bernstein

According to The Block, Robinhood's stock price fell on Tuesday after the company reported a year-over-year decline in cryptocurrency business revenue for the fourth quarter. However, analysts from research and brokerage firm Bernstein stated that this weakness reflects a temporary "crypto market tension" and reiterated their target price of $160.Robinhood's total revenue reached an all-time high, but cryptocurrency trading revenue fell 38% year-over-year to $221 million. Bernstein analysts noted that the revenue weakness due to decreased crypto trading activity was "expected" and stated that "there is no need to turn bearish when the stock price is approaching a cyclical low." Despite the "crypto market tension," several business metrics for the company remained "robust" in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Robinhood Banking, launched at the end of 2025, has attracted over 25,000 funded customers, with total account balances exceeding $400 million.Analysts pointed out that Robinhood's prediction market set a new record, accounting for about 14% of trading revenue and 8% of total revenue. The platform traded 8.5 billion contracts in the fourth quarter, far exceeding previous expectations. The report indicated that trading volume at the beginning of 2026 reached $4 billion, while the previously forecasted trading volume for 2026 was $27 billion.

According to The Block, Bernstein's analysts stated that the current decline of Bitcoin reflects a crisis of confidence rather than structural damage, calling it the "weakest bear market" in Bitcoin's history. Additionally, the analysts reiterated their target price of $150,000 for Bitcoin by 2026, citing increased acceptance by institutional investors, improved ETF infrastructure, and better liquidity conditions.

According to The Block, research firm Bernstein analyzed that the stock price of IREN, a Bitcoin mining company transitioning to AI computing services, fell sharply after releasing its financial report. The main reason was market disappointment over the lack of new large AI partnership announcements, rather than a deterioration in fundamentals.The company's stock price dropped about 18% after the earnings report, to approximately $39.79. Bernstein analysts believe that the volatility of Bitcoin-related earnings is no longer the core investment logic for IREN, and investors are more focused on its progress in transitioning to AI cloud infrastructure. Although IREN's Bitcoin mining revenue decreased quarter-over-quarter this quarter, its AI cloud revenue more than doubled compared to the previous quarter. The company has secured approximately $2.3 billion in annual recurring revenue contracts for AI cloud services and expects this to grow to $3.4 billion by the fourth quarter of 2026, equivalent to deploying about 140,000 GPUs.Bernstein maintains an "outperform" rating on IREN with a target price of $125, viewing this decline as a reset of expectations rather than a signal of deteriorating execution capability.

According to TheBlock, Bernstein's analyst team stated in a report to clients that Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) stock price has fallen over 20% year-to-date, down about 40% from its peak of $89.91. This decline is partly attributed to the overall slump in the cryptocurrency market, which currently accounts for about 21% of the company's total revenue.The analysts outlined three bearish scenarios:Assuming Bitcoin price drops to around $60,000 and remains sluggish for the next couple of years, the expected earnings per share in 2027 would be about $3.10, with a potential stock price range of $46 to $61.Assuming Bitcoin price drops to $60,000 but rebounds in the second half of 2026. The expected earnings per share in 2027 would be about $3.50, with a potential stock price range of $70 to $88.In the most pessimistic scenario, trading volumes for cryptocurrencies and stock options would decline by 50% within two years, with the expected earnings per share for the company in 2027 being $2.40, and a potential stock price range of $24 to $36.However, the analysts noted that currently, Robinhood's non-trading revenue accounts for about 43% of total revenue, with a compound annual growth rate of about 29% over the past two years, and its broader business portfolio helps offset the weakness in cryptocurrency trading activity.

According to The Block, investment research firm Bernstein pointed out in its latest report that the crypto market may still be in a short-term bear cycle, but this trend is expected to reverse within 2026. Bitcoin prices may bottom out around the previous cycle's peak (approximately in the $60,000 range) before establishing a higher price base.The institutional cycle has made this round of market structure different from the previous retail-driven boom and bust. The report noted that U.S. policy dynamics could serve as a catalyst, such as the government using seized Bitcoin to establish strategic reserves and changes in Federal Reserve leadership. Additionally, institutional participation remains resilient, with ETF outflows being relatively limited, and there have been no large-scale leveraged liquidations of miners like in previous cycles.Corporate holders (such as Strategy) continue to accumulate during the downturn, and miners are also diversifying their income sources into AI-related data center businesses. Bernstein concluded that the current weakness may be a late-stage correction rather than the beginning of a prolonged winter, and the market reversal in 2026 could open up a "most impactful cycle" for Bitcoin.

