non-farm

According to Jinshi reports, U.S. President Trump stated that not only was the employment data very good yesterday, with an increase of 178,000 jobs, but the trade deficit also decreased by 55%, marking the largest drop in history. Thanks to "Mr. Tariff."In addition, Trump posted on social media that the failing New York Times has lost its credibility and continues to launch false news attacks against your beloved president, which has led to a significant decline in its circulation. They even referred to our severely weakened and extremely unreliable "partner" NATO as the "North American Treaty Organization."The correct name is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a very interesting mistake; the hiring and education standards of the New York Times have significantly declined. Let "all news fit to print" return, and make America great again.

According to Jinshi reports, Huatai Securities believes that the better-than-expected rebound in March's non-farm data shows the resilience of the U.S. labor market. However, under the conflict in the Middle East, the impact of high oil prices on inflation expectations is more critical for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.Recently, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has intensified, and the oil supply gap caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up oil prices and inflation expectations. Inflation is currently the core variable of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

According to Jin Shi reports, Carson Group's Chief Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese stated that the latest labor data indicates that the economy is adding enough jobs to keep up with population growth.He pointed out that this will put the Federal Reserve in a more complex situation, making it meaningless to consider interest rate cuts, especially in light of the scale of the impending inflation shock. He added that the inflation issue existed before the Middle East crisis that led to soaring energy prices, and it ultimately seems that the interest rate cuts implemented last year were a mistake.

According to Jinshi reports, the number of private non-farm jobs in the U.S. for March was 186,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. The previous value was revised from -86,000 to -129,000.

According to Jinshi reports, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the U.S. for March were 178,000, expected to be 60,000, with the previous value revised from -92,000 to -133,000.

According to Jinshi, the US March non-farm payroll report will be released tonight at 20:30. The market expects an increase of 60,000 jobs, breaking out of the previous "negative growth" spiral. Today, US stocks and international gold, silver, and oil markets are closed, but given the data's critical importance to the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, it may trigger market movements next Monday. Please pay attention to the related risks.

According to Jinshi News, the US dollar is experiencing its best week in over a year, strengthening as a safe haven due to the Middle East conflict and soaring oil prices. This week, the Bloomberg Spot Dollar Index rose 1.4%, marking the largest increase since 2024. Hostilities have disrupted crude oil production, leading traders to cut bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, further boosting the dollar. Although US employers unexpectedly cut jobs last month, the focus remains on energy prices, and this data only briefly weighed on the dollar, which quickly regained its upward momentum.

According to Jinshi reports, the non-farm payroll data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday indicated that the U.S. experienced a decrease in job positions in February, influenced by severe weather and strikes in healthcare institutions. Federal Reserve's Daly stated in an interview with CNBC that this report cannot be ignored, but it is just monthly data and does not require excessive interpretation.

According to Jinshi reports, although the recent rise in oil prices may exacerbate inflation, the disappointing non-farm payroll report has boosted market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury prices. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell by 3 basis points to 4.1%, while the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury dropped by 5 basis points to 3.53%. Interest rate swaps indicate that traders are betting the Federal Reserve will cut rates a total of 44 basis points before December.

According to Jinshi reports, analyst Chris Anstey stated that this week's non-farm data is likely to pressure the Federal Reserve to consider resuming interest rate cuts. The current economic situation is completely inconsistent with the "stabilizing" description given by many officials earlier.

According to Jinshi reports, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the non-farm payrolls for December were revised from 48,000 to -17,000; the non-farm payrolls for January were revised from 130,000 to 126,000. After revisions, the total number of new jobs for December and January decreased by 69,000 compared to before the revisions.

According to Jinshi, the U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls decreased by 92,000 in February, recording a negative value again after October 2025, while the market expected an increase of 59,000.

According to Jinshi reports, as oil prices retreat and investors shift their focus to the key U.S. non-farm payroll report, the dollar exchange rate has declined. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen announced a temporary measure aimed at alleviating the pressure on oil supplies from the Middle East conflict, resulting in a decrease in oil prices.The Middle East conflict has driven up oil prices and boosted the dollar, as the market has reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut due to potential inflation impacts. Non-farm data is typically a key indicator that shapes interest rate expectations.

According to Jinshi, the U.S. non-farm payroll report for February will be released tonight at 21:30, with market expectations significantly cooling. Factors such as strikes, benchmark revisions, and weak consumer demand may lead to hidden traps in the data. Will last month's strong job additions be a "flash in the pan"? Market fluctuations are likely at that time, and investors need to be aware of the risks.

According to Jin Ten, strategists at TD Securities pointed out in a report that unless Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll report shows significant weakness, it is unlikely to have a major impact on the dollar. They believe that U.S. economic data may take a back seat, with market focus shifting to the Middle East conflict and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates. The strategists stated that only in the case of rising unemployment will the market refocus on non-farm data and reverse recent price trends.

According to Jinshi reports, Morgan Stanley strategists pointed out in a report that if inflation data comes in below expectations after a strong non-farm payroll report, it often triggers the largest decline in the dollar. In this case, strong signals of U.S. growth without accompanying inflationary pressures benefit risk-sensitive currencies strengthening against the dollar. The strategists stated that the inflation swap market suggests that the January inflation report to be released tonight may be below expectations.