ChainCatcher news, QCP released today's briefing stating, "Despite the escalating tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin has yet to show signs of widespread panic. After an initial shock triggered by Iran-Israel related news last Friday, the benchmark cryptocurrency has recovered, bouncing back from a weekly low of $102,800 to $107,000.The resilient price performance of Bitcoin seems to be supported by ongoing institutional accumulation. Notably, Metaplanet and Strategy have been consistently buying the dips, while the spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded inflows for the seventh consecutive week. The market appears to have regained its footing, especially after Bitcoin managed to hold the key psychological threshold of $100,000 despite experiencing initial shocks.More broadly, in the face of rising geopolitical risks, the market has shown remarkable calm. Bitcoin's recent implied volatility has remained below 40, while the VIX index hovers around 20. Given the current backdrop, both levels are historically relatively subdued. There has been an inflow of funds into U.S. Treasuries and a range of Asian government bonds, highlighting that the market has not fully shifted to a risk-off mode.However, cautious sentiment still lurks beneath the surface. Iran's potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a spike in oil prices, and further escalation or direct U.S. military intervention could severely disrupt global risk assets.There are also views suggesting that these risks may in themselves constitute a structural positive for Bitcoin. With the asset's trading price only about 6% lower than its all-time high, recent price action has reinforced the narrative that Bitcoin adoption is driven by macro turmoil, rising sovereign debt burdens, and geopolitical vulnerabilities."

ChainCatcher news, QCP released a briefing on Israel's preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, reportedly resulting in the death of IRGC commander Salami, triggering a surge in global market risk aversion. BTC fell about 3%, while ETH dropped even more, around 9%, and oil prices soared by as much as 11%.Market volatility has surged sharply, with BTC front-end put option premiums reaching up to 5 volatility points, indicating a spike in demand for downside protection. S&P 500 futures fell below the psychological level of 6000 points, while widespread internet outages exacerbated market concerns, with Cloudflare and Google Cloud service disruptions affecting several tech companies.Today, the crypto market is facing a significant options expiration, with 28,000 BTC options and 244,000 ETH options expiring, with notional values of $2.93 billion and $620 million, respectively. Market volatility triggered over $1 billion in long liquidations, but BTC showed relative resilience, reflecting sustained institutional demand.DeFi Development Corp announced a $5 billion equity financing to purchase $SOL, demonstrating institutional confidence in mainstream crypto assets remains strong. The market is currently focused on Tehran's reaction, as geopolitical risks will dominate the short-term market direction.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated in an official channel that the market welcomes the tentative progress in Sino-U.S. relations. President Trump announced a partial withdrawal of the proposed tariff increase plan, and the agreement has entered its final stage, awaiting formal approval. However, the optimistic sentiment remains subdued. The U.S. Secretary of Commerce has taken a hard stance on technology exports, clearly stating that the U.S. "will not provide China with advanced chips." This highlights the trend of divergence in the global supply chain, as the market increasingly incorporates this factor into the pricing considerations of cross-border trade dynamics.Geopolitical tensions have escalated again, as nuclear negotiations have stalled, and the U.S. begins to withdraw diplomatic personnel from the Middle East. Reports indicate that Washington has received warnings about Israel potentially striking Iranian nuclear facilities, triggering a sharp reaction in the oil market. Brent crude oil rose by 7%-9% during the day, as investors shifted to defensive assets, leading to a sell-off of risk assets.Additionally, speculation about Bessent potentially succeeding Jerome Powell as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve has intensified but was quickly downplayed. Bessent publicly reiterated his commitment to serve at the Treasury until 2029. Meanwhile, after U.S. CPI data came in below expectations, President Trump once again pressured the Federal Reserve to "fully cut rates by 100 basis points," citing the unsustainable high cost of debt servicing.In summary, QCP Capital believes that despite a slight pullback, the macro environment remains favorable for institutions to further engage in digital assets and capital allocation.

ChainCatcher news reports that QCP published an analysis stating that against the backdrop of the resumption of US-China trade negotiations, Bitcoin once surged, successfully breaking through the $110,000 mark. However, as this negotiation did not achieve any substantial breakthroughs, market enthusiasm quickly cooled, like a flash in the pan. Just as Bitcoin's popularity faded, Ethereum quietly gained momentum, reclaiming the dominant narrative in the market.From market data, Ethereum's implied volatility shows an upward trend, and the options skew has also shifted towards a bullish direction. At the same time, its ETF inflow performance has been quite significant, with an inflow of $281 million last week, and another $52.7 million flowing in yesterday. This series of data fully indicates that institutional investors' interest in Ethereum is steadily rising, with attention continuously increasing.Additionally, as the GENIUS Act steadily progresses in the US Senate, discussions about Circle's initial public offering (IPO) have been restarted, and stablecoins have received some support from regulators, Ethereum's important role as a tokenization and settlement infrastructure is becoming increasingly prominent, likely ushering in structural upward opportunities and demonstrating greater development potential in the future market.

