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According to Bitcoin News citing research from Crypto Briefing, since 2016, whenever the Federal Reserve paused interest rate hikes and then resumed them, Bitcoin has recorded a decline within 30 days after the rate hike, with a median drop of 2.4%. We are currently in this situation: the Federal Reserve paused after raising rates in September and is expected to raise rates again soon.The research points out that the most similar historical case was in 2018, when Bitcoin fell by 42% during the period from the midterm elections to the rate hike in December. Although the sample size is only 7 instances, the current record stands at 0 wins and 7 losses.

U.S. short-term interest rate futures fell after the non-farm payroll data was released, as traders increased their bets on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December.

Indosuez Wealth Management believes that the market's current pricing of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank's interest rate paths is still significantly more hawkish than the institution's baseline scenario. The institution's strategists Lucas Merrick and portfolio manager Alexander Bell expect that economic growth will remain stable, and inflation will gradually normalize, which will limit the central banks' room for further tightening of monetary policy.The two stated, "However, it may take some time to accumulate enough moderate core inflation and economic growth data to make this scenario a reality. In the meantime, the bond market will remain volatile." The money market currently expects that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by about 1.5 times in the next 12 months, while the European Central Bank will raise rates twice.

Federal Reserve official Harker stated that monetary policy needs to shift to a restrictive stance, and gradual interest rate hikes have a smaller impact on the economy and financial system, making it the best path to bring inflation back to 2%.She pointed out that the inflation level in the United States is still too high and is moving in the wrong direction. Harker also stated that the independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for achieving the 2% inflation target, and the U.S. dollar remains the world's primary reserve currency, a status supported by the U.S. institutional and legal system.

Some observers of the Federal Reserve believe that Trump's strong opposition from voters in the midterm elections may alleviate the political pressure faced by Federal Reserve Chair Waller, allowing him to reduce political interference and focus on controlling inflation. Voters have listed the cost of living as one of their top concerns, fundamentally changing the political landscape surrounding the Federal Reserve.Since Trump's re-election in 2024, he has been exerting pressure on the Federal Reserve and its interest rate decisions, repeatedly calling for rate cuts, supporting an unprecedented criminal investigation into the renovation of the Federal Reserve's office building, and attempting to remove a sitting Federal Reserve governor. Against this backdrop, Trump chose Waller to lead the Federal Reserve in May of this year, after Waller had unusually shifted to support rate cuts. This has raised concerns among Democrats, who fear that the new chair may have agreed to adjust monetary policy according to the president's wishes.Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, stated that in fact, if the election results prompt Trump to end the conflict with Iran and abandon further tariff increases, the Federal Reserve may not need to raise interest rates again at all.

According to Jinshi, John Luke Tanner, portfolio manager and head of fixed income at Aptus Capital Advisors, stated in a report that after the Democratic Party made progress in the gubernatorial elections, the market still needs to pay attention to whether AI capital expenditures and data center construction will be affected, or if they will simply shift to states with more favorable government policies.Tanner indicated that he believes related investments will slow down, but the extent of the slowdown may not be as significant as the market is concerned about. When discussing whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further, he stated that if the main pressure on inflation comes from energy prices and AI expenditures, then the 25 basis point hike in September is likely to be the last of this rate hike cycle. He also mentioned that government gridlock typically drags down GDP growth, which could open up space for further declines across the entire yield curve.

Federal Reserve's Logan stated that the Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates at least two more times, each by 25 basis points.

Federal Reserve's Logan stated that after a 50 basis point rate hike, it would be reasonable to pause further rate increases to determine what additional actions are appropriate.

Due to the rise in oil prices and strong U.S. inflation data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again later this year have increased, leading to a decline in gold prices on Friday.Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, stated that the decline in gold prices puts the technical support around the $4,000 level to the test. The acceleration of U.S. inflation in September confirms expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that the Governing Council debated whether it was appropriate to raise interest rates. The outcome of this meeting is to keep the interest rates unchanged.

The British pound faced selling pressure against the US dollar during the Asian session, dropping to around 1.33. The US dollar strengthened due to expectations of another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year, with CME tools indicating an approximately 80% probability of a rate hike in December. Geopolitical uncertainty supports the US dollar, while the downside potential for the British pound is limited by expectations regarding the Bank of England's policy.

Federal Reserve Chairman Waller stated at a press conference that as oil prices continue to rise, interest rates have fallen. He is skeptical about the impact of interest rate hikes on AI, leaving it up to you to decide whether to read it as AI or SI, and has noted that interest rates have an impact on the technology sector.

In the early hours of Thursday, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.75% to 4.00% with 10 votes in favor and 2 votes against. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack cast the dissenting votes, both advocating for a 25 basis point increase at this meeting.The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement with 10 votes in favor and 2 votes against:The Committee decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.75% to 4.00% to support the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee continues to implement a policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace. Despite factors such as geopolitical tensions keeping uncertainty high, domestic spending remains resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Employment growth is in line with the growth of the labor force, and the unemployment rate has not changed significantly.Inflation remains elevated. Gathering more information will help the Committee determine the appropriate policy stance to ensure inflation returns to the Committee's 2% target in a timely manner. The Committee will achieve price stability.The members voting against this monetary policy action were Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, both advocating for a 25 basis point increase in the federal funds rate target range at this meeting.

The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.75% to 4.00% with 10 votes in favor and 2 votes against. Cook and Harmack cast the dissenting votes, both advocating for a 25 basis point increase at this meeting.The statement noted that economic activity is expanding strongly, and inflation remains high. More information will help the committee assess the appropriate policy stance to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target in a timely manner.

According to data compiled by Jinshi Data, the Federal Reserve faces a trade-off between inflation pressures and policy pace at this interest rate meeting.Reasons supporting an interest rate hike include high CPI and PPI data in September, insufficient progress in reducing inflation, and the current interest rates possibly not yet reaching a sufficiently restrictive level. Hawkish views argue that the market widely expects a rate hike in December, and waiting another six weeks may increase the cost of policy lag.On the other hand, those supporting a pause believe that if only 2 to 3 more rate hikes are needed afterward, the risks of a staggered approach and delaying for six weeks are manageable. Continuous rate hikes may lead the market to overestimate the pace of tightening, and officials have previously signaled patience; an unexpected rate hike before the elections could also exacerbate market volatility.

According to Jinshi citing CNBC analysis, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at this meeting, but further deterioration of inflation may force it to tighten more in the coming months.TD Securities stated that if subsequent inflation data is significantly high, or if the labor market remains strong, the market may raise expectations for the Federal Reserve to implement a one-time rate hike of 50 basis points at future meetings.