mvrv

According to analyst @alicharts, the current Ethereum MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) has dropped to 0.78. Historically, when the MVRV ratio falls below 0.8, ETH is usually close to a long-term bottom. However, the current market is still in a significant distribution phase.@alicharts indicates that if the selling pressure continues, potential support levels are: $1800, $1584, $1238, and $1089.

Cryptocurrency researcher anıl posted on the X platform that, based on historical data, when the MVRV Z-Score drops below 0, especially below -0.20, Bitcoin is at its price low point. In this cycle, the lowest value Bitcoin reached was +0.26, which means the classic "green zone" has not yet been tested. In every previous major cycle, the Z-Score has entered negative territory. If this value enters negative territory again, it could signal the most attractive medium to long-term risk-reward ratio range for Bitcoin.

The cryptocurrency market analysis firm Santiment posted on social media that if a certain cryptocurrency's MVRV indicator is negative, most ordinary traders are losing on that token, indicating an entry opportunity, as profits are below the normal "zero-sum game" level. The more negative the yield, the lower the current buying risk for investors.The current MVRV indicators for mainstream tokens are as follows: ChainLink -9.5%, Cardano -7.9%, Ethereum -7.6%, XRP -5.7%, Bitcoin -3.7%, all of which are in the undervalued zone. Note: MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value Ratio, which is commonly translated into Chinese as: 市值 / 已实现价值比率. This indicator typically reflects whether the average investor holding the coin is making a profit or a loss, as well as whether the overall market valuation is high or low.

Analyst @ali_charts cited glassnode data indicating that, based on the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value ratio (MVRV) derived price range, the two key resistance levels for Bitcoin to watch are: $99,070 and $22,060.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that the short-term holder (STH) MVRV indicator has reached a local low of 0.9124, close to the lower boundary of the statistical range. Currently, the indicator has stabilized and risen to 0.9514.If it can maintain above 0.92, it may further rise to the upper boundary of the range, corresponding to a Bitcoin price of approximately between $115,000 and $120,000.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant analyst Shayan Markets stated that the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) of Bitcoin is an indicator to measure whether the asset is overvalued. This indicator recently fell below its 365-day moving average, suggesting that the Bitcoin market may be forming a "cyclical bottom."The analyst mentioned in a report on Monday: "The MVRV ratio is currently close to 1.9, slightly below its 365-day moving average. Historically, every time this ratio falls below the 365-day simple moving average (SMA), it marks the arrival of a buying opportunity and a local bottom signal." The last occurrences of this were in mid-2021, June 2022, and early 2024, after which Bitcoin prices rose by 135%, 100%, and 196%, respectively.This ongoing pattern indicates that Bitcoin has once again "entered an undervalued phase, where long-term holders typically begin to accumulate." If history repeats itself, Bitcoin prices may initiate a long-term recovery. The analyst expects that if the final phase of the bull market begins, the short-term target price could be around $115,000, potentially even reaching $190,000.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant analyst Axel posted on social media that the current annualized adjusted MVRV ratio of Bitcoin has reached the 1 range------this means that the short-term average (30 days) is basically on par with the annual average (365 days).The annualized basis remains positive, and its curve is horizontal, resulting from the mutual offset of two forces: after a strong rise, the 30-day indicator cools down in sync with volatility and profit-taking speed, while the heavy 365-day average still contains the growth momentum of the past few months. The result is that the numerator and denominator move almost in sync, with the difference between them shrinking, and the basis line neither declines nor accelerates upward------the market is substantively digesting the previous gains.This situation leans more towards a pause in a bullish structure rather than the end of a cycle. As long as the annualized basis does not show a downward reversal, the current situation should be viewed as a balanced state rather than a trend breakdown: the network is reallocating risk from impatient holders to more patient ones, and there are no signs of panic selling.The market's reaction to the current position in the coming weeks will be crucial. At this stage, what the market needs more is time rather than a reversal in direction.

ChainCatcher news, Glassnode stated on social media that as Ethereum reached an all-time high, its MVRV ratio has climbed to 2.15. This means that on average, investors are currently holding more than 2.15 times unrealized gains.This level is similar to the market conditions in March 2024 and December 2020—both of which were followed by a phase of increased volatility and intensified profit-taking.

ChainCatcher message, crypto analyst @ali_charts released a chart analysis stating, "Market peak? Not for ETH. MVRV extremes indicate there is still room for growth."

ChainCatcher message, CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent stated, "The MVRV indicator points to a potential cycle peak. The 365-day moving average (DMA) of MVRV formed a double-top camel shape before the bear market began in 2021. After that, another peak appeared six months later. The second peak actually marked the turning point."

