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Next week's macro outlook: Waller's congressional hearing coincides with CPI, and the market anticipates more clues on interest rate prospects

According to Jinshi reports, the tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated sharply this week, with mutual attacks leading to the collapse of a fragile ceasefire agreement that had lasted for about three weeks. The inflationary pressure driven by rising oil prices has reignited expectations for the Federal Reserve to tighten its policies. During the same period, U.S. stocks largely ignored geopolitical uncertainties, with the "AI trading" frenzy regaining momentum, as the S&P 500 index approached an all-time high, and both it and the Nasdaq recorded a consecutive weekly gain. SK Hynix's ADR surged 13% on its first day, with a fundraising amount of $26.5 billion, making it the highest fundraising foreign company IPO in U.S. stock market history.In the coming week, the U.S.-Iran situation, U.S. CPI and other economic data, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials will capture Wall Street's attention. There is particular anticipation for whether Federal Reserve Chairman Waller can provide more clues about the interest rate outlook under questioning in Congress, although his determination to cancel forward guidance leaves little room for optimism. The macro data events for next week are as follows:MondayFederal Reserve Governor Waller speaksTuesdayU.S. ADP employment change for the week ending June 27U.S. June CPI and core CPIFederal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the House Financial Services Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearingWednesday2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee participates in a fireside chatU.S. June PPI and core PPIFOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams speaksFederal Reserve Chairman Waller attends the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee "Federal Reserve Semiannual Monetary Policy Report" hearingFederal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditionsThursdayU.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, U.S. June retail sales month-on-month, U.S. July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan speaksFederal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson speaks on the economy and monetary policy

Netflix is filming a romantic comedy movie themed around cryptocurrency titled "One Attempt Remaining."

Netflix recently announced the official start of filming the cryptocurrency-themed romantic comedy film "One Attempt Remaining," marking the first time the crypto industry enters the mainstream Hollywood spotlight in a light-hearted comedic form. The film is directed by Kay Cannon and stars Golden Globe winner Jennifer Garner, with a plot revolving around a pair of ex-couples racing against time to recover their cryptocurrency wallet password.Industry insiders point out that in the past, cryptocurrencies were often associated with crime, money laundering, or speculative bubbles in film and television works, leading to a negative image, and they mostly appeared in independent films or niche genres. As cryptocurrency technology gradually moves into the mainstream and public awareness increases, this singular narrative is slowly changing.Several filmmakers and Web3 practitioners believe that the lack of deep integration of cryptocurrency into daily life is a significant reason for its long absence from mainstream screens. However, as the concepts of tokenization of real-world assets, cryptocurrency payments, and wallets become more understood by the public, film and television works are beginning to attempt to make the blockchain mechanism itself the core of their narratives.Industry expectations suggest that if cryptocurrency plays a more important role in the global economy in the future, its themes will appear more frequently in commercial films, adventure films, and heist movies, and the on-screen image of cryptocurrency is expected to move from the "gray area" to a more three-dimensional and diverse representation.

Well-known Wall Street bears are pessimistic about the 2026 market and anticipate that the Federal Reserve will accelerate interest rate cuts

The market research firm BCA Research, led by well-known Wall Street bear Peter Berezin, has released a new report titled "Return of Nasdog," offering a cautious outlook on the market. Its core viewpoint is that the artificial intelligence boom will come to an end, while U.S. economic activity will significantly slow down.BCA Research states that the issue of excessive investment in the AI sector should have already manifested, with investments in the U.S. technology and software sectors reaching 4.4% of GDP by 2025, close to the levels seen during the internet bubble. Given that the annual depreciation rate for AI assets is typically around 20%, this means that tech giants will face an annual depreciation cost of $400 billion, which exceeds their total profits for 2025.BCA Research also mentions that the expected price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index at the beginning of 2026 will be as high as 22.6 times, well above the historical median of 18 times. The already fragile stock market will find it even harder to sustain itself under the impact of the collapse of the optimistic narrative surrounding AI. BCA Research predicts that "in the second half of 2026, nearly all sectors of the U.S. stock market will experience a crash." However, this will also prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate its rate cuts in the second half of 2026, with the federal funds rate expected to drop to 2.25% by the end of 2026, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds falling to 3.1%.

10x Research: Bitcoin maintains range-bound fluctuations on the surface, while the derivatives market anticipates significant volatility

According to the 10x Research report, Bitcoin's price has shown limited fluctuations recently, but the pricing in the derivatives market has begun to reflect potential significant market changes.The report points out several structural signals in the market: volatility is being bought rather than sold, option skew has shifted back towards downside protection, funding rates have decreased, futures open interest is showing divergence, and there is a continued net outflow from ETFs. The report believes that although the market appears stable at first glance, the funding positions and pricing structure indicate that the market is preparing for unexpected events. Bulls typically view the rebuilding of the U.S. Treasury general account, the end of quantitative tightening, and potential interest rate cuts as liquidity positives, but if the market structure lacks consistent support, macro expectations are unlikely to drive a sustained trend. 10x Research notes that merely having liquidity is not enough to create directional trends; it is still necessary to observe whether leverage levels, position structures, and trading flows are synchronized. This weekly report covers Bitcoin and Ethereum's derivatives positions, volatility trends, funding rates, ETF and stablecoin flows, options activity, as well as potential ranges and key catalysts for the next 1 to 2 weeks.
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