ChainCatcher news, QCP released a briefing stating, "The unexpected rise in job vacancies has boosted risk sentiment, bringing the S&P 500 index close to the psychologically significant 6000-point mark ahead of Friday's key non-farm payroll data. Stable non-farm payroll data will reinforce the Federal Reserve's narrative about the resilience of the labor market, strengthening market expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged.In terms of trade, the market remains in a wait-and-see mode, anticipating the expected China-U.S. talks. Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a decrease in short-term volatility, with spot prices maintaining around the familiar $105,000 level; the 1-month implied volatility has dropped below 40 volatility. In the interest rate market, trading volumes for China's 10-year and 30-year government bond futures have fallen to their lowest levels since February, reflecting a broader risk-averse sentiment and a wait-and-see attitude.Bitcoin continues to oscillate within a range, with light positions and normalized skew indicating a lack of clear directional conviction in the market. Since May, the volatility curve has flattened from the mid to long end, reflecting a similar downward trend to the VIX index, prompting some investors to engage in opportunistic long volatility trades. Notably, the $130,000 call options expiring in September traded at a 47 volatility, indicating localized interest in upside before the third quarter.Looking ahead, the third quarter may be more challenging. Tariff-related impacts may begin to seep into macro data, while fiscal risks surrounding the "Build Back Better" (BBB) plan and the debt ceiling could trigger potential news-driven volatility. In the absence of clear catalysts, Bitcoin is unlikely to break out significantly from its current range."

ChainCatcher news, QCP released a briefing stating that the global financial markets have entered a period of calm, with the volatility of most asset classes continuing to decline, and the market's reaction to negative news has weakened. U.S. Treasury yields fell back after last week's "beautiful bill" raised fiscal concerns, with the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields dropping below 4.5% and 5.0%, respectively. The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds also fell below 3%, but remains at historically high levels.Market attention has shifted to the U.S. Treasury auction in June and the 40-year bonds issued by the Japanese Ministry of Finance today. The current economy is in a "moderate" state, and the impact of last month's tariff policy has not yet fully manifested, with expectations that it will be reflected in the data in the third quarter.At the same time, Senator Lummis's extensive remarks on stablecoins and Bitcoin as a strategic reserve have reignited hopes for progress in cryptocurrency policy. According to reports, Trump Media plans to raise $2.5 billion and join the ranks of companies establishing Bitcoin reserves. If the meeting generates momentum, more companies may follow suit, providing new structural buying support for the market.

ChainCatcher news, QCP released a briefing indicating that risk sentiment continues to fluctuate. Trump suddenly proposed raising EU tariffs on goods from 20% to 50%, which was then postponed to July 9, temporarily stabilizing the market. The volatility gap of BTC from June to July has compressed to below 1, suggesting that the market expects policy changes again. In terms of inflation, although oil prices have retreated, port congestion has spread from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region, which may drive up shipping costs and trigger a new round of indirect inflation.BTC rebounded to $110,000 after dropping to $106,000 over the weekend. BlackRock's IBIT has seen net inflows for 30 consecutive days, while TQQQ Nasdaq ETF continues to experience outflows, indicating a divergence in sentiment between crypto assets and tech stocks. In an environment of policy instability, the cryptocurrency market has shown relatively mature performance.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated that the New Taiwan Dollar surged 8% this Monday, and other Asia-Pacific currencies like the Korean Won also generally strengthened. The spot rate of the New Taiwan Dollar and the one-year forward contract spread reached a 20-year high. This is mainly driven by rising market speculation regarding the US-Taiwan trade agreement, as well as Taiwanese insurance institutions increasing their dollar asset hedging.QCP believes this could be an early signal of a global capital flow adjustment, similar to the significant volatility in the Japanese Yen last year due to interest rate differentials. Meanwhile, gold prices also rose nearly 3% on Monday, reflecting market concerns over a weakening dollar and geopolitical risks. In the future, Bitcoin may be affected by this, either decoupling from gold trends or benefiting from progress in trade negotiations, with the foreign exchange market potentially becoming a barometer for macro changes.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital released a market analysis indicating that the macro data published last Friday provided a detailed snapshot of the U.S. economy. Non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, exceeding the expected 133,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. However, behind the strong data, economists continue to warn that the full economic impact of recent tariff increases has yet to be seen, and the market remains cautiously optimistic about this.Meanwhile, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at this week's policy meeting. Despite the first-quarter losses reaching a record high, Strategy has doubled its fundraising target to $84 billion. This loss was due to the adoption of new digital asset fair value accounting standards, highlighting the company's firm belief in its long-term Bitcoin strategy. At the same time, the steady inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs indicates that institutional demand remains strong and reinforces the growing role of this asset in diversified portfolios.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital analysis pointed out that President Trump suspended his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell this week and promised to significantly reduce the high tariffs on Chinese goods by 145%, leading to a warming market sentiment. Bitcoin responded by rising, reaching as high as $94,500 during the day, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains, and briefly surpassing Google's parent company Alphabet to become the fifth largest asset in the world.Institutions continue to increase their positions, further solidifying Bitcoin's market capitalization status. The $95,000 call options are actively traded, indicating that the market is betting on further upward movement. Current market sentiment is overheated, and in the short term, it may fluctuate in the range of $90,000 to $94,500, waiting for a catalytic event to break through $100,000.

