arm

This Friday, the United States will release non-farm payroll data, which will serve as an important reference for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Prior to this, CME's "FedWatch" shows that traders are betting on a probability of over 50% for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice this year.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has turned positive again, currently reported at 0.005% (yesterday it was -0.0086%), and buying sentiment in the U.S. market is beginning to warm up.The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is used to measure the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase (a mainstream trading platform in the U.S.) and the global market average price. This index is an important indicator for observing the flow of funds in the U.S. market, the enthusiasm of institutional investors, and changes in market sentiment. A positive premium indicates that the Coinbase price is higher than the global average price, which usually means: strong buying in the U.S. market, active entry of institutional or compliant funds, ample dollar liquidity, and optimistic investment sentiment. A negative premium indicates that the Coinbase price is lower than the global average price, which typically reflects: significant selling pressure in the U.S. market, decreased risk appetite among investors, increased market risk aversion, or capital outflow.

According to Jinshi reports, the main theme of this week's market is dominated by changes in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. After Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's speech on Friday, the dollar quickly surged, closing at 99.69, up 0.85% for the week. Against the backdrop of rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, gold faced overall pressure, falling 3.24% for the week; spot silver dropped 3.82% this week.Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all in Beijing time): Monday is pending, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting will be held until September 1; Tuesday at 17:00, Eurozone August CPI data; Eurozone July unemployment rate; Tuesday at 22:00, U.S. August ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. July JOLTs job openings, U.S. July construction spending month-on-month; Tuesday is pending, the 2026 SCO member states heads of state council meeting will be held; Wednesday at 20:15, U.S. August ADP employment change; Wednesday at 22:00, U.S. July factory orders month-on-month; Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions; Thursday at 16:00, Eurozone August Services PMI final value; Thursday at 17:00, Eurozone July PPI month-on-month; Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 29, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will be interviewed; Friday at 03:00, 2026 FOMC voting member Harker will deliver an opening speech at the "Federal Reserve Community" event; Friday at 20:30, U.S. August unemployment rate, U.S. August seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, U.S. August average hourly earnings year-on-year and month-on-month.The highlight of next week's data will be the U.S. August employment report on Friday. This report is the last employment data before the September 16 interest rate meeting and is a key window to assess the policy path after Waller's hawkish stance. Previously, Nvidia's strong performance and an expected revenue growth of about 70% for the next fiscal year have reignited enthusiasm for AI trading. Dell (DELL.O) will release its second-quarter earnings report after the market closes on Tuesday (September 1), with the market expecting an adjusted earnings per share of $4.91, more than doubling from the same period last year. Broadcom (AVGO.O) will release its third-quarter earnings report for fiscal year 2026 after the market closes on Wednesday (September 2).

Bloomberg's chief economist Anna Wong stated that next week's non-farm payroll report may show weakness, with a certain probability of recording negative growth, which will have a critical impact on the Federal Reserve's policy path.She pointed out that if there are two consecutive negative non-farm data, there is no precedent in modern Federal Reserve history for raising interest rates under such circumstances.

StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada stated that Waller's speech on Friday night was considered quite hawkish. Waller mentioned in his forward guidance what the market expected him to say, namely that he does not believe in forward guidance, thus refusing to pre-commit to a rate hike in September. However, this did not stop the market from speculating that a rate hike might indeed be back on the table. Regarding inflation, Waller stated that anti-inflation remains a clear priority and elaborated on this in some detail, but he also added that he is confident that core inflation is moving towards the Federal Reserve's target.Overall, his speech was more hawkish than the market had anticipated. During Waller's speech at Jackson Hole, the market significantly repriced the September Federal Reserve decision, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike jumping from 30% to about 50%. Before the September Federal Reserve meeting, there will also be a non-farm payroll report and a CPI inflation report, along with some minor data releases. Under the new chair's leadership, the Federal Reserve has become more data-dependent. Given that the recent U.S. employment reports have consistently fallen short of expectations, and by a significant margin, any further signs of weakness could severely undermine market expectations for a rate hike in September.

Brian Armstrong posted on the X platform, stating that one of the simplest ways to explain cryptocurrency is: cryptocurrency offers faster, cheaper, and more efficient financial services. The traditional financial system was born around the 1970s and, in some cases, still operates on outdated mainframes to this day.This is also the reason why basic functions like weekend transfers or low-cost wire transfers are still not achievable. The United States needs to pass the Clarity Act to provide clear rules to guide the industry, rather than allowing outdated systems and uncertainty to prevail.

U.S. non-farm payroll benchmark change preliminary value for 2026 (not seasonally adjusted) -79,000, expected 183,000, previous value -862,000.

Chief Economist Fu Peng of New Fire Group published an article pointing out that although Nvidia's latest financial report has exceeded expectations for 15 consecutive quarters, the market has reacted lukewarmly to the financial data itself. Indicators such as stock price and options volatility show that market investors are currently more concerned about whether the free cash flow of the future index center can be smoothly delivered, and how long the momentum of AI growth can be maintained. These issues weigh more heavily than the performance of a single quarter's financial report, so even if this performance exceeds Wall Street's expectations by a few points, it does not change the denominator of the valuation.Fu Peng believes that Jensen Huang's statement during the conference call clearly indicated that "the inflection point for AI has arrived," which is essentially to reassure the market, aiming to strengthen market confidence in the formation of a closed-loop AI industry chain and alleviate concerns about over-investment. Investors should observe how long it takes for the market to digest this round of confidence boost, and how long the elevated expectations brought by Jensen Huang will last before fading. If the sentiment fades quickly, it indicates that the current typical market mentality is "no rabbit, no hawk," and the impact of manufacturers repeatedly reinforcing confidence in the market is gradually weakening, which can be observed from the duration of market fluctuations after each conference call.

