analyst

Cryptocurrency analyst Murphy stated that the current Bitcoin pullback has pushed the short-term holder's loss ratio (STH-PSIL) to 73%. In comparison, during the last round of rate hikes and the traditional banking crisis, this metric was at 51% during the first pullback and rose to 67% in the second.Murphy referred to the current trend as a "bottomless pit start," believing it resembles the market conditions from 2019 to 2020. During the first pullback in 2019, this metric once rose to 97%, and it took the market about a year to recover from the slump.Murphy believes there is no need to be overly pessimistic at this time, but investor confidence has been damaged. A large number of trapped positions above may continue to create selling pressure when prices rebound to key levels, making this round of recovery potentially more difficult than in 2019. He mentioned that he heavily bought BTC from February to June, and although the current price is close to his cost basis, he has no plans to sell.

Wellington-Altus strategy analyst James E. Thorne stated that the "head and shoulders bottom" pattern of Bitcoin has not yet been broken, with the left shoulder around $59,000, the head around $57,000, and the right shoulder currently forming. Bitcoin needs to first reclaim $73,000 and then break through $87,000 to confirm this pattern.If the pattern is confirmed, Thorne sees a mid-2027 target of $117,000 and expects Bitcoin to subsequently break through the historical high of $126,000, with an end-of-year target of $150,000 to $170,000. He believes that the current round of selling is mainly triggered by the liquidation of leveraged positions, rather than a deterioration in fundamentals, and suggests buying in times of panic. If Bitcoin falls below $57,000, the above judgment will become invalid.

Analyst Darkfost posted that the proportion of Bitcoin's active supply that is in a loss state has exceeded the proportion that is in profit. This estimate excludes Bitcoin that has not moved for over 10 years (most of which is considered illiquid).Adjusted, it is estimated that less than 45% of the supply is in profit. Historical data shows that when this proportion is below 40%, it often corresponds to the lows of market correction phases; conversely, when this proportion approaches 100%, the risk of market reversal increases.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the double-leveraged ETF for Nvidia has received a significant amount of buying on dips, with investors putting in more funds as prices decline.This round of buying is not limited to Nvidia. Balchunas pointed out that in the past two days, ETF inflows have mainly concentrated on equity products. Yesterday, the total inflow into ETFs was $13 billion, with 19 out of the top 20 products by inflow being equity ETFs.

According to CoinDesk, crypto analyst Omkar Godbole stated that the Bitcoin weekly MACD histogram fell below the zero line this week, indicating a weakening price momentum. If the histogram remains negative at the weekly close on Sunday, the bearish signal will be confirmed. Based on the price of approximately $69,000 at the time of the report, if the decline reaches 16%, Bitcoin will drop below $60,000 and approach this year's low of around $57,700.Statistics show that since November 2012, the Bitcoin weekly MACD has generated 24 bearish signals. Among them, in 13 instances, Bitcoin fell at least 16% before the indicator turned bullish again after the signal was confirmed. Of these 13 instances, 5 reached this decline within a week, and 10 within four weeks, with a median time of three weeks. In November 2018 and February 2014, Bitcoin fell 38% and 35% respectively within a week after the signal was confirmed.However, in the other 11 instances, the declines were all less than 16%. The most recent bearish signal appeared in June this year, when Bitcoin only fell about 3% to $57,700 before rebounding. This signal emerged amid outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and a strengthening dollar, but a single technical indicator is insufficient to determine whether Bitcoin will revisit this year's low.

