momentum

Boosted by the lower-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, Bitcoin (BTC) saw a short-term increase of about 4%, with BTC/USD reaching as high as $68,855 on Bitstamp. Official data shows that the core CPI for January was in line with expectations at 2.5%, while the overall CPI was 2.4%, below the market expectation of 2.5%.Trading analysts pointed out that this is the lowest level of core CPI in years, and market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased. However, CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of a 0.25% rate cut at the March meeting is still less than 10%. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin still faces pressure in the $68,000-$69,000 range, which carries the historical high from 2021 and the 200-week EMA. Analysts believe that BTC is likely to form a higher low in this area; although it is weak in the short term, market momentum may gradually recover. In other markets, gold attempts to return to $5,000 per ounce, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has slightly rebounded, while U.S. stocks closed slightly lower.

Tom Lee stated during an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday that the sell-off in the crypto market may be gradually losing momentum. "All the conditions are in place, and cryptocurrencies may currently be bottoming out," Lee said, adding that he believes the fundamentals of the crypto industry remain strong, particularly emphasizing the increasingly active activity on the Ethereum network. "If that's the case, crypto asset prices should rebound accordingly," Lee said.As of the time of writing, Ethereum has rebounded more than 10% from its earlier low of $2157 today, now priced at $2383.

According to the market analysis weekly report released by Glassnode on Monday, the fund flow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has sharply reversed, showing strong capital inflows, indicating that institutions are re-accumulating positions.Although ETF trading volume has risen accordingly, the increase in holder profits also brings short-term profit-taking risks. Bitcoin has retreated from a recent high of $98,000 to just over $90,000, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) declining but still above neutral levels, indicating it is in a consolidation phase rather than a trend deterioration phase.Spot trading volume has risen moderately, and the net buying and selling imbalance has broken through the upper limit of the statistical range, showing a significant reduction in selling pressure, but demand still appears weak. The slight increase in open interest in futures reflects cautious rebuilding of speculative activity, while the sharp drop in funding rates indicates a decrease in urgency among bulls.The options market continues to price in higher uncertainty, with ongoing demand for downside protection. On-chain activity has stabilized, with the number of active addresses and transfer volumes showing improvement trends, and network fees have risen slightly. The supply from short-term holders remains high, keeping the market sensitive to price fluctuations.Overall, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase, but the strengthening buying power and the return of institutional interest are gradually pushing the market structure towards a more constructive direction.

According to Jinshi reports, Fed's Schmid stated that the current monetary policy is not very tight, and the economy is showing signs of growth.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin briefly rose above $92,000 on Monday due to a criminal investigation by U.S. federal prosecutors into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Analysts are questioning whether the independence of the Federal Reserve might be compromised, which could benefit alternative assets like Bitcoin that are considered scarce.Although this news triggered a brief surge, traders remain cautious overall, primarily influenced by ongoing outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and weak demand for bullish leverage. Even with a recent rebound, Bitcoin is still down about 23% from its peak in October 2025, while gold and silver reached all-time highs in 2026. This divergence in trends has led traders to start questioning whether the narrative of "Bitcoin as a digital store of value" is weakening.The annualized premium of Bitcoin futures (i.e., basis) remains at a neutral to bearish level of about 5%. Generally, when market sentiment truly turns bullish, the premium of Bitcoin futures relative to spot often reaches or exceeds 10%. More importantly, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $1.38 billion over four consecutive trading days.Even more concerning is that despite Strategy increasing its holdings of Bitcoin worth approximately $1.25 billion over the past month, the price of Bitcoin has still failed to effectively hold above $94,000. Overall, the appeal of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies remains sluggish, as reflected in ETF fund flows and weak demand for Bitcoin long positions. This indicates that the probability of an unexpected surge to $105,000 in the short term is relatively low.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin has fallen back to near its opening price at the beginning of the year after rising close to $95,000, and there is even a possibility of dropping below $90,000 within the daily trading timeframe. Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource platform Material Indicators, stated, "Bitcoin's initial breakout attempt has been clearly rejected." He warned this week that bearish forces are at play on higher timeframes. He pointed out that the technical support to watch is concentrated in the $87,500 to $89,000 range.Alan also stated, "With a macro death cross appearing on the weekly chart later this month, I believe any rebound that occurs next should be viewed as a 'high sell event,' unless there is evidence to suggest otherwise." Trader Roman, who has repeatedly warned of macro downside risks for Bitcoin in 2025, reiterated that the short-term target is $76,000, a price last seen in April of this year. Roman said, "Currently around $89,000, the downside continues. I still believe $76,000 will come; all this consolidation is just to reach that position for a reset. I don't see any signs of reversal, and the higher timeframe remains very bearish."

