2022

According to market news, research and brokerage firm K33 stated that the current Bitcoin market structure, derivative positions, and ETF fund flows are highly similar to the late stages of the 2022 bear market, indicating a potential long-term consolidation rather than a rapid rebound.K33's research director Vetle Lunde noted that their proprietary indicators show a "striking similarity" between the current situation and September and November 2022 (close to the bear market bottom). However, historical experience suggests that market bottoms are often accompanied by prolonged consolidation, with an average 90-day return of only about 3% in similar environments. Data shows that Bitcoin has dropped nearly 28% since January, with the funding rate being negative for 11 consecutive days, and open interest falling below 260,000 BTC, as long positions are being liquidated.Spot trading volume decreased by 59% week-over-week, and futures open interest has fallen to a four-month low. On the institutional side, CME traders are relatively inactive, with Bitcoin ETP holdings decreasing by 103,113 BTC from last October's peak, but 93% of peak exposure remains, indicating that institutions are primarily reducing exposure rather than completely exiting.The Fear and Greed Index recently hit a historical low of 5, but Lunde pointed out that the average 90-day return from buying during extreme fear periods is only 2.4%, far lower than the 95% during extreme greed periods, suggesting that fear does not reliably predict a strong rebound. He expects Bitcoin to consolidate in the range of $60,000 to $75,000 for an extended period, noting that the current entry point is attractive but requires patience.

According to Cointelegraph, Glassnode analysts stated that Bitcoin whales are accumulating during the pullback, with the average outflow on exchanges reaching 3.2% on the 30th, similar to the pattern observed before the bull market began in the first half of 2022.

According to CryptoQuant analyst CW8900, Bitcoin whales have been accumulating BTC in large quantities during the recent price drop. Data shows that on February 6, 66,940 Bitcoins flowed into accumulation addresses, marking the largest single-day inflow since 2022.Meanwhile, new large investors are also taking the opportunity to increase their purchases, withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges to personal wallets.

CryptoQuant released a report indicating that on-chain data signals show the current market downturn is deepening, performing worse than the early stages of the 2022 bear market, with BTC prices potentially dropping towards $60,000.The next major support zone for BTC is between $60,000 and $70,000, and there is widespread structural weakness in the crypto market. Institutional demand has sharply reversed, with U.S. spot BTC exchange-traded funds shifting from net buying last year to net selling, while retail participation remains sluggish, with Coinbase premiums consistently negative since mid-October. Liquidity conditions are also tightening.Additionally, long-term demand growth has significantly collapsed, with annual spot demand for BTC dropping from 1.1 million BTC to 77,000 BTC over the past four months, a decline of 93%.

Glassnode posted on platform X that the actual losses of Bitcoin after entity adjustments (7-day moving average) have reached $889 million per day, the highest daily realized loss since November 2022.

"Big Short" Michael Burry stated that the current decline in Bitcoin resembles the bear market phase of 2022, sparking discussions about the depth of this adjustment.Burry posted a chart on the X platform comparing the drop of BTC from around $126,000 to about $70,000 with the early decline of the 2021-2022 bear market. In the previous cycle, Bitcoin fell from around $35,000 to below $20,000 before gradually stabilizing. If calculated based on a similar percentage drop, some market participants believe the theoretical risk range could point to around $50,000, although Michael Burry did not provide a specific target price.The market has also questioned the validity of single historical cycle comparisons, with trading institutions noting that forming a "pattern" based solely on one historical event has limited reference value. The current market environment differs significantly from that of 2021-2022, including institutional liquidity brought by spot Bitcoin ETFs, changes in market leverage structure, and a macro environment shifting from an aggressive rate hike cycle to one dominated by cross-asset volatility.