Analyst Murphy stated that the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has returned to "extreme fear." On November 12, the realized losses of long-term and short-term holders moving to trading platforms reached recent highs, with the overall scale approaching the bear market bottom period of June to July this year.Murphy mentioned that the market has recently faced multiple extreme bearish factors, including the Binance black swan event, concerns over AI infrastructure restrictions triggered by the Democratic Party's midterm election victory, CPI exceeding expectations, Nvidia's sharp decline due to scandals, and MSTR being removed from the MSCI index. The severity of these events has surpassed historical levels, except for March 12, 2020. He acknowledged underestimating the impact of collective panic and the short-selling forces behind it, stating that under the dominance of irrational behavior, all technical supports have failed.Murphy also revealed that in his personal holdings, ETH is trapped at $2260, MSTRB is trapped at $136, and his heavily invested BTC has seen a significant reduction in unrealized gains, but he has chosen to maintain his positions. He still believes that the nine months from February to November this year are not a "bear market continuation," but rather a transitional period after emerging from the bear bottom structure, and stated that once signs of improved sentiment and indicator resonance appear, he will only buy on dips.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the price of Bitcoin has fallen below the realized price of short-term holders (STH) and has been below the level of $75,429 for five consecutive days. Overnight, Bitcoin dropped to around $68,000, with a price-to-cost ratio of 0.9, indicating that short-term holders are facing an unrealized loss of about 10%.Additionally, the MVRV Z-Score decreased by 0.13 points this week to 0.54, showing that the market's unrealized profit buffer is shrinking but remains positive. Analysts pointed out that Bitcoin is still in a correction phase, and if the price continues to rise above the STH realized price, it will strengthen expectations for market support formation; if the MVRV Z-Score falls below zero, it may indicate that the market is facing deeper pressure.

Analyst Jukan posted on platform X, stating that Nvidia chips are currently still in short supply, but to maintain the premium for chip scarcity, the company needs to continue supporting emerging cloud service providers (Neocloud). If the new CEO adopts a more cautious attitude towards this business model, it may lead to pressure on GPU spot prices, a decline in cloud service providers' profit margins, and prompt them to turn to alternatives such as AMD or Google TPU, thereby weakening Nvidia's market dominance and supply chain control.Jukan stated that Jensen Huang has been working hard to maintain Nvidia's growth flywheel, which not only helps to expand chip demand but also ensures the computing power utilization of emerging cloud service providers. Huang originally hoped to gradually let go once the emerging cloud service providers could independently order the next generation of GPUs, but it is currently uncertain whether the successor CEO is willing to wait.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) of short-term Bitcoin holders has dropped to 0.98, remaining in negative territory since October 30, indicating that this group has begun to realize losses when selling Bitcoin.This metric measures the profit and loss realized when UTXOs are spent. Each UTXO has its own cost basis; when Bitcoin is moved, old UTXOs are destroyed, and new UTXOs are generated at new realization prices. SOPR calculates the difference between the two. This round only counts short-term holders, whose monthly average once reached 1.013 but has now fallen back to a neutral level of 1, erasing average profits.Darkfost noted that recent data suggests the market is leaning towards a capitulation phase. He believes that in a long-term bull market, a negative SOPR often corresponds to buying opportunities, but the monthly average has yet to reflect this, and capitulation may continue for several more days before reaching extremes.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that since October, Bitcoin has undergone a chip distribution phase, resulting in a correction of about 15%. Currently, losses dominate after the profit-taking phase of short-term holders (STH).In the past 24 hours, short-term holders have sent 48,500 BTC to exchanges, of which 47,300 were sent at a loss, making it one of the strongest STH capitulation behaviors in recent months.

CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain stated that Binance's estimated leverage ratio for XRP has dropped to about 0.14, the lowest level in three months.

In October, the U.S. CPI exceeded expectations. After the data was released, BTC briefly fell to around $73,000, and the market began to bet on a 50 basis point rate hike in December. In response, Cloud, the chief analyst at Huobi HTX, believes that the probability of a 50 basis point hike is low, and a 25 basis point increase remains the baseline scenario. The current decline is more akin to a pricing correction.There are three reasons: The Federal Reserve values the continuity of data, and historically, there are very few cases where a single month's CPI jump has changed the pace of rate hikes; a single month of exceeding expectations is insufficient to overturn the gradual path; the current inflation stickiness mainly stems from the lagged transmission of tariffs and rents, which will naturally diminish, and marginal employment is also weakening. The committee has no reason to impose aggressive tightening at the peak of transmission; the credit spread has widened from 93 basis points to 348 basis points, financial conditions have effectively tightened, and adding another 50 basis points would actively create financial stability risks.In the crypto market, funding rates have turned negative, and the open interest in perpetual contracts has decreased by nearly 20% in a week. The fear and greed index has fallen into the deep fear zone, and the clearing of leverage has been relatively sufficient, limiting the space for further short-term declines. However, an oversold situation does not mean an immediate rebound; confirmation is needed for CPI to fall in the next two months. If inflation exceeds expectations for two consecutive months and a 50 basis point hike is realized, a trend decline will begin, but currently, this scenario seems unlikely.Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, the whale @fiyopi recently opened a long position of 24,500 ETH (worth 50.59 million USD) on Hyperliquid at 2,207.5 USD, currently facing a loss of 3.5 million USD. One of their addresses is named "Machi is ugly dog."

