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According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_, the current reading of the Bitcoin UTXO profit and loss ratio model has fallen into a historically low range, indicating that the market is undergoing a deeper internal cleanup.However, the analyst emphasizes that this does not mean the bottom has been confirmed— the 365-day moving average needs to decline further to prove that the market's long-term profit structure has been fully reset, rather than just a short-term oversold reaction. Although a brief rebound may occur due to a short squeeze, it should not be seen as a structural recovery signal if the profit and loss ratio fails to sustain its reconstruction.Overall, signs of internal cleanup in BTC are beginning to emerge, but historical patterns suggest that the market may still need to endure more pressure before fully emerging from this bear market.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua posted that the current Bitcoin trend represents the third wave of decline since the peak of 1011. According to volatility theory and cyclical patterns, this may be the final major drop.Yi Lihua pointed out that the main influencing factors for this round of decline include the performance of the U.S. stock market and Strategy, while closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's response to CPI data to see if it will change interest rate cut or hike expectations, which could trigger a continued pullback in the U.S. stock market. Additionally, black swan or explosive events often occur at the tail end of past bear markets, which have not yet appeared and still require ongoing observation.He believes that based on Bitcoin's peak of $126,000, a 60% drop would bring it down to about $51,000, and a 66% drop would bring it down to about $43,000. Regardless of where the final bottom lies, July and August may be the last bottoming area of this cycle and the most noteworthy time window for bottom fishing in the next three years.

According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Bitcoin unspent transaction output (UTXO) data shows that the proportion of loss transactions to profit transactions in the current market has dropped to the lowest level of this bear market cycle, indicating that investors are entering a clear "surrender" phase.This indicator has previously triggered multiple times at historical cycle bottom areas. The last similar low occurred during the mid-2023 deep phase of the bear market, when the Bitcoin price briefly fell to around $26,000. Analysts believe that such phases usually correspond to extremely low market sentiment, with long-term investors gradually starting to accumulate again.Darkfost pointed out that this is the first time this signal has been triggered since the start of the current correction, indicating that the number of UTXOs sold at a loss is significantly increasing, reflecting a broader sell-off and surrender behavior that has begun. He also added that the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders' Bitcoin is gradually entering negative territory.

Crypto KOL Ansem posted a bullish outlook on the SOL/ETH exchange rate for trading. Ansem stated, "The bottom for Solana has been reached, I was the first to say it! Now everyone is extremely pessimistic about SOL, just like when it dropped to $8 in 2023. I think buying SOL at the current price with a holding period of over 6 months is a good deal."

With the current price of Bitcoin at $59,291 and a 200-day dollar-cost averaging (C200) of $75,821, the Bitcoin Ahr999 "bottom-fishing" indicator is currently at 0.285. The previous low this year was 0.27 on February 6.According to statistics, an Ahr999 below 0.3 is a rare case of extreme undervaluation, mainly occurring during significant market crashes or moments of panic. Historically, there have been the following major instances of falling below 0.3:In November 2011, when the price of Bitcoin was only in single digits and had not yet reached widespread consensus;The bottom of the bear market in 2018 (lowest around 0.24);The "March 16 flash crash" in 2020 (COVID panic);In June 2022, during the ETH liquidation crash and the FTX crash in November, it touched around 0.27 multiple times;In February 2026, it reached 0.27-0.29, close to historical lows.It is reported that this indicator assists Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging users in making investment decisions in conjunction with timing strategies. This indicator implies the short-term yield of Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging and the deviation of Bitcoin prices from expected valuations. Historically, the Ahr999 index has been below the bottom line (0.45) for 655 days.

Renowned analyst PlanB stated that Bitcoin is likely to bottom out only after falling below the realized price (around $53,000), just like what happened in previous bear markets. Currently, the curve representing the realized price has been almost overlapping with the black curve representing the 200-week geometric moving average since 2023.

Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of the Liebit mining pool, stated that the current mNAV of Strategy has fallen to 0.72, close to the low of 0.7 set during the last bear market in May 2022. Based on recent market sentiment events such as the decoupling of STRC, it is judged that we are currently in the bottom area of the mNAV for this cycle. mNAV often leads BTC prices to bottom out by about 6 months, and based on the "four-year cycle" and the decreasing volatility model, this round of Bitcoin bear market may bottom out between October and December 2026, with a target price range of $42,000 to $44,000. Jiang Zhuoer indicated that his recent short-term strategy remains focused on selling spot and shorting, and will switch to buying spot and going long once the expected bottom arrives.

Analyst Murphy stated that there is strong support around $60,000 before and after the expiration of Bitcoin options on June 26, making it difficult to break below that level easily. In the corresponding Gamma chart, the range of $59,000 to $62,000 shows a clear positive Gamma, and the hedging behavior of market makers will suppress volatility, making it easier for the price to be fixed in that area. At the same time, there is a significant accumulation of Put options with a strike price of $60,000, totaling up to 4,620 BTC, forming a strong Put wall that will generate substantial buying power and provide solid support as the price approaches. Historically, when similar options structures have appeared, they often correspond to phase bottoms or the end of pullback stages. Analyst Murphy believes that $60,000 remains a strong support level in the short term and is cautiously optimistic about the short-term market performance.

10x Research released the latest market report indicating that Bitcoin traders have long misunderstood the indicators of "global money supply" and "global liquidity," while the trend of the US dollar is one of the important factors affecting Bitcoin prices. 10x Research pointed out that the US dollar is currently strengthening from multiple dimensions, and historical experience shows that a strong dollar is usually unfavorable for Bitcoin. Its dollar model has only triggered 6 sell signals since 2011, with the last one occurring in November 2025, followed by several months of continuous decline in Bitcoin prices.The report also stated that the global liquidity indicator, which circulated widely in the crypto community last year, was misused by the market. According to its research framework, this indicator issued a buy signal in early March this year and a sell signal at the end of April, and the team has calculated the next possible triggering time window. 10x Research stated that the report combines the trend of the US dollar, global liquidity, and other macro driving factors to analyze the potential time and value ranges for the low point of this bear market, and believes that the time window corresponding to the low point of Bitcoin's current cycle is gradually approaching.

After reaching a new low of about $59,000 in 2026, Bitcoin has closed above $63,000 for three consecutive weeks, indicating that the technical structure remains relatively solid. This trend is similar to the bottoming pattern observed before the trend reversal in the previous bear market phase.Data shows that Bitcoin futures open interest has decreased by 19.5% from the June high, the funding rate has dropped from 0.1% at the beginning of June to 0.02%, and approximately $540 million has flowed out of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the past two weeks, a significant slowdown compared to the $5.5 billion outflow in the previous month. These figures suggest that the market is releasing excess selling pressure while still maintaining proximity to key support zones.From the weekly chart, Bitcoin's current movement is similar to that from late 2022 to early 2023. At that time, the weekly RSI entered oversold territory and rebounded, forming higher lows, while the price created lower lows, resulting in a bullish divergence and becoming a key turning point before the upward trend in 2023. The current market is focused on the $63,000 area, where Bitcoin has formed a positive RSI divergence near this level, and has closed above $63,000 multiple times on a weekly basis, keeping the price above the recent low of $59,000.In terms of on-chain data, analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that long-term holders have realized supply recently rising to 12.42 million BTC, indicating that supply continues to mature and flow to stronger holders. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin selling pressure indicator has remained inactive for 1,256 days, marking the longest period on record, suggesting that Bitcoin may be stabilizing near a potential cycle low.

Analyst Gaah cited CryptoQuant data stating that the Bitcoin cycle momentum indicator shows that the current bear market has not yet ended. This indicator has not risen above the neutral zone (0), so the bear market continues. The indicator has reached the -30 point range, which historically is a deep area for forming cyclical bottoms. Historically, this range (-30) has constituted a major support level for BTC. However, to confirm a trend reversal, the price must form a bullish pattern while the indicator breaks through the neutral zone.

