2030

According to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated today that a central bank digital currency (CBDC) will not be launched during the Trump administration. However, the House of Representatives has passed the "ROAD to Housing Act," which only includes a temporary ban on the Federal Reserve issuing a CBDC, set to expire in December 2030. The bill has not yet passed in the Senate.Senate Republican leader Thune stated that pushing for a permanent ban may face resistance from Democrats. Some House Republicans believe that the expiration of the ban may reopen the space for the Federal Reserve to explore a CBDC. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that as long as he has the authority to stop it, he will not allow the Fed to advance a CBDC.

According to Decrypt, analysts at Standard Chartered Bank pointed out in a report on Thursday that the current price of Ethereum does not reflect the growth in its on-chain transaction volume, nor does it reflect the value of digital assets deposited in DeFi applications. The price of Ethereum has "significant room" to catch up with its internal metrics, as its native network is expected to benefit from Wall Street's steady migration to digital assets.Ethereum has dominated the stablecoin and tokenization markets, which are set to experience rapid growth. Analysts reiterated a year-end target price of $4,000 for Ethereum, predicting it could reach $40,000 by 2030. This would bring the price ratio of Ethereum to Bitcoin back up to 0.08. Standard Chartered stated that year-to-date, stablecoins have accounted for 33% of Ethereum transactions.The "Economic Zone" supported by the Ethereum Foundation will launch this summer, further enhancing on-chain activity. As real-world assets go on-chain, if RWAs grow as expected by 50 times, the importance of Ethereum will increase dramatically, with transaction volume and total locked value continuously setting new historical highs.

According to The Block, Standard Chartered Bank believes that the recent sharp decline in ETH prices does not reflect the continuous improvement of internal indicators on the Ethereum network, comparing it to Amazon's phase after the tech bubble burst in 2001. The bank maintains its ETH price targets: $4,000 by the end of 2026 and $40,000 by the end of 2030, and expects the ETH/BTC exchange rate to rebound to about 0.08 by the end of this decade.The bank stated that Ethereum dominates the stablecoin and RWA (real-world asset tokenization) sectors, expecting the market value of both stablecoins and non-stablecoin RWAs to increase to about $2 trillion by 2028, which will drive Ethereum's trading volume and TVL to new highs, pushing ETH prices upward.

Morgan Stanley pointed out that by 2030, the global semiconductor industry market size could reach $1.5 trillion, with AI-related semiconductor products contributing a significant share. The capital expenditure of major cloud service providers remains strong.Morgan Stanley's cloud capital expenditure tracker estimates that by 2026, cloud capital expenditure will approach $811 billion. Research suggests that agent-based artificial intelligence has generated a growing opportunity for CPU applications. As AI shifts from reasoning to execution, GPU computing intensity increases. The agency has raised the total addressable market (TAM) for orchestration CPU in the baseline scenario to $79 billion, with the market added value (TAM) forecast for CPU orchestration technology reaching $238 billion.

According to Bloomberg, citing informed sources, Polymarket has appointed representatives in Japan and is preparing to lobby relevant departments for the legalization of prediction markets in the country.The sources stated that they requested anonymity because the related plans have not yet been made public. Polymarket aims to obtain approval from the Japanese government before 2030. The sources said that Polymarket believes Japan is a market opportunity that has not yet been fully developed and has great potential.

According to Cryptonomist, Standard Chartered announced a large-scale restructuring plan on Tuesday, aiming to cut more than 7,000 jobs by 2030, which accounts for 15% of the total workforce in the company's functional departments.Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters described the layoffs as a technology-driven long-term transformation, focusing on replacing low-value-added jobs with automation and artificial intelligence, rather than merely reducing costs. The report states that the plan primarily affects back-office support departments in locations such as Chennai and Bangalore in India, Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia, and Poland.

Galaxy Research Research Director Alex Thorn published a post disclosing that Galaxy Research released a latest report rebutting the banking industry's assertion that the GENIUS Act will impact U.S. bank deposits, and provided quantitative estimates.The core findings of the report are as follows: Under the framework of the GENIUS Act, 60% to 70% of the incremental stablecoins will come from overseas, with the inflow of overseas deposits being about twice the amount of domestic deposit migration, indicating a net increase overall rather than a transfer of existing stock; each newly minted GENIUS stablecoin can generate approximately 32 cents of net credit for the U.S. economy; by 2030, under the baseline scenario, the total scale of credit expansion is about $400 billion, and in an optimistic scenario, it could reach $1.2 trillion.In addition, the short-end yield on U.S. Treasuries (T-bills) will be compressed by 3 to 5 basis points, potentially saving taxpayers up to $3 billion in borrowing costs each year. The report also points out that the interest pass-through mechanism does not pose a survival threat to the U.S. banking industry; it is merely a redistribution of profit margins and will not reduce overall credit capacity.

