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CITIC Securities Bao Chengchao: The valuation of domestic large-cap blue chips is relatively low, and the recovery space for domestic demand manufacturing is the most ample

According to reports from People's Financial News, Bao Chengchao, the chief strategist of the research department at CITIC Securities, pointed out in his latest insights that, compared to the global market, the valuation of domestic large-cap blue-chip stocks is at a relatively low level. The A-shares market is the only one among the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and A-shares where the AI relative to non-AI valuation premium is still higher than the historical mean. As of October 22, 2026, the PE ratio of A-shares for AI/non-AI is 4.4 times, which is at the 82nd percentile since 2016, while the same indicator for the U.S., Japan, and South Korea has fallen to the 1%, 17%, and 24% percentiles, respectively.The AI premium in overseas markets has largely been absorbed by the rise in non-AI valuations. The PE ratios for non-AI non-financial leaders in the U.S. and Japan are 33.5 times and 23.0 times, respectively, which are at the 98% and 95% percentiles in history. The overall PE ratio for A-shares related to domestic demand and manufacturing non-AI blue-chip stocks is only 15.6 times, which is at the 21% percentile in history. Bao Chengchao believes that this misalignment indicates that the large-cap blue-chip stocks related to domestic demand and manufacturing in A-shares have relatively ample room for valuation recovery.Bao Chengchao also stated that the realization of this space requires coordination with macro conditions. On the overseas front, if the AI spending cycle gradually approaches a downward turning point, long-term U.S. Treasury rates may also decline, leading to marginal improvements in the demand and valuation environment for global non-AI sectors. Domestically, the clear alignment of fiscal and monetary policies places a focus on expanding domestic demand, with increasing signals of marginal improvement in core indicators of domestic demand. If the decline in overseas interest rates and the recovery of the domestic economy create a phase resonance, the profit expectations and valuation constraints of large-cap blue-chip stocks in A-shares are expected to recover simultaneously.

Data: Bitcoin's June pullback triggered $8.6 billion in options becoming out of the money, with 80% of positions nearing expiration becoming ineffective or amplifying volatility

Market data platform Deribit shows that as Bitcoin continues to decline in June, the options market set to expire this month has experienced a significant imbalance, with approximately $8.6 billion nominal value of BTC options in an out-of-the-money (OTM) state, facing the risk of expiring worthless.Data indicates that among the approximately $10.6 billion in open options contracts expiring on June 26, only about 20% are in-the-money (ITM), while the remaining 80% are currently at a loss. Analysts point out that this structural imbalance may trigger concentrated hedging adjustments by market makers and traders before expiration, thereby amplifying short-term market volatility.The current maximum pain price is approximately $74,000, which is about 14% higher than Bitcoin's current price of around $65,000. Theoretically, this price level means that the maximum number of options contracts will expire worthless, potentially creating an upward pull on prices as expiration approaches, although the effectiveness of this mechanism in the crypto market remains controversial.Additionally, the bullish and bearish structures in the options market are relatively close, with a Put/Call ratio of about 0.87, indicating increased divergence in market sentiment. Approximately $450 million in positions are concentrated in $60,000 put options, while $80,000 call options also form a key resistance level of about $406 million.Analysts believe that as the quarterly expiration approaches, concentrated exercising and hedging adjustments may become important driving factors for short-term price volatility, and Bitcoin may face a more intense directional choice window.
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