Reto Cueni, Chief Economist of St. Gallen Group, stated in a report that the market may slightly raise expectations for an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's September meeting. However, he pointed out that the market still mostly expects that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates, and St. Gallen Group itself currently does not believe there will be a rate hike.Cueni stated, "At present, we still maintain the judgment that the Federal Reserve will not further raise interest rates in the second half of this year." According to LSEG data, the money market currently estimates a 65% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the September meeting.

UPBIT will list Polyswarm (NCT) on August 26 at 21:00 and support KRW trading. During the trading support period, the trading fee will be reduced from 0.05% to 0%, and the event will last until August 27 at 20:59.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "LoL Shifters vs Karmine Corp LEC Regular Season" on the prediction market Polymarket, the win rate of the "Odd" option in the sub-market "Total Kills Odd/Even" has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 51% an hour ago to the current 90.5% (a fluctuation of 39.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

U.S. President Trump stated that American farmers will no longer face tariffs.

According to Bloomberg, AI pioneer Fei-Fei Li stated that the tech industry needs to better explain the value of artificial intelligence to the public and warned that the growing anti-AI sentiment in the United States could pose risks to global AI development. In an interview with Bloomberg, Fei-Fei Li mentioned that tech practitioners need to strengthen communication with the public to showcase the positive impacts that AI technology can bring.She pointed out, "If we do not demonstrate a positive attitude and a positive direction for development, everyone will be affected." The United States has significant influence in the global tech sector, and if the U.S. cannot show a "positive attitude and development path for AI," it will ultimately affect the entire world.

Brian Armstrong posted on the X platform expressing appreciation for Paul S. Atkins and the SEC for their progress on token classification, calling it a long-awaited step towards modernizing the financial system. He stated that he has been advocating for clear cryptocurrency rules for years, and token classification is a necessary measure for the U.S. to maintain innovation.Brian Armstrong also expressed anticipation for the SEC to release the Innovation Exemption to promote on-chain trading of tokenized stocks. He mentioned that relevant progress is being made and that the CLARITY Act should be pushed through as soon as possible, moving the market on-chain before leading the way in other regions.

The blockchain protocol Harmony Protocol announced a complete network rollback due to a security vulnerability incident. Shard 0 and Shard 1 will roll back to block heights 92,730,034 and 94,978,278, corresponding to the state on August 11 at 23:25:37 UTC. The attacker exploited vulnerabilities in cross-shard receipt validation and quorum validation to mint ONE. A single wallet initiated 534 fraudulent transfers of 5 billion ONE each within 106 seconds, of which 477 were successful, illegally minting and transferring 2.385 trillion ONE, causing the price of ONE to drop by over 30%.Harmony has deployed emergency patch Mainnet v2026.1.1, suspended cross-chain bridge services, and requested exchanges to freeze related addresses. Over 99.9% of the counterfeit token flow has been tracked, and validators will regenerate blocks from the target block, permanently discarding 141,628 blocks during the rollback period, including 109,126 ordinary transactions and 315 staking transactions.

Harmony has released a rollback plan, intending to retain shard 0 block 92,730,034 and shard 1 block 94,978,278, both corresponding to the time of August 11, 2026, 23:25:37 UTC.Validators will use a replacement database, and the new client version will reject the relevant abnormal block hashes, subsequently continuing to produce blocks from the new block height.

Harmony Protocol released an event update stating that an unauthorized ONE minting incident occurred. Investigations show that the attacker exploited a cross-shard receipt replay vulnerability, allowing processed cross-shard receipts to be executed multiple times, and minted ONE in empty blocks.The team is currently verifying two sets of impact data: early analysis indicates that the first round of minting involved 4 billion ONE, while the latest on-chain reconstruction shows that approximately 3.01 trillion ONE were issued to four attacker wallets through six forged cross-shard transactions. Harmony Protocol confirmed the first round of minting of 4 billion ONE, generated through two empty block accounting transactions that produced 1 billion and 3 billion ONE respectively, of which 2.8 billion ONE were subsequently transferred to other attacker addresses.The team has fixed the cross-shard receipt verification and pre-staking committee quorum verification vulnerabilities and deployed Mainnet v2026.1.1. Bridge services have been suspended, and Harmony Protocol is coordinating with validators, trading platforms, and LayerZero to freeze related funds, preparing to roll back the network to block 92,730,034 before the attack occurred. Currently, Shard 0 has been paused at block 92,753,555, and the official RPC may return a 502 error as a result.

According to Harmony monitoring, Harmony stated that it is advancing the rollback plan and has reached an agreement with validators and exchanges on the specific path. The minting vulnerability fix has been activated, and a complete list of attacker wallets will be announced soon.Previously, the number of ONE tokens abnormally minted on the Harmony network had exceeded 30 trillion, involving 6 abnormal blocks.