Piper Sandler has lowered the target price for Coinbase from $350 to $270, maintaining a "Neutral" rating. Previously, Bernstein also reduced the target price for Coinbase from $510 to $440.Meanwhile, Bank of America Securities has upgraded Coinbase's investment rating from "Neutral" to "Buy," keeping the target price unchanged at $340. The firm noted that although its stock price has fallen about 40% from last July's high, the pace of product development has accelerated beneath the surface of last year's fourth-quarter cryptocurrency adjustments, and the total addressable market has also expanded. They are optimistic about Coinbase's ambition to develop into a "full-service exchange" and its goal of cross-selling more products to existing users.U.S. stock market data shows that Coinbase's stock price is currently around $240, with a total market capitalization of approximately $64.5 billion.

Bernstein, a Wall Street firm, pointed out in its latest analysis report: "Given the recent market adjustments, we believe the Bitcoin cycle has broken the four-year pattern (i.e., peaks occurring every four years) and is currently entering an extended bull market cycle, with more resilient institutional buying funds offsetting any retail panic selling. Although Bitcoin has retraced about 30%, we have observed that the outflow of funds through ETFs is less than 5%.Accordingly, we have adjusted our Bitcoin target price for the end of 2026 to $150,000, and we expect this cycle's peak to potentially reach $200,000 in 2027. Our long-term (up to 2033) target price expectation for Bitcoin remains at approximately $1,000,000."

According to The Block, analysts from research brokerage Bernstein pointed out that the industry "is still waiting for a clear signal that Bitcoin has bottomed," but emphasized that this round of decline is fundamentally different from previous corrections—core crypto operating companies are actively transitioning to new revenue models, and the business fundamentals are "performing strongly."In a report to clients on Monday, analyst Gautam Chhugani's team acknowledged that the weak sentiment has affected crypto-related stocks: Coinbase is down 21% over the past 30 days, Circle is down 37%, and Robinhood is down 12%. However, they noted that most speculative bubbles only exist in the tail-end projects of trend-following strategies and reiterated that "no realistic scenario threatens the long-term viability of the strategy."Bernstein emphasized that the operational performance of the industry stands in stark contrast to market prices, with innovations in business models and favorable regulations reflecting deep resilience. Analysts believe the industry is entering a new phase, with companies beginning to implement strategies previously constrained by regulatory uncertainty, expanding into areas beyond cyclical trading revenue.

According to The Block, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen about 25% since reaching an all-time high of approximately $126,000. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani stated in a report to clients on Monday that this decline reflects investors' anxiety over the historical four-year cycle pattern—this pattern has seen peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021—many investors sold early during the market weakness, believing that 2025 would repeat, thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy to some extent.However, they believe that the current fundamentals are stronger, with data suggesting that this is more likely a "relatively shallow correction," forming a new local bottom rather than the 60% to 70% declines seen in historical cycles—thanks to the significant absorption of supply by long-term holders. Analysis indicates that over the past six months, investors holding Bitcoin for at least a year have sold about 340,000 BTC (approximately $38 billion), while around $34 billion in funds has flowed into spot ETFs and corporate treasuries, largely absorbing these sell-offs.Looking ahead, analysts believe that the market "does not seem to be at a cyclical peak," but rather is part of a multi-year trend defined by institutional participation and moderate cyclical corrections. They are focused on whether Bitcoin can establish a bottom around $80,000—this level emerged after last year's U.S. presidential election—and believe that the current correction may provide an attractive entry opportunity for digital assets and related stocks.

According to a recent report by Wall Street broker Bernstein, as the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory framework gradually takes shape, the country is entering a critical phase in becoming a global crypto capital center.The report points out that the enactment of the GENIUS Act has driven the expansion of the stablecoin market, pushing the total supply of U.S. dollar stablecoins to over $260 billion. The CLARITY Act, expected to be launched by the end of 2025, will clarify the market structure for digital assets in the U.S., delineating the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, thus ending years of regulatory uncertainty.The Bernstein analyst team states that the "Project Crypto," led by SEC Chair Atkins, is at the core of this transformation, aiming to deeply integrate the securities market with blockchain infrastructure and exclude most crypto assets from securities laws, thereby allowing tokenized stocks and bonds to circulate under a unified regulatory framework.The report also notes that U.S. crypto ETF assets have reached $160 billion, with institutional investors accounting for about a quarter; since the beginning of 2024, the total financing from crypto company IPOs has exceeded $4 billion, and the total market capitalization of listed crypto companies has increased from $80 billion to $380 billion, with Coinbase and Robinhood being included in the S&P 500 index.Bernstein believes that a clear regulatory path, the return of institutional capital, and the maturity of on-chain financial infrastructure are driving the formation of a more sustainable new crypto cycle.

