macro

According to market news, as spot trading volume continues to shrink, leverage has become the main driving factor for short-term fluctuations. In the absence of "structural buying" (long-term funds that can absorb selling pressure), the market will experience sharp rises and falls on both the bullish and bearish sides.From a technical perspective, BTC has found support near its 200-week moving average, which historically has often been the location where bear market bottoms form. Wintermute believes that until clear signals re-emerge at the macro level, each rebound will be viewed as an opportunity to de-risk rather than a reason to chase prices higher. For crypto, the key to returning to an upward trajectory still depends on macro clarity. The 200-week moving average remains supportive, and there has been no structural damage to the market, which means that once macro uncertainty dissipates, the pace of recovery could be faster than current sentiment suggests. In the short term, we are in a range-bound, slightly downward state; the market is dominated by leverage, and the $70,000 level remains an important resistance point in the near term.

According to Jinshi News, the global market will welcome a "data bomb" week next week. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the January monetary policy meeting on Thursday at 03:00, from which the market will seek more clues about the interest rate cut path in 2026; the focus will be on the initial value of the U.S. fourth-quarter GDP and core PCE price index to be released on Friday at 21:30. As the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, if the PCE reading is higher than expected, it may affect the pace of policy easing this year.On the central bank front, several Federal Reserve officials will speak intensively, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the meeting minutes, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision. The market generally expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to remain unchanged, while the Reserve Bank of Australia may emphasize the risks of rising inflation. In terms of asset performance, spot gold maintains a high-level fluctuation, rebounding to close higher after a significant drop during the week; oil prices rose and then fell, with market rumors that OPEC+ may resume production increases in April; the dollar's movement has become a key variable, and if it does not hit a new low, it may maintain relative strength against the backdrop of the approaching tariff decision.Meanwhile, demand for U.S. Treasuries is heating up, which may trigger a new round of asset reallocation. In terms of major events, the Supreme Court of the United States will issue opinions on February 20, including rulings on Trump's "Day of Liberation" tariff policy. If the ruling is unfavorable, it may have a significant impact on related tariff measures and affect global trade and market sentiment.On the company level, the earnings season is coming to an end. Walmart will announce its fourth-quarter fiscal year performance.

QCP's analysis states that Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded from last week's lows, with the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) recording a net inflow of $145 million yesterday, continuing the momentum of last Friday's $371 million inflow, indicating that institutional demand is cautiously returning. The spot Ethereum ETF also reversed its downward trend, recording a net inflow of $57 million yesterday after three consecutive days of net outflows. Meanwhile, Tom Lee's BitMine continues to increase its holdings in Ethereum, stabilizing market confidence in Ethereum.On the macro front, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran seem to have eased, while lower-than-expected employment data has led traders to anticipate a possible interest rate cut in March. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index remains in the extreme fear zone at 9, indicating that market sentiment is still fragile.

According to Jinshi, Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon stated that the current macroeconomic situation is very favorable for risk assets.

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley stated in an interview with CNBC, "Bitcoin has seen a double-digit drop in a single day and is currently in a bear market, down nearly 30% year-to-date. As for the reasons, I believe the current crypto market is being swept up by the overall macro environment, with investors selling off all liquid assets. Gold is down, the Nasdaq 100 is down, and Amazon is also being sold off. Over the past few months, there have indeed been some internal factors in the crypto space, such as operational disruptions at certain offshore trading platforms, but at this moment, crypto assets are trading more in sync with other highly liquid assets. I feel that long-term holders are experiencing uncertainty; meanwhile, newly entering institutional investors feel they are encountering a 'second chance,' seeing prices they once thought they had missed forever. I believe we are currently in a transitional phase. Ultimately, crypto assets remain a relatively small asset class, and most investors have not truly allocated to them yet. Therefore, the overall long-term outlook is very solid; it is just currently experiencing fluctuations and reversals during this transitional period."

According to Jinshi News, Huatai Macro Research Report pointed out that on January 30, Beijing time, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. After taking office, Warsh may promote a policy combination of "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction," and communication with the president may be smoother. However, the Trump administration's support for capital markets and liquidity will remain, and the overall orientation of monetary policy will still be loose. In the medium term, the independence of the Federal Reserve may be eroded, and the trend of the dollar's intrinsic value declining may not change.

