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Grayscale's research director Zach Pandl stated that in the context of rising inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve may maintain a high interest rate policy for a long time, which will have three core impacts on the cryptocurrency market. He believes that as the U.S. CPI approaches 4%, the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has almost no room for interest rate cuts, and the market currently expects the first rate cut to be delayed until September 2027. Grayscale pointed out that long-term high interest rates will put pressure on "currency devaluation trades" such as Bitcoin. Since Bitcoin, like gold, is a non-yielding asset, higher real interest rates will increase the opportunity cost of holding dollar-denominated assets. However, it remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects and believes that regulatory benefits such as the CLARITY Act can partially offset the related pressures. In addition, it believes that a high interest rate environment will accelerate the tokenization of fixed income assets. Currently, the yields on dollar-denominated fixed income products are higher than those of most DeFi yields; for example, the USDC lending rate on Aave is about 3.6%, while the yield on short-term corporate bonds is about 4.5%. Grayscale also stated that stablecoin issuers will benefit from high interest rates. Since the GENIUS Act prohibits stablecoins from paying interest to users, issuers can retain the income from reserve assets. It estimates that for every 25 basis point increase in short-term rates, Circle's revenue will increase by approximately $190 million.

According to CoinDesk, the crypto platform Bullish (BLSH) announced its performance for the first quarter of 2026, with adjusted revenue of $92.8 million, below analysts' expectations of $94.9 million; adjusted EBITDA was $35.1 million, also below the expected $38 million; the net loss reached $604.9 million, equivalent to a loss of $3.85 per share, with the loss widening compared to the same period last year. Due to sluggish digital asset trading activity, BLSH's stock price fell by 7.9% in pre-market trading, reporting at $38.51.

The Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator from CryptoQuant has recently turned green for the first time since 2023. On-chain analyst Julio Moreno stated that this usually indicates the market is switching from a bear market structure to a recovery phase. Moreno pointed out that historically, when this indicator exits the bear market zone and enters the "Early Bull" range, it often means that the worst adjustment phase has ended and the market structure begins to repair. However, several analysts emphasize that this indicator is more suitable for judging market phase transitions rather than precise trading signals. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, stated that the greatest significance of such indicators lies in determining "whether Bitcoin has stopped behaving like a bear market asset," and real confirmation still requires sustained demand, improved liquidity, and prices stabilizing at key levels. Currently, Bitcoin has not effectively broken through the $82,000 resistance level. Although it has rebounded about 35% from a low of around $60,000 in February this year, the market remains in a tug-of-war state. Moreno believes that to truly confirm a bull market signal, Bitcoin needs to digest some current "weakness" indicators while facing pressure from a neutral greed-fear index and a complex macro environment. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Bitcoin has completed a phase of bottoming around $60,000 this year. He stated that once it breaks through $90,000, the market may enter an "explosive phase," targeting the previous high of $126,000. Meanwhile, some analysts also remind that on-chain indicators like MVRV and NUPL are essentially more aligned with a "behavioral cycle framework" and should not be seen as absolute predictive tools.

Despite Bitcoin's pullback of about 2.5% since reaching a peak of $82,800, market analysts generally believe that its overall upward structure remains intact and has re-entered the "full bull market momentum" range. Swiss wealth management firm Swissblock pointed out that Bitcoin has re-entered the price expansion range, the Bull Market Support Band has turned into support, and the 21-week EMA has crossed above the 20-week SMA, with the trend structure turning bullish again. Currently, Bitcoin's price is consolidating around $80,000, where the "real market average" and short-term holding costs constitute key support, while the realized price around $85,000 forms an upper pressure zone.Whale and institutional-led spot buying are strengthening, while the proportion of derivative speculation is decreasing. Similar structures historically correspond to sustainable upward trends. If this indicator continues to maintain positive values, it may further drive Bitcoin to continue its upward cycle. In terms of liquidity, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has rebounded from historical lows to a key range, indicating that stablecoin funds are flowing back into the market. This signal has corresponded to phase bottom rebounds in mid-2021, 2022, and mid-2023. Meanwhile, the Binance stablecoin supply ratio oscillation indicator (SSR Oscillator) has risen to 2.8, reaching a 12-month high, showing a significant increase in stablecoin purchasing power.On-chain activity is also strengthening. Bitcoin's daily transaction volume has increased by 116%, reaching 831,400 transactions, a 20-month high; the number of active addresses has increased by 7.1% to 707,700, and total transaction fees have grown by 37% to $279,300, indicating a significant increase in network usage activity. In terms of funding structure, the 90-day spot Taker CVD has turned into a sustained positive value, indicating that spot buying is dominating the market. Glassnode data shows that this indicator has further risen to $62 million compared to a week ago, reflecting an increase in market proactive buying sentiment.In summary, the price structure, liquidity indicators, and on-chain demand all indicate that Bitcoin is currently still in a "strong trend expansion phase," and the bull market momentum has not yet ended.