Crypto analyst Lark Davis pointed out that the current reading of the Bitcoin Puell Multiple indicator shows that the market is nearing or is in the bottom area of this cycle. This indicator measures miners' profitability by tracking the ratio of daily miner revenue to the 365-day average. Historically, when miner income remains low and they are forced to sell BTC to cover operating costs, it often corresponds to cycle lows.Davis stated that although the indicator has not yet reached the green oversold zone, signals of pressure on miners have already appeared, which historically usually marks the beginning of the end of a bear market. He also noted that the price signals in this cycle are overall milder compared to historical patterns. Davis believes that whether $59,000 can hold as the low point of this cycle will be revealed in the coming months, but current signs are becoming clearer.

According to an analysis of the latest leaked data by WIRED, the secretive society Dialog, co-founded by Peter Thiel, has an extremely ruthless and biased "grading and elimination" mechanism.Dialog implements a secret rule of "rating upon entry." Although the club has thousands of members, only 192 personal profiles (including 130 formal members and some candidates) were leaked and reviewed by WIRED. They reveal the club's counterintuitive hierarchy of disdain: C-level is the highest VIP, B-level is the overwhelming majority of ordinary members, while the A-level, usually regarded as the best, is actually the least known bottom tier.This rating is directly tied to members' wallets. Only about 25% of VIP "C" level big shots are required to pay the full attendance fee, while among the bottom "A" level members, the proportion paying the full attendance fee of tens of thousands of dollars is as high as 70%.Ironically, the AI screening mechanism introduced by Dialog is extremely superstitious about so-called "national recognition." For example, actor Josh Brolin, who played "Thanos," has never attended but wins VIP "C" level status due to box office success and millions of fans; meanwhile, academic giant Tyler Cowen was deemed "not famous enough among ordinary people" by the AI and nearly classified into the ordinary tier, only barely promoted to C-level through human intervention.The "value-added points" serve as a scythe for eliminating "useless people," specifically measuring members' resource connections and intellectual contributions to other club giants. After each gathering, staff review members' performances like "code review," and those with too low value-added points, cultural mismatches, or declining visibility will be ruthlessly removed from the invitation list.Additionally, the leaked database also exposed its built-in social and dating matching system (10% of members join the singles pool), which has a "no-match list" while recommending pairings.This so-called objective assessment system is also filled with biases: women make up one-third of the members but only receive 18% of VIP seats; politically, it is even harder to escape differential treatment. Although more than half of the members identify as "left-leaning," the probability of "right-leaning" members obtaining VIP status is more than twice that of left-leaning members, and even the "left-leaning" label of an environmental leader was forcibly rewritten to "right-leaning" by staff in the background.

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that the net holdings of long-term holders (LTH) have reached a new historical high. As of June 17, the net holding amount of LTH reached 14.96 million BTC, an increase of 20,000 BTC compared to the peak formed on March 27. This is also the second time that LTH net holdings have reached a new high since BTC entered the bear market. More and more BTC are unwilling to participate in short-term speculation and turnover, with 75% of the total circulating supply held by LTH.He believes that historically, the bottom of each bear market usually appears after the net holdings of LTH begin to rise, meaning that there is first a "holding recovery," followed by a "bottom formation." In the last cycle, LTH net holdings experienced three new highs, corresponding to three strong distributions, which occurred during the periods of the Federal Reserve releasing interest rate hike expectations, the Luna crash, and the FTX collapse. This cycle has currently reached a new high for the second time. He believes that the key is not how many times a new high is reached, but whether the scale of previous LTH distributions shows a clear downward trend. If this distribution scale is lower than the last time, it indicates that selling pressure is gradually exhausting, and the true bottom of the bear market may have already formed or is not far off.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin may have entered a new accumulation zone, but the potential structural bottom of this cycle is still around $48,000. Currently, the seller risk ratio after Bitcoin's adjustment first entered the red zone when it fell below $60,000, indicating that the volume of loss supply has begun to exceed the volume of profit supply, and the unrealized pressure on holders has significantly increased.On the other hand, the Cumulative Value Destruction Day (CVDD) valuation model shows that the structural bottom of Bitcoin's current cycle is around $48,000. Axel Adler Jr. summarized that historically similar zones often correspond to market capitulation phases and bottom formation processes, such as the cycle lows in 2019 and 2023. However, it remains to be seen whether the price can hold the $60,000 area, while the seller risk ratio smooth line continues to rise. Although the price of Bitcoin has rebounded to around $66,000, the market is still at the lower end of the valuation range, and caution is still needed regarding the final confirmation process of the cycle bottom.

