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Viewpoint: The Bessen effect makes it difficult for Bitcoin to return to a true bull market; the main reason for the price increase is short covering

Bloomberg reporter Emily Nicolle stated that Bitcoin recently rose 23% in a single week, marking the largest weekly increase in over three years and ending a period of stagnation since summer. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen proposed expanding the scale of long-term Treasury bond repurchases, prompting market concerns about U.S. debt and dollar depreciation, which drove funds toward alternative assets like Bitcoin. However, after Bitcoin surpassed $80,000, it has stabilized again, and this catalyst alone is insufficient to bring the market back to a true bull market state.Nicolle pointed out that the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar and inflation still lacks sustainability. After Trump reiterated threats of tariffs against China last October, Bitcoin fell over 12% within 24 hours, while gold reached an all-time high during the same period. Since 2026, gold has cumulatively risen over 7%, while Bitcoin, even accounting for the recent rebound, has still fallen nearly 10%. She believes that the simultaneous rise of gold and Bitcoin last week does not prove that both have the same safe-haven properties, as much of the current crypto market rally is driven by short sellers being forced to cover their positions. Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor called on traders to continue buying Bitcoin during the rise, but his company did not increase its holdings accordingly.In addition, the CLARITY cryptocurrency market structure bill remains stalled due to disagreements over ethical provisions, with the Senate expected to reconsider it by mid-September, leaving limited time before the midterm elections in November. Bitcoin has yet to establish a stable and convincing value narrative, and in daily payments, users still prefer to use stablecoins or cash.

first_img Tomasz Tunguz: AI infrastructure exhibits a long tail effect, with bottlenecks gradually transmitting and driving up costs

Venture capitalist Tomasz Tunguz pointed out that the narrative of AI infrastructure resembles a slow relay race, with bottlenecks sequentially transmitting from GPUs to memory, CPUs, and storage, each link freezing the supply chain of the next for years and locking in higher baseline costs. At the beginning of 2023, the GPU shock caused H100 rental prices to exceed $9 per hour, and server shipments fell by 22%; subsequently, manufacturers shifted capacity to HBM, leading to an 80% quarterly increase in enterprise SSD prices and over a 60% rise in DRAM.By the end of 2025, the workload of intelligent agents will push the CPU to GPU ratio to about 1:1, with the average price of server CPUs rising by 27% year-on-year; in 2026, nearline HDD annual capacity will be sold out. The construction cost of data centers has risen to about $20 billion per gigawatt, with orders for long-cycle equipment such as transformers and turbines scheduled as far out as 2029 to 2031.Tunguz referred to this as the long whip effect in the hardware sector: years of manufacturing delays amplify downstream demand shocks upstream, and when pressure is relieved at a certain bottleneck, it will be delayed in transmitting to the next link, with transformers scheduled for delivery in 2027 to 2028, NAND wafer fabs, and turbine production lines potentially facing the risk of overcapacity.

Bitget Research Institute: If Bitcoin effectively breaks through the resistance level of 83,000, it may open up upward space to 90,000

Bitget Research Institute Chief Analyst Ryan Lee stated that driven by multiple favorable factors such as the continuous net inflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF for five days, large-scale short liquidations, the U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases leading to a drop in yields and a weakening dollar, as well as signals from the Trump administration indicating a pro-crypto regulatory stance, Bitcoin has broken through the $80,000 mark, reaching a new high in recent months, with market sentiment rapidly shifting from "fear" to "greed."He pointed out that BTC is expected to stabilize above $78,000 in the short term and oscillate around that area, with key support levels in the $74,000--$76,000 range and primary resistance at $83,000. If it breaks through effectively, it may further challenge the $85,000--$90,000 levels.Regarding Ethereum, benefiting from the market's increased risk appetite driven by BTC, simultaneous ETF fund inflows, and a rebound in DeFi activity, Ryan noted that ETH's short-term average price could reach $2,600--$2,800. If it breaks through the $2,650--$2,700 resistance level, it may further push towards the $3,000 mark.At the same time, Ryan also reminded investors that although ETF fund inflows are strong and short-term momentum is sufficient, there are still profit-taking pressures in the market, as well as macro policy uncertainties such as the Jackson Hole meeting and the September interest rate meeting. Traders should be prepared for fluctuations of 10--20% and closely monitor daily ETF flow data and key support levels.
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