September and November 2022 (close to the bear market bottom). However, historical experience suggests that market bottoms are often accompanied by prolonged consolidation, with an average 90-day return of only about 3% in similar environments. Data shows that Bitcoin has dropped nearly 28% since January, with the funding rate being negative for 11 consecutive days, and open interest falling below 260,000 BTC, as long positions are being liquidated.Spot trading volume decreased by 59% week-over-week, and futures open interest has fallen to a four-month low. On the institutional side, CME traders are relatively inactive, with Bitcoin ETP holdings decreasing by 103,113 BTC from last October's peak, but 93% of peak exposure remains, indicating that institutions are primarily reducing exposure rather than completely exiting.The Fear and Greed Index recently hit a historical low of 5, but Lunde pointed out that the average 90-day return from buying during extreme fear periods is only 2.4%, far lower than the 95% during extreme greed periods, suggesting that fear does not reliably predict a strong rebound. He expects Bitcoin to consolidate in the range of $60,000 to $75,000 for an extended period, noting that the current entry point is attractive but requires patience.

According to Cointelegraph, Glassnode analysts stated that Bitcoin whales are accumulating during the pullback, with the average outflow on exchanges reaching 3.2% on the 30th, similar to the pattern observed before the bull market began in the first half of 2022.

According to CryptoQuant analyst CW8900, Bitcoin whales have been accumulating BTC in large quantities during the recent price drop. Data shows that on February 6, 66,940 Bitcoins flowed into accumulation addresses, marking the largest single-day inflow since 2022.Meanwhile, new large investors are also taking the opportunity to increase their purchases, withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges to personal wallets.

CryptoQuant released a report indicating that on-chain data signals show the current market downturn is deepening, performing worse than the early stages of the 2022 bear market, with BTC prices potentially dropping towards $60,000.The next major support zone for BTC is between $60,000 and $70,000, and there is widespread structural weakness in the crypto market. Institutional demand has sharply reversed, with U.S. spot BTC exchange-traded funds shifting from net buying last year to net selling, while retail participation remains sluggish, with Coinbase premiums consistently negative since mid-October. Liquidity conditions are also tightening.Additionally, long-term demand growth has significantly collapsed, with annual spot demand for BTC dropping from 1.1 million BTC to 77,000 BTC over the past four months, a decline of 93%.

Glassnode posted on platform X that the actual losses of Bitcoin after entity adjustments (7-day moving average) have reached $889 million per day, the highest daily realized loss since November 2022.

"Big Short" Michael Burry stated that the current decline in Bitcoin resembles the bear market phase of 2022, sparking discussions about the depth of this adjustment.Burry posted a chart on the X platform comparing the drop of BTC from around $126,000 to about $70,000 with the early decline of the 2021-2022 bear market. In the previous cycle, Bitcoin fell from around $35,000 to below $20,000 before gradually stabilizing. If calculated based on a similar percentage drop, some market participants believe the theoretical risk range could point to around $50,000, although Michael Burry did not provide a specific target price.The market has also questioned the validity of single historical cycle comparisons, with trading institutions noting that forming a "pattern" based solely on one historical event has limited reference value. The current market environment differs significantly from that of 2021-2022, including institutional liquidity brought by spot Bitcoin ETFs, changes in market leverage structure, and a macro environment shifting from an aggressive rate hike cycle to one dominated by cross-asset volatility.

According to market news, CryptoQuant's weekly report shows that the Bitcoin market has entered a bear market phase.Here are the main analysis points:On-chain indicators show bear market signals: Bitcoin's price reached a peak of $126,000 in early October 2025, at which time the bull market score index was 80 (bullish). However, after the liquidation event on October 10, the index turned bearish and has now dropped to zero, with the current Bitcoin price hovering around $75,000, indicating a weak market structure.Institutional demand has significantly decreased: In 2025, the U.S. spot ETF purchased 46,000 BTC, while in 2026, it net sold 10,600 BTC, resulting in a demand gap of 56,000 BTC compared to last year, continuously exerting selling pressure.U.S. spot demand is sluggish: Despite the price drop, the Coinbase premium has remained negative since mid-October 2025, indicating low participation from U.S. investors. This contrasts sharply with previous bull markets driven by U.S. demand.Liquidity conditions are tightening: The market capitalization growth of USDT has turned negative for the first time in the past 60 days (-$133 million), marking the first contraction since October 2023. The expansion of stablecoins peaked at $15.9 billion at the end of October 2025, and the current decline aligns with the characteristics of bear market liquidity contraction. Additionally, the growth of explicit spot demand has plummeted by 93% over the past year, from 1.1 million BTC to 77,000 BTC.Technical structure shows downside risk: Bitcoin's price has fallen below the 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022, declining 23% over 83 days, performing weaker than the bear market in early 2022. The loss of key on-chain support levels indicates that Bitcoin may further dip into the $60,000 to $70,000 range.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on social media, "Seeing some panic among Bitcoin holders (and the schadenfreude from bears) seems quite shortsighted to me. Since 2022, Bitcoin is up 429%, gold is up 177%, silver is up 350%, and QQQ is up 140%. In other words, Bitcoin's performance in 2023 and 2024 has left other assets far behind (but many seem to have forgotten this). Even if other assets later have 'the best year ever,' and Bitcoin is in a slump, they still haven't caught up to Bitcoin's performance. In my view, what is really happening is that the narrative of 'institutionalization' has been priced in by the market too early and too quickly, and this pricing was completed before it actually materialized. Therefore, Bitcoin needs a period of consolidation for reality to catch up with the previous price increases."

According to Jinshi News, the US Dollar Index DXY fell by 1% during the day, breaking below the 96 mark, reaching a new low since February 2022.