ChainCatcher news, Wall Street broker Bernstein stated that if U.S. interest rates decline significantly, Circle (CRCL) may see its revenue impacted, but strong demand for stablecoins and operational leverage could help mitigate the blow. The current rating for Circle stock is outperform, with a target price of $230. The stock fell 2.3% in early trading, dropping to around $134.4.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, IREN has recently performed strongly, with its stock price rising over 500% in the past six months, surpassing MARA to become the largest publicly traded Bitcoin miner.However, this did not stop analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein from raising their price target more than three times on Wednesday, setting a new target of $75 per share, while maintaining an "outperform" rating—based on the expectation that its AI cloud business will achieve "exponential" growth.

ChainCatcher news, Bernstein analysts indicate that Tether will face significant challenges in launching its new stablecoin USAT in the U.S. market. Although the product is designed to meet U.S. compliance requirements, including reserve proof and bankruptcy protection, compliance alone is not enough to ensure success. Circle has already established a leading position in the U.S. market, with its stablecoin USDC deeply integrated into institutions such as Coinbase, Bullish, and Anchorage Digital, and widely circulated on chains like Ethereum, Solana, and Hyperliquid.Analysis points out that liquidity is the most difficult barrier for Tether to overcome in the U.S. Compared to Circle, Tether needs to build a liquidity network for USAT from scratch and persuade partners to accept an issuer that primarily operates offshore. Furthermore, if USAT lacks cross-chain interoperability on mainstream public chains, its adoption rate will be limited. Currently, USDC has issued over $9 billion in a single month on Ethereum, increasing its share of the DeFi stablecoin market to 58%. Meanwhile, Hyperliquid's native stablecoin USDH and payment giant Stripe are also positioning themselves for new competition. Analysts believe that as the U.S. "Genius Act" establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins, stablecoins will continue to be one of the most promising growth areas in the crypto market.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Bernstein analysts' latest report indicates that despite a recent cooling in prices, the current cryptocurrency bull market may continue until 2027, driven by U.S. policy support and increasing institutional adoption. Analysts expect Bitcoin to rise to $150,000 to $200,000 within the next year, while also raising the target prices for Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle.Additionally, the company anticipates that the crypto asset cycle will surpass Bitcoin, with Ethereum, Solana, and DeFi tokens driving the next wave of increases.

ChainCatcher news, led by Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, indicates that despite investors' concerns about competitor Tether potentially entering the U.S. market, as well as new stablecoin competition and interest rate pressures, more liquid and strictly regulated stablecoins will dominate the stablecoin network, with Circle's USDC ultimately prevailing. Therefore, the target price for the company's stock is reiterated at $230, representing a 40% increase from current levels.