According to market news, CryptoQuant's weekly report shows that the Bitcoin market has entered a bear market phase.Here are the main analysis points:On-chain indicators show bear market signals: Bitcoin's price reached a peak of $126,000 in early October 2025, at which time the bull market score index was 80 (bullish). However, after the liquidation event on October 10, the index turned bearish and has now dropped to zero, with the current Bitcoin price hovering around $75,000, indicating a weak market structure.Institutional demand has significantly decreased: In 2025, the U.S. spot ETF purchased 46,000 BTC, while in 2026, it net sold 10,600 BTC, resulting in a demand gap of 56,000 BTC compared to last year, continuously exerting selling pressure.U.S. spot demand is sluggish: Despite the price drop, the Coinbase premium has remained negative since mid-October 2025, indicating low participation from U.S. investors. This contrasts sharply with previous bull markets driven by U.S. demand.Liquidity conditions are tightening: The market capitalization growth of USDT has turned negative for the first time in the past 60 days (-$133 million), marking the first contraction since October 2023. The expansion of stablecoins peaked at $15.9 billion at the end of October 2025, and the current decline aligns with the characteristics of bear market liquidity contraction. Additionally, the growth of explicit spot demand has plummeted by 93% over the past year, from 1.1 million BTC to 77,000 BTC.Technical structure shows downside risk: Bitcoin's price has fallen below the 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022, declining 23% over 83 days, performing weaker than the bear market in early 2022. The loss of key on-chain support levels indicates that Bitcoin may further dip into the $60,000 to $70,000 range.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on social media, "Seeing some panic among Bitcoin holders (and the schadenfreude from bears) seems quite shortsighted to me. Since 2022, Bitcoin is up 429%, gold is up 177%, silver is up 350%, and QQQ is up 140%. In other words, Bitcoin's performance in 2023 and 2024 has left other assets far behind (but many seem to have forgotten this). Even if other assets later have 'the best year ever,' and Bitcoin is in a slump, they still haven't caught up to Bitcoin's performance. In my view, what is really happening is that the narrative of 'institutionalization' has been priced in by the market too early and too quickly, and this pricing was completed before it actually materialized. Therefore, Bitcoin needs a period of consolidation for reality to catch up with the previous price increases."

According to Jinshi News, the US Dollar Index DXY fell by 1% during the day, breaking below the 96 mark, reaching a new low since February 2022.

According to Jinshi reports, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has hit its weakest level since March 2022.

Currently, the exchange rate of Bitcoin to silver is approximately 780. This level is already below the peak of 20,000 reached by Bitcoin in 2017, and it is close to the level in November 2022, when the ratio dropped to about 700, with Bitcoin also bottoming around 15,500.The convergence of this ratio again suggests that silver may be entering a more vulnerable phase relative to Bitcoin. Historically, the peak phases of silver often occur at the beginning of each year, mostly in the first half of the year. This historical pattern poses a potential risk signal for the current price trend of silver. If history repeats itself, silver may have already reached the high point of this cycle, and it is even possible that it has already peaked.

According to data disclosed by CryptoOnchain, the internal trading volume on Bitcoin trading platforms has fallen to its lowest level, totaling around 14,000 BTC. The continuous decline indicates a significant reduction in internal Bitcoin trading volume on trading platforms, weakening market-making capacity and compressing liquidity.On the Binance platform, traffic hovers around a historical low of approximately 2,700 BTC. The reduction in internal liquidity has led to a higher position ratio, fewer arbitrage opportunities, and a thinner order book, increasing the market's sensitivity to shocks. Historically, once market activity resumes, there tends to be severe directional volatility.

Suspected "1011 Insider Whale" Garrett Jin posted on the X platform, stating that comparing the current Bitcoin market to that of 2022 is highly unprofessional. He believes that there are essential differences between the two from the perspectives of long-term price structure, macro background, investor composition, and chip distribution. He pointed out that the current macro environment is completely opposite to the high inflation and interest rate hike cycle of 2022: the situation in Ukraine is easing, CPI and risk-free interest rates are declining, and especially the AI technology revolution is likely to drive the economy into a long-term deflationary cycle. Interest rates have entered a phase of reduction, and central bank liquidity is returning to the financial system, which defines the risk appetite behavior of capital.Since 2020, Bitcoin has shown a significant negative correlation with CPI, and under the AI-driven technological revolution, long-term deflation is a high-probability outcome. Technically, 2021-2022 was a weekly M-top structure, while 2025 is a breakout of the upward channel, which is more likely to be a "bear market trap" before a rebound. He noted that to replicate the bear market of 2022, it is necessary to simultaneously meet stringent conditions such as the re-emergence of inflation shocks, the central bank restarting interest rate hikes or quantitative tightening, and a decisive price drop below $80,850. It is too early to be bearish before these conditions are met.In terms of investor structure, 2020-2022 was a high-leverage speculative market dominated by retail investors, while since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in 2023, structural long-term holders have entered the market, effectively locking in supply and significantly reducing trading speed and volatility. Bitcoin has shifted from a historical volatility range of 80-150% to a range of 30-60%, becoming a distinctly different asset. The current market has entered a more mature institutional era, characterized by stable underlying demand, locked supply, and institutional-level volatility.