ChainCatcher news, the encrypted investment institution QCP Capital stated that Bitcoin broke through $87,000 in the early Asian session, reversing the sell-off triggered by Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement. This rebound stands in stark contrast to last December's "Christmas rally." At the same time, gold has also risen to new highs due to the trade war and a weakening dollar. Against the backdrop of a declining stock market and an expanded drop in April, the narrative of Bitcoin as a safe-haven or inflation-hedging tool has gained renewed attention. If the trend continues, it may provide new momentum for institutional allocation to Bitcoin.Signs of institutional confidence returning have emerged, with a net inflow of $13.4 million into Bitcoin ETFs last week, contrasting with a net outflow of $708 million the previous week. The options market has shown more balanced positions, and the risk reversal indicator is stabilizing. As Europe is still on holiday, the market may need a few days to confirm the trend, and the correlation between Bitcoin, gold, and the stock market is worth close attention. Currently, the focus is on the key resistance level of $88,800, and a cautious stance is maintained before any breakout.

ChainCatcher news, QCP released its daily market observation stating that after a week of tariff edge policies, risk assets have begun to stabilize, breaking free from barriers that could have dealt a heavy blow to Sino-U.S. trade. The U.S. has imposed tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese imports, while China retaliated with tariffs of 125%, escalating to a level where the market is no longer surprised by further intensification. The enormous scale of these tariffs makes them more symbolic than market-driven factors, contrasting sharply with the panic triggered in the early days of "Liberation Day."After Friday's close, the Trump administration quietly exempted the latest tariffs on smartphones, computers, and chips. Despite the ongoing stalemate, risk assets are pricing in optimistic sentiment, even as the U.S. seems to be negotiating not only with China but also with the bond market and itself.In the crypto market, Bitcoin's risk reversal remains biased towards bearish options until June, indicating that the market still appears somewhat cautious in the short term. However, long-term sentiment is becoming more positive. On Saturday, we observed aggressive buying of 800 contracts of BTC-27MAR26-100k-C. Bitcoin continues to consolidate in the $80,000 to $90,000 range, possibly continuing to trade sideways while adopting a "wait and see" strategy regarding the tariff situation.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital stated in an official channel that Trump announced on Wednesday a 10% tariff on all imported goods and launched a "reciprocal tariff" policy targeting countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S., reigniting global trade tensions.As a result:BTC fell from an intraday high of $88,500 to $81,200, a decline of over 8%The cryptocurrency market saw massive liquidations, with long positions liquidated exceeding $221 millionU.S. stock futures plummeted, with Nasdaq futures down 4.28% and S&P 500 futures down 3.38%Consumer stocks with high supply chain exposure were hit hard, with American Eagle plunging 17.47%The market is currently focusing on the upcoming non-farm payroll report. Amid expectations of an economic slowdown, the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement four rate cuts in 2025, with cuts of 25 basis points each in June, July, September, and December.In the options market, short-term volatility remains high, and demand for downside protection has increased, reflecting cautious market sentiment. However, analysts believe that a rebound may occur in the short term as risk assets are generally oversold.

