bernstein

Bernstein stated in its latest research report that the recently reached compromise on stablecoin yield in the U.S. CLARITY Act is structurally beneficial for Circle and the USDC ecosystem.The report indicates that the current version of the bill prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest to passive holders that is "economically equivalent" to bank deposits, but allows reward mechanisms related to real transactions, payments, and usage behaviors to continue. Bernstein believes this means that Circle's current model, which relies on partners like Coinbase to provide USDC reward programs, will gain regulatory recognition, while also limiting the industry's ability to compete for market share through high yields.Bernstein pointed out that the bill actually reinforces the positioning of stablecoins as "payment tools" rather than "deposit substitutes," which helps protect Circle's current business model that relies on reserve income. It continues to give Circle an "outperform" rating and a target price of $190.Data shows that the total supply of global dollar stablecoins has surpassed $300 billion, with USDT and USDC together accounting for about 97% of the market share. Bernstein noted that USDC's share in on-chain payments and wallet transfers is continuously increasing, with its payment share in the AI Agent payment protocol x402 exceeding 99%.Additionally, Bernstein mentioned that Circle's launched ARC chain has completed a total of 244 million testnet transactions, and its ARC token presale previously raised $222 million, with investors including a16z crypto, Apollo Funds, ARK Invest, and BlackRock among others.However, the report also pointed out that the CLARITY Act still needs to complete several legislative procedures before it can officially take effect, including a full Senate vote with 60 votes and coordination with the House version. Polymarket currently predicts a probability of about 62% for it to pass by 2026.

Bernstein analysts stated last week that Figure Technology Solutions' first-quarter financial report shows the company is rapidly becoming a unique presence in the blockchain market platform. The performance released by Figure on May 11 significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations in both revenue and EBITDA, with its core business transforming real-world credit assets into blockchain-native tools that can be traded and financed on-chain.Analysts believe Figure is building a blockchain-native capital market ecosystem, fundamentally differentiating itself from traditional balance sheet-based fintech lending platforms, and expect its stock FIGR to become a real-time reflection of blockchain loan volumes. Bernstein pointed out in a research report on May 15 that on-chain real-time data indicates Figure is about to welcome a record-breaking second quarter.Co-founder Mike Cagney introduced that the company's Forge platform can convert entire loans into small single-dollar liquidity participation units, addressing the liquidity challenges of RWA in DeFi. Bernstein previously estimated that the potential market size for annual credit issuance that could migrate on-chain could reach $4 trillion, while the current tokenized credit market is approximately $5.14 billion.

Bernstein reiterated its "Outperform" rating on Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) and maintained a target price of $67, implying about a 72% upside from the current stock price of $38.97. Figure's Q1 2026 performance was strong: loan issuance reached $2.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 113%; adjusted revenue was $167 million, a year-on-year increase of 92%, exceeding market expectations by 6%; adjusted EBITDA was $82.7 million, with a profit margin of about 50%, slightly above market expectations. However, the GAAP diluted EPS was $0.18, about 9% below expectations, primarily impacted by $26 million in equity incentive expenses.Bernstein's analysis suggests that this performance should reshape the market's perception of Figure, as it is not a traditional credit company, but rather a "tokenization-driven capital market platform," with core profits coming from network fees and operational leverage, and it maintains a pricing model based on a 25x EBITDA valuation for 2027. Additionally, the tokenization ecosystem continues to expand: the yield-bearing security token YLDS reached $598 million (up 80% quarter-on-quarter); the balance of stock lending products was $368 million (up 79%); and the small business loan segment contributed $6 million in revenue. Figure's current stock price is still not far from the 2025 IPO issue price of $36, but there remains a significant gap from the historical high of $78.

Bernstein stated that it maintains a target price of $190 for Circle (CRCL): Although the decline in interest rates led to a quarter-over-quarter drop in reserve income of 11%, Q1 revenue of $694 million was slightly below expectations, but adjusted EBITDA reached $151 million, exceeding consensus by about 10%. Analysts pointed out that Circle's $222 million ARC token presale, completed at a fully diluted valuation of $3 billion, along with robust growth in USDC supply reaching $77 billion (a year-on-year increase of 28%), provides a buffer for the company.According to Gate's market data, Circle's stock closed at $131.76 on Monday, with the target price implying about a 44% upside. Bernstein reiterated that the upcoming launch of the Arc Layer 1 mainnet, the expansion of the payment network, and its leading position in AI agent payments (x402 standard) will support the long-term growth of USDC and maintain the fiscal year 2026 guidance unchanged.