According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV, the Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator has turned into an "early bull market" signal for the first time since March 2023. Historically, this signal has appeared after 2019 and early 2023, indicating that the worst adjustment phase has passed and the market structure is beginning to recover. However, there was one exception in March 2022 when the indicator also entered the early bull market zone, but the price was subsequently rejected, confirming a local top rather than a new bull market.Regarding the current signal for May 2026, the analyst believes that Bitcoin is no longer behaving as a deeply bearish asset, and the recovery of the 30-day moving average indicates that market momentum is improving. However, several other market indicators have shown signs of fatigue, making this signal less clear than a classic early cycle confirmation. The analyst tends to believe that this is more likely a local top rather than the beginning of a new bull market, unless the price strongly confirms this trend in the future.

As the first CEX platform to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that the overall market expectation for the "WTI Crude Oil May Price" related prediction event remains strong. Among them, the probability of WTI crude oil prices exceeding $110 is 51%, the probability of exceeding $105 is 67%, and the probability of exceeding $100 is as high as 94%. Overall, the market maintains an optimistic outlook on the short-term trend of oil prices, with funding expectations continuously leaning towards an upward direction.Gate's performance in the Polymarket partnership channel continues to lead, currently securing a spot in the top three, with a significant increase in user participation scale, reflecting the growing activity and engagement depth of platform users in the prediction market. Users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha, and participate in event predictions using USDT in their exchange accounts. This integration marks a key step for Gate in merging the crypto trading ecosystem with the prediction market, providing users with a diversified market experience from expectation judgment to trading participation.In addition, Gate will launch the "Polymarket 100 USDT Battle God Challenge" social media event from May 11, 15:00 to May 20, 15:00 (UTC+8), where users can participate in prediction market trading with a maximum of 100 USDT and compete for the earnings leaderboard and quality content creator rewards by sharing profit reports, trading strategies, and review content. The total prize pool of the event includes 66 content reward slots and a 1,000 USDT Battle God earnings prize pool.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest blog post that the Bitcoin bull market truly began with the outbreak of war between the U.S. and Iran on February 28. AI capital expenditures, war spending, and countries' investments in physical infrastructure to ensure supply chain security will drive the reckless expansion of fiat credit, and Bitcoin will continue to benefit.Hayes pointed out that Bitcoin has rebounded from a low of $60,000 earlier this year, reiterating that breaking through the previous high of $126,000 is "inevitable." Hayes believes that the scale of this round of AI capital expenditures is unprecedented, with central banks like the Federal Reserve printing more money. The declining trust in dollar assets will shift towards investments in physical infrastructure and commodity reserves, further driving fiat expansion.He expects that once Bitcoin breaks through $90,000, the momentum will accelerate, and he will raise the risk exposure of Maelstrom's portfolio to the maximum. Besides Hyperliquid and Zcash, Hayes' next most favored altcoin is NEAR, which he will explain in subsequent articles regarding how its privacy narrative and Intent architecture create positive cash flow for the protocol. He concluded by stating that while it is currently a bull market, there will eventually be a time to sell, but that time is not now.

According to 10x Research analysis, since mid-January, the total gamma exposure of Bitcoin has remained negative, currently reaching -3.2 billion dollars at the strike price of 82,000 dollars. In a negative gamma environment, market makers are forced to trade in the direction of the trend, accelerating buying during price increases and accelerating selling during price decreases, which exacerbates price volatility.As the options expiration on May 29 and June 26 approaches, the negative gamma suppression effect is expected to gradually dissipate, and the downward bias of Bitcoin will subsequently ease. Currently, the market demand for call options is significantly higher than for put options, and institutions expect that market sentiment will shift from bearish to bullish at that time.

According to the official announcement from OneBullEx, the platform's May Member Day event has officially started. This time, it continues to offer a 1:1 exchange of OBE points for USDT, with a prize pool reaching 300,000 USDT. The event will take place on May 11 from 11:00 to 20:00 (GMT+4), divided into 10 exchange sessions, with approximately 1,500 exchange slots available for each session, on a first-come, first-served basis, until all slots are filled.It is introduced that users need to consume 20 points for each exchange participation. After completing the exchange, the corresponding USDT rewards will be directly credited to their accounts. Users participating in this event must have at least 500 points in their accounts, and the specific amount credited and participation rules are subject to what is displayed on the event page.It is reported that OneBullEx has designated the 11th of each month as a fixed Member Day, continuously strengthening user participation and platform activity through mechanisms such as point exchanges, task incentives, and community interactions. As the May Member Day continues, the 1:1 exchange of OBE points for USDT is further entering a periodic operation, and Member Day is gradually becoming an important benefit scenario within the OneBullEx points system.

