quant

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that as BTC returns to around $82,000, the open interest of Binance Bitcoin contracts has increased by nearly 8% in the past 24 hours, surpassing $10 billion, and reaching a new high in nearly 6 months.The open interest measured in BTC has also risen to 125,830 coins.

The G7 Cybersecurity Working Group stated in its latest report that quantum computing poses security threats to both public and private institutions, as well as economic threats, and relevant organizations should begin migrating to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) immediately. The working group noted that the migration process could take several years, and attackers can currently collect and store encrypted data to decrypt it once sufficiently powerful quantum computers become available.Quantum computing may also break digital signatures, leading to identity theft and exposing businesses and their supply chains. The report did not mention cryptocurrencies, but similar public key cryptography is used for blockchain wallets and transaction authorizations. Currently, quantum computers are unable to break Bitcoin's cryptography, but developers are considering post-quantum solutions such as BIP-360. Ethereum researchers plan to replace several cryptographic components used by accounts, validators, and applications. The Solana Foundation has tested post-quantum signatures on its testnet and launched an optional hash-based vault. The G7 working group also urged governments to support relevant research, public-private collaboration, and national PQC strategies.

QuFi Network launched a post-quantum verification platform and completed proof of concept on the Bitcoin testnet.The platform aims to address the security threats of quantum computing to crypto assets at a low cost by separating verification from settlement.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the "Elon Musk Tweet Count Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "220-239" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 55% an hour ago to the current 72% (a fluctuation of 17%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Bitcoin.com, Fidelity Digital Assets has released an analysis report indicating that future quantum computers may derive Bitcoin private keys from exposed public keys, threatening asset security. Existing Bitcoin transactions rely on elliptic curve digital signature algorithms or Schnorr signatures, and sufficiently powerful quantum computers running Shor's algorithm could break this cryptographic assumption.The report evaluates the SHRINCS post-quantum signature scheme as a potential upgrade path—providing a compact 48-byte public key, with state signature sizes ranging from 548 to 4,619 bytes, and a 5,777-byte stateless fallback path to address state loss. However, quantum-resistant signatures will significantly increase transaction data size, consume more block space, reduce network throughput, and drive up transaction fees during congestion. Implementing such upgrades will require new consensus rules (possibly through a soft fork) and broad support from wallets, miners, exchanges, and custodians. In July of this year, Fidelity co-funded a $15 million Bitcoin security program with eight other institutions, covering anti-quantum research.

The Binance contract platform will launch the HK0625USDT Quanto perpetual contract on September 1, 2026, at 10:45, with a maximum leverage of up to 20 times, supporting a multi-asset model.

StarkWare successfully tested quantum-resistant transactions on the Bitcoin network, marking a further enhancement of Bitcoin's technological defense capabilities against the threat of quantum computing.

Cryptoquant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju stated that the peak of the current Bitcoin bull market cycle may be driven by institutional funds and ETF demand outside the United States. He pointed out that deeper stablecoin liquidity and tokenized asset infrastructure will expand global market participation. Using South Korea as an example, Ki Young Ju mentioned that the country currently does not have a spot Bitcoin ETF, retail investors cannot purchase overseas-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, and most companies are unable to open trading accounts to buy BTC. South Korea has phased in corporate participation, with the Financial Services Commission (FSC) roadmap covering about 3,500 listed companies and qualified professional investors, but financial institutions and other companies are still excluded.Strategy's Bitcoin bank evaluated 25 major institutions covering trading, custody, digital asset products, financing, and corporate participation, with an overall adoption rate of 32%. RWA.xyz data shows that the global tokenized asset distributed asset value is $38.63 billion, an increase of 2.65% compared to 30 days ago. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) stated that stablecoins have the potential to enable faster, programmable payments, but current designs may pose risks to financial integrity, liquidity, and currency. Ki Young Ju pointed out that the cumulative net inflow before the launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF was about $57 billion over two years, and the next phase will be global institutionalization, with more institutions adopting BTC as a strategic asset, and countries lacking ETFs will also improve related investment channels.

