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first_img Italian Central Bank Study: Stablecoin Remittances Have No Systemic Cost Advantage, On-chain Components Only Account for a Small Portion

In a research report released by the Bank of Italy in July 2026, a "mystery shopper" empirical investigation was conducted for the first time, tracking 200 USDC transfers across ten corridors between Italy and Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, the UAE, and Japan. The results showed that the total cost of stablecoin remittances fluctuated greatly, with a minimum of only 0.3% and a maximum close to 9%. On-chain transfers accounted for an average of only 0.4%, with the bulk of costs concentrated in fiat withdrawal and deposit stages—traditional intermediary fees such as exchange buy-sell spreads, credit card fees, and withdrawal fees were the decisive factors. Compared to traditional channels like Wise, stablecoins have a cost advantage in some corridors like Brazil to Italy, but the costs are higher in corridors like UAE to Italy, showing a high degree of "corridor specificity."In terms of speed, blockchain transfers themselves take only a few minutes, but end-to-end efficiency entirely depends on the quality of the traditional payment infrastructure in the destination country. Countries with instant payment systems, such as Brazil (PIX), Italy (TIPS), and Argentina (Transferencias 3.0), can keep the entire process under 20 minutes; whereas countries like South Africa, which rely on traditional bank transfers, see the arrival time extended to 1 to 2 business days. The report pointed out that the efficiency of stablecoin remittances is jointly determined by their own infrastructure and the surrounding traditional payment infrastructure, with both being complementary rather than substitutive. The report also analyzed the impact of global regulatory fragmentation: the EU's MiCA and the US's GENIUS Act represent mature compliance frameworks; Japan's strict "safety first" access, while lowering nominal costs, complicates processes leading users to offshore platforms; countries like India and Turkey are in a transitional regulatory phase; while countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, with prohibitive measures, have failed to suppress demand, instead pushing transactions into gray channels.

VanEck: Bitcoin has triggered 8 surrender indicators, and the real buying advantage may need to wait for a one-year cycle

According to CoinDesk, the latest report from asset management company VanEck shows that Bitcoin has currently triggered 8 out of 12 market capitulation indicators, indicating that the market is approaching the historical bear market bottom area, but the related signals do not mean that the price has bottomed out. These indicators mainly measure the market status of Bitcoin during extreme sell-off phases, including the extent of price retracement from highs, miner profitability, and the proportion of holders at a loss. Over the past three months, all 12 indicators have reached the triggering range.VanEck pointed out that Bitcoin's previous rounds of major bottoms experienced maximum declines of approximately 94%, 85%, 84%, and 78%, during which the market lacked support from spot ETF funds, institutional holdings were relatively small, and there were impacts from major industry events such as Celsius and FTX. In contrast, the market structure has changed this time. From a cyclical perspective, VanEck has compiled 4 complete Bitcoin cycles since 2011 and found that bear markets typically last about 11 months on average from peak to trough; if excluding the special cycle of 2011, the average is about 12.7 months. Currently, Bitcoin has entered the 10th month since its peak in October 2025, and the next potential accumulation window may appear between September and November of this year.VanEck concluded that the current capitulation indicators are more suitable as tools for long-term investors to assess the cycle position rather than short-term bottom-fishing signals. Historical data shows that the advantages of investing based on these indicators are mainly reflected within a one-year cycle, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the coming months.

Trump's eldest son is associated with Kalshi and Polymarket, raising concerns about conflicts of interest and information advantages

According to Fortune, the Trump family is accelerating its entry into the prediction market space, with the Trump Media Technology Group developing a prediction market platform called TruthPredict, allowing users to trade prediction contracts related to significant events. The company has also launched the Truth API, providing Wall Street with quick data access to Truth Social content. Additionally, Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of Trump, currently serves as a strategic advisor to Kalshi, and his venture capital firm 1789 Capital has invested in competitor Polymarket and joined the advisory board of Polymarket. This means the Trump family is simultaneously associated with the two major prediction market platforms, while the Trump Media Group is building its own prediction market business.Although there is currently no public evidence showing that Donald Trump Jr. or the Trump family is trading on government insider information, the potential conflicts of interest arising from the intertwining of presidential public information, market trading, and family business interests are drawing external attention. Federal agencies are still investigating whether former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez used advance knowledge of Trump's speech content to trade in related markets on Kalshi. The team of Donald Trump Jr. and the Trump Media Technology Group have yet to formally respond to requests for comments regarding insider trading related to the prediction market.

Analysis: The average time from Tether's freeze proposal to execution exceeds 2 hours, allowing high-risk addresses to transfer funds by taking advantage of the time difference

FlashRescue co-founder @DarcyAri posted on the X platform that recently, during a joint investigation with partners on a case, Tether experienced a transfer of funds from one address during the execution of a proposal to freeze addresses, resulting in a decrease in the frozen amount. Further review by FlashRescue revealed that this is not an isolated incident. As of August 3, 2026, through an analysis of 2,955 Tether freeze events on the Ethereum and Tron networks, it was found that among addresses involved in risks such as entity sanctions, fraudulent activities, money laundering, FATF blacklist jurisdictions, and malicious attacks: 60 addresses cleared their assets and completed front-running transfers before the formal execution of the freeze, with a total net outflow of 20,429,847 USDT, starting transfers an average of 13 minutes and 59 seconds after the freeze proposal was submitted, and completing the main fund transfers within 15 minutes and 15 seconds; additionally, 113 addresses transferred some assets before the freeze was executed, involving approximately 35,524,300 USDT.The average time from the submission of the freeze proposal to the formal execution of the freeze by Tether is 2 hours, 16 minutes, and 15 seconds, indicating a long time window between the public announcement of the freeze proposal and its actual execution. On July 3, a cluster of addresses transferred funds continuously within minutes and then split the transfers to the same address. The above cases suggest that some high-risk addresses may be actively monitoring Tether freeze proposals and utilizing the time difference between the public announcement of the proposal and the actual effectiveness of the freeze to implement front-running transfers. This mechanism leads to the failure of freezing the involved funds and undermines the actual effectiveness of sanctions, anti-money laundering, and law enforcement cooperation measures.
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