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CoinShares: Bitcoin shows resilience, but inflation pressure in the United States still limits market upside potential

CoinShares released a report indicating that Bitcoin has shown relative strength this week against the backdrop of renewed volatility in the risk asset market, primarily due to a rebound in spot buying, improved stock market sentiment, and some short covering. Overall, the market is gradually reducing its enthusiasm for the AI narrative and is instead focusing more on whether corporate earnings can meet expectations.The poor performance of some U.S. corporate earnings reports has triggered significant stock price fluctuations, which have also affected Bitcoin to some extent, but it still demonstrates strong resilience overall. Meanwhile, macroeconomic signals in the U.S. remain mixed, with the housing market continuing to weaken. In terms of interest rates, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at the meeting on October 28. The market's expectations for another rate hike in December remain high, with the related probability close to 83%.The weakness in the housing market provides some room for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes, but last week's higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicate that inflation remains a key factor limiting a shift in policy. If the Federal Reserve unexpectedly raises rates next week, it could trigger more pronounced financial market volatility due to exceeding market expectations; in contrast, maintaining interest rates and continuing to release hawkish signals would be easier for the market to digest. Overall, the current market remains in a state of intertwining bullish and bearish factors. Improved spot demand, Bitcoin's enhanced ability to withstand stock market volatility, and the cooling housing market all provide some support for the market; however, inflationary pressures have not yet dissipated, limiting the Federal Reserve's room to ease policy. The subsequent trend of Bitcoin is expected to remain highly influenced by interest rate expectations and the overall liquidity environment, with the importance of single industry or market catalysts being relatively limited.

Bitwise: Bitcoin's implied volatility has dropped to a three-year low, and long-term holders continue to distribute chips

Bitwise released a report indicating that Bitcoin is currently holding resiliently around $82,000, a price level close to the spot ETF holding cost. Key support levels below include the short-term holder cost price of approximately $74,800 and the real market average of about $77,600. The former can serve as a reference for judging the short-term market direction, while the latter corresponds to the price level at which half of the invested capital in the market is in profit or loss. The price range formed by these two points may become the dividing line between bulls and bears.The trading range for Bitcoin over the past 30 days and 60 days has narrowed to 1.8% and 3.0%, respectively, with the implied volatility at-the-money for each term also approaching the lower end of the distribution range over the past three years. Among them, the 3-month and 6-month implied volatility are at the 0.8 and 0.2 percentiles of historical distribution, indicating that the market's pricing for future volatility has dropped to extremely low levels.So far this week, net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have reached $1.074 billion, rising in sync with the cumulative trading volume of the spot market, providing support for Bitcoin prices and offsetting some macro pressures. However, realized profits in the market have also increased, particularly among long-term holders. Meanwhile, the net position change indicator for long-term holders is negative, suggesting they may be in a distribution phase, which could be one reason for the ongoing consolidation of Bitcoin prices.

first_img Heatbit launched the $899 Bitwater component, heating water while mining Bitcoin

Heatbit, which previously launched a heater with a built-in Bitcoin mining machine, has announced the release of a heating element for water heaters named Bitwater. This element replaces the resistance wire in standard electric water heater elements with 20 Bitcoin mining chips, using the heat generated by the chips to directly heat the water in the tank. Heatbit stated that this electricity was originally intended for heating water, "the same heat, the same electricity, plus Bitcoin." The company claims that global households use approximately 300 TWh of electricity annually for heating water, which exceeds the entire Bitcoin network's consumption of about 170 TWh, advocating for the decentralization of mining to households.Bitwater uses 20 Bitmain BM1370 chips, with a maximum hash rate of 34 TH/s, a maximum power consumption of 600 watts, and an energy efficiency of 12 joules/TH. Due to water cooling, this element requires no fans and produces no noise. The installation process is DIY: turn off the circuit breaker, drain the tank, unscrew the old element, and then screw in the Bitwater using the included wrench. It is compatible with the one-inch standard interface of 30 to 80-gallon electric water heaters commonly found in the United States and Canada, including brands such as A. O. Smith, Rheem, Bradford White, Whirlpool, and GE, without the need for plumbing modifications or additional circuits.Users can check water temperature, hash rate, and earnings through an app, and choose to mine individually or join a mining pool, with mined Bitcoin sent to an address controlled by the user. The initial "genesis batch" pre-order price is $899, with subsequent batches priced up to $1,299, and pre-orders are refundable, with plans to ship in the first quarter of 2027. Heatbit claims to have tested the entire winter in four and five-person households in New York and Florida. Based on the current hash price of approximately $36.73/PH/s/day, the full load of 34 TH/s could mine Bitcoin worth about $1.25 per day, totaling approximately $455 annually.

Bloomberg: South Korea's stock market becomes the first trillion-dollar market to fall below a price-to-earnings ratio of 5

According to Bloomberg data, the expected price-to-earnings ratio of South Korea's KOSPI index for the next 12 months has fallen to 4.2 times, becoming the first trillion-dollar market on record to drop below the 5 times threshold. Among the 18 markets with a market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion dollars at the beginning of this year, this situation has never occurred with a benchmark index before.The cooling of the AI boom has triggered a sell-off in technology stocks, putting pressure on the South Korean stock market. Although South Korea's exports are approaching 1 trillion dollars, the demand for chips from SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics remains strong, but investors are still unwilling to pay higher valuations for the earnings of related companies. The valuation of the South Korean stock market is now close to that of the Indonesian market, which is facing the risk of an MSCI downgrade, with the discount level further widening. Bloomberg comments that extremely low valuations may create space for future valuation recovery. If sentiment turns, South Korean stocks are expected to outperform other markets in the short term, but it is uncertain when the recovery will start and whether there will be further declines; a low price-to-earnings ratio itself does not mean that it has already hit bottom.