According to Theblock, despite Robinhood's first-quarter performance falling short of expectations, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani's team maintains an outperform rating on HOOD with a target price of $130.Analysts pointed out that the weak performance in the first quarter has already been reflected in the stock price. They highlighted that several core metrics of Robinhood remain strong: the margin loan balance reached a record $17 billion (up 93% year-over-year), event contract trading was active in April, predicting the market size is moving towards $3 billion, and Robinhood Gold subscription users increased by 36% year-over-year to 4.34 million.However, the current market shows that Robinhood (HOOD) is down over 10% in pre-market trading.

According to The Block, analysts at research firm Bernstein stated in their latest report that the fundamentals of the crypto market are continuously improving. The recent low of $60,000 for Bitcoin has formed a clear bottom, and the current price is approaching $80,000. Driven by institutional demand, a longer structural bull market is expected.Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani pointed out the following core driving factors:Institutional channels continue to expand: Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF and Charles Schwab's spot Bitcoin/Ethereum trading platform have been launched one after another, with about 60% of Bitcoin supply not having moved for over a year, indicating a stable holder structure;Strategy continues to increase holdings: its STRC perpetual preferred stock product attracts income-focused investors, with current holdings reaching 818,334 Bitcoins;Demand for stablecoins reaches an all-time high: stablecoin supply has surpassed $30 billion, decoupling from the price cycle of the crypto market, showing that real payment and settlement demand continues to grow;Tokenization of real assets accelerates expansion: the scale of tokenized assets such as private credit and government bonds has reached $345 billion, a year-on-year increase of 110%.Bernstein also noted that quantum computing poses a long-term potential risk, but the blockchain ecosystem is expected to have ample time to complete the post-quantum security transition.

According to Globenewswire, the American law firm Bernstein Liebhard has announced that it has filed a securities fraud class action lawsuit on behalf of investors against the Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange Gemini Space Station, alleging that Gemini made false statements regarding its business operations and prospects in its prospectus and related disclosures, particularly accused of exaggerating the viability of its core cryptocurrency platform business. Investors wishing to serve as lead plaintiffs must submit their applications by May 18, 2026.It is reported that Bernstein Liebhard is a well-known investor relations law firm that has previously filed class action lawsuits against companies such as Ruhnn, Apple, and AsiaInfo-Linkage.

According to Theblock, the analyst team at research and brokerage firm Bernstein predicts that by 2030, the annual trading volume of the prediction market will reach $1 trillion, citing reasons such as regulatory clarity, mainstream distribution partnerships, and structural liquidity advantages compared to the traditional gaming market.It is reported that the trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket has reached a total of $60 billion so far this year, with analysts expecting the trading volume to reach $240 billion by 2026 and maintain an 80% compound annual growth rate by the end of 2030.Sports entertainment contracts currently account for as much as 62% of the trading volume in the prediction market, but analysts predict that this share may slow down to around 31% by the end of 2030, as cryptocurrency, macroeconomic, political, and economic contracts will become larger long-term opportunities. They stated that sports events are just a starting point, not the ultimate goal.

According to Cointelegraph, Bernstein stated that the previous pullback of Bitcoin has to some extent reflected the market's concerns about the risks of quantum computing, believing that this threat is "real but manageable," and is not yet an imminent systemic risk.Although research, including that from Google, suggests that future quantum computers could potentially crack commonly used blockchain encryption algorithms quickly under extreme conditions, advancements in zero-knowledge proofs and post-quantum cryptography have formed a hedge to some extent.Bernstein believes that Bitcoin developers still have about 3 to 5 years to advance the post-quantum upgrade path and mentioned the current BIP-360 proposal, which could reduce some quantum exposure risks through a soft fork. Additionally, institutional investors (including ETF issuers and corporate holders) are expected to play an active role in promoting consensus for the upgrade.However, industry opinions point out that the main challenge of the post-quantum upgrade lies in user migration and consensus formation, rather than the technical implementation itself.