According to The Block, the crypto anti-quantum computing solution Project Eleven released a report warning that the critical point for quantum computers to crack modern encryption, known as "Q-Day," could arrive as early as 2030, with a probability of over 50% by 2033. The report predicts that advancements in quantum computing will be explosive rather than linear, and the combined effects of hardware and algorithms could lead to a leap in capabilities that is "either completely silent or suddenly explosive."Last month, researchers used quantum hardware to derive a 15-digit elliptic curve key. Although this is still far from cracking the 256-bit encryption used by Bitcoin, it constitutes a preliminary validation. Project Eleven estimates that approximately 6.9 million Bitcoins may face quantum risks under specific conditions.

According to The Block, quantum security startup Project Eleven released a report stating that the "Q-Day," when quantum computers could break modern encryption technology, may arrive as early as 2030, with a probability of occurring before 2033 "likely exceeding 50%." The report warns that the enhancement of quantum computing capabilities will not be a linear progression but rather a leap "from nothing to something, triggered at once." Currently, approximately 6.9 million BTC (worth over $56 billion) are at risk of quantum attacks under certain conditions.In response to the aforementioned threat, several solutions have emerged in the industry: Paradigm researcher Dan Robinson proposed using timestamp proofs to help holders recover assets on future quantum-safe versions of the Bitcoin network; the BIP-361 proposal by Jameson Lopp and others suggests establishing a multi-year migration window to guide users in transferring funds to quantum-resistant addresses. Google has also advanced its quantum-resistant encryption migration target to 2029.

According to Forbes, Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, released a report predicting that the market value of Bitcoin is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of about 63% over the next five years, growing from nearly $2 trillion currently to $16 trillion by 2030.The report states, "Bitcoin is maturing as a leader in a new class of institutional asset." Ark Invest analysts believe that Bitcoin will drive the broader crypto market to reach $28 trillion by 2030 (currently about $2.8 trillion), with "smart contract networks and purely digital currency markets potentially expanding at an annual growth rate of about 61% to $28 trillion by 2030, with Bitcoin accounting for 70% of the market share, while the remainder is dominated by smart contract networks like Ethereum and Solana."

According to Theblock, the analyst team at research and brokerage firm Bernstein predicts that by 2030, the annual trading volume of the prediction market will reach $1 trillion, citing reasons such as regulatory clarity, mainstream distribution partnerships, and structural liquidity advantages compared to the traditional gaming market.It is reported that the trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket has reached a total of $60 billion so far this year, with analysts expecting the trading volume to reach $240 billion by 2026 and maintain an 80% compound annual growth rate by the end of 2030.Sports entertainment contracts currently account for as much as 62% of the trading volume in the prediction market, but analysts predict that this share may slow down to around 31% by the end of 2030, as cryptocurrency, macroeconomic, political, and economic contracts will become larger long-term opportunities. They stated that sports events are just a starting point, not the ultimate goal.

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis stated that the United States should not continue to delay the legislative process of the CLARITY Act, or it may take nearly four years to push for improvements in the regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry again.She posted on social media platform X, saying, "This is our last chance to pass the CLARITY Act before at least 2030," and emphasized that "we cannot let the future of American finance be put at risk." The bill aims to provide a clearer regulatory structure for the cryptocurrency industry, clarifying the responsibilities of regulatory agencies to promote industry innovation and market development. With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, there are concerns that congressional priorities may shift, slowing down the legislative process.Former White House AI and cryptocurrency affairs head David Sacks also expressed support for advancing the bill as soon as possible, stating, "Now is the time for action," and anticipated that the relevant market structure legislation would ultimately be signed into law by the president. In the industry, several individuals, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, have recently called for an expedited legislative process, believing that clear rules will promote innovation and increase market participation. On the regulatory side, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins also expressed support for advancing comprehensive market structure legislation to avoid ongoing regulatory uncertainty affecting industry development.

Market maker Keyrock and tokenization platform Securitize released a joint report on April 9, predicting that the on-chain freely transferable distributed RWA market will grow from the current approximately $29 billion to $400 billion by 2030 under a baseline scenario, an increase of over 1,000%.The broader blockchain-tracked RWA market is expected to reach $5 trillion during the same period. The report covers five major asset classes: government bonds, private credit, equities, commodities, and alternative funds. Among them, RWA perpetual contracts are the fastest-growing on-chain channel, with trading volume increasing 40 times within six months to an average of $67 billion per month, rising from 0.1% to 10.1% of the total on-chain derivatives, and is expected to reach 50% of the total on-chain derivatives by 2028.The report also points out that the yield on tokenized government bonds has been higher than the DeFi benchmark stablecoin lending rate for 64% of the days since mid-2024, reaching 98% in the first quarter of 2026. Currently, tokenized RWA accounts for less than 0.1% of the global $400 trillion tokenizable market.

Morph's latest report on the status of stablecoins indicates that by 2030, stablecoins are expected to account for about 10% of global cross-border payments. The current annual transaction volume of stablecoins has reached $33 trillion, surpassing the combined $25.5 trillion of Visa and Mastercard.The application of stablecoins in the real economy is continuously expanding, with approximately 60% of the capital flow driven by B2B payments, and significant growth in corporate adoption in scenarios such as cash management and procurement. Morph predicts that by 2026, the annual settlement volume of stablecoins may exceed $50 trillion, and by 2027, AI agents are expected to become the main initiators of transactions, with the market size potentially reaching $1.9 trillion by 2030.

