bernstein

According to The Block, research and brokerage firm Bernstein stated that Bitcoin mining company IREN plans to invest $25 billion to $30 billion to expand its AI cloud business in fiscal year 2027. This scale of capital expenditure may "scare the market," but analysts believe investors are overlooking the improving economic benefits.Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani pointed out in a report to clients on Friday that the payback period for GPU capital expenditures has shortened from about three years under the 2025 Microsoft contract to about two years. IREN's fiscal year 2026 performance released on Thursday showed that AI cloud service revenue grew nearly eightfold from $16.4 million the previous year to $128.8 million, while Bitcoin mining revenue reached $578.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 19%. Total revenue rose from $501 million to $707 million, but the company recorded a net loss of $702.6 million, partly reflecting a $638.8 million impairment due to the retirement of Bitcoin mining hardware to support AI cloud expansion.Bernstein stated that IREN currently has an annualized run rate revenue of $1 billion from operating cloud and $4 billion in contract revenue, with its 2026 capacity nearly sold out. In addition to the expected $700 million related to the Nvidia contract in 2027, IREN's total contract cloud ARR amounts to $4.7 billion. Over the past 12 months, IREN has raised $19 billion through customer prepayments, GPU financing, convertible bonds, and equity issuance.

Wall Street research firm Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin will return to $125,000 by the end of 2026 and reach a cycle peak of $300,000 by 2029, with a bullish scenario potentially reaching $500,000. The firm also maintains a long-term target price of approximately $1 million for 2033.Bernstein's analysis is based on historical cycles driven by Bitcoin's halving events, which occur approximately every four years. Each cycle is divided into four stages: breakout, hype, pullback, and accumulation, and potential prices are estimated by comparing Bitcoin prices with marginal production costs. Analysts assume that the price-to-marginal cost multiple will perform similarly to previous cycles.Bernstein also expects that the Bitcoin recovery will improve the outlook for Strategy, the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holder, maintaining its "outperform" rating but lowering the MSTR target price from $450 to $350 due to accelerated equity dilution and updated Bitcoin cycle outlook. Strategy currently holds 840,447 Bitcoins, accounting for about 4% of Bitcoin's maximum supply.

Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reach a new high of $150,000 by mid-2027, followed by a peak of around $300,000 around 2029. The agency pointed out that this trend is related to the rise of the "debasement trade."At the same time, Bernstein maintains an Outperform rating on Strategy but has lowered its target price from $450 to $350, citing the updated Bitcoin cycle outlook and the accelerated equity dilution of the company.

According to Cointelegraph, Bernstein analysts believe that USDC shows signs of "digital dollar re-inflation," with its supply surging by $2 billion in seven days.The institution maintains an outperform rating on Circle (CRCL), setting a target price of $140, and points out that USDC's trading volume share has surpassed that of USDT.

According to The Block, research firm Bernstein reaffirmed its "Outperform" rating and maintained a target price of $140 after Circle announced its Q2 2026 financial results, believing that the company's latest performance constitutes a "reverse validation" of the market's bearish views. Bernstein analysts stated that the market currently underestimates USDC's long-term growth potential and Circle's advantages in distribution channels, liquidity, and regulatory compliance, due to two major core concerns regarding Circle—intensifying competition in stablecoins and changes in the interest rate environment that may affect reserve income.Investors may not have fully accounted for the future revenue opportunities from transaction fees, partner ecosystems, and the Arc blockchain that Circle could generate. The firm specifically pointed out that several infrastructure initiatives recently advanced by Circle, including obtaining a national trust bank license in the U.S., expanding the Circle Payments Network, and the planned launch of the Arc public chain mainnet on September 16, could all become future growth drivers. Additionally, Bernstein noted that Circle has raised its guidance for other revenues and profit margins after deducting distribution costs for 2026, expecting to confirm approximately $180 million in Arc token presale revenue.Analysts believe that future staking yields, gas fees, and ecosystem partnership revenues from Arc have not been fully reflected in current valuation expectations. As of the end of Q2, the circulating supply of USDC was $73.3 billion, a decrease of 5% from the previous quarter but an increase of 19% year-over-year. Bernstein believes that Circle is shifting from a purely crypto trading infrastructure to payments, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, and broader financial infrastructure, which will drive USDC into the next phase of growth. Circle's stock closed at $63.28 on Wednesday, and Bernstein's target price of $140 implies a potential upside of about 121%.