According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency trading platform BitMEX pointed out in its latest report that the crash has impacted market makers, forcing them to hold large amounts of cryptocurrency. This crash resulted in approximately $20 billion in cascading liquidations, severely damaging the neutral strategies of market makers and causing market liquidity to drop to its lowest level since 2022.BitMEX stated that when the ADL (Auto Deleveraging) mechanism is triggered and market makers are forced to liquidate their short positions used for hedging, these institutions are compelled to hold unhedged spot positions in the face of a rapid market decline. This situation undermined the commitment to neutral strategies in perpetual contracts, leading market makers to withdraw liquidity globally in the fourth quarter of 2025, thus reducing order book liquidity to its lowest level since 2022.As a large number of followers entered the market, the Delta neutral easy profits relying on funding rate arbitrage significantly shrank, with annualized returns dropping below 4%. Meanwhile, platforms operating under the B-book model reaped considerable profits, the DeFi perpetual contract market remained susceptible to manipulation, while the traditional financial perpetual contract market experienced explosive growth.

An address (0x44e...33B1D) withdrew 99.9 WBTC from Binance, worth 8.68 million dollars. This address has re-entered a position in WBTC after two years, currently holding a total of 173.5 WBTC, with an average holding price of 62,703 dollars, resulting in an unrealized profit of 4.232 million dollars. The address has now deposited WBTC as collateral into Aave and borrowed 2 million USDC to recharge into Binance.

The cryptocurrency market research institution Delphi Digital stated on social media that the Federal Reserve's interest rate path for next year is the clearest it has been in years. A rate cut of 25 basis points is expected in December 2025, bringing the federal funds rate down to around 3.5%-3.75%. The forward curve predicts at least three more rate cuts in 2026, and if the path remains unchanged, the year-end rate will drop to around the lower end of 3%.However, rate cuts are only part of the picture. Quantitative tightening (QT) ended on December 1. The Treasury General Account (TGA) is planned to gradually decrease rather than replenish. Overnight reverse repos (RRP) have been completely exhausted. These factors together have created the first positive net liquidity environment since early 2022.The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) and the federal funds rate have fallen back to the high range of 3%. Real interest rates have also retreated from their peaks in 2023-2024. However, there has not been a collapse; this is a controlled slowdown rather than a policy U-turn.2026 will be a year when policy shifts from resistance to moderate support. This environment is favorable for long-duration assets, large-cap stocks, gold, and digital assets supported by structural demand.

According to Cointelegraph, economic analyst Timothy Peterson posted on the X platform that the current Bitcoin trend is highly similar to the bear market of 2022. From the daily and monthly perspectives, the correlation of Bitcoin's daily performance this year with that of 2022 is 80%, while the monthly correlation is as high as 98%. If history repeats itself, the true recovery of Bitcoin's price may not occur until the first quarter of next year.In the past month’s decline, cryptocurrencies have been impacted significantly more than stocks, but signs of a rebound are rapidly increasing. Changes in macro sentiment could still trigger the classic "Christmas rally" for risk assets before the end of the year.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), smart money that built a position in WBTC at the bottom of $16,933 at the end of 2022 is still continuing to sell. Since yesterday, a total of 176.17 WBTC (approximately $15.799 million) has been sold, with an average selling price of $89,679, realizing a profit of $12.815 million.Currently, there are still 280.479 WBTC remaining on-chain, worth $25.73 million.