macro

This week, the US stock market is facing a highly overlapping event window: On Tuesday, focus on earnings reports from companies like V, GEV, KO, BA; on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced, along with earnings from MSFT, META, QCOM, ARM, HOOD; on Thursday, the preliminary GDP and June PCE will be released on the same day, with earnings reports from AAPL, AMZN, COIN; on Friday, pay attention to the employment cost index and earnings from XOM, ABBV. WEEX Labs believes that the policy statement, technology earnings, and inflation clues will jointly influence the interest rate path and technology stock valuations, with funds possibly rotating around large tech, AI infrastructure, and interest rate-sensitive sectors, leading to further short-term market volatility. Currently, the WEEX coin stock 0 fee activity is ongoing.

Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode released the report "Charting Crypto Q3 2026," maintaining a neutral outlook on the crypto market.The report shows that on-chain data indicates Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, but the Fed's hawkish stance, weak spot ETF demand, and geopolitical risks continue to pressure the market outlook.

This week, the focus of the U.S. stock market will shift to the second-quarter earnings reports of tech giants such as Alphabet, Tesla, and Intel, while also paying attention to leading indicators, initial jobless claims, and PMI preliminary values. The market will primarily examine AI capital expenditures, consumer resilience, and interest rate expectations. Key events include: on Monday, the release of leading indicators and DPZ's earnings report; on Tuesday, attention to earnings reports from GM, SCHW, and others; on Wednesday, GOOGL and TSLA will release their earnings reports; on Thursday, initial jobless claims data will be released, along with INTC's earnings report; on Friday, PMI preliminary values and new home sales data will be announced.WEEX Labs believes that this week, AI infrastructure, semiconductors, EVs, and the financial sector may become the main directions of market volatility. Investors need to focus on corporate earnings guidance and the signals released by employment data, managing their positions rationally.

According to Jinshi News, Capital Economics stated that the yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds will further narrow in the coming months, and the ongoing escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a complete inversion of the yield curve. The reason for this difference is that the expected rise in short-term real interest rates exceeds that of long-term real interest rates, with the Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points over the next year.

According to the official announcement, Huobi HTX will hold a themed live broadcast today at 20:00 titled "Ceasefire Ended, Oil Prices Soaring Above 75, STRATEGY's First Loss in Selling Coins: Can BTC's Macroeconomic Narrative Hold Up?" At that time, crypto KOLs such as Huabai Blockchain, Honest Little Taoist, Crypto.0824, and OxPink will gather in the live broadcast room to engage in in-depth discussions on recent market hotspots such as the repeated situation in the Middle East and the strong upward trend of international oil prices. They will also analyze BTC's future trends and opportunities and risk management strategies for crypto asset allocation in conjunction with expectations of Federal Reserve policies, providing investors with multi-dimensional market observations and trading ideas.

According to Jinshi reports, Russian President Putin stated that based on macroeconomic indicators, the key interest rate should be lowered.

According to QCP Capital, it has been 12 days since the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, and both sides experienced military conflicts again over the weekend, each accusing the other of violating the 60-day ceasefire agreement, putting pressure on the prospects for the second round of negotiations. Oil prices remain around $70, but if supply recovers slower than expected, there is still an upward risk for oil prices.In the cryptocurrency market, the implied volatility of BTC and ETH continues to rise, with increased demand for BTC put options in the $55,000-$58,000 range expiring in July. There has been a continuous net outflow from spot ETFs, concerns related to Strategy, and the pressure from the US stock market has weighed on market sentiment. However, there was also a significant buying interest in BTC call options at $64,000 expiring on the 17th. This week, the market will focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the ECB forum, as well as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and US non-farm payroll data. Given the low liquidity ahead of the holiday, market volatility is expected to remain high.

According to Jinshi reports, the tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated sharply this week, with mutual attacks leading to the collapse of a fragile ceasefire agreement that had lasted for about three weeks. The inflationary pressure driven by rising oil prices has reignited expectations for the Federal Reserve to tighten its policies. During the same period, U.S. stocks largely ignored geopolitical uncertainties, with the "AI trading" frenzy regaining momentum, as the S&P 500 index approached an all-time high, and both it and the Nasdaq recorded a consecutive weekly gain. SK Hynix's ADR surged 13% on its first day, with a fundraising amount of $26.5 billion, making it the highest fundraising foreign company IPO in U.S. stock market history.In the coming week, the U.S.-Iran situation, U.S. CPI and other economic data, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials will capture Wall Street's attention. There is particular anticipation for whether Federal Reserve Chairman Waller can provide more clues about the interest rate outlook under questioning in Congress, although his determination to cancel forward guidance leaves little room for optimism. The macro data events for next week are as follows:MondayFederal Reserve Governor Waller speaksTuesdayU.S. ADP employment change for the week ending June 27U.S. June CPI and core CPIFederal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the House Financial Services Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearingWednesday2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a fireside chatU.S. June PPI and core PPIFOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams speaksFederal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearingFederal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditionsThursdayU.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, U.S. June retail sales month-on-month, U.S. July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan speaksFederal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson speaks on the economy and monetary policy