According to Cointelegraph, investment firm Bernstein stated that the prospects for the passage of the U.S. CLARITY Act are declining. If the Senate fails to advance the bill before the recess, it may trigger a short-term negative reaction in the market, putting further pressure on the valuations of Bitcoin and the overall crypto assets.Bernstein pointed out that the failure of the bill could lead to a market "instinctive sell-off," but in the medium to long term, it may also prompt the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to accelerate regulatory actions, including clarifying token classification rules, developing a regulatory framework for decentralized finance (DeFi), and advancing token issuance exemption mechanisms.Bernstein expects that the crypto market may bottom out between the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, gradually regaining momentum before the U.S. midterm elections.Currently, market expectations for the CLARITY Act to be signed into law by the end of 2026 continue to decline. Data from prediction platform Polymarket shows that the probability of the bill passing this year has dropped to 31%, down 7 percentage points from a week ago and down 9 percentage points from the past month, with related betting amounts around $3.7 million.The CLARITY Act aims to establish the first regulatory framework for the digital asset market in the U.S., but it faces opposition from the banking industry due to stablecoin yield provisions. Previously, Galaxy Digital had lowered the probability of the bill being enacted by 2026 to 50% and warned that the Senate's advancement timeline is shrinking.

According to The Block, Bernstein has lowered Circle's target price from $190 to $140 while maintaining an outperform rating. Analyst Gautam Chhugani stated that the threat posed to Circle by the Open USD Alliance, supported by over 140 institutions including Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe, is lower than market expectations. As of July 28, Circle's closing price was $64.32.The end-of-quarter supply of USDC for the second quarter was approximately $73 billion, down from $77 billion in the first quarter, with the average supply rising to about $76 billion. The average SOFR for the second quarter decreased to 3.62%, the reserve return rate fell to 3.46%, and reserve income rose to approximately $655 million. The USDC balance on Hyperliquid has increased from $5 billion in mid-May to over $6 billion, generating about $210 million in annualized gross reserve income, of which approximately $190 million is directed to the exchange according to the revenue-sharing agreement.Bernstein has reduced its forecast for USDC supply at the end of 2026 by 37% to $83 billion and lowered its 2028 forecast to $170 billion; the adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2026 has been cut by 12% to $602 million, and the earnings per share (EPS) forecast has been lowered from $1.98 to $0.92. However, the firm expects that by 2035, the total supply of stablecoins will reach $4 trillion, with Circle holding about a 30% share. Additionally, Circle received final approval from the OCC in July to establish Circle National Trust.

According to The Block, Bernstein pointed out in its latest research report that the perpetual contract structure originating from the cryptocurrency market has first entered the AI computing power market. The Architect AX exchange, registered in Bermuda and not regulated by the CFTC, has launched GPU computing power perpetual contracts, which are anchored to spot prices through funding rates, a mechanism that directly originates from the cryptocurrency market. The cash-settled computing power futures from CME and ICE are still awaiting CFTC review, with a launch expected by the end of 2026.In addition, the CFTC-regulated prediction market platform Kalshi has previously launched prediction contracts linked to GPU rental prices and introduced the computing power pricing curves for B200, H200, and A100 chips on July 14, with the B200 quoted at $5.41 and a historical peak of $7.39.Bernstein noted that unused GPU computing power cannot be stored, and hedging is the only way to bear price risk. However, the current market liquidity is still dominated by speculative funds, and the difficulty in constructing computing power benchmark indices is also a major bottleneck in market development.

According to Jinshi News, Bernstein has raised its gold price target for 2026 to $4,533 per ounce, citing that central banks around the world are diversifying their reserves and that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates only once or twice in the next year at most.

According to Coindesk, Bernstein stated in a research report released on Monday that Robinhood's newly launched blockchain, Robinhood Chain, has performed strongly since its launch, quickly becoming one of the most active networks for decentralized trading.The report noted that since the mainnet went live on July 1, the DEX trading volume on Robinhood Chain reached $3.1 billion in the past week, ranking it among the top five chains by DEX activity. Currently, over 65,000 users hold approximately $13 million in tokenized stocks and $300 million in stablecoins on the chain.Bernstein believes that the early adoption of Robinhood Chain highlights the accelerated integration of tokenized real-world assets with the broader DeFi ecosystem. The network is built on Arbitrum, an Ethereum Layer 2, supporting Robinhood's tokenized stock products, providing 24/7 trading, self-custody, as well as on-chain use cases such as lending and collateralization, and has integrated with partners like Uniswap, Morpho, Lighter, Chainlink, and BitGo.The report also stated that although the current early trading volume is primarily driven by meme coins, Robinhood is expected to focus more on tokenized stocks, commodities, and other RWA assets, as well as perpetual contract business in the future.

According to Jinshi reports, Bernstein has initiated coverage on SpaceX (SPCX.O) with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of $239.

According to The Block, Bernstein reiterated its outperform rating on Circle in a report released on Wednesday, maintaining a target price of $190, representing a potential upside of approximately 203%.Analysts believe that while Open USD shows that the stablecoin sector is widely recognized, it will be difficult in the short term to challenge Circle's network effects and liquidity advantages. Circle's USDC saw a trading volume of $5.3 trillion in the first half of 2026, a significant year-on-year increase, with its trading volume share rising from about 40% in 2025 to approximately 60% currently.At the same time, Bernstein also maintains an outperform rating on Coinbase, with a target price of $330.

