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Data: Bitcoin's June pullback triggered $8.6 billion in options becoming out of the money, with 80% of positions nearing expiration becoming ineffective or amplifying volatility

Market data platform Deribit shows that as Bitcoin continues to decline in June, the options market set to expire this month has experienced a significant imbalance, with approximately $8.6 billion nominal value of BTC options in an out-of-the-money (OTM) state, facing the risk of expiring worthless.Data indicates that among the approximately $10.6 billion in open options contracts expiring on June 26, only about 20% are in-the-money (ITM), while the remaining 80% are currently at a loss. Analysts point out that this structural imbalance may trigger concentrated hedging adjustments by market makers and traders before expiration, thereby amplifying short-term market volatility.The current maximum pain price is approximately $74,000, which is about 14% higher than Bitcoin's current price of around $65,000. Theoretically, this price level means that the maximum number of options contracts will expire worthless, potentially creating an upward pull on prices as expiration approaches, although the effectiveness of this mechanism in the crypto market remains controversial.Additionally, the bullish and bearish structures in the options market are relatively close, with a Put/Call ratio of about 0.87, indicating increased divergence in market sentiment. Approximately $450 million in positions are concentrated in $60,000 put options, while $80,000 call options also form a key resistance level of about $406 million.Analysts believe that as the quarterly expiration approaches, concentrated exercising and hedging adjustments may become important driving factors for short-term price volatility, and Bitcoin may face a more intense directional choice window.

BlackRock stated that $9 trillion in cash is accelerating the return to risk assets, and multiple events this week may amplify market volatility

Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, stated that after the U.S. and Iran reached a peace arrangement, approximately $8 trillion to $9 trillion in funds sitting in money market funds are accelerating their return to risk assets, and he mentioned that this process could have an "explosive" effect. Driven by the return of funds, U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds rose simultaneously on Monday, while oil prices fell due to expectations of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Rieder believes that current liquidity is spreading from low-risk instruments to a broader range of assets, and he expects that the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh may pay more attention to balance sheet and money supply management, rather than solely relying on short-term interest rate tools. Meanwhile, the derivatives market is set to face a busy event window. Due to the June holiday market closure, this week's "Triple Witching" has been moved up to Thursday, combined with the quarterly rebalancing of the S&P 500, increasing volatility risk in U.S. stocks. Additionally, options related to SpaceX are expected to begin trading on Tuesday. Market participants believe that driven by retail investor funds, related contracts may heat up quickly, potentially leading to a "gamma squeeze" triggered by concentrated buying of call options.Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma, warned that against the backdrop of a continuous rise in U.S. stocks since April, the pressure on market makers to hedge is accumulating. If Warsh releases signals that exceed expectations during his first press conference, the market has almost no buffer space to absorb the shock. The quarterly adjustments to the S&P 500 index will also take effect after the close on Thursday, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Flex (FLEX) being added to the index, while Pool (POOL) and Campbell's (CPB) will be removed.

4E: Bitcoin maintains high-level fluctuations, and the ETF capital absorption effect continues to amplify

ChainCatcher message, according to 4E observations, in the past 72 hours, the Bitcoin price has continued to fluctuate near historical highs, and market sentiment remains optimistic. As of July 15, 2025, 15:00 (UTC+8), Bitcoin is currently priced at $118,730, with a fluctuation range maintained between $117,500 and $119,800 over the past 72 hours. Short-term support is solid, indicating strong institutional backing.The main reason for this strong market trend remains the continuous capital inflow into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has surpassed 704,000 BTC in total holdings, with a market value approaching $76 billion. Data shows that on Monday (July 14) alone, there was a net inflow of approximately $164 million, far exceeding the daily capital inflow of newly issued bonds during the same period, highlighting the appeal of crypto assets to traditional capital allocation.Meanwhile, concept stocks closely related to crypto in the U.S. stock market have performed strongly. MicroStrategy (MSTR) continued its upward trend from last week, rising about 5.6% in 72 hours, while Riot Platforms and Marathon Digital also recorded moderate increases. Investors are showing sustained confidence in the "on-chain holdings + ETF-driven" dual logic.On the macro level, the U.S. Congress's "Crypto Week" has officially begun, with several legislative reviews such as the "CLARITY Act" and the "GENIUS Act" underway, which are expected to promote institutional breakthroughs in areas like stablecoins and asset custody. Additionally, the U.S. June CPI year-on-year increase has dropped to 2.8%, reinforcing market expectations for interest rate cuts within the year, providing external support for risk assets.4E reminds investors: Although the market is strong, volatility remains frequent. It is recommended to closely monitor ETF capital flows and policy developments, and to manage leverage levels prudently.
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