BTC $81,289.82 -1.96%
ETH $2,376.90 -2.67%
BNB $726.16 -0.02%
XRP $1.29 -1.96%
SOL $103.77 -1.76%
TRX $0.3318 +0.30%
DOGE $0.0787 -1.36%
ADA $0.2148 -2.60%
BCH $273.10 -2.31%
LINK $11.88 -2.30%
HYPE $78.15 -2.40%
AAVE $147.31 -3.75%
SUI $0.9846 -2.49%
XLM $0.1752 -1.84%
ZEC $1,127.06 -3.47%
AAPL $340.17 -0.99%
AMZN $262.70 +3.72%
GOOGL $343.66 +0.08%
MSFT $535.35 +0.68%
META $702.56 -1.74%
NVDA $216.63 -0.28%
TSLA $369.30 +3.72%
SNDK $1,332.79 -1.16%
INTC $90.85 -2.90%
SPCX $146.58 -0.85%
MU $882.28 -2.45%
AMD $528.97 -2.77%
BTC $81,289.82 -1.96%
ETH $2,376.90 -2.67%
BNB $726.16 -0.02%
XRP $1.29 -1.96%
SOL $103.77 -1.76%
TRX $0.3318 +0.30%
DOGE $0.0787 -1.36%
ADA $0.2148 -2.60%
BCH $273.10 -2.31%
LINK $11.88 -2.30%
HYPE $78.15 -2.40%
AAVE $147.31 -3.75%
SUI $0.9846 -2.49%
XLM $0.1752 -1.84%
ZEC $1,127.06 -3.47%
AAPL $340.17 -0.99%
AMZN $262.70 +3.72%
GOOGL $343.66 +0.08%
MSFT $535.35 +0.68%
META $702.56 -1.74%
NVDA $216.63 -0.28%
TSLA $369.30 +3.72%
SNDK $1,332.79 -1.16%
INTC $90.85 -2.90%
SPCX $146.58 -0.85%
MU $882.28 -2.45%
AMD $528.97 -2.77%

huobi

All
Article
Flash

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Andy: U.S. inflation heats up again, market re-trades "higher for longer"

Surrounding the unexpected rebound of the U.S. September CPI, Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Andy pointed out that inflation is spreading from energy to core prices. The U.S. September CPI rose year-on-year to 3.7%, and the core CPI rose year-on-year to 2.6%. Gasoline prices increased by 9.1% in a single month, contributing to more than half of the overall increase, but prices for housing, healthcare, and airline services also rose, indicating that this rebound cannot be fully explained by energy shocks.The data reinforces the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" policy logic. The economy has not yet shown significant signs of recession, and the Federal Reserve lacks urgent reasons to shift to easing, needing to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored. After the CPI announcement, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar quickly rose, with the market raising expectations for subsequent interest rate hikes, leading to increased uncertainty in the interest rate path.For the cryptocurrency market, this change is slightly bearish in the short term. The market first trades on real interest rates, the dollar, and global liquidity; high inflation does not automatically favor Bitcoin. After the CPI announcement, Bitcoin weakened and fell below $82,000. In the medium term, it is necessary to distinguish between "energy-driven inflation" and "demand-driven inflation": if energy prices decline and core inflation no longer accelerates, the September data is more likely to be a temporary supply shock; if core service inflation continues to rise, then the high interest rate level may be maintained longer than expected. The direction of Bitcoin depends on whether inflation, employment, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields can jointly confirm a new policy path.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: The direction of Bitcoin awaits the determination of CPI, with the lower edge of $81,000 likely to be tested first

Bitcoin has retreated from around $86,000 at the beginning of October, fluctuating in the range of $81,000 to $84,000 in recent days, while the US dollar has strengthened and US Treasury yields remain high. Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that the likelihood of breaking down from the fluctuation range is greater.The ISM services price index rose to 74.0 in September, the highest since July 2022, and the one-year inflation expectation from the University of Michigan rose to 4.7% in October. The rise in price components and inflation expectations indicates that the probability of CPI exceeding expectations this Thursday is not low; if this materializes, the pricing for interest rate hikes at the end of the year will be further strengthened, and the lower bound of $81,000 will be tested first. Only if CPI is below expectations will the breakthrough of the upper bound of $84,000 have sustainability.The recent decline in chip stocks is mainly due to the repricing of AI capital expenditures and hardware profit expectations. The retracement of Bitcoin is smaller, indicating that its pricing is more aligned with macro liquidity, and its correlation with the AI narrative is weakening; however, this divergence is temporary. Once the US dollar and long-term interest rates regain dominance in pricing, the linkage will quickly strengthen, with the CPI announcement on Thursday evening serving as a recent testing window.