ChainCatcher news, QCP recently released a market analysis stating that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the S&P 500 index have just recorded their worst quarterly performance in three years, with the cryptocurrency market capitalization evaporating by over $160 billion since Friday. The pullback on Friday was attributed to the expiration of quarterly options, leading traders to actively sell, causing perpetual contract funding rates to turn negative. Meanwhile, core inflation data came in higher than expected, and consumer spending remains sluggish.The market is paying attention to Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff policy on April 2. Against the backdrop of consumer confidence hitting a 12-year low and the stock market experiencing a weekly decline of 4-5%, aggressive tariffs may exacerbate recession fears. However, if the policy measures are less aggressive than expected, it could provide some relief to the market. In terms of volatility, the VIX remains at a high level of 22, while cryptocurrency volatility is declining. Trading desks indicate a bullish sentiment dominating before the Asian market opens, with investors buying upside options and selling downside risks.Although April has historically been a strong month for cryptocurrencies, the market outlook remains cautious, potentially digesting macro risks in a sideways consolidation. Key events this week include ISM data, non-farm payroll reports, and Powell's speech.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital released a market analysis stating that as volatility further declines, risk assets continue to rise.Since briefly falling below $77,000 last week, BTC has surged 15%, while other cryptocurrencies have generally outperformed the market during the same period. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy remains a focal point of attention.Trump hinted at further tariff measures before the April 2 deadline; however, the market remains unclear about the scope, timing, and scale of these potential actions. It is expected that there will be more sideways fluctuations before this, with BTC having further growth potential in the short term, as GameStop (GME) has added Bitcoin to their treasury.

ChainCatcher news, according to QCP's analysis, believes that the recent stock market rally is a tactical rebound brought about by asset managers reallocating risk assets, rather than a shift based on any macro fundamentals.The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and the broader political landscape remains a focal point for the market. Trump hinted at more tariff measures before the April 2 deadline. However, the market still lacks a clear understanding of the scope, timing, and magnitude of these potential actions. Before this, we expect the market to continue exhibiting sideways fluctuations.In the digital asset space, we believe that Bitcoin has room for tactical performance advantages in the short term. Surprisingly, GameStop has incorporated Bitcoin into its balance sheet. While this is not the first instance of corporate adoption of cryptocurrency, GameStop's symbolic significance as a "meme stock" may reignite retail investors' speculative enthusiasm. As the market performance in 2021 reminded us, if coordinated, retail capital flows have the ability to challenge institutional investors' positions.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital published an analysis stating that one of the fastest declines in the U.S. stock market may have passed, with JPMorgan and an increasing number of strategists telling their clients that improved market sentiment and historically favorable seasonal factors are working together.Boosted by Trump's comments on tariff exemptions, BTC briefly broke through $88,000, leading to a short-term market rebound. Although the second quarter is typically one of the strongest periods for risk assets, the options market remains cautious, with bullish skew expected to become evident only in June. Investors are focused on this Friday's quarterly options expiration and the upcoming PCE inflation data, which may become the next key catalyst.

ChainCatcher news, QCP Capital's latest analysis indicates that last week, the net inflow of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) was 8,775 Bitcoins (approximately $744 million), reversing the previous trend of net outflows for several weeks.Driven by this influx of funds, the cryptocurrency market saw a slight rebound over the weekend, with Bitcoin and Ethereum respectively breaking back above $85,000 and $2,000. The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index improved from 32% last week to 45% this week, indicating a relief in market risk aversion sentiment.Analysis shows that this rebound is mainly driven by real spot demand rather than leverage, as the open interest in perpetual contracts remains sluggish and funding rates stay stable. However, QCP maintains a cautious attitude towards sustained upward breakthroughs, reminding investors to pay attention to the upcoming tariff escalation on April 2, which may put pressure on risk assets.

ChainCatcher message, Bitcoin rebounded over 5% from below $83,000 after the Federal Reserve announced a slowdown in tapering, briefly breaking above $87,000.QCP Capital analysts pointed out that trader sentiment is turning bullish, as call options have become more expensive, or there is higher demand for calls compared to puts, contrasting with earlier this week. However, Amberdata's derivatives director Greg Magadini believes that macro uncertainty still exists, and the options skew may shift back to bearish. (Note: The so-called "skew" refers to the difference in volatility between put and call options in the options market.)

ChainCatcher news, QCP published on its official channel stating that last night's FOMC meeting brought a long-awaited bullish catalyst to the market, pushing Bitcoin prices to break through $85,000 with a significant increase. The Federal Reserve decided to start tapering its "quantitative tightening" plan from April. The market interpreted this as an indirect rate cut, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may begin easing policies as early as June.As of the writing of this article, the market anticipates three rate cuts in 2025, scheduled for June, September, and December. Aside from the current excitement, the Fed's tone is noticeably cautious. Policymakers have lowered the economic growth forecast to 1.7% (a reduction of 0.4 percentage points), while raising the inflation forecast to 2.8%, indicating that the risk of stagflation is rising. Additionally, the Fed's dot plot shows a more hawkish shift compared to last December, with the number of officials expecting no rate cuts in 2025 increasing to four.In the options market, market positioning has returned to normal, with skew shifting back towards call options. This contrasts sharply with earlier this week when skew was leaning towards put options. The key test now will come when the U.S. market opens tonight.