Research and brokerage firm Bernstein stated that Bitcoin has likely bottomed out and is expected to continue rising, while maintaining its price target of $150,000 by 2026.Despite the stock price dropping 50% from its peak, Strategy (stock code: MSTR) has shown strong resilience, currently holding about 3.6% of the total Bitcoin supply (approximately $53.5 billion). Bernstein believes that MSTR is a high beta investment vehicle for Bitcoin, and its balance sheet is relatively robust. Strategy has not reduced its exposure; instead, it has continued to increase its Bitcoin holdings at recent lows, raising $7.3 billion through financing in 2026 to expand its position.

According to Cointelegraph, investment research firm Bernstein pointed out in its latest report that the core driving force behind Bitcoin's recent rebound is the continuous strengthening of the long-term holder structure.In the past week, BTC rose about 7%, and ETH rose about 9%, outperforming gold and major stock indices. Bernstein attributes this to the ongoing inflow of funds into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, as well as the continued accumulation by companies like Strategy. In terms of fund inflows, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen three consecutive weeks of net inflows, totaling over $2.1 billion; the net outflow since the beginning of the year has narrowed to about $460 million, while the total assets under management are approximately $92 billion.Regarding the holding structure, according to Glassnode data, about 60% of the Bitcoin supply has not seen on-chain transfers for over a year. Bitcoin Treasuries data shows that ETFs and exchanges collectively hold about 1.6 million BTC, while publicly traded companies hold about 1.15 million BTC. In terms of corporate accumulation, Strategy has accumulated a total of 66,231 BTC since the beginning of the year, costing about $5.6 billion, with an average price of about $85,000, and the total holdings have exceeded 738,000 BTC.

According to CoinDesk, analysts at brokerage firm Bernstein maintain an "outperform" rating on USDC issuer Circle's stock, with a target price of $190, representing about a 60% upside from the current level of $120.The report notes that the adoption of stablecoins is increasingly decoupling from the cryptocurrency market cycle. Despite the market being in a bear phase, the supply of USDC has rebounded to nearly a record $78 billion, and the total market capitalization of dollar-pegged stablecoins remains stable at around $270 billion. Adjusted stablecoin trading volume has increased by over 90% year-on-year, with trading turnover rising, indicating that stablecoins are being used more frequently in scenarios outside of cryptocurrency trading.Payment adoption is the main driver, as stablecoins are gradually being integrated into traditional card networks. Visa currently supports over 130 stablecoin-linked cards across more than 50 countries, with an annual settlement volume of approximately $4.6 billion. AI-driven "proxy finance" could become a new growth theme, as machine-to-machine micropayments between autonomous software agents will require stablecoins as a natural payment rail.

According to The Block, Robinhood's stock price fell on Tuesday after the company reported a year-over-year decline in cryptocurrency business revenue for the fourth quarter. However, analysts from research and brokerage firm Bernstein stated that this weakness reflects a temporary "crypto market tension" and reiterated their target price of $160.Robinhood's total revenue reached an all-time high, but cryptocurrency trading revenue fell 38% year-over-year to $221 million. Bernstein analysts noted that the revenue weakness due to decreased crypto trading activity was "expected" and stated that "there is no need to turn bearish when the stock price is approaching a cyclical low." Despite the "crypto market tension," several business metrics for the company remained "robust" in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Robinhood Banking, launched at the end of 2025, has attracted over 25,000 funded customers, with total account balances exceeding $400 million.Analysts pointed out that Robinhood's prediction market set a new record, accounting for about 14% of trading revenue and 8% of total revenue. The platform traded 8.5 billion contracts in the fourth quarter, far exceeding previous expectations. The report indicated that trading volume at the beginning of 2026 reached $4 billion, while the previously forecasted trading volume for 2026 was $27 billion.

According to The Block, Bernstein's analysts stated that the current decline of Bitcoin reflects a crisis of confidence rather than structural damage, calling it the "weakest bear market" in Bitcoin's history. Additionally, the analysts reiterated their target price of $150,000 for Bitcoin by 2026, citing increased acceptance by institutional investors, improved ETF infrastructure, and better liquidity conditions.