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant analysts stated that the MVRV ratio of short-term holders (STH) is currently only 1.15, far below the typical threshold of 1.35 that triggers large-scale profit-taking. On July 11, the realized price for STH first broke the $100,000 mark and is currently over $102,000.Analysis shows that before reaching the key MVRV threshold, Bitcoin's price still has about 20%-25% upside potential, providing a bullish window for investors. The MVRV metric measures the level of unrealized profits by comparing market capitalization with realized price.

ChainCatcher message, crypto analyst Ali posted on the X platform stating that based on the MVRV pricing range, if Bitcoin recently falls below the support level of $102,044, it may pull back to around the average range of $82,570.

ChainCatcher news, CryptoQuant analyst Axel posted on social media that the annualized real MVRV (Market Value/Realized Value Ratio) of BTC has returned to positive territory, indicating that the average cost price of all tokens purchased in the past year is now below the current market price. Panic selling pressure is easing------most holders are now in profit and do not need to sell at a loss. Holder confidence is continuously strengthening. This "critical point transition" coincides with the market recovery phase, marking the beginning of a more sustainable price growth cycle. This trend will continue until speculative premiums accumulate to a sufficiently high level, prompting holders to choose to take profits.

ChainCatcher news, according to analyst @ali_charts, if Bitcoin breaks and holds above $95,500, based on the MVRV pricing range, the next potential target could be $113,800.

ChainCatcher message, on-chain data analyst Murphy released an analysis of ETH based on token flow and value ratio. The flow ratio of ETH on trading platforms has dropped below 35% since the end of December 2022, a figure that had exceeded 50% in September 2021. This indicates that ETH was once able to compete with BTC in terms of inflow/outflow ratios on trading platforms, but the significant decline now means that the attention of funds towards ETH is decreasing.Since December 2022, Bitcoin's MVRV "Market Value to Realized Value Ratio" (blue line) has shown a clear divergence from Ethereum's MVRV (yellow line). For the previous 7 years, this indicator had always alternated dominance, with ETH sometimes stronger and sometimes BTC stronger. Now, the blue line remains below the yellow line, indicating that since December 2022 until today, the unrealized profits of ETH holders have consistently been lower than those of BTC. Whether from trading platform data or on-chain data, the turning point for Ethereum's trend seems to have occurred in December 2022. Coincidentally, on September 15, 2022, the Ethereum mainnet merged with the Beacon Chain, completely ending PoW mining and transitioning to a PoS consensus mechanism, and everything changed right after that.As the trend of diminishing sentiment weakens, the capital inflow into these two major assets, BTC and ETH, has significantly decreased since last December. Nevertheless, BTC can still maintain a positive inflow of $5.4 billion over the past 30 days; whereas ETH has turned into a net capital outflow since February 15, with nearly $6.2 billion flowing out in the last 30 days as of yesterday. The attitude of funds is a crucial factor in determining price and trend, and ETH's revival in trend requires waiting for a renewed focus of capital.

ChainCatcher news, according to CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei dent, the Bitcoin MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) indicator showed a "death cross" signal in early March when the 30-day moving average crossed below the 365-day moving average, indicating weakened short-term momentum and increased downward pressure.Historical data shows that this signal is usually accompanied by price corrections. With the current MVRV close to the long-term historical average, the market has moved out of the overheated range, but no clear bottom signal has emerged yet, and investors should be cautious of further downside risks.

IntoTheBlock stated that Ethereum's MVRV reached 1.01 yesterday, hitting a new low since October 2023, while the trading price of Ethereum was slightly below $1600 at that time.

ChainCatcher news, according to Assure DeFi CEO Chapo's analysis, the market value to realized value (MVRV) indicator of Bitcoin suggests that there is still room for Bitcoin to rise in this cycle. Chapo expects Bitcoin's MVRV to reach 3.2 by 2025, implying that Bitcoin will experience another bull market in 2025. In April 2021, Bitcoin's MVRV reached this level when the price of Bitcoin was $58,253.Currently, Bitcoin's MVRV is 1.95, with a price of $84,416. Chapo points out that an increase in MVRV usually indicates that more holders are starting to take profits, and the market may experience significant volatility as it approaches the cycle peak. However, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno warns that all valuation indicators are currently in a correction range, and Bitcoin may face more downward pressure before continuing to rise.

ChainCatcher message, CryptoQuant analysts indicate that the analysis of the MVRV 100-day moving average indicator suggests that Bitcoin has not yet reached the peak price of this cycle.The MVRV 100-day moving average indicator is an optimized metric for detecting market tops and bottoms. In the past two cycles, the MVRV indicator reached 3 at the market top, while currently it is at 2.14. Based on this, it can be said that Bitcoin is preparing to approach the peak price of this cycle, which is likely to occur in the coming months.