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Analyst: The recent rise in Bitcoin was driven by favorable trade news, but a pullback may occur in the short term

ChainCatcher news, according to The Block, Bitcoin is currently about 4.5% lower than its historical high of $108,786 in January. Vincent Liu, Chief Information Officer of Kronos Research, stated: "Bitcoin is currently hovering near its historical high, with strong technical momentum supporting its break above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The continuous increase of institutional investors and the optimistic outlook for 2025 indicate that Bitcoin is likely to set a new historical high."However, another analyst pointed out that Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the cryptocurrency is in the "overbought" zone. Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, said: "This does not necessarily indicate that the market will reverse immediately, but it does increase the likelihood of a cooling off or consolidation in the short term. A retest and consolidation above the key psychological level of $100,000 would be a healthy development and could lay the groundwork for further increases."Min Jung, a research analyst at Presto, stated: "The recent rise in the cryptocurrency market has been driven by renewed optimism regarding the China-U.S. trade negotiations. With Bitcoin's dominance reaching levels seen before the 2021 bull market, we are now experiencing a typical rotation—capital is starting to flow into altcoins."Presto analysts added that the likelihood of Bitcoin breaking above its previous historical high may depend on how trade negotiations develop, while other escalating geopolitical tensions remain a key variable.

The cryptocurrency market generally experienced a pullback, with only the AI and DePIN sectors remaining relatively strong

ChainCatcher message indicates that, according to SoSoValue data, the cryptocurrency market sector is generally experiencing a pullback, with only the AI and DePIN sectors remaining relatively strong. The AI sector has risen by 0.66% in the last 24 hours, with Bittensor (TAO), Render (RENDER), and Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) increasing by 2.30%, 7.51%, and 7.94%, respectively. The DePIN sector has risen by 0.60%, with Helium (HNT) and Grass (GRASS) increasing by 2.47% and 3.82%, respectively.Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency sector indices reflecting historical market trends show that the ssiAI and ssiDePIN indices have increased by 1.72% and 1.19% in the last 24 hours, respectively, with the ssiAI index having a weekly return rate of 3.79%.Additionally, Bitcoin (BTC) has narrowed its decline to 2.47%, rebounding above $80,000. Ethereum (ETH) has dropped by 6.16% in the last 24 hours, falling below $1,600.In other sectors, the CeFi sector has decreased by 0.03%, but Hyperliquid (HYPE) has risen by 6.01%; the Meme sector has fallen by 0.85%, and the Layer1 sector has decreased by 0.99%, with Avalanche (AVAX) rising by 1.20% and Hedera (HBAR) increasing by 1.71%; the Layer2 sector has dropped by 1.09%, with Arbitrum (ARB) rising against the trend by 1.21%; the PayFi sector has decreased by 1.39%, and the DeFi sector has fallen by 1.45%.

Fidelity analyst: The pullback of Bitcoin is consistent with previous acceleration phases, and there is still a possibility of "initiating a second wave of major upward movement."

ChainCatcher news, according to Cointelegraph, Fidelity Digital Assets has questioned the view that "Bitcoin has reached a cycle peak" in its latest report, suggesting that Bitcoin may be on the brink of the next "acceleration phase."Fidelity analyst Zack Wainwright pointed out that a typical characteristic of Bitcoin's acceleration phase is "high volatility and high returns," similar to the market performance when BTC broke through $20,000 in December 2020. Although Bitcoin's year-to-date return is -11.44%, having retraced nearly 25% from its historical high, Wainwright believes that the recent performance aligns with the average retracement seen after acceleration phases in previous cycles.Wainwright believes that Bitcoin is currently still in the acceleration phase but is nearing the end of the cycle, having lasted 232 days as of March 3. Historical data shows that the acceleration phases in 2010-2011, 2015, and 2017 peaked on the 244th day, 261st day, and 280th day respectively, with each cycle lasting longer. However, historically, acceleration phases usually feature two major upward waves, with the first wave occurring after the election this time. If it can break through the previous high again, the starting point for the second major upward wave may be around $110,000.

The cryptocurrency market sector generally experienced a pullback, with only the SocialFi and Meme sectors remaining relatively strong

ChainCatcher message indicates that, according to SoSoValue data, after several days of consecutive gains in the encrypted market sector, today sees a general pullback, with only the SocialFi and Meme sectors remaining relatively strong. Among them, SocialFi rose 1.97% in the last 24 hours, Toncoin (TON) increased by 2.66%, and UXLINK rose by 3.82%. The Meme sector has risen for four consecutive days, with Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Pepe (PEPE) increasing by 1.39%, 2.74%, and 6.55%, respectively.The cryptocurrency sector indices reflecting the historical performance of the sectors show that the ssiSocialFi and ssiMeme indices rose by 2.22% and 1.09%, respectively. Notably, the weekly return rate of the ssiMeme index has reached 14.37%.In other sectors, the DeFi sector fell by 0.50% in the last 24 hours, with Sky (SKY) performing strongly, rising by 10.32% in a single day; the RWA sector decreased by 1.20%, with Plume (PLUME), which had previously seen significant gains, pulling back by 7%, while Maker (MKR) rose against the trend by 10.71%; the CeFi sector declined by 1.39%, with Hyperliquid (HYPE) affected by a mechanism attack, experiencing a 24-hour drop of 7.38%; the Layer1 sector fell by 1.54%, with Sui (SUI) peaking at 8.05% during the day; the Layer2 sector decreased by 1.64%, and the PayFi sector fell by 3.50%.

QCP Capital: Trump's cryptocurrency reserve plan triggers market volatility, trade tensions escalate risk asset pullback

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis points out that the brief market rebound following Trump's announcement of a cryptocurrency reserve plan on Truth Social on Sunday quickly faded, with risk assets generally pulling back and erasing most of Sunday’s gains. Trump's renewed push for tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China intensified the sell-off, reinforcing investors' concerns about escalating trade tensions.The analysis indicates that the unexpected inclusion of XRP, SOL, and ADA tokens in the reserve plan has sparked divisions within the crypto community, with initial optimism about the project's advantages shifting to a more in-depth examination. Current doubts mainly focus on potential contradictions between the plan and DOGE cost-cutting measures, as well as the lack of transparency regarding the sources of reserve funds.QCP Capital states that this market decline may exacerbate the pressure Trump faces, especially after receiving strong support and donations from the crypto community during his campaign. Even the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) suspending and withdrawing enforcement cases against crypto companies has failed to stop the market sell-off, highlighting a broader risk-averse sentiment.The report notes that after a month of low cross-asset volatility, market anxiety has resurfaced due to the prospect of tariff confrontations potentially suppressing global growth. This shift is reflected in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping 50 basis points over the past two weeks, the VIX surpassing 22, and Bitcoin's short-term volatility sharply rising by 8 points since the weekend, with a significant skew towards bearish options.Previous news, Trump's launch of a cryptocurrency strategic reserve may be aimed at boosting approval ratings, with the market focusing on Friday's White House cryptocurrency summit.
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