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According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin unspent transaction output (UTXO) data shows that the proportion of loss transactions to profit transactions in the current market has dropped to the lowest level of this bear market cycle, indicating that investors are entering a clear "surrender" phase.This indicator has previously triggered multiple times at historical cycle bottom areas. The last similar low occurred during the mid-2023 deep phase of the bear market, when the Bitcoin price briefly fell to around $26,000. Analysts believe that such phases usually correspond to extremely low market sentiment, with long-term investors gradually starting to accumulate again.Darkfost pointed out that this is the first time this signal has been triggered since the start of the current correction, indicating that the number of UTXOs sold at a loss is significantly increasing, reflecting a broader sell-off and surrender behavior that has begun. He also added that the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders' Bitcoin is gradually entering negative territory.

According to CoinDesk, Binance founder Zhao Changpeng stated that the significant decline in the crypto market in the first half of 2026 does not have a single cause. Geopolitical tensions, investors shifting funds to AI, and the typical four-year cycle of crypto may collectively lead to the continued decline of Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Bitcoin reached a historical high of over $126,000 last October and has since fallen by about 50%. At the beginning of this year, Bitcoin opened near $89,000, briefly rose to just above $96,000, and then dropped to around $60,000.In the long term, the crypto industry will continue to develop, and the demand for fintech will increase as the number of transactions continues to rise, so they are not concerned about the industry itself or short-term price fluctuations. They stated that emerging industries like AI are absorbing "hot money" from the crypto sector, but in the long run, this could be a positive factor. When discussing prediction markets, Zhao Changpeng mentioned that the rapid growth of prediction markets as tools for price discovery and liquidity is a good thing for the public.Regarding regulation, Zhao Changpeng stated that separate bills like the U.S. Clarity Act are important but more tactical matters that will not determine the long-term growth of the crypto industry. He hopes the Clarity Act can pass and believes that if U.S. legislation is delayed, other countries may take the lead in advancing rule-making.Zhao Changpeng also mentioned that if the U.S. Democratic Party regains control of at least one chamber of Congress after the midterm elections, there may be a review of Trump's support for the crypto industry and his pardons for crypto executives. Zhao Changpeng stated he "has nothing to hide" and is willing to cooperate if relevant parties seek information. When discussing political influence, Zhao Changpeng said he tries to stay away from U.S. politics but believes that any anti-crypto individuals may now lose a significant number of votes.

Crypto analyst Lark Davis pointed out that the current reading of the Bitcoin Puell Multiple indicator shows that the market is nearing or is in the bottom area of this cycle. This indicator measures miners' profitability by tracking the ratio of daily miner revenue to the 365-day average. Historically, when miner income remains low and they are forced to sell BTC to cover operating costs, it often corresponds to cycle lows.Davis stated that although the indicator has not yet reached the green oversold zone, signals of pressure on miners have already appeared, which historically usually marks the beginning of the end of a bear market. He also noted that the price signals in this cycle are overall milder compared to historical patterns. Davis believes that whether $59,000 can hold as the low point of this cycle will be revealed in the coming months, but current signs are becoming clearer.

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley posted on the X platform, "In the 1990s, the internet was just emerging. Almost every idea seemed feasible. Hundreds of companies reached valuations of 500 million to 1 billion dollars based on these possibilities. By the early 21st century, that optimism faded. There were no longer hundreds of companies competing. Instead, a few companies that truly proved their worth thrived. Because they succeeded with demonstrable value, they operated longer and were larger in scale than in the previous cycle. The cryptocurrency sector is also undergoing a similar transformation. The number of winners will decrease, but the winners will stand out due to their demonstrable value. Their scale will be larger, and their operating time will be longer than people expect."

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin may have entered a new accumulation zone, but the potential structural bottom of this cycle is still around $48,000. Currently, the seller risk ratio after Bitcoin's adjustment first entered the red zone when it fell below $60,000, indicating that the volume of loss supply has begun to exceed the volume of profit supply, and the unrealized pressure on holders has significantly increased.On the other hand, the Cumulative Value Destruction Day (CVDD) valuation model shows that the structural bottom of Bitcoin's current cycle is around $48,000. Axel Adler Jr. summarized that historically similar zones often correspond to market capitulation phases and bottom formation processes, such as the cycle lows in 2019 and 2023. However, it remains to be seen whether the price can hold the $60,000 area, while the seller risk ratio smooth line continues to rise. Although the price of Bitcoin has rebounded to around $66,000, the market is still at the lower end of the valuation range, and caution is still needed regarding the final confirmation process of the cycle bottom.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Bitcoin Sell-Side Risk Ratio (SSRR) entered the red zone for the first time when BTC dropped to $60,000, with the volume of losses exceeding the volume of profits, reflecting the deep pressure on holders. Historically, when this indicator enters the red zone, it often coincides with the formation of a bottom.Meanwhile, the CVDD valuation model shows that the structural bottom is around $48,300, a level that has almost never been closed below in Bitcoin's history. Currently, Bitcoin has rebounded to $66,000, and the smoothed SSRR has begun to turn upward. Analysts believe that $60,000 is a behavioral pressure zone, while $48,000 is the boundary for structural risk. The subsequent confirmation of recovery signals is when the smoothed SSRR exits the red zone and the price stabilizes above $60,000; the main risk is the emergence of new red signals at lower levels and testing the $48,000 support. Overall, the market is gradually shifting towards an accumulation pattern.

