macro

Renowned trader Ansem stated in the podcast "Market Bubble" that he has recently shifted from a bullish to a bearish stance, reducing his positions and taking profits over the past few days, while also shorting a portion.Regarding stocks, Ansem believes that mainstream targets have seen significant increases, accumulating a large amount of unrealized profits, and have hardly experienced any proper corrections. Now, significant de-risking and profit-taking are starting to occur. He thinks that the U.S. stock market may be at the tail end of the macro cycle, with funds withdrawing.For the cryptocurrency market, Ansem believes that crypto performed strongly in Q3, but it may just be a counter-trend rebound rather than the beginning of a new bull market. Crypto had previously outpaced the weakness in stocks, rebounding after being oversold; if stocks continue to weaken, they may drag crypto down with them, and Bitcoin could fall back to around $70,000. He also expressed continued optimism about tokenized stocks, viewing them as a key pathway to bring more traditional capital onto the blockchain, as well as a catalyst for the next wave of real users and capital inflow, and reiterated his positive outlook on ZEC, emphasizing its privacy Bitcoin attributes.

According to official news, the WCTC × Gate event market "Macro Prophet" activity has started and will last until November 25 at 16:00 (UTC+8), with a total reward value of 70,000 USDT. Eligible users who complete the WCTC S9 main event and register for this activity will be able to participate in the distribution of a reward pool valued at 20,000 USDT, provided that the daily effective trading volume in designated sectors related to the U.S. midterm elections and macro data reaches 200 USDT for at least 3 cumulative days.A separate cumulative trading volume leaderboard has a reward pool valued at 50,000 USDT, where users meeting the corresponding conditions can receive event market experience vouchers worth up to 8,250 USDT in total. The Gate event market has also launched a macro market special page, which visually displays the event probabilities, trading volumes, and market expectations for topics such as Federal Reserve interest rates, inflation, and employment, providing users with a reference for observing macro trends.Meanwhile, as of October 27, the total prize pool for the 11th phase of the Gate event market points activity has reached 70,049 USD, with the points prize pool being 11,074 USD and the lucky prize pool being 58,974 USD. The top position on the points leaderboard is expected to receive 4,152.75 USD. In conjunction with the ongoing League of Legends World Championship, Gate's "Summit Prediction Competition" is simultaneously offering a total reward pool valued at 150,000 USDT, covering initial predictions, phased trading tasks, canyon power rankings, and championship predictions, combining event result judgments with multi-stage participation tasks.

According to the official announcement, the Gate event market has officially launched a macro market special page, focusing on core topics such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, inflation, employment, economic growth, U.S. Treasury yields, and economic recession, displaying event probabilities, trading volumes, and market expectations through a visual dashboard. Users can experience related features by updating the Gate App to version v8.41 or above.In the special page, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision module provides a countdown to future interest rate events and displays the probability distribution of options such as rate hikes, rate cuts, and maintaining the current rate; core CPI, core PCE, non-farm employment, and unemployment rates are presented through indicator cards showing the latest forecast results. The GDP module displays the probabilities of different growth ranges, the U.S. Treasury module covers yields for 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds, and the recession module presents market probabilities through a dashboard. The page supports dynamic updates of related event probabilities, and users can also enter event details to view key events and related news.As a centralized trading platform that is the first to layout the event market, Gate's upgrade further integrates macroeconomic information, enhancing the market expectation observation experience. In the future, the platform will continue to enrich the coverage of events, deepen the connection between market data, information, and event trading, and improve the one-stop event market service system.