BTC IV 39%, ETH IV 55%; ETH Skew is at a critical turning point------the mid to long term stabilizes at +2 to +5, while the short term has repeatedly dropped to -10 but quickly returned to zero. If ETH stabilizes above $2,400, the short term turning positive will resonate with the mid to long term, confirming a shift from event hedging to upward chasing. The BTC/ETH GEX Term Structure shows that the near-month Gamma has clearly turned positive, with ETF inflows and Call accumulation driving a positive Gamma slow bull structure------under a Long Gamma environment for market makers, the short term is inclined towards high-level fluctuations and slow increases, with IV retreating. Bull Call Spread and selling Put strategies are dominant, but the far month retains negative Gamma reflecting ongoing tail hedging demand. In terms of block trades, 1,001.8 BTC 5/8 expiration $88K Calls were traded, and 14,288 ETH 5/15 expiration $2,600 Calls were traded, indicating clear bullish signals from institutions.Gate has launched the "Rising Star Trader Support Program" for options, with a total prize pool of $25,000 USDT. During the event, users can earn multiple rewards through options trading, inviting friends, and participating in KOL incubation camps: the highest reward for meeting trading volume standards can reach $3,000, and the highest commission for inviting can reach $2,000. Meanwhile, the platform also provides high-quality traders with 1-on-1 options hedging training, exclusive rate discounts, and traffic support, helping traders enhance their strategy capabilities and market influence, and providing a more competitive trading environment and growth opportunities for professional options users.

Bitcoin bulls have high expectations for the year-end options expiring on December 25, involving about $6 billion in funds. Since the year’s low of $60,130 on February 6, the BTC price has risen by 33%, which has largely driven the return of bullish sentiment in the market. However, the large number of call (buy) options with target prices pointing to $115,000 and above has also raised questions about whether the bulls are overly optimistic.The Deribit trading platform holds a 92% market share in December Bitcoin options open interest, reaching $5.5 billion. On Deribit, put (sell) options have decreased by 56% compared to call options, as crypto traders have traditionally favored bullish positions, with the put-call ratio typically skewed. Even so, the open interest for call options at $115,000 and above amounts to $1.85 billion, which is still a considerable size. However, the number of put options at $55,000 and below is also significant, with total open interest of $1 billion. This indicates that both sides are viewed as having a similar proportion of bets deemed unlikely to materialize, each accounting for about 50% of their respective open interest segments. If the bulls are seen as overly optimistic, the bears also seem to be equally extreme in their pessimism.The options skew indicator more clearly reflects professional traders' comfort levels regarding upside and downside price risks. Put options are trading at a 9% premium relative to equivalent call options, indicating moderate concern about Bitcoin's downside price volatility. Under neutral conditions, the skew indicator should be between -6% and +6%. According to derivatives indicators, investor optimism has not been materially affected during Bitcoin's rise to $80,000. Ultimately, the $1.85 billion in call options for December should not be interpreted as a signal of excessive confidence from the bulls.

Solana's official tweet stated that Bullish has tokenized its entire cap table by putting 151 million shares on-chain to Solana after completing the acquisition of Equiniti.Bullish CEO Thomas Farley announced this news at the Consensus 2026 conference and demonstrated a real-time wallet-to-wallet share transfer live using the Phantom wallet.

On-chain data platform Glassnode shows that Bitcoin whales' net long positions on Hyperliquid have risen to a new high for 2026. The data indicates that whales have been continuously increasing their long positions recently, continuing the trend of going long after last month's Bitcoin price breakout. Currently, the total positions of whales on the platform are approximately $3.5 billion, with longs slightly outnumbering shorts.Analysis suggests that the movements of Hyperliquid whales are often seen as a market sentiment indicator; the current overall liquidation scale is relatively low and mainly concentrated in short positions, reflecting a bullish market atmosphere.

10x Research stated that although Bitcoin trading volume remains low and funding rates are negative, some early traders have already positioned themselves and achieved about a 10% return. They believe that many traders are still waiting for macro catalysts or think that the bear market has not yet ended, but this misunderstands how the Bitcoin market operates. "The end of a bear market is often not triggered by a single piece of news, but rather by improvements in indicators, changes in risk-reward, and the fact that most participants have not yet entered."10x Research indicated that they turned bullish a month ago. Although market sentiment has improved somewhat, position follow-up is still insufficient. They also remind that there are still risks in the current market, and reasonable hedging and position management remain important.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the cryptocurrency trading platform Bullish will acquire the share transfer agency Equiniti for $4.2 billion (including debt). The acquisition of Equiniti is expected to close in January next year, pending regulatory approval.Equiniti provides services to nearly 3,000 listed companies, including Berkshire Hathaway and Moody's.

Lin Chen, the Head of Asia-Pacific Business at Deribit, posted on platform X that a certain options trader bought 800 BTC in a bull spread, purchasing $80,000 in call options and selling $85,000 in put options, as the trader is optimistic about BTC prices rising at the beginning of this month.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, posted on the X platform stating that Bitcoin has currently surpassed the 7-day and 30-day moving averages, with both short-term and medium-term trends remaining bullish. In the past week, it has risen by 1.1%. Continuous buying by institutions and large enterprises increasing their Bitcoin holdings has further boosted market confidence. However, influenced by the historical pattern of "selling upon good news," the market subsequently experienced a brief consolidation.Markus Thielen's analysis suggests that with Bitcoin's dominance maintaining above 60%, some altcoins are quietly bottoming out under fundamental catalysts, particularly privacy coins and RWA infrastructure-related projects that are worth paying close attention to. Additionally, the White House advisor's hints at upcoming announcements regarding national strategic reserves and other market news are reinforcing bullish sentiment.