Cryptocurrency analyst Tom Wan posted on the X platform that the market share of Ethereum stablecoins has dropped to 46%, a historic low. Over the past year, the supply of stablecoins on the Ethereum chain has decreased by $32.5 billion, while the total supply of stablecoins in the entire market has only decreased by about $10 billion.During the same period, the supply of Tron stablecoins increased by $16.2 billion, raising its market share to 32%; Hyperliquid and Solana increased by $1.6 billion each. Additionally, the newly launched blockchains this year, including Arc, X Layer, Robinhood Chain, Tempo, and Monad, collectively added about $5.2 billion in stablecoin supply.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that the funding rate for XRP perpetual contracts on Binance has risen to its highest level in over a year. The last time such a high rate was observed was in October 2025, shortly after XRP set a record of $3.55. Currently, XRP has retraced about 30% from its previous peak, but the XRP derivative positions on Binance still lean bullish, showing signs of a crowded long position.Meanwhile, the spot XRP ETF recorded one of its worst performances of the year, with a net outflow of approximately 9.37 million XRP, valued at $10.4 million, contrasting with the bullish positions on Binance. Darkfost noted that shifts in market sentiment often occur in the later stages of a rebound, and as prices pull back, maintaining a bullish preference may face risks.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin traded below $75,000 on Tuesday morning as the market awaited the U.S. October CPI data. Economists expect the overall CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month, with core CPI rising 0.2%, both slowing compared to September. Due to the U.S. government shutdown last October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to compile a complete index, so there is no year-over-year data this time.BRN analysts stated that any easing of inflation expectations would benefit risk assets, but Bitcoin needs real buying pressure. Until ETF fund flows turn positive and the Federal Reserve shifts to a dovish stance, the path of least resistance remains downward. Bitget Wallet analysts believe that moderate inflation data could trigger a brief rebound, but Bitcoin's sustained recovery depends on improved liquidity and spot demand. Analysts pointed out that if Bitcoin closes below $73,000 on a daily basis, it could trigger momentum selling down to $70,000; the $73,000 to $74,000 range is a key support zone, and reclaiming and holding above $80,000 would indicate increased demand.

CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA pointed out that the price trend of Ethereum is diverging from staking activity. The staking rate for Ethereum 2 has increased by about 4.32% since May, with approximately 36.32% of the total ETH supply currently staked.Although the price of ETH on Binance has dropped from around $2,800 in October to $2,132, the staking rate continues to rise, indicating that investors have not significantly reduced their staking commitments due to the weak price. Analysts believe that a higher staking participation rate reduces the supply of ETH available for trading, which may provide price support when demand is strong, but staked ETH is not permanently locked, as validators can initiate withdrawals.At the same time, total staking inflows have decreased by 40.11%, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between long-term staking growth and daily inflow activity. Overall, Ethereum maintains a potentially supportive supply-side dynamic in the medium to long term; if the market can absorb selling pressure and attract sufficient demand, ETH may lay the groundwork for a stronger upward trend.

Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost posted on the X platform, stating that while the cryptocurrency market is weakening, the trading volume of tokenized gold products has rebounded against the trend. The total trading volume of gold-backed products on the Binance platform has exceeded 8 billion dollars since its launch; excluding the peak trading volume during the initial launch period, the trading volume in the past 7 days has reached a new high of over 325 million dollars, with a single-day trading volume of 78 million dollars.According to CoinGecko data, the total market capitalization of tokenized assets is currently about 50 billion dollars, with commodity assets nearing 6 billion dollars in market value, and gold holding a significant share. However, Darkfost reminds that the price of gold has retraced over 30% since the beginning of the year and is currently stabilizing around 4,000 dollars per ounce.