Research institution Tiger Research researcher Ryan Yoon released the final report of the prediction market series, discussing whether prediction markets have practical utility. The report states that participants bear the judgment results with funds, and prices are updated in real-time with new information, forming probability distributions comparable to traditional polls, expert surveys, and economic forecasts; prediction markets have expanded from sports and election predictions to macroeconomic and geopolitical data infrastructure.The report lists that Google Finance, CNBC, CNN, and The Wall Street Journal have displayed prediction market probabilities, and the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange, along with the electronic bond trading platform Tradeweb, distributes relevant data to institutional clients. A working paper from the Federal Reserve Board describes the prediction market Kalshi as a high-frequency, continuously updated benchmark with rich information distribution. The paper states that Kalshi's median and mode predictions for the federal funds rate recorded perfectly the day before the FOMC meeting and significantly outperformed federal funds futures during that period; compared to Bloomberg consensus, it is more accurate for overall CPI and statistically similar for core CPI and unemployment rate.The report also cites research from the Iowa Electronic Markets: in five U.S. presidential elections from 1988 to 2004, and in a comparison of 964 polls, it was more accurate in 74% of cases; the average voting share error one week before the election was 1.5 percentage points, lower than Gallup's final poll of 2.1 percentage points. The report suggests that the platform needs to deepen liquidity to resist manipulation, communicate with regulatory agencies, and position itself as a monitoring tool while maintaining open transparency and data supported by independent research.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that due to the ongoing tensions in the Gulf region and Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian refineries, Brent crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel. The rise in oil prices is transmitting through the global economy, pushing up production, service, and commodity costs, further permeating inflationary pressures into the economic system, and potentially increasing the risk of economic slowdown, thereby limiting market liquidity, especially for funds flowing into high-risk assets like Bitcoin.Darkfost pointed out that from a long-term trend perspective, when Brent crude oil remains above the annual average and enters a strong upward trend, BTC tends to show slower performance; conversely, when oil prices drop significantly, BTC is more likely to experience a recovery. However, he emphasized that this does not mean there is a simple direct causal relationship between oil prices and BTC; what truly affects risk assets is the macroeconomic environment accompanying high oil prices. In July of this year, oil prices briefly retreated, providing BTC with an opportunity to rise, but Brent crude has since rebounded significantly. Although funds may still rotate between different markets, driving BTC to continue its upward trend, the current macro environment is not conducive to sustained new liquidity flowing into the market.

Last week, U.S. tech stocks experienced a significant pullback, with the Nasdaq dropping over 4% for the week. The market is digesting stronger-than-expected inflation data while reassessing the narrative that "the economy cannot be crushed." The Federal Reserve has entered its quiet period ahead of the FOMC meeting on October 28, with officials absent from public statements. This week, more attention will be on the earnings reports of tech giants and economic data, with Meta and Tesla set to announce their results, and the semiconductor and storage sectors also entering their earnings disclosure window.On the geopolitical front, Trump has suspended the full sanctions and tariff enforcement against Russia and set a roughly 60-day assessment window. Disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and escalating risks in the Middle East continue to support oil price premiums. On the agenda, the Nvidia GTC Berlin conference opens on Tuesday and runs until the 22nd; on Wednesday, the U.S. will release API and EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending October 16. In the evening, Beijing time, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote speech, followed by earnings reports from Meta, Tesla, IBM, and Lam Research after the market closes.On Thursday, the U.S. will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending October 17. Before the market opens, Nokia will release its earnings report, and after the market closes, Western Digital and MaxLinear will announce their earnings. On Friday, the U.S. will release the preliminary values for the October S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs, as well as the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and the final value of one-year inflation expectations. On the same day, Japan will also release its September CPI and preliminary values for the October composite, manufacturing, and services PMIs, allowing the market to observe the price situation ahead of the Bank of Japan's decision on October 30.

Bitcoin Magazine cites the views of Jurrien Timmer, the Global Macro Director at Fidelity, stating that Bitcoin may be entering a new bull market.Jurrien Timmer stated: Based on the power law model, a new four-year cycle bull market may have already begun. Currently, there does not seem to be a clear narrative, but bull markets rarely start with a clear narrative.

According to Bloomberg, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with analysts still leaning bullish, but the speculative market is shifting towards defense, putting pressure on risk appetite. Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 for the first time in nearly a month; affected by the sell-off in the U.S. stock market's AI sector, risk assets retreated, and the bullish sentiment that the cryptocurrency market was trying to rebuild was once again thwarted.Jeff Anderson, head of STS Digital in the U.S., stated that inflation data will "severely impact risk appetite," and the market is entering a quiet period before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with interest rate expectations still uncertain. Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, mentioned that in the past 24 hours, the market's pricing of Bitcoin's probability of rising to $100,000 before Christmas has decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 9.7%; long-term bullish bets have quickly retreated, short-term hedging demand has surged, and institutions are reassessing macro risk exposure as the interest rate outlook becomes unclear again.

NVIDIA (NVDA.O) CEO Jensen Huang met with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Whale "Set 10 Major Goals First" (@jasonleo) shared a post late at night stating that the most noteworthy aspect of this round of BTC correction is not the decline itself, but "why it only dropped this much." He pointed out that recently the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield approached 5.7%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was about 5.3%. Market expectations for another interest rate hike within the year are rising, while oil prices and inflation pressures are resurfacing, with multiple macroeconomic headwinds overlapping. However, BTC has only corrected about 5% so far.jasonleo believes that the price's reaction to news is itself important information. In the past, when a single macroeconomic headwind appeared, BTC could experience a decline of over 10%. Yet this time, under the pressure of multiple headwinds, the price has not shown significant damage, which indicates that the current upward trend has a certain resilience. He compared the current trend to BTC's previous bottom around $58,000, believing that both exhibit the characteristic of "weakened selling pressure after sufficient release of bad news," but the current market remains in a strong trend. He stated that he does not currently believe BTC will directly drop to $78,000 or even $74,000, and will observe $79,000 as a position to reduce holdings: if BTC falls below $79,000, he will begin to reduce holdings; if the daily close falls below $78,000, he will exit all remaining long positions and wait for the next entry opportunity; if the key position is not broken, he will continue to hold long positions.

