Galaxy Research: The conditional market begins to expand, affecting the market approaching the mainnet
Galaxy Research released a research report on October 15, categorizing decision markets and impact markets as conditional markets. These two types of conditional trading settle only when specific outcomes occur, and decision markets also settle on clear and binding results. Unlike prediction markets, conditional markets are not limited to binary, all-or-nothing structures; they trade real assets and their prices rather than synthetic probability contracts, with the byproduct being the impact of events on asset values rather than occurrence probabilities. The agency referred to prediction markets as the zero version of event-driven finance, with a large number of experiments emerging over the past 18 months, and new infrastructure pushing it beyond prediction markets.The ownership token-based issuance platform Umia, aimed at EVM-compatible chains, launched in September, expanding decision markets from being primarily limited to Solana, where MetaDAO was the first to scale binary pass or fail markets, to multi-outcome markets that can price proposal parameters. A deposit of stablecoins or DAO tokens can simultaneously convert into positions covering each outcome, with only winning market trades ultimately settling. Currently, 22 DAO treasuries fully governed by decision markets hold a total of $50.5 million, with MetaDAO accounting for 21 of them and 78% of the assets; the stablecoin portion is $35.8 million, with MetaDAO holding 82%. The fundraising for the market-governed DAO issuance platform by MetaDAO was approximately 11 months prior to this research report. Umia extends the issuable chains to Solana or EVM, which together account for about 92% of TVL by chain type.