Ayo Akinyele, Senior Director of Engineering at Ripple, stated that the company is developing a four-phase quantum-resistant migration plan for the XRP Ledger, aiming to complete the transition before quantum computers become a real threat. The plan includes assessing the network's exposure, testing quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions, running existing security systems in parallel with quantum-resistant alternatives, and preparing emergency response pathways for scenarios where quantum computing advances exceed expectations.Akinyele emphasized that migration is not just about replacing a cryptographic algorithm, but requires more flexible infrastructure, stronger key management, and clearer upgrade paths. The XRP Ledger has supported changing the keys that control accounts without altering the accounts themselves, a feature that is expected to reduce the difficulty of future migrations, but independent validators on the network still need to coordinate any broader rule changes.Meanwhile, Anthropic's model last month reduced the workload required to break leading post-quantum signature candidates by 67 million times, and Bitcoin and Ethereum developers also released their respective migration plans this week. Akinyele pointed out that AI and quantum computing are different technologies, but they are driving financial infrastructure to evolve in the same direction, as AI agents begin to trade and pay autonomously, raising new requirements for payment infrastructure that is always online and natively internet-based.

Samsung Electronics has launched the passport-type foldable smartphone Galaxy Z Fold8 this year, and the supply of display driver chips (DDI) is tight. The demand for Z Fold8 has exceeded expectations, and Samsung is increasing component orders. However, this DDI is designed by Samsung's System LSI Division and produced by Taiwan's foundry UMC using a 22-nanometer process, which has reached its production capacity limit, making it difficult to advance the production schedule.Industry insiders say that UMC's 22-nanometer production line is also manufacturing other chips, and Samsung's request for super urgent service was rejected. Samsung plans to prioritize the DDI quantity originally reserved for development next year for mass production this year. The typical time from wafer to finished product takes about 4 months, and the finished product is then assembled after being bonded with Samsung's OLED. Samsung is also increasing orders for hinges and ultra-thin glass (UTG). The demand for Z Flip8 is in line with lower expectations, and Apple also plans to launch a passport-type foldable product in the second half of this year.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the peak of this bull market cycle is likely to be driven by institutional funds and ETFs outside of the United States. Currently, South Korea has not yet launched a spot Bitcoin ETF, retail investors cannot purchase overseas related ETFs, and companies are even unable to open trading platform accounts to buy BTC.Ki Young Ju believes that the market was primarily driven by the adoption of Bitcoin in the United States, but the next phase will shift towards global institutionalization, accompanied by deeper stablecoin liquidity and RWA infrastructure. More institutions will hold BTC as a strategic asset, and several countries that have not yet launched ETFs will gradually improve related investment channels. The peak of this cycle may occur when a banker from a local bank in South Korea recommends a spot Bitcoin ETF to an elderly woman, suggesting it for savings.

Justin Sun stated at the Bitcoin Asia 2026 conference in Hong Kong that the threat of quantum computing to blockchain and the entire financial system is widespread, and traditional banks like JPMorgan are also facing risks.Due to the highly decentralized nature of the Bitcoin community, which involves multiple participants such as miners, exchanges, and WBTC, reaching a consensus on quantum resistance will take a long time. Justin Sun mentioned that TRON has been developing quantum-resistant mechanisms over the past year, and in the first half of this year, they released a quantum-resistant address solution and launched it on the testnet, with plans to upgrade the entire network to a mainstream cryptocurrency network with quantum resistance capabilities by the end of this year.

Blockstream has released a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) proposing the SHRINCS post-quantum signature scheme. SHRINCS is a hash-based post-quantum signature scheme with a minimum size of 548 bytes, approximately 9 times larger than the existing Schnorr signatures, but much smaller than the NIST-approved ML-DSA and SPHINCS+ schemes. The scheme has completed production environment testing on the Liquid sidechain and includes a copy of the Bitcoin white paper.The scheme also has limitations. The BIP warns that security proofs are still pending, and the scheme is stateful, requiring the storage of used keys for each signature, which increases the signature size by 16 bytes with each use. In the event of device loss, approximately 5777 bytes are needed for a stateless fallback transaction recovery. Blockstream estimates that Bitcoin can maintain a speed of about 3 TPS after adopting SHRINCS, which can be increased to 6.7 TPS when combined with ZK proof aggregation.

According to The Block, StarkWare announced that the first quantum-resistant Bitcoin transaction has been successfully executed.StarkWare's Avihu Levy used signature aggregation technology to protect public key data while ensuring that transactions are secure in the Bitcoin mempool, thereby introducing a second layer of security to protect assets.

X account bitcoinarchive states that VanEck indicates all 12 quantitative signals show that the Bitcoin bear market has ended.VanEck also points out, "Saylor's strategy sell-off looks like a typical newspaper headline bottom."