Binance Research pointed out in its cryptocurrency market report that despite the Federal Reserve's easing policies, the cryptocurrency market continues to decline due to cautious investor sentiment. However, as asset management companies continue to increase their holdings, the market dominance of Bitcoin and Ethereum is steadily strengthening. January may become a turning point for bearish momentum, as investors consider reallocating from overvalued asset classes back into cryptocurrencies.In 2025, driven by factors such as monetary easing, AI demand, and a shift towards "commodity control," metals emerged as a standout asset class. Although Bitcoin also benefited from similar macro-positive factors, its performance in the fourth quarter showed divergence due to a lack of "strategic asset premium." However, this divergence may be temporary: as U.S. legislation pushes to institutionalize strategic Bitcoin reserves and potentially shifts from holding seized assets to active fiscal procurement, the valuation framework for Bitcoin is expected to realign with that of strategic metals.Market participants expect that due to tariff shocks, a weak labor market, and a leadership shift towards dovish policies, easing measures will accelerate in 2026, while demanding higher long-term premiums to compensate for "fiscal dominance" and the impending debt pressure exceeding $50 trillion. The steepening yield curve indicates that the market does not endorse the Federal Reserve's "soft landing" narrative, creating an excellent opportunity for Bitcoin to benefit from both the influx of short-term cheap liquidity and the erosion of long-term fiat credit.Since their launch, altcoin ETFs have mostly attracted net inflows, accumulating over $2 billion, with XRP and SOL leading the way, while other assets contributed smaller but steady inflows. In contrast, since October, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have consistently experienced net outflows, highlighting the divergence in marginal demand as market momentum slows.Although it is still in the early stages, the approval of more altcoin ETFs and ongoing inflows may increasingly impact liquidity distribution, especially if broader market inflows accelerate again. In 2025, six newly launched stablecoins surpassed a market capitalization of $1 billion. As stablecoins continue to be adopted globally, their related metrics are increasingly becoming important indicators of global financial activity.

Analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta stated that gold prices continue to be supported by geopolitical tensions and weak U.S. data, with bullish momentum remaining solid. However, Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll report may pose a challenge to this. Although the credibility of the previous report was questionable due to issues related to the government shutdown, this data should provide a clearer economic picture.If the data is strong, it could lead to a significant pullback in gold prices, as traders may delay expectations for an upcoming rate cut by the Federal Reserve; conversely, if the data is weak, it should continue to support gold prices upward. Additionally, the U.S. Supreme Court has set Friday as the opinion release day, which may result in a ruling on Trump's tariff policy. If the tariff measures are overturned, the alleviation of stagflation risks could lead to a decline in gold prices. On the other hand, if the tariffs remain unchanged, while it may not trigger significant fluctuations, it will still support the upward trend in gold prices.

"1011 Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin posted on the X platform, stating that, as previously analyzed, the prices of gold and silver have peaked. After the U.S. market opened, funds have started to shift towards the cryptocurrency market. Even with a sell-off in the stock market after opening, cryptocurrencies continue to rise.The inflow of funds may persist, and the upward momentum could accelerate, leading to a short squeeze without any pullback.

Monad tweeted that the Monad Momentum application is now open. Selected Monad developers will receive funding support for conducting user acquisition campaigns. The deadline for the second round of applications is December 31, and results will be communicated to applicants by January 13.