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a themed debate titled "Bear Market Trap or Bull Market Start? How to Identify the June Rebound in the Crypto Market with World Cup Enthusiasm + Macroeconomic Warming" today at 20:00 (UTC+8). At that time, the affirmative debaters Crypto Monkey Uncle, Michill, Yang Shao, and Sincere Little Taoist will face off against the negative debaters George, 7w, Meta, and Mike Banana. They will conduct an in-depth discussion from multiple dimensions such as macroeconomics, capital flow, market cycles, and hot narratives, analyzing the driving logic and potential risks behind this round of market trends for investors.

Next week, the market focus will be on the interest rate decisions of several major central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Since taking office as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Waller has remained silent, and the press conference following the June interest rate decision will be a key validation of his monetary policy stance. The market also expects him to send clear signals regarding communication mechanism reforms. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are in Beijing time):Monday 15:15, European Central Bank President Lagarde will deliver a speech;Tuesday TBD, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision; 14:30, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi will hold a monetary policy press conference;Tuesday 20:15, U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending May 30;Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections summary; 2:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller will hold a monetary policy press conference;Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, U.S. June Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.In terms of policy signals, the market is focused on whether three hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve will materialize: first, whether the wording "the next step is likely to be a rate cut" will be removed from the original policy statement. If this wording is removed, it means the Federal Reserve officially ends its previous easing bias and shifts to a policy tone centered on combating inflation. Second, changes in the dot plot; the March dot plot indicated one more rate cut within the year, but this dot plot is likely to shift to show stable rates, and there may even be a situation where a majority of officials expect rate hikes. Finally, there is a tilt in risk preference. If officials' concerns about inflation significantly increase and worries about the labor market diminish, it may pave the way for subsequent rate hikes.On Friday (June 19), due to the Juneteenth holiday, the New York Stock Exchange will be closed for one day. Trading in precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, stock index, and U.S. Treasury futures contracts on the CME will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 20th, and trading in Brent crude oil futures contracts on the Intercontinental Exchange will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 20th.

According to Jinshi reports, after the release of significantly better-than-expected non-farm payroll data on Friday, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes this year surged, causing spot gold to plummet sharply, nearly erasing all gains for the year, marking a fourth consecutive week of declines. Silver's overall trend mirrored that of gold but with slightly stronger volatility, closing down 9.85% for the week. The U.S. dollar index, buoyed by the unexpected non-farm data, rose significantly to just above the 100 mark. Following the non-farm data on Friday, U.S. tech stocks suffered heavy losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1.35%, the S&P 500 index fell 2.65%, marking the largest single-day drop since October 2025; the Nasdaq dropped 4.18%, the largest single-day decline since April 2025.Goldman Sachs believes that the current market sentiment is clearly more greedy than fearful. Deutsche Bank pointed out that the market is highly sensitive to any negative news involving Iran. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are in Beijing time):Monday 23:00, U.S. May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;Tuesday 14:00, Germany April seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month, April seasonally adjusted trade balance;Tuesday 18:00, U.S. May NFIB Small Business Confidence Index;Tuesday 20:15, U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending May 23;Wednesday 20:30, U.S. May unadjusted CPI, May seasonally adjusted CPI/core CPI month-on-month;Wednesday 21:45, Bank of Canada announces interest rate decision;Thursday 20:15, European Central Bank announces interest rate decision;Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 6, May PPI year-on-year/month-on-month;Friday 14:00, Germany May CPI month-on-month final value;Friday 14:45, France May CPI month-on-month final value;Friday 22:00, U.S. June 1-year inflation expectations preliminary value, June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value.In the coming week, the market will face a series of important events, but the most anticipated remains the potential initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX. According to current plans, this transaction may launch on Friday, and if it proceeds, it is expected to have a significant impact on overall market sentiment, although the specific direction is still difficult to determine.In addition to SpaceX, the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference, earnings reports, and TSMC's May sales data may also become important factors influencing market volatility. Next week, U.S. stocks will enter a relatively calm phase of earnings season; although the overall number of reports is not large, heavyweight tech companies Oracle and Adobe will take the stage one after another, becoming the focus of market attention.