Wintermute released its weekly market report, stating that as of the week ending June 15, the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, along with CPI data, has boosted market risk appetite. Wintermute believes that the risk-reward ratio for Bitcoin at just over $60,000 is quite attractive; each sell-off eliminates weak holders, leaving a group with higher quality holdings and stronger conviction. However, this does not mean that a bottom has been established. Before the situation truly improves, it is not impossible to fall into the $50,000 range. Currently, the position structure has been somewhat cleared, and net selling pressure has eased. What really needs attention is the flow of funds, rather than prices or news headlines.The real turning point in the last cycle was the continuous growth of inflows into ETFs and stablecoins, and there are currently no signs of this. Therefore, blindly chasing any upward trend is futile. In the short term, Waller's speech on Wednesday is key. If dovish sentiment indicates a softening of core rates and a drop in oil prices, the market will welcome good news; if hawkish sentiment suggests rates rising to 4.2%, the good news will end. Besides that, the agreement signed between the U.S. and Iran in Switzerland on Friday is the truly important event.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that the Bitcoin Sell-Side Risk Ratio (SSRR) entered the red zone for the first time when BTC dropped to $60,000, with the volume of losses exceeding the volume of profits, reflecting the deep pressure on holders. Historically, when this indicator enters the red zone, it often coincides with the formation of a bottom.Meanwhile, the CVDD valuation model shows that the structural bottom is around $48,300, a level that has almost never been closed below in Bitcoin's history. Currently, Bitcoin has rebounded to $66,000, and the smoothed SSRR has begun to turn upward. Analysts believe that $60,000 is a behavioral pressure zone, while $48,000 is the boundary for structural risk. The subsequent confirmation of recovery signals is when the smoothed SSRR exits the red zone and the price stabilizes above $60,000; the main risk is the emergence of new red signals at lower levels and testing the $48,000 support. Overall, the market is gradually shifting towards an accumulation pattern.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, at the beginning of February, a whale that spent 500 million dollars to buy the dip on BTC and ETH took profits. Ten days ago, it bought 29,000 ETH at a price of 1,609 dollars (46.67 million dollars), and sold it early this morning, making a profit of 6.43 million dollars (+14%).

According to CoinDesk, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong stated that he "intuitively believes" Bitcoin (BTC) may have completed a phase of bottoming out around $60,000, but emphasized that there is still uncertainty in the market. In a video posted on social media, Armstrong mentioned that Bitcoin may have formed a phase low around $60,000 and referred to the historical four-year halving cycle, which typically corresponds to market bottom ranges.He stated, "I still have a long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin and believe the price will be significantly higher in the future." He referred to Bitcoin as "digital gold" and indicated that by 2030, the price could be far above current levels.In this round of market activity, Bitcoin briefly fell to about $59,700 on June 5, and then rebounded to above $66,000, driven by macro-positive factors such as the preliminary peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 3%. Armstrong's views resonate with those of some on-chain analysis firms.CryptoQuant previously pointed out that Bitcoin has entered a historical value range close to its realized price (about $53,600), but ETF capital flows have not yet stabilized completely, and the demand side recovery will still take time. Analysts generally believe that although the price may be close to the bottom range, "bottoming out" and "trend reversal" are still two different stages that require further confirmation from macro and capital flow data.