Bernstein analyst Mark Newman significantly raised the target price for SanDisk (SNDK.O) from $1700 to $3000, maintaining an "Outperform" rating.The firm pointed out in its research report that the new Long-Term Agreement (LTA) for storage has undergone a structural change, shifting from being customer-favorable to more advantageous for suppliers. The new agreements typically include fixed or range-constrained pricing, commitments of prepaid funds that lock in customers and provide downside protection, and longer contract durations. Based on data provided by the company, Bernstein estimates that the floor price for SanDisk in the recently signed LTAs is approximately $0.29 per GB.

According to CoinDesk, Wall Street broker Bernstein pointed out in a recent report that the rapid integration of the market technology stack is increasing the likelihood of a new round of mergers and acquisitions in the field of sports event contracts and financial markets.The report states that in the past eight months, major prediction platforms have been developing towards simultaneously controlling customer distribution and exchange infrastructure. Although Kalshi and Polymarket have core technology stacks, their distribution capabilities are relatively lagging, making them potential acquisition targets.Recent actions include DraftKings acquiring Railbird to launch DKeX, Robinhood collaborating with Susquehanna to create Rothera, and Coinbase acquiring The Clearing Company. Bernstein believes that Robinhood and Coinbase are currently in a relatively advantageous position in the competitive landscape, as both have large consumer user bases and fully owned regulated infrastructures, while Kalshi and Polymarket are viewed as potential acquisition targets due to their lack of large-scale distribution capabilities.

According to The Block, Bernstein analysts stated that the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be the largest catalyst for the prediction market industry to date, expected to bring in over $3 billion in incremental betting volume and a $5-10 billion increase in consumer prediction market trading volume.The agency previously predicted that the prediction market industry would reach a trading volume of $1 trillion by 2030, with an estimated $240 billion in 2026 alone. Analysts believe that platforms such as DraftKings, Robinhood, and Coinbase will significantly benefit from the World Cup, with Robinhood's prediction market business expected to see a year-on-year revenue growth of 286% in 2026.

According to CoinDesk, Wall Street brokerage Bernstein released a research report indicating that the main driver of Bitcoin's price weakness in 2026 is a slowdown in capital flows, rather than the market's concerns about the threat of quantum computing.The report shows that this year, Bitcoin treasury companies and ETFs attracted approximately $12 billion in inflows, a significant decrease from $60 billion in 2025; ETFs recorded about $2.6 billion in net outflows based on an asset scale of $75 billion, with new demand primarily coming from corporate buyers represented by Strategy (MSTR). Bernstein analysts attribute the slowdown in funds to a large influx of retail investors into AI-related assets, with this year's strongest performance in the crypto market concentrated in tokenized stocks and commodities.Nevertheless, analysts believe that the scale of ETF outflows remains moderate, and the structure of Bitcoin investors has shifted from being dominated by retail investors to a more diverse group including ETFs, corporate treasuries, wealth management platforms, pension funds, and sovereign investors, resulting in a healthier market structure, with the long-term value storage logic remaining intact.

According to The Block, Bernstein analysts stated that despite a cumulative net outflow of $2.6 billion from Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2026, the long-term argument for Bitcoin as a store of value has not changed.Since the beginning of this year, the net inflow into ETFs and corporate treasuries has been approximately $12 billion (about $60 billion in 2025), with corporate treasuries being the main driving force. Glassnode data shows that 61% of the circulating Bitcoin supply has been idle for over a year.The accumulation of corporate funds is the main force offsetting ETF liquidations, with Strategy raising $7.5 billion through STRC preferred stock products to acquire approximately 100,000 Bitcoins, and its $53 billion Bitcoin position can cover more than 30 times STRC's annual cash dividends of $1.2 billion.Analysts added that although Bitcoin inflows have slowed, capital is shifting towards real-world asset (RWA) tokenization-related infrastructure, with platforms like Hyperliquid seeing significant growth in trading volume in tokenized stocks and commodities markets.

Bernstein analysts stated last week that Figure Technology Solutions' first-quarter financial report shows the company is rapidly becoming a unique presence in the blockchain market platform. The performance released by Figure on May 11 significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations in both revenue and EBITDA, with its core business transforming real-world credit assets into blockchain-native tools that can be traded and financed on-chain.Analysts believe Figure is building a blockchain-native capital market ecosystem, fundamentally differentiating itself from traditional balance sheet-based fintech lending platforms, and expect its stock FIGR to become a real-time reflection of blockchain loan volumes. Bernstein pointed out in a research report on May 15 that on-chain real-time data indicates Figure is about to welcome a record-breaking second quarter.Co-founder Mike Cagney introduced that the company's Forge platform can convert entire loans into small single-dollar liquidity participation units, addressing the liquidity challenges of RWA in DeFi. Bernstein previously estimated that the potential market size for annual credit issuance that could migrate on-chain could reach $4 trillion, while the current tokenized credit market is approximately $5.14 billion.