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first_img 20VC Partner: AI Token is reenacting the century-long history of the aluminum industry, and intelligent agents may open up a "limitless market."

20VC partner P_Bonnet published an article comparing the history of the aluminum industry to AI, exploring a scenario of "if everything goes well." Most supply shortages will turn into surpluses within 3-5 years and destroy value, but the aluminum industry has seen a price drop of over 99.9% and a market expansion of over 1000 times over more than a century, as each price reduction unlocks new uses rather than collapsing within the same market.AI Tokens are moving up the same cost ladder at nearly 10 times the speed, with the key point being that humans are no longer a constraint. Conversational AI is limited by human reading speed and user scale, while reasoning and agents can make consumers no longer human. Agentic AI may completely remove human limits, leaving only the rapidly improving costs and utilities. The aluminum industry also relied on technological breakthroughs to transform a cheap metal into a structural material.At the infrastructure level, Alcoa monopolized for decades through processes, its own ore, and electricity; Nvidia has accumulated processes like CUDA, with production capacity resembling leasing, and lacks its own power, as major clients have directly locked in nuclear power and are developing their own chips. Ultimately, value will shift to those who discover new uses that could not exist at old prices; price collapse, technological effectiveness, and capital migration are not opposites but the same outcome.

Shanghai issues a new industrialization plan, exploring innovative frameworks such as quantum artificial intelligence

Shanghai issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Accelerating the Advancement of New Industrialization and Building a Modern Industrial System." The plan proposes to comprehensively enhance intelligent computing capabilities, tackle high-performance, low-power, and high-efficiency intelligent computing chips, improve cluster networking and cloud service capabilities, and explore innovative architectures such as heterogeneous computing, optical computing, and quantum artificial intelligence; optimize intelligent computing infrastructure and build an urban computing power network.The plan clearly states the continuous effort on large models, focusing on the research and development of the next generation of large models, overcoming key technologies such as architecture design and training optimization, promoting the coordinated development of chips, large models, and intelligent computing clouds, and building an independent ecosystem. It further promotes the "Model Power Gathering in Shanghai" initiative, accelerates the maturation of embodied intelligence technology, strengthens the autonomous full industrial chain layout of intelligent robots, enhances performance in key areas, and promotes real-world applications in key fields such as industrial manufacturing, logistics assembly, commercial retail, medical care, and housekeeping services. Among them, Jing'an District focuses on developing leading industry characteristic tracks such as ultra-high-definition audio-visual, data intelligence (data corpus and AI applications, blockchain), and beauty and health.

first_img Stanford professor releases venture capital firm rankings: 5% of VCs generate 90% of industry profits, 21 new firms enter the top 100

Stanford Business School Professor Ilya Strebulaev, in collaboration with Blake Jackson, released the 2026 Strebulaev-Jackson Venture Capital Firm Rankings, based on nearly 30 years of data from over 230,000 investments and nearly 13,000 VCs. The research estimates that about 5% of VCs generate approximately 90% of the industry's profits. The top five are Sequoia Capital (10,158 points), Andreessen Horowitz (8,292 points), Accel, DST Global, and Tiger Global. Among them, Parkway Venture Capital (19th place) and Notable (20th place) made it into the top 20, but are not well-known leading brands.The rankings are based on six major factors: discount valuation, dilution adjustment, net profit (after costs), value added (lead investments and board seats), human capital decay (three-and-a-half-year half-life), and credit allocation between institutions and individuals (25% for the investing institution and 75% for the current institution). Of the top 100, 62 are located in California, 19 in New York, and 6 each in Massachusetts and Texas. 21 were established in 2015 or later, and 23 of the best investments are in frontier AI or AI infrastructure companies, with OpenAI listed as the best investment by 4 firms, xAI by 3, and Anthropic and Perplexity by 2 each. The ranking methodology has a correlation of only about 0.27 with the Midas List, with SV Angel investing in about 139 unicorns ranked 31st, and Thrive with only 47 unicorns ranked 8th. This ranking is the result of research by Stanford professors and does not constitute investment advice.
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