According to The Block, research firm Bernstein analyzed that the stock price of IREN, a Bitcoin mining company transitioning to AI computing services, fell sharply after releasing its financial report. The main reason was market disappointment over the lack of new large AI partnership announcements, rather than a deterioration in fundamentals.The company's stock price dropped about 18% after the earnings report, to approximately $39.79. Bernstein analysts believe that the volatility of Bitcoin-related earnings is no longer the core investment logic for IREN, and investors are more focused on its progress in transitioning to AI cloud infrastructure. Although IREN's Bitcoin mining revenue decreased quarter-over-quarter this quarter, its AI cloud revenue more than doubled compared to the previous quarter. The company has secured approximately $2.3 billion in annual recurring revenue contracts for AI cloud services and expects this to grow to $3.4 billion by the fourth quarter of 2026, equivalent to deploying about 140,000 GPUs.Bernstein maintains an "outperform" rating on IREN with a target price of $125, viewing this decline as a reset of expectations rather than a signal of deteriorating execution capability.

According to TheBlock, Bernstein's analyst team stated in a report to clients that Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) stock price has fallen over 20% year-to-date, down about 40% from its peak of $89.91. This decline is partly attributed to the overall slump in the cryptocurrency market, which currently accounts for about 21% of the company's total revenue.The analysts outlined three bearish scenarios:Assuming Bitcoin price drops to around $60,000 and remains sluggish for the next couple of years, the expected earnings per share in 2027 would be about $3.10, with a potential stock price range of $46 to $61.Assuming Bitcoin price drops to $60,000 but rebounds in the second half of 2026. The expected earnings per share in 2027 would be about $3.50, with a potential stock price range of $70 to $88.In the most pessimistic scenario, trading volumes for cryptocurrencies and stock options would decline by 50% within two years, with the expected earnings per share for the company in 2027 being $2.40, and a potential stock price range of $24 to $36.However, the analysts noted that currently, Robinhood's non-trading revenue accounts for about 43% of total revenue, with a compound annual growth rate of about 29% over the past two years, and its broader business portfolio helps offset the weakness in cryptocurrency trading activity.

According to The Block, investment research firm Bernstein pointed out in its latest report that the crypto market may still be in a short-term bear cycle, but this trend is expected to reverse within 2026. Bitcoin prices may bottom out around the previous cycle's peak (approximately in the $60,000 range) before establishing a higher price base.The institutional cycle has made this round of market structure different from the previous retail-driven boom and bust. The report noted that U.S. policy dynamics could serve as a catalyst, such as the government using seized Bitcoin to establish strategic reserves and changes in Federal Reserve leadership. Additionally, institutional participation remains resilient, with ETF outflows being relatively limited, and there have been no large-scale leveraged liquidations of miners like in previous cycles.Corporate holders (such as Strategy) continue to accumulate during the downturn, and miners are also diversifying their income sources into AI-related data center businesses. Bernstein concluded that the current weakness may be a late-stage correction rather than the beginning of a prolonged winter, and the market reversal in 2026 could open up a "most impactful cycle" for Bitcoin.

Piper Sandler has lowered the target price for Coinbase from $350 to $270, maintaining a "Neutral" rating. Previously, Bernstein also reduced the target price for Coinbase from $510 to $440.Meanwhile, Bank of America Securities has upgraded Coinbase's investment rating from "Neutral" to "Buy," keeping the target price unchanged at $340. The firm noted that although its stock price has fallen about 40% from last July's high, the pace of product development has accelerated beneath the surface of last year's fourth-quarter cryptocurrency adjustments, and the total addressable market has also expanded. They are optimistic about Coinbase's ambition to develop into a "full-service exchange" and its goal of cross-selling more products to existing users.U.S. stock market data shows that Coinbase's stock price is currently around $240, with a total market capitalization of approximately $64.5 billion.

Bernstein, a Wall Street firm, pointed out in its latest analysis report: "Given the recent market adjustments, we believe the Bitcoin cycle has broken the four-year pattern (i.e., peaks occurring every four years) and is currently entering an extended bull market cycle, with more resilient institutional buying funds offsetting any retail panic selling. Although Bitcoin has retraced about 30%, we have observed that the outflow of funds through ETFs is less than 5%.Accordingly, we have adjusted our Bitcoin target price for the end of 2026 to $150,000, and we expect this cycle's peak to potentially reach $200,000 in 2027. Our long-term (up to 2033) target price expectation for Bitcoin remains at approximately $1,000,000."