French President Macron will host a video call with G7 leaders this Friday to discuss measures to address the global crude oil and refined oil markets. Macron has spoken on the phone with U.S. President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau, and has requested EU partners to release additional diesel stocks in response to U.S. supply demands.

Binance Co-CEO Richard Teng posted on X, stating: The macro environment still faces challenges, with U.S. yields remaining high and continuing to pressure risk assets; however, there are signs of improvement in investor demand.Richard Teng also mentioned: The spot Bitcoin ETF attracted a net inflow of $999 million, and technical indicators are beginning to show early signs of recovery.

According to Lianhe Zaobao, U.S. President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This new round of macroeconomic uncertainty is putting pressure on risk assets, and Bitcoin has cooled off after several weeks of rapid gains, with its upward momentum stalling.In addition to geopolitical factors, the market continues to digest the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike measures and is also preparing for another possible rate hike in October. Since August 19, Bitcoin has risen by 28%, and now, Bitcoin is expected to achieve its best quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2024.

According to QCP analysis, the global market opened under multi-asset pressure, with investors reducing risk exposure. The Nasdaq 100 index fell from 744.45 to 737.76 in pre-market trading, gold dropped from $4260 to $4147, Bitcoin decreased from $84500 to $82800, and the dollar index also declined, reflecting broad deleveraging rather than a shift to safe-haven assets.QCP stated that the main driving factor is geopolitical: the United States rejected a ceasefire condition proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz last weekend, reigniting concerns over energy supply disruptions and driving a significant rise in Brent crude oil. This week, the U.S. macroeconomic calendar is packed. Following the recent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the PCE price index and non-farm payroll report are key data points, and the market remains highly sensitive to data that could influence further adjustments in monetary policy. In terms of crypto options, front-end implied volatility remains high, with traders pricing for downside protection. Spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows show hesitation amid broader clearing. Bitcoin's recent technical strength faces dual pressure from geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic data risks, with key support levels being closely monitored.

Fidelity Investments Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer posted on X, discussing Bitcoin prices and the power law model.Jurrien Timmer stated: The power law mathematics of Bitcoin continues to indicate that after holding the $60,000 level, a new cyclical bull market is unfolding, with a target of reaching $300,000 by 2029.

In the seventh live broadcast of the Huobi Expert Lecture, HTX Research asset analyst WZ pointed out that in the past, people were accustomed to explaining Crypto with Crypto, but today, the variables that determine the next phase of Crypto are increasingly occurring outside of Crypto. This marks a new pricing cycle that Crypto is entering.On the policy level, WZ believes that although the Clarity Act, which has systematic characteristics, is hindered in the Senate due to the need to secure bipartisan votes and issues involving the Trump family's interests and stablecoin profit distribution, U.S. crypto regulation has not stalled. For instance, the SEC recently released an "innovation exemption" plan that allows compliant institutions meeting certain conditions to tokenize specific stocks, accelerating the integration of traditional finance and crypto.On the macro level, WZ stated that the situation in the Middle East and the blockage risk in the Strait of Hormuz have raised the "risk premium" of crude oil. Rising oil prices can trigger inflation expectations, which in turn affect U.S. Treasury yields and global liquidity. When energy prices remain high and interest rates stay elevated, the upward potential for risk assets like Bitcoin may be constrained.WZ also pointed out that in this cycle, the direct inflow and outflow of ETF funds have changed the traditional logic of capital overflow, making a "general rise" pattern for altcoins difficult to achieve. However, in the new cycle, assets with a "new narrative" and strong consensus will still experience independent upward trends.

Jurrien Timmer, Global Macro Director at Fidelity Investments, stated that Bitcoin has started to rise after consolidating around the support level of approximately $60,000 for nearly a year, a duration comparable to a typical Bitcoin winter, leading him to conclude that a new four-year cycle bull market may have begun.Timmer mentioned that the Z-score of BTC/gold has changed from -100% to a positive value, a signal that historically confirms a bottom. He also pointed out that we are currently in a long-term new pattern with higher capital costs, and the government may respond with financial repression.