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first_img SK Hynix's partial HBM4 backend equipment orders may be postponed until next year

According to DealSite, storage chip manufacturer SK Hynix is expanding the mass production of the sixth-generation high bandwidth memory HBM4. However, some industry insiders believe that the expansion speed is slower than expected, and some equipment orders planned for this year may be postponed until next year.Industry insiders stated that some equipment originally scheduled for delivery in the second half of this year has shown signs of delay, and subsequent order plans have not yet been clarified. An anonymous source indicated that some equipment originally planned for this year may be pushed to next year, and there is no data confirming whether the delivered equipment is operating at full capacity. The investment plans related to HBM4 for next year have not been specifically communicated to some partners, and this year's orders have largely been completed, but there are no clear signals of increased or decreased investment. Reports suggest that the direct correlation between the equipment investment schedule and product quality issues has not yet been confirmed.Liu Henggen, a researcher at Daxin Securities, believes that concerns about major customers' HBM4 quality issues leading to performance below expectations are excessive. There may have been some issues in the backend process, but they cannot be regarded as insurmountable risks, and it is not yet time to discuss bad compensation. There are also industry claims that, against the backdrop of rising prices for general memory, some HBM investments may shift towards general memory. SK Hynix plans to prioritize the introduction of DRAM production equipment into the first cleanroom of the Yongin cluster Y1 wafer fab, and the industry expects that the initial production line will adopt the sixth-generation 10-nanometer 1c process, with the new capacity being prioritized for general DRAM. Some opinions also suggest that changes in the schedule of certain backend equipment are insufficient to determine that HBM4 mass production is hindered, as SK Hynix has already supplied HBM4 16-layer samples to major customers.

first_img StoneX raises the target price for Securitize to $18, as the tokenized stock platform opens new revenue streams

Investment bank StoneX has raised the target price for the tokenization platform Securitize from $12 to $18, an increase of 50%, while maintaining the buy rating given by analyst Mark Palmer. This adjustment comes on the first trading day after the launch of Securitize Stocks, which saw the stock drop by as much as 10% in early trading on Monday, with the new target price still about 45% higher than the stock price at that time. Palmer noted that although SECZ's stock price rose last week due to the news of the platform's launch, the market still views it as a tokenization service provider, while the company has actually evolved into a market operator.StoneX pointed out that in the second quarter, Securitize's trading volume of $5.3 billion generated most of its tokenization revenue from integration fees, with the trading volume itself being almost unmonetized. The launch of Securitize Stocks is expected to change this situation, allowing the company to start charging fees from trading and services, and potentially earning collateral-related income in the future. Last week, the platform introduced stocks such as Apple, NVIDIA, and Tesla to Solana, with transactions settled in USDC, and the tokens backed one-to-one by the underlying stocks, allowing holders to enjoy dividends and shareholder rights.StoneX expects Securitize's revenue to approach $120 million in 2027, growing to about $198.5 million in 2028, with an annual growth rate of approximately 65%. Based on Palmer's target price of $18, the corresponding enterprise value to revenue multiple for the 2028 forecast is about 14.5 times. The firm believes that as the scale of tokenized stock trading fees expands, the company's revenue structure will shift from one-time integration fees to ongoing trading and service charges.

first_img NEXTPredict invested $12,000 to hedge against flight cancellation risks at Kalshi

The media and conference organization NEXTPredict announced that it has executed the first trade in the flight cancellation market through Kalshi to hedge investments for its October summit, locking in $3 million in guarantees. The company paid a premium of $12,000, and if the cancellation rate of flights arriving at New York's Kennedy International Airport on October 21 exceeds 50%, the contract will automatically pay out, covering the summit costs, as October 21 is the main travel day for attendees. Susquehanna acted as the market maker for this transaction.Kalshi launched the flight cancellation market after self-certifying the contract with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on July 14, allowing participants to trade on whether the cancellation volume at specific airports exceeds preset thresholds. This market does not target individual flights and has clear anti-manipulation clauses. NEXTPredict is a media and event platform focused on the global prediction market industry, launched by the NEXT.io team. Its flagship event, the "Global Prediction Market Summit," will be held from October 22 to 23, 2026, at Convene Hudson Yards in New York, bringing together founders, executives, investors, and policymakers.NEXTPredict and Kalshi position this trade as institutional hedging, similar to how airlines hedge against fuel costs or farmers hedge against crop yields, rather than betting on the fate of the summit.

first_img Ark Invest maintains a bullish outlook on Bitcoin for the next five years, stablecoins change the narrative in emerging markets

According to Bitcoin Magazine, Lorenzo Valente, the Director of Digital Asset Research at Ark Invest, stated in a video interview with Bitcoin Magazine that despite Bitcoin's lackluster performance and even decline this year, Ark Invest has not changed its long-term view, still considering Bitcoin over a five-year cycle and believing its development is still in the early stages. He also introduced Ark's Big Ideas report and discussed Bitcoin's role as digital gold and a permissionless currency.Valente pointed out that the rise of stablecoins has changed Ark's judgment on the emerging market Bitcoin narrative. He also talked about the rise of tokenized stocks and real-world assets, as well as the functionalities that tokenized stocks can achieve that traditional brokerage accounts cannot.Additionally, he mentioned the impact of rising interest rates, inflation, and AI on Bitcoin's macro outlook, and explored which tokenized business models will ultimately prevail, as well as the possibility of tokenizing U.S. assets for offshore markets.Regarding the market outlook, Valente provided Ark's perspective on Bitcoin's future over the next 12 to 18 months and discussed the four-year cycle and key points to watch moving forward. Ark's Big Ideas report set a Bitcoin price target for 2030, and the reasons why institutional funds are still on the sidelines were also among the topics he discussed.

Bitfinex: Bitcoin needs to wait for CPI to catalyze a return to $84,500, with short-term focus on $81,300 support

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that whether Bitcoin can regain the $84,500 level this week will depend on whether the U.S. CPI data changes market expectations for interest rates and yields, as well as whether spot market buying can follow up.This round of correction is similar to multiple adjustments during the previous recovery phase, and investors with holding costs within the original trading range have not shown significant selling. However, spot buying remains a weak link in the current market, with Bitcoin ETF investors' average holding cost around $84,340, and the current price is below this level, leading some investors to potentially sell as the rebound approaches their cost level.Analysts believe that if this week's core CPI month-on-month increase is 0.2% or lower, it may reduce market interest rate hike expectations and drive yields down, providing room for BTC to rise; if the core CPI reaches 0.3% or higher, it may continue to suppress the performance of risk assets. BTC may fluctuate in the range of $81,300 to $84,500 in the short term.If the price breaks through and stabilizes above $84,500, while ETF fund flows are strong, the market may retest the year-to-date opening level of $87,722; if it falls below $81,300 with continued capital outflow, it may further dip to around $77,400, the true market average level.
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