first_img The State Council issued an opinion to mitigate the impact of artificial intelligence applications on employment substitution

On October 23, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Adapting to the Development of Artificial Intelligence Technology to Support the Construction of Employment-Friendly Development Models" (Guo Ban Fa [2026] No. 29). The document proposes to adapt to the development of artificial intelligence technology, enhance the positive effects of job creation, empower traditional positions, and mitigate the impact of job replacement.The opinions point out that the role of artificial intelligence should be leveraged to improve the employment environment, enhance occupational safety levels, and improve work quality and efficiency, with priority given to promoting applications in positions with labor shortages and high-risk environments; it is essential to cautiously manage the scope, intensity, and pace of artificial intelligence applications in labor-intensive industries to minimize the impact on workers. The document also encourages enterprises to explore the establishment of an unemployment buffer period system, to inform affected workers in advance during the large-scale promotion of artificial intelligence applications, and to provide support for job transition and transformation.The opinions also outline deployments in areas such as strengthening job creation effects, constructing employment-friendly upgrade paths, enhancing workers' digital literacy and employment capabilities, promoting artificial intelligence-enabled employment policy services, improving workers' rights protection and social security, and perfecting employment monitoring, early warning, and risk response mechanisms. The document is dated October 16, 2026, and is marked for public release.

Information Technology "15th Five-Year" Plan: By 2030, the national blockchain network will be basically completed

On October 23, the Central Cybersecurity and Informatization Commission issued the "National Informatization 14th Five-Year Plan." The plan proposes that by 2030, significant progress will be made in our country's informatization, with its role in promoting Chinese-style modernization becoming more prominent. The information infrastructure will consolidate and expand its leading advantages, a three-dimensional network system encompassing land, sea, air, and space will be basically formed, a new generation of communication networks will be fully established, the commercial use of the sixth generation of mobile communication (6G) will be launched in a timely manner, and the national blockchain network will be basically established, with intelligent internet development accelerating.The plan also states that the innovation capability of cybersecurity technology will be significantly enhanced, the technological innovation system will be more complete, and breakthroughs will be achieved in key core technologies in key areas. The cybersecurity industry ecosystem will prosper and develop, with deep integration of digital technology and the real economy, and the comprehensive strength of cybersecurity enterprises will be significantly enhanced. The level of digital, networked, and intelligent applications in economic and social development will reach a new level, empowering economic and social development and significantly improving governance capabilities. Cybersecurity guarantees will be solid and powerful, the legal and regulatory standards system will be more complete, and the concept of a community with a shared future in cyberspace will be deeply rooted in people's hearts.

Gate founder and CEO Dr. Han: Gate Money makes buying coffee with stocks a reality, aiming to double the user base within one to two years

According to the latest episode of the Gatecast podcast, Gate founder and CEO Dr. Han shared the product philosophy and future plans of Gate Money. He stated that Gate is extending years of accumulated experience into the fields of asset management and daily payments, reaching a broader user base, with the goal of doubling the user scale of Gate Money in the next one to two years.Leveraging the technical systems, institutional clients, and market-making liquidity accumulated from years of trading operations, Gate supports the exchange between various types of assets; relying on a global licensing layout and partnerships with banks and payment networks, Gate Money creates conditions for users' fund collection, payment, and consumption applications. These capabilities collectively form the operational foundation of Gate Money, enabling the platform to reduce exchange and fund circulation costs in different usage scenarios.Through various capabilities such as holding, exchanging, appreciating, and paying, Gate Money connects multiple types of assets with life needs. Dr. Han illustrated the consumption use of assets beyond investment by using the example of "buying coffee with stocks." In eligible regions, users can open bank accounts in their own names, using familiar payment methods, with transfers processed by underlying blockchain technology; idle funds can also participate in appreciation through yield products.Looking ahead, Dr. Han also shared the application prospects of AI Agent providing round-the-clock assistance in asset allocation and fund management. With the integration of investment, wealth management, and daily payments, Gate Money will continue to expand the application boundaries of various assets, promoting Gate's services deeper into more everyday life scenarios.

first_img Tiger Research: Predicting that the market is becoming a macro data infrastructure

Research institution Tiger Research researcher Ryan Yoon released the final report of the prediction market series, discussing whether prediction markets have practical utility. The report states that participants bear the judgment results with funds, and prices are updated in real-time with new information, forming probability distributions comparable to traditional polls, expert surveys, and economic forecasts; prediction markets have expanded from sports and election predictions to macroeconomic and geopolitical data infrastructure.The report lists that Google Finance, CNBC, CNN, and The Wall Street Journal have displayed prediction market probabilities, and the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange, along with the electronic bond trading platform Tradeweb, distributes relevant data to institutional clients. A working paper from the Federal Reserve Board describes the prediction market Kalshi as a high-frequency, continuously updated benchmark with rich information distribution. The paper states that Kalshi's median and mode predictions for the federal funds rate recorded perfectly the day before the FOMC meeting and significantly outperformed federal funds futures during that period; compared to Bloomberg consensus, it is more accurate for overall CPI and statistically similar for core CPI and unemployment rate.The report also cites research from the Iowa Electronic Markets: in five U.S. presidential elections from 1988 to 2004, and in a comparison of 964 polls, it was more accurate in 74% of cases; the average voting share error one week before the election was 1.5 percentage points, lower than Gallup's final poll of 2.1 percentage points. The report suggests that the platform needs to deepen liquidity to resist manipulation, communicate with regulatory agencies, and position itself as a monitoring tool while maintaining open transparency and data supported by independent research.
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