According to Jinshi reports, Krishna Bhimavarapu, an economist at State Street Global Advisors in the Asia-Pacific region, stated that supported by enhanced economic resilience and rising inflation, central banks around the world may be entering a phase of synchronized interest rate hikes. Bhimavarapu pointed out that the Bank of Japan seems ready to raise interest rates to the psychological key point of 1% and may hint at a second rate hike this year. In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia appears to be pausing interest rate hikes due to weakening economic growth and labor market momentum, but the inflation issue remains unresolved, potentially leaving room for at least one more rate hike. Bhimavarapu expects that the Federal Reserve may shift to a hawkish stance by the end of this week.

According to BBX data, last week institutional research qualitatively shifted historically, with Bitcoin reserve companies accelerating deleveraging. The core dynamics are as follows:Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered PLC (LSE: $STAN), released a research report on June 12, officially declaring that "the crypto winter is likely over." He believes that the $59,000 level for Bitcoin has formed the low point of this bear market cycle, marking a significant turning point in market sentiment. Kendrick stated that a large amount of IPO allocation funds will flow back into risk assets after the SpaceX IPO, and the funding flow for Bitcoin spot ETFs is expected to achieve a structural reversal after this adjustment, combined with the continuous expansion of corporate reserve demand, supporting his view with three factors. This is the strongest "bear end" qualitative statement from institutional research so far in 2026— the last similar clear statement came from the same team at Standard Chartered in December 2023, after which Bitcoin confirmed a breakthrough of historical highs in 2024.Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: $NAKA) (Nashville, a Bitcoin operating company, also operating Bitcoin Magazine) disclosed a series of balance sheet optimization measures through an official press release on BusinessWire on June 11: selling approximately 600 BTC and Bitcoin-related derivatives, netting about $48 million, to repay a $45 million loan to Kraken (Payward Interactive); the remaining loan balance is $165 million USDT (down from the original $210 million), restructured under new terms: $60 million USDT maturing on December 4, 2026, and $105 million USDT extended to June 30, 2027; the new interest rate is reduced to 7.75% (previously 8%), requiring the maintenance of 2,000 BTC as collateral in a Bitwise Asset Management custodial account, saving approximately $4 million in annual financing costs; the board also approved a $25 million stock repurchase plan (as of December 31, 2026). After the transaction, the company holds approximately 4,467 BTC (approximately $284 million, estimated at recent prices); the company previously completed a 1-for-40 reverse stock split at the end of May and received confirmation from Nasdaq on June 9 that it has restored compliance with the minimum $1 share price requirement; after the news was announced, $NAKA briefly rose about 20% during trading.

According to Cointelegraph, the latest research from Galaxy Digital indicates that due to a lack of speculative activity, the Bitcoin cycle low may occur at higher price levels than in previous bear markets. The analysis suggests that the potential bottom is between $62,000 and the actual Bitcoin price of $53,600.Galaxy's research director Alex Thorn analyzed each top and bottom of the Bitcoin cycle and noted that the four-year cycle is closely related to Bitcoin's historical trends. The decline from peak to trough has steadily narrowed across market cycles, decreasing from early drops of 85% and 84% to 77% in 2022 and 51% in 2026. The current top signal for October 2025 is weak, with only 2 out of 11 traditional top indicators signaling, while the widely watched Pi Cycle Top indicator has failed to trigger for the first time.The market capitalization to realized value ratio (MVRV) for Bitcoin peaked at 2.29, while this ratio ranged from 2.93 to 5.91 in previous cycles. The report also found that several key bottom signals are still missing. Currently, only 4 out of 13 indicators have been triggered, and most stronger signals have yet to appear. Thorn pointed out that based on the current cost price of $53,600, Galaxy estimates the fundamental bottom range to be between $40,000 and $46,000. A more severe "washout" scenario points to $30,000 to $37,000, while a more gradual decline may maintain around $51,000 to $54,000.

According to CoinDesk, Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoffrey Kendrick stated in a report on Friday that the cryptocurrency market has reached the final bottom of this monetary cycle. The cycle low for Bitcoin is currently set at $59,000, down 53% from the historical high of $126,000 reached on October 6. Kendrick expects that by the end of this year, the price of Ethereum will reach $4,000, and the price of Bitcoin will reach $100,000.He pointed out that there are two core factors supporting this market rebound. First, in recent weeks, Bitcoin spot ETFs have faced the most severe sell-off since their inception. Since the second week of May, total redemptions have exceeded $5.72 billion. He also noted that it is rumored that ETF holders have been liquidating their positions to free up funds to participate in SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO). Kendrick stated that SpaceX's IPO this Friday could end the current selling pressure.Second, if the G7-related peace agreement reached between the U.S. and Iran is true, it would help prevent oil prices from skyrocketing. A decline in oil prices would suppress the rising U.S. Treasury yields, thereby alleviating the macro pressure on the cryptocurrency market. To confirm that the market bottom is solid, Kendrick will closely monitor in the coming days: the news on Monday about Strategy (MSTR) increasing its Bitcoin holdings this week; whether the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF can restore net inflows this Friday.

