basis

According to CoinDesk, as Bitcoin surged from about $62,000 to over $77,000 last week, liquidating approximately $3 billion in leveraged short positions, major crypto market makers such as Abraxas Capital, Fasanara Capital, and Wintermute quietly established short positions in perpetual contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars on Hyperliquid.Lookonchain data shows that the three institutions collectively hold short positions of 138,569 ETH (approximately $338 million) and 3,425 BTC (approximately $265 million); meanwhile, Abraxas Capital withdrew 73,872 ETH (approximately $173 million) from Binance in the past four days.This strategy is known as cash arbitrage or basis trading: traders hold spot positions while shorting an equivalent amount of assets through perpetual contracts to hedge against price volatility risks, primarily earning the funding rates paid by longs to shorts. In previous months, funding rates were long suppressed or even turned negative, but this month's rebound has quickly turned funding rates positive, reopening the arbitrage window. Aegis data shows that the 30-day average funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts on August 24 reached an annualized 6.7%, with a 7-day average of 8.7%; 21shares capital markets noted that basis trading for mainstream assets like Solana is also becoming lucrative.This trading has extended to regulated markets: Glassnode data shows that CME Bitcoin futures open interest has risen from about 87,000 BTC to 122,000 BTC.

The cryptocurrency protocol Ethena, which issued $4 billion in synthetic US dollars (USDe), announced plans to expand its basis trading strategy to stock perpetual contracts. According to Ethena's data, the open interest in stock perpetual contracts has grown tenfold to $6.2 billion since March. Over the past few months, the funding rates on Hyperliquid and Binance averaged approximately 14% and 17.5%, respectively, while the Bitcoin funding rate during the same period was only in the low single digits.Ethena pointed out that the average Bitcoin funding rate was 11% in 2024, 4.9% in 2025, and has dropped to 2.2% as of August 11 this year. In contrast, stock perpetual contracts had positive funding rates on 94% of trading days on Hyperliquid and 97% on Binance, with a median funding rate of 13.9%, while Bitcoin's was 3.9%. Co-founder Guy Young stated that stocks tend to rise in the long term, creating a continuous demand for leveraged longs to pay fees, and that the funding rate for stocks has almost no correlation with Bitcoin, providing USDe with a revenue source that relies less on the crypto market.The global stock market had a market capitalization of approximately $166.5 trillion in July, far exceeding the crypto market's approximately $2.2 trillion. This expansion is one of Ethena's initiatives to seek new revenue sources after the supply of USDe fell from a peak of about $15 billion to below $5 billion. Last week, it also announced a $1 billion financing arrangement with FalconX.

On August 25, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that his over-the-counter brokerage has begun inquiring about the demand for dollar lending. Although current interest rates remain low, he believes this may indicate that basis trading is returning, and mentioned that Ethena-related token ENA may benefit from this.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring on-chain data, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $56,730.83 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point rate hike." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding win rate for this subject is 72%.

The yield on the 20-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 10 basis points before the auction.

U.S. Democratic Senator Warren asked Treasury Secretary Basent to explain the basis for the Trump administration's intervention in the yen. In a letter dated August 13, Warren pointed out that the government has not provided detailed justification and has not disclosed how much money was used to purchase yen.Basent confirmed that the U.S. and Japan jointly intervened in the foreign exchange market for the first time since 1998 to support the yen, but did not specify the amount of funds.

PPP prediction market tool monitoring shows that before the non-farm data release, the probability of "Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September" on Polymarket has risen to 48%, up 5% in 24 hours, and up 24% for the month; the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September has fallen to 49%, down 21% for the month.The U.S. July non-farm payroll report will be released today at 20:30 Beijing time, with Wall Street institutions predicting a data range from 18,000 to 83,000, showing significant divergence. Market participants believe that if the final data significantly deviates from expectations, there could be severe fluctuations in the stock, bond, and dollar markets. The unemployment rate remains a core variable of concern for the Federal Reserve. Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave pointed out that if the data shows "everything is safe" in the labor market, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates up to three times this year, but the federal funds futures market is currently only pricing in one rate hike for the year.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 45.6%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 54.4%. By October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 33.5%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 52.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 14.5%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 41.6%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 58.4%. By October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 30.5%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 53.9%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 15.5%.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X platform that BlackRock announced a 1-for-3 reverse split for ETHA, with the price rising from $14 to $42 in October.This move will reduce trading costs from 7 basis points to about 2 basis points. The ETF issuer believes that a 7 basis point spread is an issue and is adjusting it to about 2 basis points, while cryptocurrency exchanges charge about 140 basis points.

According to Jinshi reports, the market pricing no longer bets on the Bank of England raising interest rates by 25 basis points this year.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged until September is 32.8%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 67.2%. By October, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 23.3%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 57.3%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 19.3%.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 26.4%, while the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 73.6%. By October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 19.9%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 62.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 17.9%.

Cryptocurrency analysis firm Glassnode stated that since February of this year, the 3-month Bitcoin futures basis yield has been below the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield. Historically, there has only been one similar prolonged period: from August 2022 to January 2023, which ultimately marked the cycle bottom.

According to Jinshi reports, Dong Ximiao, chief economist of Zhailian, expects that a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates may be implemented in the third quarter. If the momentum for economic recovery weakens marginally in the second half of the year, a timely reduction of the policy interest rate by 10 to 20 basis points cannot be ruled out.Regarding the reserve requirement ratio, there is still room for a reduction of 25 to 50 basis points within the year, with the implementation window possibly arranged during peak bond supply or periods of tight liquidity. The People's Bank of China will increasingly utilize structural monetary policy tools to strengthen the regulation of market liquidity.

According to Jinshi reports, CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 36.6%, while the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 63.4%. By October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 26.9%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 56.3%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 16.9%.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, the "Federal Reserve September Decision" event is currently among the hottest trades on the prediction market Polymarket, with a cumulative pool size reaching 817 million dollars. The option with the highest market consensus is "raise interest rates by 25 basis points," corresponding to a winning probability of approximately 52.5%.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $60,865.39 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's September decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point rate cut." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding win rate for this subject is 96.42%.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket market. A large whale invested $202,153.4 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's July decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point rate hike." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 73.58%.

According to on-chain data monitored by Catcher Predict, significant capital movements are predicted in the Polymarket. A large whale invested $62,676.4 in a single transaction regarding the "Federal Reserve's July decision" event, targeting a "25 basis point increase." Based on the current transaction price, the latest corresponding winning probability for this subject is 26.39%.