ChainCatcher news, led by Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, indicates that as ETH reaches its highest point in years and the altcoin rebound begins, Coinbase will benefit the most. They believe that the long-tail effect of tokens supported by Coinbase, a large amount of staked assets, and revenue from the Base chain can drive a surge in trading volume. Additionally, Coinbase holds a reserve of 136,782 ETH, valued at $570 million.In a memo to clients on Monday, analysts noted that since the sensational IPO of stablecoin issuer Circle on June 5, ETH has risen by 80%. As investors realize that most stablecoins are issued on the Ethereum network, interest in the Ethereum ecosystem has grown, and Coinbase will be the biggest beneficiary, as it has listed over 250 tokens and integrated long-tail tokens on the Base chain within the Coinbase App.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, analysts from research brokerage Bernstein pointed out that the SEC's latest initiative, Project Crypto, marks "the boldest and most transformative vision for crypto proposed during the SEC chairman's tenure," which could revitalize innovation in the United States and position the country as a global blockchain financial center.The Bernstein analyst team believes that the SEC's dismissal of the lawsuit against Coinbase signifies a shift in the regulatory model from "the rigidity of the analog era" to "the pragmatism of the digital age." Paul Atkins emphasized that the U.S. regulatory framework should not cling to outdated paradigms that hinder innovation. "The future is coming at full speed— the world will not wait. The U.S. must not only keep pace with the digital asset revolution but must also lead this transformation," he stated in his speech.Bernstein analysts noted that the plan will attract previously relocated crypto companies back to the U.S. by loosening outdated regulations. Unlike former chairman Gensler's stance, Paul Atkins believes that most crypto assets do not fall under the category of securities, and the ambiguity of the Howey test has hindered capital formation in the U.S. The SEC plans to introduce new rules that will clearly categorize crypto assets into digital commodities, stablecoins, and digital collectibles.The report particularly emphasizes that the new rules will support the issuance of tokenized securities under U.S. jurisdiction, with Wall Street giants and tech companies showing strong interest, which will effectively reduce companies' overseas circumvention operations. Additionally, the SEC will allow broker-dealers to conduct comprehensive crypto and traditional financial business with a single license, eliminating the complex dual approval barriers of state and federal regulations. This shift from "ATS regulation" to "super application regulation" will enable the platform integration of trading, staking, lending, and stablecoin services.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, research institution Bernstein maintains an "outperform" rating for Robinhood and Coinbase, stating that the crypto bull market is still in its early stages. Robinhood's revenue in the second quarter increased by 46% year-on-year, and crypto trading volume grew by 32% year-on-year.Coinbase has reached a strategic partnership with JPMorgan, allowing Chase Bank customers to directly link their Coinbase accounts and exchange reward points 1:1 for USDC.Bernstein analysts noted that although Robinhood and Coinbase's stock prices have significantly risen this year, the current cryptocurrency bull market is still in its early stages. Specifically, Robinhood's stock price has increased by over 175% this year, while Coinbase's has risen by 47%. In contrast, Bitcoin and Ethereum have increased by 27% and 15% respectively this year.Bernstein believes that Coinbase is becoming the core platform for traditional banks to access blockchain financial infrastructure, and this trend will accelerate the mainstream application of USDC in payments and savings.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Bernstein analysts stated that despite the controversy between Robinhood and OpenAI last week, the regulatory environment will still drive the "wave of equity tokenization."Robinhood launched tokenized stock products in Cannes, including stocks from over 200 publicly listed U.S. companies and equity from private companies like OpenAI, but OpenAI immediately stated that it had not authorized any tokens representing its stock.Robinhood positions these products as derivatives backed by special purpose vehicles and stated that the SEC's supportive stance and the CLARITY Act will pave the way for the tokenized asset market. Analysts believe that the regulatory environment is evolving in favor of equity tokenization, which will provide investors with more liquidity options.

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, analysts from research and brokerage firm Bernstein have initiated coverage on stablecoin issuer Circle, giving it an "outperform" rating with a target price set at $230."Circle is building a market-leading digital dollar stablecoin network, with regulatory advantages, a first-mover position in liquidity, and top-tier channel partnerships," the team led by analyst Gautam Chhugani noted in a client report on Monday. "We believe CRCL is a must-have asset for investors looking to position themselves in the internet-level financial infrastructure of the next decade."Analysts expect stablecoins to upgrade from the payment rails of the crypto market to the payment infrastructure of the entire internet, with total supply projected to grow 16 times from the current $244 billion to $4 trillion over the next decade. This growth will stem from "transformative developments" in crypto and tokenized capital markets, payment systems, and stablecoin-native financial services.Chhugani emphasized that with the recent passage of the GENIUS Act by the U.S. Senate, USDC will become the largest regulated stablecoin under this legislation, and this "regulatory first-mover advantage" will make it the preferred partner for internet platforms (not limited to trading platforms). Its $61.4 billion liquidity reserve is difficult for newcomers lacking crypto channels to replicate, as most competitors are trapped by the "cold start" problem.However, Bernstein predicts that Circle will only capture a 30% share of this $4 trillion potential market—an increase of just 5 percentage points from the current 25% market share. Currently, Tether (USDT) maintains a dominant position with a supply of $158.5 billion, accounting for 65% of the market. As a foreign issuer, Tether may need to establish a U.S. subsidiary to comply with new regulatory requirements.Chhugani pointed out that Circle's stock price currently corresponds to 56 times the adjusted EBITDA for 2026 and 28 times for 2027, reflecting strong investor demand for pure stablecoin assets. Bernstein has assigned a valuation of $230 using a ten-year discounted cash flow model, corresponding to about 35 times the adjusted EBITDA for 2027. The firm expects the company's revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 47% from 2024 to 2027, with EBITDA growing by 71%, and the adoption of USDC will offset revenue pressures caused by interest rate factors—suggesting to seize buying opportunities during market pullbacks.