According to The Block, K33's latest report shows that currently over 50% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin is in a state of unrealized loss, a significant increase from 30% a month ago.K33's research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that although Bitcoin typically bottoms out within a few weeks after reaching an unrealized loss of over 50% (often requiring a final wave of decline), the price increase of BTC within a year after this signal appears ranges from 69% to 359%. Currently, Bitcoin has also touched the 200-week moving average and is accompanied by an "extreme fear" sentiment, consistent with historical bottom characteristics.K33 maintains the view that $60,000 may be the low point of this cycle, or at least a highly attractive long-term accumulation range.

Trader Bob Loukas stated that Bitcoin is still in a "very standard four-year cycle," and the current price trend is not significantly different from previous cycles. Many people say "this time is different," but he believes this round of the Bitcoin cycle still fits the typical four-year cycle framework. He pointed out that the current cycle has entered week 44, and the cycle low window usually appears around week 46 within a time range of about 10%.Loukas mentioned that the midpoint of the past four-year cycles was around $53,000, which could become an important support and resistance level, and may serve as a potential buying position near the bear market low. He also stated that Bitcoin's price may re-enter the price discovery phase in 2028.QCP Capital stated in their latest market report on Monday that BTC is currently in a narrow psychological range, with buying interest around $60,000, but the options market remains defensively positioned, and macro risks are still affecting market sentiment.

Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl released a research report stating that, based on multiple on-chain valuation indicators, Bitcoin's current price is below its long-term average, indicating that it is undervalued, but the degree of undervaluation is not as significant as in previous cycle lows such as after the FTX collapse.

Zach Pandl, the head of research at Grayscale, stated that on-chain valuation metrics indicate that Bitcoin is currently undervalued, but it has not reached the cheapness of previous cycle bottoms. He noted that this bear market may be shallower than past ones due to the smaller gains in the previous bull market, along with improvements in market structure such as ETP availability, wealth platform deployment, and institutional adoption.Zach believes investors can focus on two major short-term catalysts: the progress of the Senate's "Clarity Act" and whether leveraged Bitcoin holders can stabilize their balance sheets. He remains optimistic about the "Clarity Act," but predicts that market signals show a low probability of the bill passing. Pandl believes the current price levels provide long-term investors with an opportunity to accumulate positions in batches, while short-term traders may wait for developments on the bill.

According to The Block, Bernstein analysts stated that despite a cumulative net outflow of $2.6 billion from Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2026, the long-term argument for Bitcoin as a store of value has not changed.Since the beginning of this year, the net inflow into ETFs and corporate treasuries has been approximately $12 billion (about $60 billion in 2025), with corporate treasuries being the main driving force. Glassnode data shows that 61% of the circulating Bitcoin supply has been idle for over a year.The accumulation of corporate funds is the main force offsetting ETF liquidations, with Strategy raising $7.5 billion through STRC preferred stock products to acquire approximately 100,000 Bitcoins, and its $53 billion Bitcoin position can cover more than 30 times STRC's annual cash dividends of $1.2 billion.Analysts added that although Bitcoin inflows have slowed, capital is shifting towards real-world asset (RWA) tokenization-related infrastructure, with platforms like Hyperliquid seeing significant growth in trading volume in tokenized stocks and commodities markets.

According to CoinDesk, Ethereum co-founder and ConsenSys CEO Joe Lubin stated that the recent controversies surrounding budget cuts at the Ethereum Foundation (EF), employee departures, and leadership adjustments do not indicate that the organization is in crisis, but rather represent a necessary evolution in its development process.The Ethereum Foundation should focus on maintaining the core technology and values of the network, preserving a "trustworthy neutrality" position, while responsibilities such as ecological expansion, institutional collaboration, and commercial promotion should be undertaken by other organizations to avoid potential conflicts of interest between protocol development and commercial interests.In response to external doubts about the direction of the foundation's reforms, Lubin noted that many criticisms stem from misunderstandings of the foundation's role. He pointed out that the Ethereum Foundation is promoting further separation between protocol governance and commercial operations, and the future Ethereum ecosystem will not be dominated by a single entity, but rather multiple organizations will take on ecological construction responsibilities in different areas, collectively driving network development. This model differs from some blockchain projects that concentrate protocol development and business strategy within the same entity, aligning more closely with Ethereum's decentralized development philosophy.Regarding market views that "Ethereum is declining," Lubin denied this. He stated that in recent years, artificial intelligence has replaced the cryptocurrency industry as the most关注的技术叙事 in the capital market, leading to a shift in funding and investment focus, but this does not mean that Ethereum has lost its competitiveness.On the contrary, after years of scaling and infrastructure development, Ethereum is gradually becoming capable of supporting the next wave of large-scale adoption and is expected to usher in a new growth cycle in the future.