According to QCP Capital's latest market report, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 11.6% this week, continuing to be under pressure. Market sentiment has been affected by the rare news of Strategy selling 32 BTC, although the sale size was only about $2.5 million, which had almost no substantial impact on its holdings of over 840,000 coins. However, it broke the long-standing market expectation of Strategy's "never selling coins," weakening the confidence of some investors.On a macro level, the situation is also unfavorable. The escalation of the Middle East situation and the stagnation of US-Iran negotiations have driven oil prices up, with the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz being re-emphasized. Meanwhile, US job vacancy data was stronger than expected, reducing the market's bets on a short-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve and reinforcing the expectation of "higher rates for longer." The options market shows a significant increase in defensive sentiment. The 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV) rose to about 41.4%, with a weekly increase of about 7 volatility points. The risk reversal indicator remains biased negative, with a short-term inverted yield curve reflecting strong demand for downside protection in the market.QCP believes that the current market is not in a panic sell-off but is re-pricing downside risks. Weak spot demand, rising oil prices, increasing real interest rates, and macro uncertainty are collectively suppressing the performance of risk assets. Meanwhile, AI concept stocks and large tech companies continue to attract significant capital inflows, further diverting risk appetite from the crypto market. QCP points out that if BTC cannot regain a foothold in the $67,000 to $68,000 range, the rebound may still face significant selling pressure. The current market is more inclined to purchase downside protection rather than actively increase risk exposure, as investors await a clearer direction from the macro environment between the paths of "soft landing" and "high inflation, high interest rates, low liquidity."

The latest market intelligence report released by the digital asset trading firm Wintermute shows that global financial markets are undergoing a large-scale macroeconomic repricing, with the market narrative shifting from discussions about the timing of interest rate cuts to preparing for potential rate hikes. This structural shift has been triggered by unexpectedly strong economic data and reignited inflationary pressures, creating significant headwinds for digital assets.The report notes that Bitcoin saw a sharp decline after briefly breaking through $83,000, giving back significant gains within a week, while mainstream alternative tokens experienced double-digit percentage drops. Global wealth managers are actively de-risking under macro constraints, highlighting the fragility of digital asset expansion. On-chain trading indicators suggest that the previous price increases were not driven by genuine spot market demand or organic retail accumulation, but rather primarily from short squeezes in the perpetual futures market.The total open interest in Bitcoin derivatives rapidly expanded by $10 billion to $58 billion within a month, while the underlying spot trading volume simultaneously fell to a two-year low. When Bitcoin broke through $80,000, a large number of short positions were forcibly liquidated, triggering a brief buying frenzy, but failed to establish a lasting structural bottom.The main driving factor behind the current market reversal is that global CPI data continues to exceed expectations, reigniting widespread concerns about interest rate hikes. At the same time, ongoing uncertainty surrounding the nomination of the next Federal Reserve chair has injected unpredictability into the market. Despite long-term positive signals, including a recent net inflow of $623 million into spot ETFs and Bitcoin reserves on trading platforms dropping to a seven-year low, Wintermute emphasizes that these long-term trends are insufficient to alleviate recent structural risks.As international asset managers shift capital towards short-term sovereign debt instruments, digital platforms are struggling to maintain momentum. The near-term outlook for the tokenized market will depend on whether genuine spot buyers return to stabilize the weak liquidity gap.

Cryptocurrency analyst Marcel Pechman stated that Bitcoin rapidly fell back after being rejected at $82,000 on Friday, dropping below $79,000. The movement is highly synchronized with the U.S. small-cap stock index, indicating that macro factors are the main driving force behind this round of decline. The Russell 2000 index, which covers small and medium-sized enterprises, has a higher capital cost and is more sensitive to interest rate trends. The high correlation between Bitcoin and this index suggests that the market currently characterizes Bitcoin as a risk asset rather than a safe-haven tool.The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts briefly turned deeply negative on Thursday and remained close to 0% on Friday, with continued absence of long leverage demand—this indicator has been below the neutral threshold of 6% for several weeks. Multiple attempts to breach $82,000 have failed to boost market confidence. Macro pressures have been piling up: the outcome of the U.S.-China summit disappointed the market, with no specific tariff agreements reached aside from a commitment to accelerate U.S. agricultural exports over the next three years; meanwhile, the ongoing war in Iran continues to weigh on market sentiment, with Brent crude oil prices jumping from $99 to $106 in the past week, further exacerbating inflationary pressures.Additionally, the inflation-adjusted Shiller price-to-earnings ratio shows that the S&P 500 index is currently only about 5% lower than its peak during the internet bubble in January 2000, indicating a significant contraction in overall market risk appetite. However, the massive sell-off in the fixed income market may provide mid-term support for Bitcoin. The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to its highest level in over 20 years, while the yield on the Eurozone's 10-year government bonds has also surged to 3.18%, a 15-year high. Analysts believe that in response to recession risks, central banks may be forced to inject liquidity, and funds flowing out of fixed income may ultimately seek other asset allocations, with Bitcoin likely to benefit from this.