According to The Block, after Circle's stock price plummeted due to regulatory concerns, the asset management firm Bitwise stated that its valuation could reach $75 billion by 2030, believing that the market reaction is excessive.Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that the relevant legislation has not changed the fundamental growth logic of the stablecoin market, citing Citigroup's prediction that the stablecoin market size could reach $1.9 trillion by 2030. He pointed out that interest income is not the core driver of stablecoin growth.In addition, institutions such as William Blair believe that although there is still uncertainty in regulatory statements, the value of stablecoins in cross-border B2B payments is evident, and the long-term outlook has not been substantively affected. Some analysts also pointed out that if profit distribution is restricted, it may weaken competitors' ability to attract liquidity through high yields, which would be beneficial for Circle.

The U.S. Senate passed a bipartisan housing bill with 89 votes in favor and 10 against, which includes a provision prohibiting the Federal Reserve from issuing central bank digital currency (CBDC). The ban will last at least until the end of 2030, requiring the Federal Reserve not to issue or create CBDC or similar digital assets directly or through intermediaries such as financial institutions. However, the bill's prospects in the House of Representatives remain uncertain.Some lawmakers have raised objections to the provision in the bill that limits the number of homes large institutional investors can hold, which may lead the House to push for a new version of the bill, thereby affecting its progress. Industry insiders have stated that the relevant provisions reinforce the position of private sector-led digital asset innovation and protect financial privacy.

According to FinanceFeeds, Siddarth Bharwani, Joint Managing Director and Chief Financial Officer of Indian IT vocational training company Jetking Infotrain, stated on February 22 at the "Corporate Bitcoin" event in Las Vegas that the company will firmly advance its Bitcoin-based strategy.Jetking launched its Bitcoin reserve plan at the end of 2024, becoming the first listed company in India to list Bitcoin as a primary reserve asset. It currently holds 21 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $1.4 million, accounting for more than a quarter of the company's total market capitalization. Bharwani stated that this move aims to hedge against the long-term depreciation risk of the Indian Rupee, using Michael Saylor and Strategy as a strategic blueprint. The company's goal is to accumulate 210 Bitcoins by the end of 2026 and expand its holdings to 18,000 Bitcoins by 2030.On the regulatory front, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) recently rejected Jetking's proposal to issue new shares for cryptocurrency investment purposes, citing a lack of a clear framework. However, Bharwani stated that the company is actively responding and views the current resistance as a "regulatory arbitrage opportunity" for early entrants.In addition to balance sheet management, Jetking is also incorporating Bitcoin and blockchain education into its vocational training programs. With over 100 training centers, the company trains 35,000 students annually, aiming to create a "Bitcoin learning ecosystem."Bharwani noted that as the ruling party in India begins discussions on a potential national Bitcoin strategic reserve, Jetking's exploratory practices are expected to provide a reference for the entire Asia-Pacific region.

The panoramic exchange Bitget announced a comprehensive upgrade to its mobile App. It places cryptocurrency (Crypto) alongside traditional finance (TradFi) markets on the homepage, aiming to enhance the cross-asset trading experience. In the new interface, users can easily access crypto products such as contracts, spot trading, on-chain trading, leveraged trading, and wealth management through the trading tab. Additionally, a dedicated TradFi entry has been added, allowing users to access stock perpetual contracts, forex, gold, and RWA tokens with one click using USDT, reducing the overall operational path by about 30% compared to conventional industry processes.Bitget pointed out that the current global annual trading volume of stocks is approximately $100 trillion to $130 trillion, and it is expected to increase to $160 trillion to $200 trillion by 2030. As the circulation of tokenized assets accelerates, exchanges may undertake about 20% to 40% of the related trading volume. Bitget's UEX (Universal Exchange) strategic goal is to become a core liquidity and distribution hub, aiming to handle about 40% of the tokenized stock trading volume by 2030.Bitget CEO Gracy Chen stated that as the regulatory environment matures and the trend of institutional assets moving on-chain strengthens, crypto technology is gradually evolving into the settlement infrastructure for everyday finance. This product experience reconstruction aims to align with this asset migration trend. The upgraded App has been launched globally.

According to a report by The Block, S&P Global Ratings predicts in its latest report that the euro stablecoin market could reach €1.1 trillion (approximately $1.3 trillion) by 2030, which represents a growth of about 1,600 times from €650 million (approximately $767 million) at the end of 2025.In the baseline scenario, S&P expects the market to reach €570 billion (approximately $672 billion) by 2030, equivalent to 2.2% of the total bank deposits in the eurozone. The report attributes the growth mainly to the demand for asset tokenization investments and notes that the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) will come into effect on January 1, 2025, providing issuers with a clear regulatory framework. S&P believes that the application of stablecoins in the real world will support this rapid growth, compared to their current primary use in crypto asset trading.