Gate Research Institute released "Gate TradFi Macro Multi-Asset One-Stop Coverage." As trading demand shifts from a single cryptocurrency circle to macro multi-assets, TradFi is becoming a new growth curve for CEX to extend user trading cycles, enhance fund retention, and strengthen hedging capabilities. The report points out that Gate TradFi uses MT5 as the underlying trading system, providing a diversified traditional asset CFD trading entry that covers precious metals, foreign exchange, indices, commodities, and popular US stock CFDs. Users trade price fluctuations rather than holding the underlying assets, and there are no expiration dates or delivery requirements.In terms of product mechanism, Gate TradFi uses USDx as the accounting display unit within the account, supported 1:1 by USDT, allowing users to participate in macro asset trading within the familiar USDT system without manual currency exchange. Meanwhile, the Gate App and MT5 client synchronize account data and trading records, facilitating multi-market rotation and risk hedging within the same account. Regarding costs and risk control, Gate TradFi standardizes the disclosure of key cost items such as spreads, commissions, and overnight fees, and clarifies the process and execution rules for triggering forced liquidation when the margin ratio falls to 50% or below.

According to The Block, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $708.7 million yesterday, marking the largest single-day outflow in nearly two months, while the Ethereum ETF experienced a net outflow of $286.9 million. In the context of increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, institutional investors are further reducing their risk exposure.BTC Markets crypto analyst Rachael Lucas stated that Wednesday's outflows resemble typical "de-risking" behavior. She noted that when the macro environment turns unfavorable, such as rising interest rates, escalating geopolitical risks, or sudden increases in market volatility, institutional investors tend to withdraw funds from high-beta assets first.This is not a signal of structural weakness, but rather a tightening of risk exposure by institutions before uncertainty arises, and it does not imply a abandonment of the cryptocurrency asset class.

According to CoinDesk, veteran trader Peter Brandt, who accurately predicted the Bitcoin crash in 2018, forecasts that Bitcoin could drop to the range of $58,000 to $62,000 within two weeks. Several market analysts have warned that the current macroeconomic conditions, including the risk of escalating tariffs in Europe and the U.S. and geopolitical tensions, have paved the way for Bitcoin's decline.Brandt pointed out on social media that Bitcoin's key resistance level is around $102,300 and remains in a bearish trend. Analyst Jason Fernandes believes that this target could technically be achieved, but the driving factors are rooted in the macro environment rather than purely chart patterns. He emphasized that although U.S. inflation has fallen below 2%, central bank policies remain cautious, and any escalation in tariffs or geopolitical friction could raise inflation again and delay interest rate cuts. As long as interest rates remain restrictive and liquidity is constrained, the possibility of Bitcoin returning to the mid-$55,000 range still exists.Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, also agrees with Brandt's assessment of the probabilities and points out that after years of Federal Reserve liquidity tightening and the worst economic environment in decades, the impact of macro conditions may outweigh any single chart pattern. Options market data shows that the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 before June is about 30%.

According to Jinshi reports, in the first full trading week of 2026, cross-asset prices rose in sync, and Wall Street's risk sentiment is thriving again. The appetite for risk among investors is evident. The S&P 500 index rose 1.6% this week, while the Russell 2000 index increased by 4.6%. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) attracted $10 billion in just a few days—an astonishing pace for a passive fund. These mark a good start for the year.On Tuesday at 21:30, the U.S. December unadjusted CPI year-on-year, seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month, seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month, and unadjusted core CPI year-on-year;On Wednesday at 21:30, the U.S. November retail sales month-on-month, U.S. November PPI year-on-year/month-on-month, and U.S. third-quarter current account;On Thursday at 21:30, the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, the U.S. January New York Fed/Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. November import price index month-on-month.In addition, Federal Reserve officials will be speaking intensively next week, and it is unlikely that rates will be cut before Powell's successor takes office, as detailed in the attached image. Strategists at Bank of America Global Research stated that Friday's data reinforced their belief that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates again before the successor to Chairman Powell takes office.Next week, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio plans to meet with officials from Denmark and Greenland. The nationwide unrest in Iran (including the capital Tehran) triggered by anti-government protests may also impact market risk sentiment in the short term.

Fidelity's Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer stated that Bitcoin's current trend is more akin to the S-curve of the internet rather than a power law curve. Many Bitcoin supporters claim that the four-year cycle has ended and a new structural uptrend is about to begin. I am skeptical about this, not because I doubt the diminishing impact of the halving cycle (which I agree with), but because I question the assertion that bear markets will no longer occur.Currently, Bitcoin's bottom line is $65,000 (the previous high), while the power law trend line indicates a bottom line of $45,000. Although there is still some distance to the target price, if Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase within the next year, the power law trend line may come closer to $65,000 and could become Bitcoin's line of life and death. However, this may (or may not) be something that happens in the future (or within the next year).