HTX DAO Ambassador Molly: Continuously improve the ecological mechanism, promote community nodes and on-chain ecological construction

On the evening of October 6, HTX DAO Ambassador Molly stated at the HTX DAO "Night of the Future" event held in Singapore that HTX DAO is continuously investing in three directions: ecological mechanisms, community building, and on-chain ecology. By continuously optimizing the token economic mechanism, expanding ecological application scenarios, and advancing relevant ecological initiatives according to established mechanisms, a solid foundation for long-term ecological development is being laid.Regarding community building, Molly revealed that HTX DAO plans to promote the construction of regional community nodes in the fourth quarter, supporting community members to organize activities, participate in exchanges, and co-build community culture. Currently, the number of active volunteers participating in community building has approached 200, and there are plans to further expand community participation in the future. In terms of on-chain ecology, HTX DAO is attracting developers from global universities to participate through hackathons and other means, with several projects currently in further incubation or advancement stages, exploring integration with $HTX ecological application scenarios.Molly emphasized that ecological construction requires long-term investment. HTX DAO will continue to improve infrastructure, cultivate active communities, and promote the implementation of ecological applications. She also stated that as one of the participants in the HTX DAO ecosystem, Huobi HTX is also continuously optimizing user experience, including optimizing withdrawal fees, collecting user feedback, and improving the App usage experience, to better respond to user needs and market changes.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: The Bitcoin pullback is a normal retracement, and the differentiation of altcoins may continue until this week's data is released

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returned to above 5.2% overnight, reaching a high not seen since 2007, putting pressure on global risk assets. Bitcoin has fallen back to around $83,000, with altcoins experiencing even larger declines. In this regard, Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that this drop is more akin to a normal pullback after a rebound and does not constitute the starting point of a trend reversal. The high U.S. Treasury yields mainly suppress valuations, with limited impact on the overall liquidity. The funding structure and holding costs of the crypto market itself have also not been disrupted. This round of decline seems more like a clearing of positions before key data is released.It is important to be cautious about the divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins. During a phase of marginal liquidity tightening, funds tend to concentrate on the most certain top assets; altcoins lack incremental funds to support them, and with heavier leverage, their pullbacks are therefore amplified. This divergence is likely to continue before the release of this week's PCE and non-farm data. If the data falls short of expectations, altcoins will have greater elasticity and thus higher risks; if the data exceeds expectations, Bitcoin's relative strength will be more pronounced. Whether Bitcoin can stabilize at key support levels will be the main signal to determine if this round of pullback has ended.Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Bitcoin's rebound has seen spot buying support, and its sustainability depends on ETF inflows and leverage temperature

Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud stated that Bitcoin quickly rebounded after hitting the bottom under the dual pressure of interest rate hikes and the obstruction of the Clear Act, with a weekly increase of about 16%, rising to $87,307 during trading on September 21 (Huobi HTX spot price), reaching a new high since January. This round of increase is driven by three forces: the net inflow of about $1 billion into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF on September 21, the largest single day of the year; short positions being liquidated for about $650 million within 24 hours; and falling oil prices leading to a cooling of inflation expectations. Compared to last week's rebound, which was mainly driven by passive replenishment, this week saw a relay of spot buying.Whether the trend can continue depends on two points: whether ETF inflows can shift from a single-day pulse to a continuous trend, and whether leverage can be maintained at a non-overheated level. Currently, the funding rate is about 0.01%, in a neutral range, but the open interest of Bitcoin contracts has risen above $61 billion. If the capital weakens, high leverage will amplify the pullback. Market sentiment has entered an extreme greed zone, which historically has often been a precursor signal for short-term trend reversals. Technically, $87,500 is the resistance above, while the first support zone is between $84,000 and $85,000. The trend has conditions for continuation, but the highest risk of short-term volatility also occurs during the hottest phase of sentiment.Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.
app_icon
ChainCatcher Building the Web3 world with innovations.