According to Newsbtc, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson believes that the competitive landscape between Solana and Ethereum will vary due to the different time spans. Solana may quickly gain an advantage due to its rapid development speed, while Ethereum tends to build a broader, slower-developing system, which may have a greater impact in the future.Hoskinson stated that the Solana network processes a large number of transactions daily and can upgrade more quickly. This speed advantage helps project teams bring tokenized stocks and other financial instruments on-chain. It has been reported that the total value of tokenized stocks on the Solana platform has recently reached approximately $185 million.

Greeks.Live researcher Adam posted on social media that at the recently concluded Federal Reserve meeting, a 25 basis point rate cut was expected, and the Fed announced it would restart the purchase of $40 billion in short-term U.S. Treasury bills (T-bills). The dovish stance can effectively supplement the liquidity of the financial system, which undoubtedly is a clear positive for the market.However, it is too early to mention that QE will restart the bull market. With Christmas and year-end settlements approaching, this time of year has historically been the period of lowest liquidity in the crypto market, with reduced market activity and limited momentum for a bull market restart.From the cryptocurrency options data, there is currently over 50% of the options positions accumulated for the end of December, with BTC's maximum pain point at the $100,000 integer level and ETH's maximum pain point at $3,200. The implied volatility for the main expiration this month is showing a downward trend, and the market's expectations for volatility this month are gradually decreasing.In summary, the crypto market is currently quite weak, with poor liquidity at the end of the year and a gloomy market sentiment. A slow decline is the most mainstream view in the options market, but at the same time, one should also be wary of sudden positive news that could lead to a reversal.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel posted on social media that Bitcoin has restored its bullish structure after pulling back to the $80,000 level. This trend is set against the backdrop of the market having almost fully priced in the Federal Reserve's third consecutive rate cut, which will improve financial conditions and open a window for further asset appreciation, provided that Powell has not released any hawkish surprises.Since the pullback to the $80,000 range from the peak in October, the price has shown a steady upward trend over the past 14 days. The key signal is that the slope of the 200-day moving average (DMA) (blue bars) has turned positive for the first time in a month, indicating that short-term bullish momentum has returned. The current price has risen above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, confirming the trend. The 52-week high (orange line) constitutes a key resistance level—once broken, it will open up space for further gains.

According to Cointelegraph, 21Shares founder Ophelia Snyder stated that January typically sees a "peak of inflows" for Bitcoin, as investors rebalance and adjust their portfolios at the beginning of the year, which also affects exchange-traded funds. However, the current market conditions will make it difficult for Bitcoin to replicate the price surge seen in early 2025 in 2026: the factors contributing to current market volatility are unlikely to be fully resolved in the short term, and whether the same performance can be achieved again next January largely depends on overall market sentiment.

Matrixport released a daily analysis indicating that the Bitcoin price encountered resistance at the key level of $92,000, with upward momentum significantly slowing down.Although the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts next week, related ETFs have only seen a slight net inflow, with overall funding remaining weak. At the same time, signals of tightening Japanese monetary policy have heightened market unease, with the 2-year Japanese government bond yield surpassing 1% for the first time since 2008, prompting investors to reassess the consistency of major global central banks' easing measures. Analysts believe that even if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance, it will be difficult to offset tightening expectations from other economies, resulting in an overall policy environment that remains tight, leading institutional investors to continue reducing their Bitcoin exposure.

Delphi Digital analysts published an analysis on platform X regarding the current bullish and bearish structures forming for BTC. The bullish scenario views the current movement as an ABC correction, which needs to effectively complete and break above $103,500 to be confirmed. The bearish scenario suggests that any rebound forming a lower high below $103,500 will trigger the next wave of decline, completing a full 5-wave downward impulse, after which a larger-scale sustained rebound may occur. Additionally, USDT's dominance is breaking through a long-term downtrend, and its supply is contracting on a weekly basis, which is not the typical backdrop seen before a sustained price increase.