According to The Block, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin has entered the early stages of a new bull market, but it still needs to close above the 365-day moving average of nearly $83,000 to gain "official" confirmation.The company also pointed out that the short-term market appears "overheated," with traders and whales taking profits, and the exchange inflow of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple has increased.

According to CoinDesk, Ethereum researchers have proposed rebuilding the validator deposit contract to support a new cryptographic system and ultimately stop accepting deposits protected by the existing BLS signatures. This proposal targets the deposit contract, aiming to add a switch that prevents the network from accepting the currently relied-upon signature format.Currently, the contract only accepts BLS keys because their exact size is hardcoded, while the new draft allows for different key sizes, with each deposit tagged by the cryptographic system used, where BLS receives a tag of zero, reserving space for future schemes.If the proposal is approved, it will initially operate with BLS deposits, while other schemes can be registered simultaneously. Future decisions may permanently disable new BLS deposits, at which point validators who have staked using BLS keys will not disappear, but new validators will not be able to join using this method. Ethereum will ultimately need to change separately to inform validators how to check new signatures. This is part of the migration for validators, while another part is already in progress—EIP-8141 framework transaction proposals will allow regular Ethereum accounts to change the cryptographic method for approving transactions without changing their address.The urgency stems from research released in March by Google's Quantum AI research department, which outlined five quantum attack paths against Ethereum, putting over $100 billion in assets at potential risk. The Ethereum Foundation is advancing core protocol changes with a target around 2029. Currently, the amount of ETH staked in Ethereum is approximately 42.4 million, valued at about $10.4 billion.

According to Newswire, IBM announced that it has completed the acquisition of HRL Laboratories, LLC, a leading research and development institution specializing in quantum computing, quantum sensing, advanced communications, electronics, manufacturing, and materials science. This acquisition also complements IBM's broader innovations and investments in the fields of quantum manufacturing and infrastructure.HRL's expertise in silicon-based quantum technology creates opportunities for future collaboration with IBM's pure quantum wafer fabrication plant, Anderon, supporting scalable manufacturing methods and accelerating the learning cycles of various quantum computing paradigms. Boeing and General Motors (the former owners of HRL) will continue to collaborate with IBM and HRL on quantum applications and advanced technology development. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Analysts at the cryptocurrency research firm CryptoQuant believe that Bitcoin has emerged from the bear market, but a short-term pullback may occur. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted on social media that Bitcoin has entered the early stage of a bull market and pointed out that the current trend is consistent with the market conditions before the last bull market.CryptoQuant's research shows that the inflow of funds to derivatives exchanges has resumed, confirming that traders have entered a risk-on mode, which has historically marked the beginning of a new bull market. The firm's analyst Theophiluspep stated that while Bitcoin is entering a bull market, spot demand, ETF fund flows, and market momentum have turned bullish, while high profit-taking, inflows to exchanges, and overbought conditions suggest a potential short-term cooling.Bitcoin continued to rise last week, increasing by 22% over the past 7 days, with the latest price at $78,716, briefly touching $81,160 on Monday. Previously, in June and July, Bitcoin mostly traded below $65,000. U.S. investors reversed direction last week and bought Bitcoin ETFs, achieving the best weekly performance since October, with data from Farside Investors showing that related funds managed by institutions such as BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, and Morgan Stanley saw an inflow of $1.9 billion in new funds. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury announced last week that it would at least double its long-term Treasury bond repurchase scale, leading to a decline in yields, with Bitcoin and gold rising in tandem.

CryptoQuant stated that after a 24% increase, key on-chain indicators and demand metrics for Bitcoin have turned bullish, entering the early stages of a new bull market. The agency's Bull Score index surged from 30 to 80 over the past week, reaching its highest level since October 2025, with 8 out of 10 indicators showing bullish signals.During the rise, Bitcoin briefly broke through $80,000, but CryptoQuant pointed out that a weekly closing price above the 365-day moving average (currently around $83,000) is needed to confirm the transition to a new bull market. LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger also stated that the next significant threshold for Bitcoin is the May 2026 high of $82,820; breaking this level would reinforce the view that a cycle bottom has formed and push the price towards $100,000 and even the historical high of 2025.Despite the bullish signals, CryptoQuant warned that the short-term rally may be overheating. The unrealized profit margin for traders reached 20.5%, the highest since June 2025; short-term holder whales realized about $1.2 billion in profits between August 20 and 22, with a record $614 million on August 20 alone. Bitcoin exchange inflows also rose to about 53,000 coins, the highest since June, indicating that more tokens are moving to trading platforms.